Box, Inc. research snapshot
BOX AI stock analysis reads Box Inc. as a cloud content management and intelligent workflow platform whose Q1 FY2027 report delivered the first double-digit revenue growth in over twelve quarters, record bookings, a raised full-year outlook, and continued margin expansion, while the stock still carries a Hold consensus, two Sell ratings, elevated short interest, and a premium valuation that already prices in continued execution. At the August 4, 2026 data cutoff, BOX traded near $31.63 at the August 3, 12:21 PM EDT reading with a verified market capitalization near $4.38 billion. This page uses scenario ranges and source checks, not a certain stock price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$31.63 at the August 3, 2026, 12:21 PM EDT reading, up 0.08 or 0.25% from the $31.55 July 31 close, after opening at $32.08
Market cap
$4.38 billion, verified as $31.63 x 138.53 million shares outstanding
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Growth re-acceleration story trading at a premium multiple
Trend status
Bullish short-term trend above the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, approaching the 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Box sells cloud content management, secure collaboration, e-signature, workflow automation, and Box AI features to enterprises on a subscription basis, with TTM revenue near $1.21 billion, Q1 FY2027 revenue growth of 11% year over year, a 81.5% non-GAAP gross margin, and a 27.7% non-GAAP operating margin. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat is narrow but improving. Enterprise Advanced carries a 30% to 40% price premium over Enterprise Plus and its net retention rate runs above the 105% company average, but Microsoft SharePoint, Google Drive, and Dropbox still offer overlapping functionality, often bundled into platform subscriptions. | Low-medium |
| Management | Co-founder CEO Aaron Levie and co-founder CFO Dylan Smith have delivered four consecutive quarters of accelerating revenue growth, record Q1 bookings, the first double-digit growth rate since fiscal 2023, a raised full-year outlook, a $500 million buyback expansion, and disciplined margin execution. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q1 FY2027 revenue of $306 million was up 11% year over year, billings rose 5% as reported and 13% in constant currency, operating margin reached 27.7%, net retention hit 105%, RPO reached $1.6 billion up 12%, and free cash flow hit a record $128 million. Full-year FY2027 guidance was raised to about $1.28 billion revenue and about $1.56 adjusted EPS. | High |
| Valuation | At $31.63, BOX trades at about 49x trailing GAAP EPS, 19.5x forward adjusted earnings, 3.6x sales, and 12.1x free cash flow, which is a premium relative to slower-growing SaaS peers and already above the $33.00 average analyst target. | Medium |
| Technical trend | Technical snapshots were bullish as of the August 3, 2026 cutoff, with the stock above its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, a 14-day RSI near 62.8 on Barchart and 65.0 on StockAnalysis.com, and the 52-week high of $33.88 as the next overhead level. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks include platform competition from Microsoft and Google, elevated short interest of 10.53% of shares outstanding, negative common equity of about $338 million, stock-based compensation and preferred stock dividends that depress GAAP EPS, FX headwinds of 90 to 150 basis points, the premium multiple compressing, enterprise spending cycles, and the unproven durability of the AI workflow acceleration. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for confirmed financials and market data, medium for forward scenarios and technical levels. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The page frames scenarios and monitoring rules, not a buy or sell instruction. | Medium |
BOX AI stock forecast
The BOX AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $31.63 August 3, 2026 reading and the FY2027 adjusted EPS consensus of $1.58. The three-scenario framework produced a bearish area near $26, a base area near $37, and a bullish area near $50 over three years, using adjusted EPS growth of 5%, 9%, and 13% and exit multiples of 14x, 18x, and 22x. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
$44 to $52
More likely if Box sustains double-digit revenue growth, Enterprise Advanced adoption keeps driving net retention above 105%, AI unit and API monetization become a material revenue line, and the market holds the stock near a 20x to 22x forward multiple as the AI workflow narrative broadens.
$33 to $40
More likely if Box compounds revenue in the high single digits, keeps operating margin near 28%, holds net retention at 105%, and investors value the stock near an 18x forward multiple in line with the FY2027 consensus EPS of $1.58.
