BILL Holdings, Inc. research snapshot
BILL AI stock analysis currently reads BILL Holdings as a cloud financial operations platform for small and midsize businesses that is roughly GAAP-profitable, generates strong free cash flow, and is executing an aggressive AI-led restructuring. As of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, the last verified close was $45.13 on July 31, 2026, with a market capitalization near $4.49 billion and an intraday quote around $46.60 on August 3. The AI score is 63 out of 100. The stock has reclaimed both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages after a strong rebound from the June 2026 low, but it remains about 21% below the 52-week high of $57.21. The central question is whether the up to 30% workforce reduction, leadership changes, and AI product push can convert improving margins into durable GAAP earnings growth without hurting customer retention. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$45.13
Market cap
$4.49 billion
AI score
63 / 100
Rating
GAAP-profitable SMB fintech in an AI-led restructuring with improving cash flow and a positive technical trend
Trend status
Short-term bullish above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, still below the 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | BILL provides an integrated financial operations platform for SMBs covering AP, AR, expense management, and payment workflows, with a large addressable market and a sticky customer base once fully adopted. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from workflow integration with accounting software, payment rails, switching costs from embedded processes, and brand trust with SMB customers. Intuit QuickBooks, Tipalti, SAP Concur, and in-house solutions keep competitive pressure. The moat is improving as BILL adds more platform modules and AI agents. | Medium |
| Management | Founder CEO Rene Lacerte has led the company since 2006 and remains focused on the SMB customer. Management is executing an AI-first restructuring with a workforce reduction of up to 30%, a reshaped executive team, and a $1 billion buyback, which signals confidence but also carries execution risk. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue grew about 13% to $1.46 billion and GAAP net income turned positive at $23.8 million. TTM revenue through March 2026 is about $1.60 billion. Q3 FY2026 revenue was $406.6 million with GAAP net income of $12.8 million, and TTM free cash flow reached about $382.9 million. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $45.13 and about $2.64 consensus FY2026 non-GAAP EPS, BILL trades near 17x forward earnings, about 2.8x sales, about 11.7x free cash flow, and about 1.2x book value. The GAAP trailing P/E is not meaningful because TTM GAAP earnings are near breakeven. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock rallied about 48% off the June 18, 2026 low of $31.41 to a late-July peak near $48, then pulled back to $45.13 at the July 31 close. Price is above the 50-day moving average near $38.56 and the 200-day moving average near $43.86, with RSI near 63.6. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high. The stock is high beta, has an elevated implied volatility near 80%, carries short interest near 12.9% of float, and faces SMB macro sensitivity, intense Intuit competition, and execution risk from a workforce cut of up to 30%. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive financial analysis and calculation verification, lower for exact price outcomes because SMB fintech sentiment, competition, macro conditions, and the restructuring outcome can move the stock quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | BILL is in a more balanced valuation zone than in prior years: cheap on cash flow and forward earnings, but still dependent on GAAP margin expansion, retention, and a successful AI restructuring. The margin of safety is improving but not yet wide. | Medium |
BILL AI stock forecast
The BILL AI stock forecast uses scenario math, not a single price prediction. Using the July 31, 2026 close of $45.13, about $2.64 consensus FY2026 non-GAAP EPS, and a three-year framework, the audited model produced a bearish area near $31, a base area near $57, and a bullish area near $91 before any dividends. The wide range reflects uncertainty around the restructuring outcome, revenue growth durability, margin expansion, and the multiple the market assigns to a newly profitable SMB fintech.
$80 to $95
More likely if BILL sustains 18% to 20% EPS growth through operating leverage, revenue growth stays above 12%, the AI product push lifts net dollar retention, Intuit competition does not materially erode share, and the market holds a 20x forward P/E on consensus EPS.
$52 to $60
More likely if EPS grows at 12% to 15%, revenue growth gradually decelerates toward 8% to 10%, margins improve slowly through the restructuring, and the market values BILL near a 15x forward P/E, consistent with the current consensus price target of about $54.57.
$28 to $35
More likely if the workforce reduction disrupts customer service and retention, revenue growth drops below 8%, Intuit and other competitors take share, SMB spending weakens in a macro downturn, or the buyback and restructuring fail to protect GAAP profitability.
