Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A.A. research snapshot
BVN AI stock analysis currently rates Compañía de Minas Buenaventura as a financially improved but highly cyclical mining company, with a constructive fundamental setup and a confirmation-needed technical posture. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, BVN closed at $30.02 on July 10, implying a market capitalization of about $7.64 billion using approximately 253.99 million shares. Buenaventura reported 2025 revenue of $1.732 billion and net income attributable to owners of $782.1 million. First-quarter 2026 revenue reached $624.6 million, direct-operations EBITDA was $386.3 million, and net income attributable to owners was $335.4 million. The case depends on strong gold, silver and copper prices, the San Gabriel ramp-up, Cerro Verde dividends and disciplined capital allocation. The main risks are commodity-price reversals, grade and cost volatility, permitting and social issues in Peru, project execution, currency and valuation compression. This page is for informational use only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$30.02, July 10, 2026 close
Market cap
$7.64 billion, based on approximately 253.99 million shares
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Strong precious-metals and copper exposure with net cash and a San Gabriel growth option, balanced by high commodity, political and operating risk
Trend status
Long-term trend remains elevated, but the short-term chart is extended and volatile: RSI is overbought while price is below reported 50-day and 200-day averages
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Buenaventura owns and operates Peruvian mines producing gold, silver, copper, lead and zinc, and also owns stakes in Cerro Verde and Coimolache. The business has real assets, operating history and project optionality, but revenue and margins remain linked to metal prices and mine plans. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from mineral rights, permits, geological knowledge, operating infrastructure, local relationships, a long project pipeline and the 19.58% Cerro Verde stake. It is a resource and execution moat, not a consumer brand or network-effect moat, and can weaken when grades decline or permits are challenged. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Leandro García and Chairman Roque Benavides lead a company with concentrated strategic ownership. Antofagasta, the Benavides family and other major holders provide alignment and mining expertise, but concentration can limit outside shareholder influence and makes capital allocation and governance important watch items. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Revenue rose from $900.5 million in 2021 to $1.732 billion in 2025, while net income to common moved from a $264.1 million loss in 2021 to $782.1 million in 2025. The series is not smooth: 2022 and 2023 show how one-off items, metal prices, mine performance and asset transactions can distort the trend. | High for reported data |
| Valuation | At $30.02, the financial rigor calculation gives about 9.75 times FY2025 EPS and 1.88 times FY2025 parent book value. The apparent low P/E is partly a bet on elevated earnings and metal prices, while FY2025 free cash flow of about $104 million produces a much higher P/FCF because San Gabriel and other capital spending remain heavy. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The July 12 technical snapshot is mixed. ChartMill reported RSI 76.61, ATR(14) of $1.05 and a support zone at $27.16 to $27.71, while ChartExchange reported a 50-day SMA of $32.80 and a 200-day SMA of $31.20. The stock is volatile and close to a recent high, so price and volume confirmation matter. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high. Commodity prices, mine grades, recoveries, permitting, social conflict, government policy, currency, project overruns, environmental obligations and provisional sales adjustments can change cash flow faster than the income statement suggests. | High |
| AI confidence | AI confidence is high for the historical snapshot and medium for the forecast. The available filings are detailed, but no model can reliably forecast gold, silver or copper prices, geological outcomes, community decisions or the timing of a mine ramp-up. | Medium-high |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium-low. Net cash, Cerro Verde dividends and San Gabriel improve the setup, but the current price still requires favorable commodity conditions and reliable project execution. A lower entry price or clearer normalized cash flow would improve the margin of safety. | Medium |
BVN AI stock forecast
The BVN AI stock forecast uses a three-year EPS scenario model starting from approximately $3.08 of FY2025 EPS. The financial rigor tool produced about $60.60 in a 12% growth and 14x exit P/E case, $42.70 in an 8% growth and 11x case, and $26.90 in a 3% growth and 8x case. The wider ranges below reflect commodity prices, mine performance, San Gabriel timing, dividends from associates and the market multiple. These are scenarios, not guaranteed price targets.
$50 to $65 over three years
More likely if gold, silver and copper prices remain strong, San Gabriel reaches steady-state production, Cerro Verde continues to distribute cash, direct mine costs stay controlled and EPS compounds near the high single digits to low teens.
