Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. research snapshot
BFH AI stock analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff reads Bread Financial Holdings as a credit services business in a visible turnaround: Q2 2026 revenue rose 7% year over year, credit sales grew 11%, end-of-period loans rose 5%, net income was $146 million, delinquency and net loss rates improved sharply, and management raised 2026 loan, revenue, and net loss rate guidance. The stock traded at $111.30 on August 3, 2026 at 12:38 PM EDT, up 3.23 or 2.99% from the $108.07 July 31 close, within a session range reported near $108.80 to $111.94, carrying a market capitalization near $4.28 billion verified as $111.30 times 38.42 million shares. The valuation is low at about 8.5 to 8.7 times trailing earnings, 1.28 times book value, and 1.95 times free cash flow, with a large net cash position near $398 million. The main questions are whether loan growth and improving credit can continue, how the CFPB late fee rule and broader consumer environment play out, and whether the single-digit multiple reflects a real discount or a value trap. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$111.30 at the August 3, 2026, 12:38 PM EDT reading, up 3.23 or 2.99% from the $108.07 July 31 close, after opening at $108.80 within a session range reported near $108.80 to $111.94
Market cap
$4.28 billion
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
Improving credit cycle at a single-digit earnings multiple
Trend status
Bullish trend above the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, up about 88% over the trailing 52 weeks and near the 52-week high of $111.66
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Bread Financial originates and services private label and co-brand credit card programs through Comenity Bank and Comenity Capital Bank, plus Bread Pay, installment, and split-pay products, earning interest, fees, and interchange from a mostly subprime and near-prime consumer base, with TTM revenue near $2.67 billion and Q2 2026 revenue up 7% year over year. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from long-term retail partner contracts, switching costs in card program infrastructure, scale in private label card servicing, deposit-based funding now 50% from direct-to-consumer deposits, and data on cardholder behavior, but partner contracts can be lost and private label credit is competitive. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Ralph Andretta and CFO Perry Beberman are executing a transformation: Q2 2026 delivered $146 million net income, 7% revenue growth, 11% credit sales growth, a $135 million preferred issuance, $241 million of share repurchases, and guidance raises, while chief commercial officer Valerie Greer announced retirement effective with a transition period. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | The trend has turned. TTM revenue is about $2.67 billion up 8.9%, TTM net income near $566 to $569 million, average loans rose 3% to $18.2 billion, end-of-period loans rose 5% to $18.5 billion, adjusted PPNR grew 11%, and the net loss rate improved 90 basis points year over year to 6.98%. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At about 8.5 to 8.7 times trailing earnings, 1.28 times book value, 1.95 times free cash flow, and a 0.83% dividend yield, BFH trades well below the market average, which partly reflects consumer credit sensitivity and regulatory overhang rather than a clear bargain. | Medium |
| Technical trend | BFH is in a strong uptrend, up about 87.75% over the trailing 52 weeks and about 50% year to date, trading above the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages of roughly $108.93, $102.11, $99.35, $90.20, and $80.33, with 14-day RSI near 67.9 on Barchart and 63.23 on StockAnalysis.com. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are CFPB late fee regulation, consumer credit deterioration in a weaker economy, partner concentration and contract losses, competition from BNPL and fintech, macro effects from inflation and fuel prices, and regulatory actions that could limit interest, late fee, or interchange income. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and cross-checked math that matched across StockAnalysis.com, Barchart, the Q2 2026 earnings release, the June 2026 performance update, and the earnings call transcript. Lower for forward estimates because credit timing, regulatory outcomes, and consumer behavior are uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The page gives a research framework and scenario ranges, not a buy or sell instruction, and the outcome range is wider than the low multiple suggests. | Medium |
BFH AI stock forecast
The BFH AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $111.30 August 3, 2026 reading and the FY2026 adjusted EPS consensus of $12.22. The three-scenario framework produced a bearish area near $73, a base area near $124, and a bullish area near $163 over three years, using adjusted EPS growth of 0%, 6%, and 10% and exit multiples of 6x, 8x, and 10x. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
$145 to $175
More likely if loan growth stays at low to mid single digits or accelerates, credit quality keeps improving toward the 6% net loss rate target, DTC deposits keep cutting funding costs, CFPB impact stays manageable, and the market re-rates BFH toward a 10x forward multiple.
$110 to $135
More likely if average loan growth holds around low to mid single digits, the 7.0% to 7.1% net loss rate guidance is met, revenue keeps growing in low single digits, and the stock trades in an 8x to 9x earnings range with rising book value.
$60 to $85
More likely if consumer credit deteriorates, the CFPB late fee rule or a broader interest rate cap has a material earnings impact, credit sales slow as the July pullback extends, partner contracts are lost, or loan growth stalls and the multiple compresses toward 6x.
