Black Stone Minerals, L.P. research snapshot
BSM AI stock analysis currently reads Black Stone Minerals, L.P. as a mineral and royalty MLP that owns oil and natural gas mineral interests across approximately 16.9 million gross acres in 41 U.S. states, generating income from royalty payments without bearing drilling or operating costs. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, BSM closed at $13.81 on July 10, 2026, with a verified market capitalization near $2.94 billion, TTM revenue of about $410 million, TTM net income of about $268 million, and a dividend yield of approximately 8.7%. The BSM AI stock forecast is scenario-based because royalty income depends on commodity prices, production volumes on its acreage, and operator activity, while the MLP structure supports a high distribution that may be sensitive to commodity cycles. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$13.81 NYSE close on July 10, 2026
Market cap
$2.94 billion verified market capitalization
AI score
65 / 100
Rating
Asset-light oil and gas mineral and royalty MLP with high margins, a strong dividend yield, and significant exposure to commodity prices and production volumes on its mineral acreage
Trend status
Near the middle of the 52-week range with a beta near zero, indicating price moves driven by oil and gas fundamentals rather than broad equity market direction
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Black Stone Minerals owns mineral and royalty interests across a large U.S. acreage position. It earns income when third-party operators drill and produce oil and gas on its land, without bearing capital costs or operating expenses. This asset-light model produces very high profit margins near 72% and requires minimal reinvestment, making it a pure royalty cash-flow stream. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from its large mineral acreage position of 16.9 million gross acres across 41 states, low-cost basis in mineral rights, long history dating to 1876, and relationships with operators. It is a resource-position advantage rather than a brand or network-effect moat, and acreage can be depleted over time without new acquisitions. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Thomas J. Carter Jr. leads a management team focused on mineral and royalty interest acquisitions, lease management, and distribution growth. Management has allocated capital between acquisitions, debt reduction, and unitholder distributions. The MLP structure creates alignment through distribution policy and incentive distribution rights. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue of approximately $410 million is supported by royalty income across a diversified acreage base. TTM net income of about $268 million reflects the high-margin nature of the mineral royalty business. Q1 2026 revenue was $117.52 million with net income of $13.27 million and EPS of $0.28. The balance sheet shows $11.61 million cash and a low debt-to-equity ratio of about 17.4%. | High |
| Valuation | At $13.81, verified math gives about 10.9x TTM EPS of $1.27, 2.80x book value, 30.7x price to levered free cash flow, 6.97x price to sales, and an 8.7% dividend yield. The low P/E and high yield reflect commodity price sensitivity and the risk that production volumes or royalty income may decline. The verified three-scenario model spans about $8.7 in a bear case to $25.4 in a bull case. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | BSM trades near $13.81 with a 52-week range of $11.78 to $15.49. Beta near zero (0.02 to 0.05) indicates that price moves are driven by oil and gas prices, production updates, and distribution announcements rather than broad equity market direction. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate to elevated for a mineral royalty MLP. The main risks are commodity price declines that reduce operator drilling activity and royalty income, production decline on existing acreage without replacement acquisitions, federal leasing and environmental policy changes, distribution sustainability through commodity cycles, and operator concentration or credit risk. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for reported financial history, valuation math, balance sheet data, dividend record, and technical references. Medium for future commodity price paths, operator drilling activity, production volume trends, acreage acquisition costs, and terminal valuation multiples. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. BSM offers a high current yield backed by an asset-light royalty model, but the investment case depends on whether commodity prices, operator activity, and production volumes sustain the income stream and distribution over time. | Medium-low |
BSM AI stock forecast
The BSM AI stock forecast uses a three-year scenario model rather than a precise price promise. Using the $13.81 reference price, $1.27 TTM diluted EPS, 10% bull growth, 3% base growth, negative 5% bear growth, and terminal P/E multiples of 15x, 11x, and 8x produces model values of about $25.4, $15.3, and $8.7. The ranges below reflect wider uncertainty because commodity prices, operator drilling activity, production volumes, and distribution policy can shift quickly.
$22 to $30
More likely if oil and gas prices remain supportive, operator drilling activity on BSM acreage increases, production volumes grow, the company adds mineral interests through accretive acquisitions, and the market re-rates the stock to a mid-teens multiple reflecting stable or growing royalty income. The verified model value was about $25.4.
