Companhia Energetica de Minas Gerais (CEMIG) research snapshot
CIG AI stock analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff reads CEMIG as a regulated Brazilian electric utility with stable cash generation, a roughly 9.7% dividend yield, and a low earnings multiple. The stock closed at $2.18 on August 3, 2026, down 0.46% from the $2.19 close on July 31, after opening at $2.19 and trading in a range of $2.15 to $2.20 on about 6.76 million shares, carrying a market capitalization near $7.29 billion per StockAnalysis.com. The main debate is whether the low trailing multiple and the high yield can offset a forecast of lower 2026 earnings, energy price and hydrological pressure on generation and trading, currency risk, and a Sell analyst consensus with an average target of $2.14. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$2.18 at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT market close, down 0.010 or 0.46% from the $2.19 July 31 close, after opening at $2.19 and trading in a range of $2.15 to $2.20 on about 6.76 million shares
Market cap
$7.29 billion per StockAnalysis.com at the August 3, 2026 close, with Yahoo Finance showing $6.29 billion intraday on July 10 and Macrotrends reporting $6.27 billion at the July 31 close, a normal multi-class ADR measurement spread
AI score
52 / 100
Rating
Stable regulated utility with a high yield, declining earnings, and a Sell analyst consensus
Trend status
Sideways to mildly positive: above the 50-day average near $2.13 and just below the 200-day average near $2.20, inside the recent $2.12 to $2.21 band
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | CEMIG generates, transmits, distributes, trades, and sells electricity and gas in Minas Gerais and other Brazilian states, with a regulated distribution monopoly, a hydro-dominated generation fleet, and growing wind and solar capacity. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from regulated distribution concessions in a defined geographic area, hydro assets with low marginal operating cost, scale in transmission and trading, and a large residential and industrial customer base, offset by state government control. | Medium-high |
| Management | A new CEO, Alexandre Ramos Peixoto, a career employee and former regulatory officer, took office in May 2026 under the state-owned enterprises law term limit. Management keeps two AAA ratings from Fitch and Moody's, a R$44 billion five-year investment program, and ongoing concession renewal talks for Sao Simao, Emborcacao, and Nova Ponte. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue is about R$43.37 billion (about US$8.31 billion) and TTM net income is about R$4.84 billion (about US$0.93 billion), but FY2025 net income fell 31.2% and 2026 consensus EPS is forecast down about 24%, with leverage around 2.37x net debt to EBITDA. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | CIG traded near 7.9x trailing earnings and offered a roughly 9.7% dividend yield at the cutoff, but the forward PE is about 10 to 12x on a declining 2026 estimate, and the three analysts covering the stock rate it Sell with an average target of $2.14. | Medium |
| Technical trend | CIG closed at $2.18 on August 3, 2026, above its 50-day average near $2.13 and just below its 200-day average near $2.20, with RSI near 53.7, beta near 0.09, and a 52-week range of $1.80 to $2.76. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are BRL/USD depreciation, energy price volatility and low GSF hitting generation and trading results, the 2028 distribution tariff review outcome, state government interference and dividend policy, distributed generation pressure on distribution volumes, and free market migration squeezing the gas business. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Medium for financial data, valuation, and technical levels that cross-checked across StockAnalysis.com, Yahoo Finance, Macrotrends, and the Q1 2026 earnings call. Lower for future ADR returns given currency, regulatory, and political uncertainty. | Medium data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. CEMIG is a solid utility business, but the ADR investment outcome depends heavily on the BRL exchange rate, Brazilian regulation and the 2028 tariff review, energy prices, and the controlling state government. | Medium-low |
CIG AI stock forecast
The CIG AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $2.18 August 3, 2026 cutoff price, not a precise price commitment. The next earnings date is August 13, 2026, so the scenarios are best rechecked after Q2 2026 results. The bullish case needs a stable or stronger BRL, energy trading recovery, concession renewals, and a favorable 2028 tariff review. The base case assumes the dividend does most of the work with limited price appreciation. The bearish case assumes currency weakness, more energy price and GSF pressure, lower 2026 earnings, or dividend reductions.
