Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A.A. research snapshot
BVN AI stock analysis currently rates Compañía de Minas Buenaventura as a financially stronger but still highly cyclical mining company, with a constructive fundamental setup and a neutral, consolidation-driven technical posture. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, BVN closed at $30.28 on July 31, implying a market capitalization of about $7.69 billion using approximately 253.99 million shares. Buenaventura reported second-quarter 2026 revenue of $529.0 million, EBITDA from direct operations of $277.1 million, EBITDA including affiliates of $492.8 million and net income attributable to owners of $237.4 million. First-half 2026 revenue reached $1,153.6 million, EBITDA from direct operations was $663.4 million and net income attributable to owners was $514.0 million. The company held $758.9 million in cash at June 30, 2026, a net cash position of $66.6 million, and received $274.1 million in Cerro Verde dividends during the first half. The case depends on historically high gold, silver and copper prices, the San Gabriel ramp-up, Cerro Verde cash and disciplined capital allocation. The main risks are a commodity-price reversal, mine grade and cost volatility, permitting and social issues in Peru, project execution and currency. This page is for informational use only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$30.28, July 31, 2026 close
Market cap
$7.69 billion, based on approximately 253.99 million shares
AI score
69 / 100
Rating
Strong gold, silver and copper exposure with net cash, a ramping San Gabriel and growing Cerro Verde dividends, balanced by extreme commodity prices and high operating and political risk
Trend status
Neutral technical posture: price is below the 50-day and 200-day averages near $31.73, RSI is near 47, and the chart is consolidating after a big 2025 to 2026 advance
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Buenaventura owns and operates Peruvian mines producing gold, silver, copper, lead and zinc, and also owns stakes in Cerro Verde and Coimolache. The business has real assets, operating history and project optionality, but revenue and margins remain linked to metal prices and mine plans, and San Gabriel is still in its ramp-up phase. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from mineral rights, permits, geological knowledge, operating infrastructure, local relationships, a long project pipeline and the 19.58% Cerro Verde stake. It is a resource and execution moat, not a consumer brand or network-effect moat, and can weaken when grades decline or permits are challenged. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Leandro García Raggio and CFO Daniel Dominguez lead a company that returned to a net cash position, raised the dividend, restructured debt and kept San Gabriel moving through a difficult ramp. Major shareholders including Antofagasta and the Benavides family provide alignment and mining expertise, but concentration can limit outside influence and makes capital allocation and governance important watch items. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Revenue rose from $900.45 million in 2021 to $1,732 million in 2025 and $2,208 million on a trailing twelve-month basis, while net income to common moved from a $264.08 million loss in 2021 to $782.15 million in 2025. The series is not smooth: 2022 and 2023 show how one-off items, metal prices, mine performance and asset transactions can distort the trend, and 2026 profits are boosted by record prices. | High for reported data |
| Valuation | At $30.28, the trailing P/E is about 7.2x using reported EPS near $4.19, forward P/E is about 7.6x, price to book is about 1.78x and price to trailing free cash flow is about 11.7x. The apparent low P/E is partly a bet on elevated earnings and metal prices, while heavy San Gabriel capital spending keeps reported free cash flow below accounting earnings. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The August technical snapshot is neutral. ChartMill reported a 6/10 technical rating, RSI of 47.02, SMA(20) of $30.44, SMA(50) of $31.73 and SMA(200) of $31.73, while price closed at $30.28. The stock is below its moving averages after a pullback from the $44.67 high, so price and volume confirmation matter. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high. Commodity prices, mine grades, recoveries, permitting, social conflict, government policy, currency, project overruns, environmental obligations and provisional sales adjustments can change cash flow faster than the income statement suggests. Record metal prices also raise the chance of a sharp normalization. | High |
| AI confidence | AI confidence is high for the historical snapshot and medium for the forecast. The available filings are detailed, but no model can reliably forecast gold, silver or copper prices, geological outcomes, community decisions or the timing of a mine ramp-up. | Medium-high |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium-low. Net cash, Cerro Verde dividends and San Gabriel improve the setup, but the current price still requires favorable commodity conditions and reliable project execution. A lower entry price or clearer normalized cash flow would improve the margin of safety. | Medium |
BVN AI stock forecast
The BVN AI stock forecast uses a three-year EPS scenario model starting from roughly $4.19 of trailing twelve-month EPS, with 2026 consensus net income near $1.15 billion. The financial rigor calculation produces about $76 in a 12% growth and 13x exit P/E case, about $53 in an 8% growth and 10x case, and about $28 in a 6% decline and 8x case. The wider ranges below reflect commodity prices, mine performance, San Gabriel timing, dividends from associates and the market multiple. These are scenarios, not guaranteed price targets.
$60 to $80 over three years
More likely if gold, silver and copper prices stay near current highs, San Gabriel reaches steady-state production and cost, Cerro Verde continues to distribute cash, direct mine costs stay controlled and EPS compounds near the low double digits.
$42 to $54 over three years
More likely if metal prices remain above long-term averages but normalize from 2026 peaks, San Gabriel ramps without a major cost overrun, production is broadly on plan and investors apply a mid-cycle multiple near 10x earnings.