$35 to $45 over three years
More likely if metal prices remain above long-term averages but normalize from 2026 peaks, San Gabriel ramps without a major cost overrun, production is broadly on plan and investors assign a mid-cycle multiple near 11x earnings.
$22 to $28 over three years
More likely if precious-metals prices retreat, copper weakens, grades or recoveries disappoint, San Gabriel is delayed, Peru-related permitting or social issues disrupt operations, or investors value earnings on a lower cycle multiple near 8x.
BVN AI technical analysis
BVN AI technical analysis is extended but not conclusive as of the July 12, 2026 cutoff. ChartMill showed a positive long and short trend, RSI of 76.61, Stochastics of 93.29 and ATR(20) volatility of 3.34%, which signals strong momentum with overbought conditions. ChartExchange reported a July 10 close of $30.02, a 50-day SMA of $32.80 and a 200-day SMA of $31.20. Different providers update at different times, so these levels are reference points rather than fixed signals.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $30.02 | July 10, 2026 NYSE close used for the market-cap and valuation context. |
| Near support | $27.16 to $27.71 | ChartMill support zone formed by trend lines and moving-average references. It is a reference area, not a guaranteed floor. |
| Secondary support | $24.22 | ChartMill weekly trend-line support. A close below this level would weaken the recent momentum structure. |
| Lower support | $23.37 | ChartMill daily trend-line support and a deeper risk reference if the $24.22 level fails. |
| 50-day SMA | $32.80 | ChartExchange July 10 technical snapshot. Price was below this average at the cutoff. |
| 200-day SMA | $31.20 | ChartExchange July 10 technical snapshot. Price was slightly below this longer-term reference. |
| Near resistance | $30.07 | ChartMill reported the recent 10-day and 20-day high near $30.07. A sustained break would need volume confirmation. |
| Higher resistance | $32.80 to $38.78 | The 50-day SMA is the first moving-average hurdle; $38.78 was the reported 52-week high. |
| Momentum and volume | RSI 76.61; July 10 volume 451,852 shares | Momentum was overbought in ChartMill, while StockAnalysis reported July 10 volume below the recent average shown by ChartMill. |
| Volatility | ATR(14) $1.05; ATR(20) 3.34% | ChartMill snapshot. Earnings, metal prices and Peru-related news can create moves larger than ordinary daily volatility. |
| Research invalidation | Sustained close below $23.37 | A sustained break of the lower technical support, especially with weaker metal prices or project execution, would require a full thesis review. |
BVN AI trading strategy
The BVN AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personal financial advice. Use live prices, metal prices, filings, production updates, volume and your own risk limits before considering any trade or investment decision.
Watch for a sustained close above $32.80 with volume confirmation, improving gold and copper price trends, and evidence that San Gabriel is reaching planned production. A move toward the $38.78 52-week high would be stronger confirmation than a single intraday break.
A failed breakout followed by a close below $27.16 weakens the setup. Do not treat a commodity-price spike or moving-average break as a complete investment thesis.
If price holds $27.16 to $27.71 and RSI cools, compare the rebound with current gold, silver and copper prices, San Gabriel production, Cerro Verde distributions and mine-level costs before calling it a reversal.
Do not assume a lower price is automatically cheap. Define the invalidation level in advance and avoid averaging down if grades, recoveries, permits, costs or cash generation deteriorate.
Track realized metal prices, gold and copper production, silver and base-metal grades, cost applicable to sales, San Gabriel ramp-up, Cerro Verde net income and dividends, capex, cash, debt, provisional price adjustments and Peru permitting or social developments.
Reduce confidence if metal prices normalize faster than costs, San Gabriel misses its ramp plan, cash conversion stays below accounting earnings, sustaining capex rises, or a permitting and community dispute interrupts production.
Investment research summary
Buenaventura is a Peruvian mining and metals company. Customers pay for gold, silver, copper, lead and zinc contained in ore and concentrates, while shareholders also receive exposure to the company's stakes in Cerro Verde and Coimolache. The economic engine is the difference between realized metal prices and the cost of finding, permitting, mining, processing and closing a mine.
The moat is built from mineral rights, permits, geological databases, mine infrastructure, processing plants, local operating knowledge and relationships with partners and communities. Buenaventura also owns 19.58% of Cerro Verde, a large copper operation, and 40.09% of Coimolache. The weakness is that reserves deplete and the company cannot control metal prices.