$2.60 to $2.90
More likely if the BRL strengthens against the USD, energy prices normalize and trading margins recover, the Sao Simao, Emborcacao, and Nova Ponte concessions are renewed on good terms, the 2028 tariff review recognizes the investment base, and the dividend stays near the current yield.
$2.10 to $2.40
More likely if the BRL trades in a neutral range, trading results hold near current guidance, CEMIG keeps paying a high dividend, and the stock trades around the $2.14 average analyst target with a 9% to 10% yield doing most of the work.
$1.60 to $1.95
More likely if the BRL weakens materially, energy prices stay volatile with a low GSF, 2026 EPS falls toward the consensus estimate, dividends are cut, the 2028 tariff review disappoints, or the state government changes dividend or capital policy.
CIG AI technical analysis
CIG AI technical analysis starts from the $2.18 August 3, 2026 close used for this static page, with daily history and moving averages from StockAnalysis.com. CIG is a low-beta utility ADR, so the stock tends to move in tight ranges and gap rarely. It sits above the 50-day moving average near $2.13 and just below the 200-day moving average near $2.20, which is consistent with a neutral-to-mildly-positive medium-term trend. The next earnings report on August 13, 2026 is a likely volatility catalyst. Levels should be confirmed on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $2.18 | StockAnalysis.com close at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT market close, down 0.010 or 0.46% from the $2.19 July 31 close, after opening at $2.19 and trading in a range of $2.15 to $2.20. |
| 5-day moving average | About $2.17 | Computed as the simple average of the five closing prices through August 3, 2026 in the StockAnalysis.com daily price history, a minor pivot just under the current price. |
| 20-day moving average | About $2.15 | Computed as the simple average of the twenty closing prices through August 3, 2026 in the StockAnalysis.com daily price history, an immediate support reference for pullbacks. |
| Near support | $2.12 to $2.13 | The 50-day moving average reported near $2.13 and the July 29, 2026 intraday low of $2.12 form the first support zone. |
| Secondary support | $2.07 to $2.10 | The June and early July 2026 consolidation area where the stock repeatedly found buyers before the mid-July uptick. |
| Major support | $2.00 | The psychological round-number level and the low end of the 2025 and 2026 trading bands; a close below it would weaken the technical picture. |
| 52-week low | $1.80 | The low end of the 52-week range reported by StockAnalysis.com. A break below would set a new low and challenge the long-term recovery. |
| Near resistance | $2.19 to $2.21 | The July 22 and July 31, 2026 highs and the upper edge of the recent band, with the 200-day average near $2.20 sitting inside this zone. |
| Next resistance | $2.40 to $2.50 | The next round of overhead from prior 2026 trading levels; a reclaim of this zone would signal a stronger uptrend. |
| 52-week high | $2.76 | The top of the 52-week range reported by StockAnalysis.com. A breakout above it with volume would confirm a new leg up. |
| 50-day moving average | $2.13 | Reported by StockAnalysis.com statistics on August 3, 2026, below the current price and a key support reference. |
| 200-day moving average | $2.20 | Reported by StockAnalysis.com statistics on August 3, 2026, just above the current price and capping the near-term upside until reclaimed. |
| Momentum | RSI near 53.7 | The 14-day RSI reported near 53.72 on StockAnalysis.com statistics on August 3, 2026, neutral and not overbought. |
| Volume | About 5.67 million shares average | StockAnalysis.com statistics listed 20-day average volume near 5.67 million shares; the August 3 session traded about 6.76 million shares, slightly above average with no unusual spike. |
| Volatility | Low | Beta near 0.09 on StockAnalysis.com statistics and the stock trades in narrow daily ranges, so position sizing can be smaller than for the broad market. |
| Invalidation | Close below $2.00, then $1.80 | A decisive close below the $2.12 to $2.13 support would weaken the near-term setup; a close below $2.00 then the $1.80 52-week low would put the long-term recovery at risk. |
CIG AI trading strategy
The CIG AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. Because CIG is a high-dividend, low-beta Brazilian utility ADR, income and mean-reversion approaches fit better than momentum trading. Pair every setup with fresh price data, currency checks, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
For income-oriented investors, CIG offers a roughly 9.7% dividend yield at the $2.18 cutoff, paid quarterly with the last ex-dividend date on July 2, 2026. The framework is to accumulate on pullbacks toward the $2.12 to $2.15 support when the yield is attractive relative to Brazilian interest rates and local bonds.
