Black Stone Minerals, L.P. research snapshot
BSM AI stock analysis currently reads Black Stone Minerals, L.P. as a mineral and royalty MLP that owns oil and natural gas mineral interests across approximately 16.9 million gross acres in 41 U.S. states, generating income from royalty payments without bearing drilling or operating costs. At the August 4, 2026 data cutoff, BSM closed at $15.05 on August 3, 2026, near its 52-week high of $15.49, with a verified market capitalization near $3.20 billion, TTM revenue of about $410 million, TTM net income attributable to common units near $268 million, and a distribution yield near 8.5%. The BSM AI stock forecast is scenario-based because royalty income depends on commodity prices, production volumes on its acreage, and operator activity, while the MLP structure supports a high distribution that may be sensitive to commodity cycles. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$15.05 NYSE close on August 3, 2026
Market cap
$3.20 billion verified market capitalization
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Asset-light oil and gas mineral and royalty MLP with high margins, a raised distribution, and improving oil price realizations, offset by declining production volumes and commodity price sensitivity
Trend status
Uptrend near the 52-week high of $15.49, up about 18% year to date and 31% over the past year, with price moves driven by oil and gas fundamentals and distribution announcements rather than broad equity market direction
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Black Stone Minerals owns mineral and royalty interests across a large U.S. acreage position. It earns income when third-party operators drill and produce oil and gas on its land, without bearing drilling costs or operating expenses. This asset-light model produced a profit margin near 72% on trailing revenue and supports a high payout, but the royalty stream depends on production volumes that BSM does not control. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from a large mineral acreage position of roughly 16.9 million gross acres across 41 states, a low-cost basis in mineral rights built since 1876, and operator relationships secured through multi-year development agreements. It is a resource-position advantage rather than a brand or network-effect moat, and acreage can be depleted over time without new acquisitions. | Medium |
| Management | Co-CEOs Taylor DeWalch and Fowler Carter lead a team focused on mineral acquisitions, lease management, development agreements, and distribution growth. In Q2 2026 management raised the distribution 7% to $0.32 per unit with coverage of about 1.18x, acquired roughly $48.7 million of mineral and royalty interests, and advanced development agreements with Adamas, Revenant, and Caturus. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 net income was $106.4 million, adjusted EBITDA was $91.3 million, and distributable cash flow was $80.4 million. Realized price per Boe rose to $37.82, up 17% year over year, but mineral and royalty production fell 9% quarter over quarter to 32.5 MBoe/d. TTM revenue is about $410 million with TTM net income attributable to common units near $268 million, and total debt was $168 million as of July 31, 2026. | High |
| Valuation | At $15.05, verified math gives about 11.9x TTM EPS of $1.27, 2.96x book value, 7.8x price to revenue, and a distribution yield near 8.5% on the new $1.28 annualized rate. The low P/E and high yield reflect commodity price sensitivity and declining production. The verified three-scenario model spans about $8.7 in a bear case to $24.0 in a bull case. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | BSM closed at $15.05 on August 3, 2026, near its 52-week high of $15.49 and up about 18% year to date. Beta near zero (0.02 to 0.05) indicates that price moves are driven by oil and gas prices, production updates, and distribution announcements rather than broad equity market direction. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate to elevated for a mineral royalty MLP. The main risks are natural gas price weakness and production decline, operator concentration in the Shelby Trough and Haynesville, commodity price cycles that reduce operator drilling activity and royalty income, federal leasing and environmental policy changes, distribution sustainability through commodity cycles, and leverage on the credit facility. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for reported Q2 2026 results, financial history, valuation math, balance sheet data, dividend record, and technical references. Medium for future commodity price paths, operator drilling activity, production volume trends, acreage acquisition costs, and terminal valuation multiples. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. BSM offers a high current yield, a raised distribution, and an asset-light royalty model, but the investment case depends on whether commodity prices, operator activity, and production volumes sustain the income stream and distribution coverage over time. | Medium-low |
BSM AI stock forecast
The BSM AI stock forecast uses a three-year scenario model rather than a precise price promise. Using the $15.05 reference price, $1.27 TTM diluted EPS, 8% bull growth, 3% base growth, negative 5% bear growth, and terminal P/E multiples of 15x, 12x, and 8x produces model values of about $24.0, $16.7, and $8.7. The ranges below reflect wider uncertainty because commodity prices, operator drilling activity, production volumes, and distribution policy can shift quickly.
$20 to $27
More likely if oil prices hold near current levels and natural gas prices recover, operator drilling activity on BSM acreage increases under the Adamas, Revenant, and Caturus development agreements, production volumes grow, the partnership continues accretive mineral acquisitions, and the market re-rates the stock toward a mid-teens multiple. The verified model value was about $24.0.