BILL AI technical analysis
BILL AI technical analysis is short-term bullish and intermediate-term improving as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $45.13 on July 31, 2026 and traded near $46.60 intraday on August 3. After a low of $31.41 on June 18, 2026, BILL rebounded roughly 48% to a late-July peak near $48.18 before a pullback. The price now sits above the 50-day moving average near $38.56 and the 200-day moving average near $43.86, which is a meaningful improvement over the prior month when the 200-day average was still overhead.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $45.13 | StockAnalysis closing price on July 31, 2026, with an August 3, 2026 intraday quote near $46.60. Used for market cap and valuation math at the August 3 cutoff. |
| Near support | $44.30 to $44.50 | Barchart lists first support near $44.45, and the Fibonacci 50% retracement sits near $44.31. This is the first test on any pullback. |
| Key support | $42.90 to $43.90 | Barchart lists second support near $43.77 and third support near $42.94, with the 200-day moving average near $43.86. Holding this zone keeps the recovery structure intact. |
| Major support | $38.50 to $41.30 | The 50-day moving average near $38.56 and the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement near $41.27 form the main downside reference before the June 2026 low. |
| Near resistance | $46.00 to $47.50 | Barchart lists first resistance near $45.96, second near $46.79, and third near $47.47, with the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement near $47.35. A weekly close above this zone would open the path higher. |
| Major resistance | $48.00 to $57.21 | The late-July swing high near $48.18, the $50 round number, and the $57.21 52-week high from December 2025 are the key upside targets if the rally continues. |
| 50-day moving average | Approximately $38.56 | StockAnalysis reports the 50-day MA near $38.56. Price is comfortably above it, confirming the short-term uptrend. |
| 200-day moving average | Approximately $43.86 | StockAnalysis reports the 200-day MA near $43.86. Price reclaimed it in late July 2026, a constructive long-term signal after months below it. |
| Momentum | RSI near 63.6 | StockAnalysis reports RSI near 63.66. Momentum is positive but not overbought, leaving room for the uptrend to continue. |
| Volume | Above average during the rebound | The late-June to late-July recovery ran on above-average volume, while the July 31 pullback came on a typical 2.2 million share day. Volume support adds credibility to the move. |
| Volatility | High implied volatility near 80% | Barchart reports implied volatility near 80% with historical volatility near 51%. Options imply a near-term expected range of about $43.95 to $49.35 into the August 19 earnings report. |
| Invalidation | Close below $42.90 | A decisive weekly close below the $42.90 to $43.90 zone, including the 200-day moving average, would suggest the rebound was a bear market bounce rather than a durable trend change. |
BILL AI trading strategy
The BILL AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal financial advice. It combines the restructuring and margin improvement thesis with technical confirmation and explicit risk controls ahead of the August 19, 2026 earnings report.
Look for BILL to hold above the 200-day moving average near $43.86 and the $44.30 to $44.50 support zone, then build on strength with a weekly close above $47.50 after the Q4 FY2026 earnings report or a positive guidance update.
Define the invalidation level before entry. A close below $42.90, or a gap down below $43.86 on earnings, would argue for reducing or exiting the position.
If BILL pulls back toward the $44.30 to $44.50 zone or the 200-day moving average near $43.86 on light volume without a fundamental break, evaluate the August 19 results, net dollar retention trends, and the workforce reduction impact before considering a position.
Do not buy the dip solely because the stock is off its highs. Require a defined stop, position size limit, and fresh evidence that the restructuring is not damaging customer retention.
Track quarterly revenue growth, GAAP net income, non-GAAP EPS, free cash flow, net dollar retention, customer count, payment volume, AI agent adoption, the $1 billion buyback progress, and Intuit QuickBooks competitive moves.
Scenario ranges should be refreshed after the August 19, 2026 earnings report, any guidance updates, significant fintech sector moves, or competitive announcements from Intuit, SAP, or other ERP providers.
Investment research summary
BILL gets paid when SMBs use its platform to send invoices, approve expenses, make payments, and sync transactions with accounting software. The core customer job is reducing the manual work of back-office financial operations, and BILL is increasingly selling AI agents that automate those workflows.