A dividend cut or suspension would be a strong sell signal. Monitor the payout ratio near 65%, BRL cash flow, the forecast lower 2026 dividend, and any state government cash demands before relying on the yield.
If CIG pulls back toward the $2.12 to $2.15 support zone without a fundamental thesis break, the high yield and low trailing multiple can justify a mean-reversion entry for patient traders, with the next resistance at $2.19 to $2.21 as the first target.
Do not add solely because the yield is high. Set a maximum loss before entry, verify the dividend is covered by operating cash flow, and check the August 13, 2026 earnings date for gap risk.
Track CEMIG quarterly BRL results, BRL/USD exchange rate trends, energy price and GSF data, the 2028 distribution tariff review, concession renewal news for Sao Simao, Emborcacao, and Nova Ponte, gas segment free market migration, and state government policy direction.
Reduce confidence or exit if the controlling state government changes dividend policy, energy trading losses persist, the BRL depreciates sharply, the 2028 tariff review disappoints, or 2026 guidance keeps falling.
Investment research summary
CEMIG distributes electricity to most of Minas Gerais, one of Brazil's most populous states, and generates power from a hydro-dominated fleet with growing wind and solar capacity, plus transmission, trading, and gas businesses that diversify the cash flows.
The moat is the regulated distribution concession in a defined geographic area, hydro assets with very low marginal operating cost, scale in transmission and trading, and a large residential and industrial base. The state of Minas Gerais is the controlling shareholder, which adds political risk to an otherwise protected utility model.
The thesis can fail if energy prices stay volatile with a low GSF, hurting generation and trading results; if the BRL depreciates sharply against the USD and cuts ADR returns; if the 2028 tariff review recognizes less than expected; if the state of Minas Gerais extracts excess dividends; or if distributed generation and free market migration keep eroding volumes and margins.
Management operates under state control with a mix of commercial and political objectives. A new CEO took office in May 2026, the company keeps two AAA ratings from Fitch and Moody's, runs a R$44 billion five-year investment program, and is negotiating the renewal of key hydro concessions. Governance and key-person risks exist under the controlling shareholder structure.
Brazilian electricity demand grows with GDP and population, and the country is investing in renewable energy, grid modernization, and smart infrastructure. CEMIG is central to that trend, but it faces distributed generation pressure, free market migration, and the transition from hydro dominance to a more diversified generation mix.