$13 to $18
More likely if commodity prices stay near current levels, operator activity remains steady, production volumes on mineral acreage decline gradually, distributions are maintained at the current rate, and the stock trades near its current P/E range. The verified model value was about $15.3.
$7 to $11
More likely if commodity prices decline, operator activity and drilling slow, production volumes fall, federal leasing policy tightens, the distribution is cut, and the stock re-rates to a single-digit P/E to reflect earnings and distribution risk. The verified model value was about $8.7.
BSM AI technical analysis
BSM AI technical analysis starts from the $13.81 close on July 10, 2026. Yahoo Finance and Google Finance report a 52-week range of $11.78 to $15.49, beta of 0.02 to 0.05, average volume of about 350,000 to 370,000 shares, and a trailing P/E of about 10.9. The stock has moved within a moderate range without a clear directional breakout. Technical levels should be checked against quarterly earnings, commodity price trends, distribution announcements, and mineral acquisition news.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $13.81 | NYSE closing price on July 10, 2026, used as the reference for this page. |
| Near support | $12.50 to $13.00 | This zone represents a potential support area between the current price and the lower end of recent trading. A close below this level would test lower support. |
| Secondary support | $11.78 to $12.00 | This zone aligns with the 52-week low of $11.78. A break below this level would signal a new downward phase. |
| Near resistance | $14.50 to $15.00 | The stock needs to clear this zone to build upward momentum toward the 52-week high. |
| 52-week high | $15.49 | A breakout above this level with volume would signal a new upward phase, but commodity price and production fundamentals would need to support the move. |
| Momentum | Low beta of 0.02 to 0.05 | The stock has near-zero correlation to broad market moves, so direction tends to be driven by oil and gas prices, operator activity, and company-specific factors. |
| Volume | Average about 350,000 to 370,000 shares | Volume is moderate for a mid-cap MLP. Material breakouts or breakdowns should be confirmed by above-average volume. |
| Volatility | Beta near zero; 52-week range $11.78 to $15.49 | Low beta suggests stock price is driven by commodity and company-specific factors rather than equity market direction, but oil and gas price shocks can still cause significant moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $11.78 with weaker commodity prices or distribution concern | A support break combined with lower oil and gas prices, reduced operator activity, a distribution reduction, or rising leverage would reduce confidence in the base case. |
BSM AI trading strategy
The BSM AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for an oil and gas mineral royalty MLP, not personalized advice. It should be monitored with live price, oil and gas price trends, quarterly production and royalty income, operator activity updates, distribution announcements, and balance sheet data.
For investors focused on the 8.7% dividend yield, monitor distributable cash flow coverage, royalty income trends, production volumes on mineral acreage, oil and gas price realizations, and management commentary on distribution policy. The distribution has been consistent, but royalty income can vary with commodity prices and operator drilling activity.
Reduce position confidence if distributable cash flow does not adequately cover the distribution, if commodity prices decline materially, if operator drilling activity slows significantly, or if management signals a distribution reduction.
If BSM approaches the $11.78 to $12.00 support area without a new fundamental warning, compare the price with TTM EPS of $1.27, book value per share of about $4.94, and the 8.7% dividend yield before treating the decline as a buying opportunity.
Do not treat a low P/E or high dividend yield as a price floor. Both can persist or deepen if commodity prices, production volumes, or distribution sustainability deteriorate further.
Track quarterly royalty income, production volumes by commodity type (oil vs natural gas), average realized prices, operator activity and drilling plans, mineral interest acquisitions, debt levels, distributable cash flow, and distribution coverage.
Lower the thesis score if royalty income declines on lower production or commodity prices, if operator activity decreases, if debt rises without a clear return on invested capital, or if the distribution coverage ratio drops below 1.0x on a sustained basis.
Investment research summary
Black Stone Minerals is paid by oil and gas operators to access its mineral acreage. Unlike E&P companies, BSM does not drill wells, operate production, or bear capital costs. Customers (operators) pay royalties on the oil and gas they produce, creating a pure cash-flow stream tied to commodity prices and operator activity. Duan Yongping style question: if the business had to be described in one sentence, it is a portfolio of U.S. mineral acres that generate royalty income without operating risk.