$23 to $29
More likely if revenue growth decelerates toward low single digits, Microsoft or Google bundle competing content management features that erode win rates, AI monetization disappoints, net retention falls below 103%, or the market compresses the multiple toward the low end of the analyst range near $25.
BOX AI technical analysis
BOX AI technical analysis is bullish as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff. The stock traded at $31.63 at 12:21 PM EDT on August 3, up 0.08 or 0.25% from the $31.55 July 31 close within a day range near $31.58 to $32.65, above its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, with a 14-day RSI near 62.8 on Barchart and 65.0 on StockAnalysis.com and a 14-day ADX near 23.96 showing a developing trend. The 52-week high of $33.88 is the next overhead resistance after the post-earnings rally pushed the stock roughly 23% above its 50-day average.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $31.63 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the August 3, 2026, 12:21 PM EDT reading, up 0.08 or 0.25% from the $31.55 July 31 close within a day range near $31.58 to $32.65 after opening at $32.08; the reported $4.38 billion market cap matches $31.63 times 138.53 million shares outstanding. |
| 5-day moving average | $31.66 | Barchart reported the 5-day moving average near $31.66 on August 3, 2026, essentially at the current price, a pivot zone for very short-term momentum. |
| Near support | $30.00 to $30.10 | Barchart placed the 20-day moving average near $30.10 on August 3, 2026, a natural first pullback support zone. |
| Next support | $27.70 to $27.80 | Barchart reported the 50-day moving average near $27.73 and StockAnalysis.com near $27.75 on August 3, 2026, a support cluster that marks the core of the post-earnings rally base. |
| 200-day moving average | $27.24 | Barchart reported the 200-day moving average near $27.24 and StockAnalysis.com near $27.25 on August 3, 2026, below price and confirming the longer-term recovery. |
| Near resistance | $32.65 to $33.88 | The day high of $32.65 is minor overhead, with the 52-week high of $33.88 as the main resistance and breakout level to watch. |
| Momentum | RSI near 63 to 65, ADX near 24 | 14-day RSI was near 62.84 on Barchart and 65.00 on StockAnalysis.com on August 3, 2026, strong but not overbought, with a 14-day ADX near 23.96 signaling a trend that is building but not yet extreme. |
| Volume | About 2.6 million average shares | Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 2.69 million shares and StockAnalysis.com near 2.63 million on August 3, 2026, with the 5-day average near 2.21 million, useful for judging breakout quality. |
| Volatility | Elevated near earnings | Barchart reported 14-day historic volatility near 47.2% and a 14-day ATR near $1.20 or 3.79%, so position sizing should account for larger swings around the August 25 Q2 report. |
| Invalidation | Close below $30.10 | A decisive close below the 20-day moving average near $30.10 would weaken the short-term uptrend, and a close below the 50-day near $27.73 would break the recovery base. |
BOX AI trading strategy
The BOX AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for trading and watching the re-acceleration story. It is not personal advice and should be paired with fresh chart data, filings, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch for BOX to hold above the 20-day moving average near $30.10 and to clear the $32.65 to $33.88 zone on volume above average, with momentum confirmed by the August 25 Q2 FY2027 report and raised full-year guidance.
A daily close below $30.10 or a failed attempt at the 52-week high should trigger a stop and review.
If BOX pulls back toward the $27.70 to $30.10 support cluster without a guidance cut, compare the price reaction with Q2 results, billings, net retention, and AI monetization commentary before assuming support is durable.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule because a 10.53% short interest and earnings-driven moves can turn a support zone into a falling knife.
Track revenue growth, billings, net retention rate, remaining performance obligations, Enterprise Advanced adoption, AI unit and API monetization, gross margin, operating margin, free cash flow, buyback pace, and competitive win-loss trends against Microsoft and Google.
Reduce confidence if revenue growth falls back below 8%, net retention drops below 104%, or margin expansion stalls because of FX headwinds or reinvestment needs.