At about 7.9x trailing earnings and a roughly 9.7% dividend yield, CIG looks cheap statistically. However, the forward PE near 10 to 12x on a declining 2026 estimate, the Sell consensus with a $2.14 target, and Brazil country, currency, and state ownership risk mean the margin of safety depends on confidence in BRL stability, trading recovery, and regulatory consistency.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIG ADR price | $2.18 at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT close, down 0.010 or 0.46% from the $2.19 July 31 close, after opening at $2.19 and trading in a range of $2.15 to $2.20 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote and daily price history | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $7.29 billion per StockAnalysis.com at the August 3, 2026 close, with Yahoo Finance at $6.29 billion intraday on July 10 and Macrotrends at $6.27 billion at the July 31 close | StockAnalysis.com quote, Yahoo Finance, Macrotrends market cap | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | R$43.37 billion, about US$8.31 billion, up about 6.8% over the trailing twelve months ended March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com financials and quote | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM net income | R$4.84 billion, about US$927 million, down about 30.9% from the prior trailing period | StockAnalysis.com financials and quote | August 4, 2026 |
| EPS and PE ratio | EPS of $0.32 (StockAnalysis.com) to $0.34 (Yahoo Finance); trailing PE of about 7.9x (StockAnalysis.com) to 6.5x (Yahoo Finance), with forward PE near 10 to 12x | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Yahoo Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Dividend | $0.21 annual dividend per share with a 9.71% yield, paid quarterly, last ex-dividend date July 2, 2026, payout ratio about 65%, dividend growth down 31.1% year over year | StockAnalysis.com statistics and dividend history | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | PS 0.88, PB 1.32, P/FCF 11.71, EV/EBITDA 6.72, EV/Sales 1.31, earnings yield 12.72%, FCF yield 8.54% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | Cash of US$343.61 million, total debt of US$3.84 billion, net cash of negative US$3.49 billion, book value of US$5.54 billion or $1.94 per share, debt/equity 0.69 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Leverage | Net debt to EBITDA of 2.37x per StockAnalysis.com statistics, and 2.45x net debt over recurring EBITDA cited by management for Q1 2026, with about 6.6 years of average debt maturity | StockAnalysis.com statistics and CEMIG Q1 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2025 results | Revenue of R$42.75 billion up 7.36%, net income of R$4.90 billion down 31.19%, EPS of R$1.71; recurring EBITDA of R$7.3 billion, recurring net profit of R$4.2 billion, record investments of R$6.6 billion, and leverage of 2.3x | StockAnalysis.com financials and CEMIG Q4 2025 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | EBITDA of R$1.79 billion, profit of R$979 million, investment of R$1.48 billion including R$1.28 billion in distribution, and R$658 million in shareholder remuneration; distribution EBITDA rose 26.6% to about R$1.0 billion with the May Parcela B adjustment of 7.78% | CEMIG Q1 2026 earnings call and earnings release | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2025 segment revenue | Distribution R$29.0 billion, trading R$8.4 billion, generation R$3.1 billion, gas R$2.8 billion, transmission R$1.4 billion, and investees R$120 million, before eliminations | StockAnalysis.com financials segment data | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Sell rating across 3 analysts with an average price target of $2.14, low of $1.91, median of $2.00, and high of $2.50, roughly 1.8% below the August 3 close | StockAnalysis.com forecast and recommendation trends | August 4, 2026 |
| 2026 and 2027 estimates | 2026 revenue consensus of R$34.4 billion down about 19.6% from 2025, 2026 EPS consensus of R$1.10 down about 23.8%; 2027 revenue of R$37.2 billion up about 8.2% and 2027 EPS of R$1.19 up about 7.9% | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week range and beta | 52-week range of $1.80 to $2.76, 52-week price change of +19.78%, beta of 0.09 | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day moving average near $2.13 and 200-day moving average near $2.20 on StockAnalysis.com statistics, 14-day RSI near 53.72, 20-day average volume near 5.67 million shares, and a computed 5-day average near $2.17 and 20-day average near $2.15 from the daily price history | StockAnalysis.com statistics and daily price history | August 4, 2026 |
| Governance | Alexandre Ramos Peixoto approved as CEO in May 2026, replacing Reynaldo Passanezi Filho under the term limit of the State-Owned Enterprises Law; two AAA ratings from Fitch and Moody's; R$44 billion five-year investment program; concession renewal discussions for Sao Simao, Emborcacao, and Nova Ponte | CEMIG Q1 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| Earnings date | Next estimated earnings date is Thursday, August 13, 2026, after market close | StockAnalysis.com statistics important dates | August 4, 2026 |
This CIG AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 4, 2026 and can be wrong. Investing in Brazilian ADRs involves additional risks including currency fluctuation, political instability, energy price and hydrological swings, and differing regulatory standards.
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