The thesis fails if gold, silver or copper prices fall, grades disappoint, recovery rates decline, energy and labor costs rise, San Gabriel takes longer or costs more to ramp, Cerro Verde dividends fall, or permitting and social conflict interrupt production. A 2025 earnings jump can also mislead if it is treated as normalized profit rather than a mix of strong prices, mine performance and investment-company income.
Leandro García is CEO and Roque Benavides is Chairman. Buenaventura has concentrated strategic ownership, with Antofagasta and the Benavides family among the major holders. The 2025 cash flow statement shows high capital spending, debt refinancing activity and a return to meaningful dividends. The key management test is whether capital is allocated between San Gabriel, sustaining capex, exploration, debt and distributions without sacrificing mine life or balance-sheet resilience.
The long-term case benefits from demand for copper, silver and gold, but mining remains a capital-intensive and politically exposed industry. Copper is linked to electrification and grid investment, silver has industrial and monetary demand, and gold is a store-of-value asset. Peru provides a strong mining resource base, yet the value chain also includes permitting, water, community consent, taxes, royalties, logistics and environmental closure obligations.
At $30.02, financial rigor calculations show about 9.75x FY2025 EPS, 1.88x FY2025 parent book value, 73.22x FY2025 free cash flow per share and a 3.30% yield using the proposed $0.9904 dividend. The low P/E is not enough by itself because FY2025 free cash flow was only about $104 million after large capital spending. The margin of safety depends on normalized cash generation rather than peak metal prices.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| BVN closing price | $30.02 on July 10, 2026 | ChartExchange and StockAnalysis historical prices | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $7.64 billion reported; approximately $7.625 billion calculated from $30.02 and 253.99 million shares | ChartExchange plus financial rigor calculation | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 253.99 million weighted average shares | Buenaventura 1Q26 results and ChartExchange | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $1.732 billion, up 49.98% from 2024 | Buenaventura Integrated Annual Report, SEC Form 20-F and StockAnalysis | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income to common | $782.1 million attributable to owners of the parent | Buenaventura Integrated Annual Report and StockAnalysis | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 five-year financial trend | Revenue $900.5M in 2021 to $1.732B in 2025; net income to common -$264.1M in 2021 to $782.1M in 2025 | StockAnalysis standardized annual income statement | July 12, 2026 |
| 1Q26 revenue and profitability | $624.6M revenue; $386.3M direct-operations EBITDA; $335.4M net income to owners; EPS $1.32 | Buenaventura 1Q26 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| 1Q26 production | Equity gold 37,815 oz; direct silver 3.662M oz; direct copper 6,728 MT; direct lead 4,495 MT; direct zinc 7,379 MT | Buenaventura 1Q26 operating results | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and net debt | $759.9M cash and net debt of negative $51.9M at March 31, 2026 | Buenaventura 1Q26 results and interim financial statements | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 free cash flow | $104.31M standardized FCF, or $0.41 per share | StockAnalysis, with company cash-flow statement showing $577.32M operating cash flow and $473.01M capex | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation context | 9.75x FY2025 EPS; 1.88x parent book value; 73.22x FCF per share; 3.30% dividend yield in the financial rigor calculation | Financial rigor calculation using FY2025 annual report and StockAnalysis data | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | RSI 76.61; ATR(14) $1.05; ATR(20) 3.34%; support $27.16 to $27.71 | ChartMill technical analysis | July 12, 2026 |
| Moving-average snapshot | SMA50 $32.80; SMA200 $31.20; 52-week high $38.78 | ChartExchange market statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Ownership and management | Leandro García CEO; Roque Benavides Chairman; major holders including Antofagasta and the Benavides family represent approximately 35% of outstanding share capital as of March 31, 2026 | Buenaventura Form 20-F and corporate governance disclosures | July 12, 2026 |
| FCF source gap | The company cash-flow statement implies about $97.4M after operating cash flow, property and equipment purchases, and other assets, while StockAnalysis standardized FCF is $104.31M | Buenaventura Integrated Annual Report and StockAnalysis | July 12, 2026 |
This BVN AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment, tax, legal or accounting advice. Forecasts are scenario ranges based on available data and assumptions and may be wrong. Prices, technical indicators, financial statements, dividends, metal prices, production, management plans and risk factors can change. Verify current filings and market data and consult a qualified professional before acting.
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