The moat comes from SMB workflow habits, integration with accounting systems like QuickBooks and Xero, payment rails relationships, a network of about 8.3 million members, and the time cost of switching to a new financial operations platform. Intuit QuickBooks has a deeper SMB distribution channel and remains the biggest competitor.
The thesis fails if the workforce reduction of up to 30% disrupts customer service and retention, Intuit bundles competing functionality into QuickBooks at no extra cost, payment margin compression accelerates, SMB spending tightens in a macro downturn, or the AI-led transformation fails to convert productivity gains into durable revenue.
Founder Rene Lacerte has been CEO for 20 years and is driving an aggressive AI-first strategy with a reshaped executive team, including a new chief product officer, a new chief technology officer, and a new chief revenue officer. The $1 billion buyback shows shareholder alignment, but the restructuring carries execution risk.
SMB digitization of financial operations and adoption of AI agents in the back office are long-term secular trends. Over 100,000 BILL customers have started using its agents, but Intuit, SAP Concur, Tipalti, and other ERP providers are pursuing the same customer with their own AI products.
At about 17x forward earnings on $2.64 consensus FY2026 non-GAAP EPS, about 2.8x sales, about 11.7x free cash flow, and about 1.2x book value, BILL is reasonably priced relative to its cash generation. The margin of safety depends on whether the restructuring and margin expansion continue and whether the market holds the current multiple.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| BILL price | $45.13 at the July 31, 2026 close, with an August 3, 2026 intraday quote near $46.60 | StockAnalysis.com BILL quote and history pages | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $4.49 billion at the July 31 close, verified as $45.13 x 99.60 million shares with 0.11% deviation; about $4.64 billion at the August 3 intraday price with 0.03% deviation | StockAnalysis.com and financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares used for valuation | 99.60 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis.com statistics page | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | About $1.60 billion, up about 12.5% year over year through March 2026 | StockAnalysis.com financials, cross-checked with Barchart revenue data | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | FY2025 revenue of about $1.46 billion, up about 13.4%, with GAAP net income of $23.8 million | StockAnalysis.com financials and Barchart key statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM earnings and EPS | TTM GAAP net income of about $0.16 million, essentially breakeven; non-GAAP EPS for Q3 FY2026 was $0.68 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Barchart key statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Q3 FY2026 results | Revenue of $406.6 million, up about 13.5%, with GAAP net income of $12.8 million and GAAP EPS of $0.12 | StockAnalysis.com quarterly financials and Barchart earnings data | August 3, 2026 |
| Forward earnings estimate | Consensus FY2026 non-GAAP EPS of about $2.64, and FY2027 consensus EPS of about $3.38 | StockAnalysis.com forecast page | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and debt position | Cash and short-term investments of about $2.17 billion against total debt of about $1.89 billion, for net cash of about $287 million or about $2.89 per share | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Free cash flow | TTM operating cash flow of about $388.7 million and free cash flow of about $382.9 million, with FCF per share near $3.84 | StockAnalysis.com cash flow and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Business KPIs | About 493,800 total businesses using BILL solutions, 227,100 integrated platform customers, $326.2 billion integrated platform payment volume, and about 8.3 million network members on a TTM basis | StockAnalysis.com metrics page | August 3, 2026 |
| Net dollar retention | About 94% as of FY2025, down from 92% in FY2024 on the same basis | StockAnalysis.com metrics page | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Consensus Buy from 22 analysts, with an average price target of $54.57, a low of $42, and a high of $77 | StockAnalysis.com forecast page | August 3, 2026 |
| Restructuring and buyback | Management announced a workforce reduction of up to 30% by the end of Q4 FY2026 and a $1 billion buyback as part of an AI-first strategy | PYMNTS and Reuters reports on the Q3 FY2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week price range | $31.41 low to $57.21 high, with the current price above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart price data | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical levels | Support near $44.30 to $44.50 and $42.90 to $43.90; resistance near $46.00 to $47.50 and $48.00 to $57.21; 50-day MA near $38.56; 200-day MA near $43.86 | Barchart turning points and StockAnalysis.com moving averages | August 3, 2026 |
This BILL AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold BILL Holdings, Inc. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 3, 2026 and may be wrong if BILL fundamentals, the restructuring outcome, SMB spending, competition, interest rates, management execution, or market valuation change.
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