Investment research summary
Box helps enterprises securely manage, share, collaborate on, and automate workflows around their content in the cloud. Customers pay because Box centralizes files, provides governance and compliance controls, integrates with existing business applications, and increasingly connects enterprise content to AI agents through products like Box Agent, Box Extract, Box Automate, and Box Apps.
The moat is narrow but improving. Box has enterprise workflow integrations, compliance certifications, admin governance surfaces, a 30% to 40% price premium for Enterprise Advanced, and a Box AI platform, but Microsoft SharePoint, Google Drive, and Dropbox offer overlapping functionality, often at lower or bundled prices.
The thesis fails if Box revenue growth decelerates back toward low single digits, Microsoft or Google bundle competing content management features that erode win rates, Box AI and Enterprise Advanced fail to generate durable incremental revenue, net retention falls, the premium multiple compresses, or FX headwinds and stock-based compensation obscure the true profitability trend.
Founder-led management has delivered four consecutive quarters of accelerating revenue growth, record Q1 bookings, the first double-digit growth rate since fiscal 2023, and a raised FY2027 outlook. Key questions include whether the AI workflow momentum can persist, whether billings can keep up with revenue, and whether the ~$114 million of Q1 buybacks and the $500 million expansion signal durable conviction.
Enterprise content sits at the center of the agentic AI strategy conversation, and Box is positioning itself as the secure content layer for AI agents plus a workflow automation platform. The category is still exposed to platform bundling from Microsoft and Google, so Box must keep differentiating through governance, compliance, and AI feature depth.
At roughly 3.6x TTM revenue, 19.5x forward adjusted earnings, and 12.1x free cash flow, BOX trades at a premium that assumes continued growth acceleration and margin expansion. Margin of safety is limited because the price already sits above the $33.00 average analyst target and near the 52-week high, so a meaningful safety margin would require a pullback toward the $27 to $30 zone.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| BOX price | $31.63 at the August 3, 2026, 12:21 PM EDT reading, up 0.08 or 0.25% from the $31.55 July 31 close, within a day range near $31.58 to $32.65, after opening at $32.08 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $4.38 billion, reported by StockAnalysis.com and verified as $31.63 x 138.53 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis.com quote and share statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM revenue (May 2025 to Apr 2026) | Approximately $1.21 billion, consistent with the StockAnalysis.com overview figure and the geographic breakdown (United States $748.59M, Japan $307.55M, outside US and Japan $150.78M for a total of about $1,207M) | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM GAAP net income | $95.45 million attributable to common stockholders, with total GAAP net income before preferred stock allocation of about $124.92 million | StockAnalysis.com statistics and income statement | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM GAAP EPS (diluted) | $0.65 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 138.53 million shares per StockAnalysis.com, with 138,450 thousand shares issued and outstanding per the Q1 FY2027 Form 10-Q cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics and SEC Q1 FY2027 Form 10-Q | August 4, 2026 |
| P/E ratio (GAAP TTM) | 49.06x | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Forward valuation | Forward PE 19.54x, PS 3.62x, forward PS 3.35x, P/FCF 12.06x, PEG 2.10x | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | $4.46 billion, with EV/Sales 3.69x, EV/EBITDA 31.94x, and EV/FCF 12.29x | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2027 results | Revenue of $306 million up 11% year over year (10% constant currency), billings of $255 million up 5% as reported and 13% constant currency, non-GAAP gross margin of 81.5% up 100 basis points, non-GAAP operating margin of 27.7% up 240 basis points, non-GAAP EPS of $0.37, net retention of 105%, and record free cash flow of $128 million | Box Q1 FY2027 earnings release and earnings call | May 26, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2027 GAAP results | GAAP revenue of $305.94 million, GAAP income from operations of $27.44 million, GAAP net income of $17.73 million, net income attributable to common stockholders of $11.91 million, and diluted GAAP