$20 to $30 over three years
More likely if precious-metals prices retreat sharply, copper weakens, grades or recoveries disappoint, San Gabriel is delayed or its cost stays high, Peru-related permitting or social issues disrupt operations, or investors value earnings on a lower cycle multiple near 8x.
BVN AI technical analysis
BVN AI technical analysis is neutral as of the August 3, 2026 cutoff. ChartMill showed a 6/10 technical rating, neutral long and short term trends, RSI of 47.02, MACD of 0.13, daily stochastics of 44.61 and ATR(20) volatility of 4.56%. StockAnalysis reported the same 50-day and 200-day moving averages near $31.73. The stock closed at $30.28 on July 31, below both averages, after falling from the $44.67 52-week high. Different providers update at different times, so these levels are reference points rather than fixed signals.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $30.28 | July 31, 2026 NYSE close used for the market-cap and valuation context. |
| Near support | $29.72 | ChartMill weekly horizontal support. A close below this level would put the recent consolidation at risk. |
| Secondary support | $29.09 | ChartMill daily trend-line support. A close below this level would weaken the near-term structure. |
| Lower support | $28.36 to $27.83 | ChartMill daily horizontal supports and a deeper risk reference if the trend-line level fails. |
| 20-day SMA | $30.44 | ChartMill snapshot. Price was slightly below this average at the cutoff. |
| 50-day SMA | $31.73 | ChartMill and StockAnalysis both reported $31.73. Price was below this average at the cutoff. |
| 200-day SMA | $31.73 | ChartMill and StockAnalysis both reported $31.73. The 50-day and 200-day averages were nearly identical at the cutoff. |
| Near resistance | $30.44 to $31.01 | ChartMill resistance zone formed by trend lines and moving averages. A sustained break would need volume confirmation. |
| Higher resistance | $31.68 to $35.76 | The $31.68 to $32.20 zone is the next hurdle, then $33.07 and $35.76; $44.67 was the reported 52-week high. |
| Momentum and volume | RSI 47.02; July 31 volume 632,281 shares | Momentum was neutral in ChartMill, and volume has been below the recent average shown by ChartMill. |
| Volatility | ATR(20) 4.56%; ADR 4.03% | ChartMill snapshot. Earnings, metal prices and Peru-related news can create moves larger than ordinary daily volatility. |
| Research invalidation | Sustained close below $27.83 | A sustained break of the lowest daily support, especially with weaker metal prices or project execution, would require a full thesis review. |
BVN AI trading strategy
The BVN AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personal financial advice. Use live prices, metal prices, filings, production updates, volume and your own risk limits before considering any trade or investment decision.
Watch for a sustained close above $31.73 with volume confirmation, improving gold and copper price trends, and evidence that San Gabriel is reaching planned production and cost. A move toward $35.76 would be stronger confirmation than a single intraday break.
A failed breakout followed by a close below $29.72 weakens the setup. Do not treat a commodity-price spike or moving-average break as a complete investment thesis.
If price holds $29.72 to $29.09 and RSI cools, compare the rebound with current gold, silver and copper prices, San Gabriel production, Cerro Verde distributions and mine-level costs before calling it a reversal.
Do not assume a lower price is automatically cheap. Define the invalidation level in advance and avoid averaging down if grades, recoveries, permits, costs or cash generation deteriorate.
Track realized metal prices, gold and copper production, silver and base-metal grades, cost applicable to sales, San Gabriel ramp-up and CAS, Cerro Verde net income and dividends, capex, cash, debt, provisional price adjustments and Peru permitting or social developments.
Reduce confidence if metal prices normalize faster than costs, San Gabriel misses its ramp plan or stays expensive, cash conversion stays below accounting earnings, sustaining capex rises, or a permitting and community dispute interrupts production.
Investment research summary
Buenaventura is a Peruvian mining and metals company. Customers pay for gold, silver, copper, lead and zinc contained in ore and concentrates, while shareholders also receive exposure to the company's stakes in Cerro Verde and Coimolache. The economic engine is the difference between realized metal prices and the cost of finding, permitting, mining, processing and closing a mine.
The moat is built from mineral rights, permits, geological databases, mine infrastructure, processing plants, local operating knowledge and relationships with partners and communities. Buenaventura also owns 19.58% of Cerro Verde, a large copper operation, and 40.09% of Coimolache. The weakness is that reserves deplete and the company cannot control metal prices.
The thesis fails if gold, silver or copper prices fall from record levels, grades disappoint, recovery rates decline, energy and labor costs rise, San Gabriel takes longer or costs more to ramp, Cerro Verde dividends fall, or permitting and social conflict interrupt production. A 2026 earnings jump can also mislead if it is treated as normalized profit rather than a mix of extreme prices, mine performance and investment-company income.
Leandro García Raggio is CEO, Daniel Dominguez is CFO and Roque Benavides is Chairman. Buenaventura has concentrated strategic ownership, with Antofagasta and the Benavides family among the major holders. The company returned to net cash, raised the dividend to $1.14 per share on a trailing basis, reduced the Huanza lease balance and kept San Gabriel ramping despite tailings-management challenges. The key management test is whether capital is allocated between San Gabriel, sustaining capex, exploration, debt and distributions without sacrificing mine life or balance-sheet resilience.