$14 to $19
More likely if commodity prices stay near current levels, operator activity remains steady, production volumes on mineral acreage decline gradually, the new $0.32 quarterly distribution is maintained with coverage above 1.0x, and the stock trades near its current P/E range. The verified model value was about $16.7.
$7 to $11
More likely if natural gas prices stay weak and oil prices fall, operator activity and drilling slow, production volumes decline faster than expected, federal leasing policy tightens, the distribution is cut, and the stock re-rates to a single-digit P/E to reflect earnings and distribution risk. The verified model value was about $8.7.
BSM AI technical analysis
BSM AI technical analysis starts from the $15.05 close on August 3, 2026. Yahoo Finance and Google Finance report a 52-week range of $11.78 to $15.49, beta of 0.02 to 0.05, average volume of about 310,000 to 360,000 shares, and a trailing P/E of about 11.9. The stock sits near the top of its 52-week range, up about 18% year to date and 31% over the past year. Technical levels should be checked against quarterly earnings, commodity price trends, distribution announcements, and mineral acquisition news.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $15.05 | NYSE closing price on August 3, 2026, used as the reference for this page. |
| Near resistance | $15.49 | The 52-week high. A breakout above this level on above-average volume would signal a new upward phase, but commodity price and production fundamentals would need to support the move. |
| Secondary resistance | $16.00 | The average one-year analyst price target. Clearance of the 52-week high would set up a test of this zone. |
| Near support | $14.60 to $14.75 | This zone marks the low of recent sessions and represents the first support under the current price. |
| Secondary support | $13.80 to $14.00 | A close below this zone would shift momentum and open the way toward deeper support levels. |
| Third support | $12.50 to $13.00 | This zone sits in the middle of the 52-week range and could act as a buying area if the pullback remains orderly. |
| 52-week low | $11.78 | A break below this level would signal a new downward phase for the stock. |
| Momentum | Positive near the 52-week high | BSM is up about 18% year to date and 31% over the past year. The near-zero beta means direction tends to be driven by oil and gas prices, operator activity, and company-specific factors. |
| Volume | Average about 310,000 to 360,000 shares | Volume is moderate for a mid-cap MLP. Material breakouts or breakdowns should be confirmed by above-average volume. |
| Volatility | Beta near zero; 52-week range $11.78 to $15.49 | Low beta suggests the stock price is driven by commodity and company-specific factors rather than equity market direction, but oil and gas price shocks can still cause significant moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $11.78 with weaker commodity prices or distribution concern | A support break combined with lower oil and gas prices, reduced operator activity, a distribution reduction, or rising leverage would reduce confidence in the base case. |
BSM AI trading strategy
The BSM AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for an oil and gas mineral royalty MLP, not personalized advice. It should be monitored with live price, oil and gas price trends, quarterly production and royalty income, operator activity updates, distribution announcements, and balance sheet data.
For investors focused on the distribution yield near 8.5%, monitor distributable cash flow coverage, royalty income trends, production volumes on mineral acreage, oil and gas price realizations, and management commentary on distribution policy. BSM raised the distribution to $0.32 per quarter for Q2 2026 with coverage of about 1.18x, but royalty income can vary with commodity prices and operator drilling activity.
Reduce position confidence if distributable cash flow does not adequately cover the distribution, if commodity prices decline materially, if operator drilling activity slows significantly, or if management signals a distribution reduction.
If BSM approaches the $13.80 to $14.00 support area without a new fundamental warning, compare the price with TTM EPS of $1.27, book value per share of about $5.08, and the near 8.5% distribution yield before treating the decline as a buying opportunity.
Do not treat a low P/E or high dividend yield as a price floor. Both can persist or deepen if commodity prices, production volumes, or distribution sustainability deteriorate further.
Track quarterly royalty income, production volumes by commodity type (oil vs natural gas), average realized prices, operator activity and drilling plans under the Adamas, Revenant, and Caturus agreements, mineral interest acquisitions, debt levels, distributable cash flow, and distribution coverage.
Lower the thesis score if royalty income declines on lower production or commodity prices, if operator activity decreases, if debt rises without a clear return on invested capital, or if the distribution coverage ratio drops below 1.0x on a sustained basis.
Investment research summary
Black Stone Minerals is paid by oil and gas operators to access its mineral acreage. Unlike E&P companies, BSM does not drill wells, operate production, or bear capital costs. Customers (operators) pay royalties on the oil and gas they produce, creating a pure cash-flow stream tied to commodity prices and operator activity. In one sentence, it is a portfolio of U.S. mineral acres that generate royalty income without operating risk.
The moat comes from a large and geographically diversified mineral acreage position of about 16.9 million gross acres across 41 states, a low-cost basis in mineral rights accumulated since 1876, and operator relationships secured through multi-year development agreements. The moat is not as deep as a technology or brand moat because acreage is a depleting asset and mineral rights can be acquired by competitors in the open market. Will the current acreage position and royalty income stream still generate excess returns in ten years as production shifts and acreage depletes?