EPS of $0.08 | Box Q1 FY2027 Form 10-Q | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2027 balance sheet | Cash and cash equivalents of $378.84 million, short-term investments of $98.21 million, total assets of $1,421.65 million, non-current debt of $451.61 million, and total common stockholders deficit of about $338.36 million | Box Q1 FY2027 Form 10-Q | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2027 guidance (raised) | Revenue raised to approximately $1.28 billion, up 9% year over year (10% constant currency), gross margin of 81% to 81.5%, operating margin of approximately 28% (28.7% constant currency), adjusted EPS of approximately $1.56 ($1.64 constant currency), and weighted diluted shares of about 139 million | Box Q1 FY2027 earnings call | May 26, 2026 |
| Q2 FY2027 guidance | Revenue of approximately $319 million, up about 9% year over year (10% constant currency), gross margin of 81% to 81.5%, operating margin of approximately 28.5%, and adjusted EPS of approximately $0.39 | Box Q1 FY2027 earnings call | May 26, 2026 |
| Bookings and backlog | Record Q1 bookings, RPO of $1.6 billion up 12% year over year (16% constant currency), short-term RPO up 8% (12% constant currency), and roughly 55% of RPO expected to be recognized over the next 12 months | Box Q1 FY2027 earnings call | May 26, 2026 |
| Customer metrics | Net retention rate of 105% in Q1, up from 102% a year ago, with Enterprise Advanced net retention above the company average, a 30% to 40% price premium for Enterprise Advanced over Enterprise Plus, suites customers at 67% of revenue up from 61%, customers paying $100,000 or more annually up 11%, and annualized full churn of 3% | Box Q1 FY2027 earnings call | May 26, 2026 |
| Capital returns | Repurchased 4.8 million shares for approximately $114 million in Q1, announced a $500 million expansion of the buyback program in March 2026, and had approximately $445 million of remaining buyback capacity as of April 30, 2026 | Box Q1 FY2027 earnings call and Form 10-Q | May 26, 2026 |
| Cash flow | TTM operating cash flow of $369.58 million and TTM free cash flow of about $362.55 million per the statistics page (about $368.31 million per the cash flow statement page), with Q1 free cash flow of $128 million | StockAnalysis.com statistics and cash flow statement | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2026 revenue | $1.18 billion, up 7.99% from $1.09 billion in FY2025 | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 4, 2026 |
| Short interest | 14.58 million shares short, 10.53% of shares outstanding and 10.94% of float, with about 5.96 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week range and performance | 52-week range of $21.34 to $33.88, up 2.31% over the trailing 52 weeks, beta 0.72 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold with an average target of $33.00 across 10 analysts, median $32.50, low $25, and high $45 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 3 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, 4 Hold, 2 Sell out of 10 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | August 4, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Bank of America Securities raised to $37 from $33 with a Buy rating on July 22, 2026, Citi maintained $37 on June 25, D.A. Davidson maintained $45 on June 1 and added BOX to its Best-of-Breed Bison List, Raymond James maintained a Buy rating, and Monness maintained a Hold rating | StockAnalysis.com forecast and news feed | August 4, 2026 |
| 2026 and 2027 consensus estimates | FY2027 revenue estimate of $1.28 billion with adjusted EPS of $1.58, FY2028 revenue estimate of $1.39 billion with adjusted EPS of $1.80, a 3-year revenue growth forecast of 8.14%, and a 3-year EPS growth forecast of 23.23% | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| Next earnings date | August 25, 2026, after market close, for Q2 FY2027 | StockAnalysis.com earnings calendar | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA near $31.66, 20-day SMA near $30.10, 50-day SMA near $27.73, 100-day SMA near $25.95, 200-day SMA near $27.24, 14-day RSI near 62.84 on Barchart and 65.00 on StockAnalysis.com, 14-day ADX near 23.96, and 14-day historic volatility near 47.2% | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 4, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell BOX stock. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data, technical snapshots, and stated assumptions as of the data cutoff date and may be wrong. Always verify current filings, prices, risks, and personal suitability before making financial decisions.
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