The long-term case benefits from demand for copper, silver and gold, but mining remains a capital-intensive and politically exposed industry. Copper is linked to electrification and grid investment, silver has industrial and monetary demand, and gold is a store-of-value asset. Peru provides a strong mining resource base, yet the value chain also includes permitting, water, community consent, taxes, royalties, logistics and environmental closure obligations.
At $30.28, financial rigor calculations show about 7.2x trailing EPS, 1.78x book value, 11.7x trailing free cash flow, 6.9x EV/EBITDA and a 3.75% dividend yield. The low P/E is not enough by itself because trailing free cash flow of about $656 million is well below accounting net income near $1.06 billion, reflecting San Gabriel capital spending and working-capital swings. The margin of safety depends on normalized cash generation rather than peak metal prices.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| BVN closing price | $30.28 on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis historical prices and ChartMill | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $7.69 billion reported; approximately $7.69 billion calculated from $30.28 and 253.99 million shares | StockAnalysis plus financial rigor calculation | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 253.99 million reported; 253,986,867 weighted average shares for 2Q26 | StockAnalysis and Buenaventura 2Q26 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $1,732 million, up 49.98% from 2024 | Buenaventura Integrated Annual Report, SEC Form 20-F and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income to common | $782.15 million attributable to owners of the parent | Buenaventura Integrated Annual Report and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 five-year financial trend | Revenue $900.45M in 2021 to $1,732M in 2025; net income to common -$264.08M in 2021 to $782.15M in 2025 | StockAnalysis standardized annual income statement | August 3, 2026 |
| 2Q26 revenue and profitability | $529.0M revenue; $277.1M EBITDA direct operations; $492.8M EBITDA including affiliates; $237.4M net income to owners; EPS $0.93 | Buenaventura 2Q26 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| 1H26 revenue and profitability | $1,153.6M revenue; $663.4M EBITDA direct operations; $1,071.6M EBITDA including affiliates; $514.0M net income to owners; EPS $2.02 | Buenaventura 2Q26 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| 2Q26 production | Equity gold 37,266 oz; equity silver 3,693,984 oz; equity copper 26,315 MT; San Gabriel gold 2,774 oz | Buenaventura 2Q26 operating results | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and net debt | $758.9M cash and net debt of negative $66.6M at June 30, 2026; leverage ratio -0.05x | Buenaventura 2Q26 results and interim financial statements | August 3, 2026 |
| Cerro Verde dividends | $117.5M received on July 24, 2026; total dividends received year-to-date 2026 of $274.1M | Buenaventura 2Q26 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| 2Q26 realized prices | Gold $4,342/oz direct operations, +31% YoY; silver $89.52/oz, +160% YoY; copper $14,029/MT, +47% YoY | Buenaventura 2Q26 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM income and cash flow | TTM revenue $2,208M; TTM net income about $1.06B to $1.12B depending on source; TTM operating cash flow about $1.18B; TTM free cash flow $656.13M; FCF per share $2.58 | StockAnalysis statistics and financials pages, with company cash flow statement showing 1H26 operating cash flow of $759.3M | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation context | 7.17x trailing P/E; 7.61x forward P/E; 1.78x book value; 11.72x P/FCF; 6.93x EV/EBITDA; 3.75% dividend yield | StockAnalysis statistics page using $30.28 close | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | $1.14 annual dividend paid semi-annually; last ex-dividend date April 21, 2026; payout ratio 25.96% | StockAnalysis dividend page | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold consensus from 6 analysts; average price target $37.78, median $37.25, low $27.4, high $50; Scotiabank lowered to $40 from $44 on July 14, 2026; Morgan Stanley lowered to $35 from $43 on July 8, 2026 | StockAnalysis forecast page and TheFly/TipRanks news | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | Technical rating 6/10; RSI 47.02; MACD 0.13; ATR(20) 4.56%; support $29.72, $29.09 and $28.36 to $27.83 | ChartMill technical analysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Moving-average snapshot | SMA20 $30.44; SMA50 $31.73; SMA200 $31.73; 52-week high $44.67; 52-week range $16.90 to $44.67 | ChartMill and StockAnalysis market statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Ownership and management | Leandro García Raggio CEO; Daniel Dominguez CFO; insiders 13.21%, institutions 46.44%, float 172.37M shares; short interest 4.07M shares, or 2.33% of shares out | StockAnalysis statistics page and company disclosures | August 3, 2026 |
| FCF source gap | StockAnalysis statistics page shows TTM free cash flow of $656.13M, while the financials overview page shows a larger TTM figure; the company cash flow statement shows 1H26 operating cash flow of $759.3M and capex of $237.5M | StockAnalysis statistics and financials pages plus Buenaventura interim statements | August 3, 2026 |
This BVN AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment, tax, legal or accounting advice. Forecasts are scenario ranges based on available data and assumptions and may be wrong. Prices, technical indicators, financial statements, dividends, metal prices, production, management plans and risk factors can change. Verify current filings and market data and consult a qualified professional before acting.
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