The moat comes from a large and geographically diversified mineral acreage position of 16.9 million gross acres across 41 states, a low-cost basis in mineral rights accumulated over a long history, and relationships with a broad set of operators. The moat is not as deep as a technology or brand moat because acreage is a depleting asset, and mineral rights can be acquired by competitors in the open market. Buffett style question: will the current acreage position and royalty income stream still generate excess returns in ten years as oil and gas production shifts and acreage depletes?
The thesis can fail through a sustained decline in oil and gas prices that reduces operator drilling activity and royalty income, production decline on existing acreage without accretive replacement acquisitions, changes in federal leasing or environmental policy that reduce available drilling locations, operator concentration risk if key tenants reduce activity, or a distribution cut that destroys the total return case. The most dangerous mistake is treating the high yield as bond-like income without monitoring commodity cycle risk and production volume trends.
Management has focused on building a diversified mineral and royalty portfolio through acquisitions, lease management, and returning capital to unitholders through distributions. The management team has experience in mineral rights, oil and gas law, and land management. Management question: if the CEO retired, would the mineral acquisition discipline and operator relationship management remain as effective?
The long-term trend for U.S. oil and gas production is mixed. The U.S. remains a major producer supported by Permian Basin and other shale plays, but the energy transition toward renewables and electric vehicles poses long-term demand questions for hydrocarbons. As a mineral owner, BSM benefits from operator drilling activity without bearing capital risk, but its income is tied to commodity prices and production volumes it does not control. Li Lu style question: in twenty years, will Black Stone Minerals still generate meaningful royalty income from its acreage, or will the energy transition reduce the value of mineral rights over time?
At $13.81, BSM trades near 10.9x TTM EPS, 2.80x book value, and offers an 8.7% dividend yield. The valuation appears inexpensive but reflects commodity price risk, production volume uncertainty, and the MLP structure. The verified three-year model spans about $8.7 in a bear case, $15.3 in a base case, and $25.4 in a bull case. Buffett and Duan style question: would the business remain attractive if the market closed for five years and oil prices fell to $50 per barrel?
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| BSM price and market capitalization | $13.81 closing price on July 10, 2026 and about $2.94 billion market capitalization | Yahoo Finance BSM summary page and Google Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 212.50 million shares, cross-checked between Yahoo Finance and Google Finance | Yahoo Finance and Google Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Market-cap verification | $13.83 x 212.50 million shares = about $2.94 billion, with 0.00% variance versus reported market cap | financial_rigor.py market-cap check | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | Approximately $410 million TTM revenue from oil and gas royalty income, cross-validated between Yahoo Finance and Google Finance | Yahoo Finance and Google Finance financials | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM net income and EPS | TTM net income approximately $268 million; TTM diluted EPS of $1.27 | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating results | $117.52 million revenue, $13.27 million net income, $0.28 diluted EPS, and EBITDA of $26.81 million | Google Finance quarterly financials | July 12, 2026 |
| Balance sheet highlights | $11.61 million total cash, debt-to-equity ratio of 17.42%, and levered free cash flow of $95.45 million (TTM) | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Dividend and yield | Quarterly distribution of $0.30 per unit, annualized $1.20, yielding approximately 8.69% | Yahoo Finance and Google Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM valuation inputs | TTM diluted EPS $1.27, book value per share approximately $4.94, levered free cash flow per share about $0.45, and dividend of $1.20 | Yahoo Finance and financial_rigor.py calculation | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation verification | About 10.9x PE, 2.80x PB, 30.7x P/FCF, 8.68% FCF yield, and 8.68% dividend yield using verified inputs | financial_rigor.py valuation check | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical inputs | 52-week range $11.78 to $15.49, beta 0.02 to 0.05, average volume 350,000 to 370,000 shares, trailing P/E 10.9x | Yahoo Finance and Google Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Business description | Black Stone Minerals owns mineral interests in approximately 16.9 million gross acres, nonparticipating royalty interests in 1.8 million gross acres, and overriding royalty interests in 1.6 million gross acres located in 41 states | Yahoo Finance profile | July 12, 2026 |
This BSM AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of July 12, 2026 and may be wrong if commodity prices, operator drilling activity, production volumes, mineral acquisition results, distribution policy, management decisions, or market conditions change.
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