The thesis can fail through a sustained decline in oil and gas prices that reduces operator drilling activity and royalty income, production decline on existing acreage without accretive replacement acquisitions, operator concentration in the Shelby Trough and Haynesville, a distribution cut that destroys the total return case, or rising leverage on the credit facility. The most dangerous mistake is treating the high yield as bond-like income without monitoring commodity cycle risk, production volume trends, and distribution coverage.
Co-CEOs Taylor DeWalch and Fowler Carter have focused on mineral acquisitions, lease management, development agreements, and returning capital to unitholders. In Q2 2026 they raised the distribution 7% to $0.32 per unit, bought about $48.7 million of mineral and royalty interests, and advanced development agreements with Adamas, Revenant, and Caturus. Management question: if the co-CEOs retired, would the mineral acquisition discipline and operator relationship management remain as effective?
The long-term trend for U.S. oil and gas production is mixed. The U.S. remains a major producer supported by the Permian Basin and other shale plays, while gas development in the Shelby Trough and Haynesville is an important driver for BSM. The energy transition toward renewables poses long-term demand questions for hydrocarbons. As a mineral owner, BSM benefits from operator drilling activity without bearing capital risk, but its income is tied to commodity prices and production volumes it does not control. In twenty years, will Black Stone Minerals still generate meaningful royalty income from its acreage, or will the energy transition reduce the value of mineral rights over time?
At $15.05, BSM trades near 11.9x TTM EPS, 2.96x book value, and offers a distribution yield near 8.5%. The valuation appears inexpensive but reflects commodity price risk, production volume uncertainty, and the MLP structure. The verified three-year model spans about $8.7 in a bear case, $16.7 in a base case, and $24.0 in a bull case. Would the business remain attractive if the market closed for five years and oil prices fell?
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| BSM price and market capitalization | $15.05 closing price on August 3, 2026 and about $3.20 billion market capitalization | Yahoo Finance BSM summary page and Google Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 212.50 million common units, cross-checked between Yahoo Finance and Google Finance | Yahoo Finance and Google Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Market-cap verification | $15.05 x 212.50 million units = about $3.20 billion, with 0.00% variance versus reported market cap | financial_rigor.py market-cap check | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | TTM revenue approximately $410 million; TTM net income attributable to common units about $268 million | Yahoo Finance statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM diluted EPS | TTM diluted EPS of $1.27, cross-checked with Google Finance EPS of $1.26 | Yahoo Finance and Google Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | Net income of $106.4 million, $0.47 diluted EPS, $91.3 million adjusted EBITDA, and $80.4 million distributable cash flow for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 | Black Stone Minerals Q2 2026 press release (Business Wire) | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 production and pricing | Mineral and royalty production of 32.5 MBoe/d (72% natural gas), down 9% from the prior quarter; realized price of $37.82 per Boe, up 17% year over year; realized oil price of $87.08 per barrel and natural gas price of $3.07 per Mcf | Black Stone Minerals Q2 2026 press release (Business Wire) | August 4, 2026 |
| Distribution and yield | Quarterly distribution of $0.32 per unit, $1.28 annualized, a 7% increase over the prior quarter, with coverage of about 1.18x; ex-dividend date August 6, 2026, payable August 13, 2026 | Black Stone Minerals press release, Yahoo Finance, and Google Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Balance sheet highlights | Total debt of $196.0 million at June 30, 2026, reduced to $168.0 million with $1.9 million of cash as of July 31, 2026; borrowing base of $580 million with commitments of $375 million | Black Stone Minerals Q2 2026 press release (Business Wire) | August 4, 2026 |
| Acquisition activity | $48.7 million of additional mineral and royalty interests acquired in Q2 2026; $299.7 million of acquisitions completed from September 2023 through June 2026 | Black Stone Minerals Q2 2026 press release (Business Wire) | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation verification | About 11.9x PE, 2.96x PB, 7.8x price to revenue, and 8.5% dividend yield using verified inputs | financial_rigor.py valuation check | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst view | Average one-year price target of $16.00, with RBC Capital at Sector Perform, Piper Sandler at Hold, and KeyBanc at Hold | Yahoo Finance and Google Finance analyst pages | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical inputs | 52-week range $11.78 to $15.49, beta 0.02 to 0.05, average volume 310,000 to 360,000 shares, trailing P/E about 11.9 | Yahoo Finance and Google Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Business description | Black Stone Minerals owns mineral interests in approximately 16.9 million gross acres, nonparticipating royalty interests in 1.8 million gross acres, and overriding royalty interests in 1.6 million gross acres located in 41 states | Yahoo Finance profile | August 4, 2026 |
This BSM AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of August 4, 2026 and may be wrong if commodity prices, operator drilling activity, production volumes, mineral acquisition results, distribution policy, management decisions, or market conditions change.
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