BFH AI technical analysis
BFH AI technical analysis is bullish as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff. The stock traded at $111.30 at 12:38 PM EDT on August 3, up 3.23 or 2.99% from the $108.07 July 31 close, above the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages of roughly $108.93, $102.11, $99.35, $90.20, and $80.33, with 14-day RSI near 67.9 on Barchart and 63.23 on StockAnalysis.com, and 14-day ADX near 22.58 confirming trend strength. The stock is up about 88% over the trailing 52 weeks and near the 52-week high of $111.66.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $111.30 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the August 3, 2026, 12:38 PM EDT reading, up 3.23 or 2.99% from the $108.07 July 31 close within a session range reported near $108.80 to $111.94 after opening at $108.80; the reported $4.28 billion market cap matches the price times 38.42 million shares. |
| 5-day moving average | $108.93 | Barchart reported the 5-day moving average near $108.93 on August 3, 2026, just below the current price, a short-term pivot after the post-earnings rally. |
| Near support | $100 to $103 | Barchart placed the 20-day moving average near $102.11 as of August 3, 2026, with the 50-day near $99.35, forming a natural first pullback support zone. |
| Secondary support | $88 to $92 | Barchart reported the 100-day moving average near $90.20 on August 3, 2026, a medium-term trend reference below the current price. |
| Long-term support | $78 to $82 | Barchart reported the 200-day moving average near $80.33 on August 3, 2026. A sustained break below this zone would question the long-term uptrend. |
| Near resistance | $111 to $112 | The stock is testing the 52-week high area near $111.66, with an August 3 intraday high near $111.94. A clean break above this zone opens room to retest round-number and psychological levels. |
| Momentum | RSI near 68, ADX near 22.6 | 14-day RSI was near 67.9 on Barchart and 63.23 on StockAnalysis.com on August 3, 2026, strong but not yet overbought, with 14-day ADX near 22.58 confirming a moderate trending move. |
| Volume | About 690,000 to 695,000 average shares | Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 695,281 shares and StockAnalysis.com near 685,755 on August 3, 2026, useful for judging breakout participation. |
| Volatility | Elevated, beta 1.13 | Barchart reported 20-day historical volatility near 39.27% and 14-day ATR near $3.75, so position sizing should account for larger swings around earnings and credit data. |
| Invalidation | Close below $102, then $99 | A decisive close below the 20-day moving average near $102.11 would weaken the near-term uptrend; a close below the 50-day near $99.35 would turn the setup bearish. |
BFH AI trading strategy
The BFH AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for trading and watching the turnaround. It is not personal advice and should be paired with fresh chart data, filings, credit metrics, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch for BFH to hold above the 20-day moving average near $102 and to break and hold above the $111 to $112 area with rising volume before treating the breakout as confirmed.
A daily close below the 20-day moving average near $102.11 or a failed attempt at the 52-week high should trigger a stop and review.
If BFH pulls back toward the $99 to $103 support zone without a credit or regulatory break, compare the price reaction with monthly delinquency and net loss rate data, CFPB rule status, and Q3 loan growth before acting.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule because consumer credit headlines can turn a support zone into a value trap.
Track monthly credit performance updates, the net loss rate path toward 6%, average loan and revenue growth, DTC deposit funding mix, CFPB late fee rule status, buyback pace, and partner additions or losses.
Reduce confidence if the net loss rate guidance of 7.0% to 7.1% is at risk, credit sales growth stalls, or regulatory developments have a material earnings impact.
Investment research summary
Bread Financial issues and services private label and co-brand credit cards for retailers plus Bread Pay and general purpose products, earning interest, fees, and interchange from a mostly subprime and near-prime consumer base, funded increasingly by direct-to-consumer deposits.
The moat is built on long-term retail partner agreements, card program servicing infrastructure, deposit-based funding through Comenity banks, and scale in private label credit, but partner contracts can be lost and subprime lending is competitive.
The thesis can fail if CFPB late fee regulation or a broader rate cap cuts fee income, consumer credit deteriorates in a weaker economy, retail partners switch providers, credit sales growth stalls as the July industry pullback extends, or the low multiple turns out to reflect a shrinking earnings base.
Ralph Andretta and Perry Beberman have been simplifying the company and rotating capital from legacy assets into card services and deposits, with Q2 2026 showing 7% revenue growth, 11% credit sales growth, a preferred issuance, $241 million of buybacks, and raised guidance. Chief commercial officer Valerie Greer is retiring after a transition period.
Private label credit faces structural pressure from BNPL, agentic commerce, and regulatory scrutiny on late fees and interchange, but retail partners still need card programs to drive loyalty, and 65% of Bread cardholders now have a prime score above 650.
At about 8.5 to 8.7 times trailing earnings, 1.28 times book value, and 1.95 times free cash flow, BFH is cheap on headline metrics, but the stock already repriced sharply. Margin of safety depends on credit continuing to improve and the regulatory picture staying manageable.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| BFH price | $111.30 at the August 3, 2026, 12:38 PM EDT reading, up 3.23 or 2.99% from the $108.07 July 31 close, within a session range reported near $108.80 to $111.94, after opening at $108.80 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $4.28 billion, reported by StockAnalysis.com and verified by financial_rigor.py as $111.30 times 38.42 million shares with a 0.09% deviation | StockAnalysis.com quote and financial_rigor.py | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 net income and EPS | Net income of $146 million and diluted EPS of $3.55, with net income up $7 million or 5% year over year | Bread Financial Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call | July 23, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue and loans | Revenue up 7% year over year, average loans up 3% to $18.2 billion, end-of-period loans up 5% to $18.5 billion, credit sales up 11% year over year | Bread Financial Q2 2026 earnings call | July 23, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 credit metrics | Delinquency rate of 5.25% down 48 bps year over year and 34 bps sequentially, net loss rate of 6.98% down 90 bps year over year and 35 bps sequentially, reserve rate of 11.23% improved 66 bps year over year | Bread Financial Q2 2026 earnings call and June 2026 performance update | July 23, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 capital actions | Issued $135 million of 8.875% preferred stock, repurchased 2.8 million shares or $241 million, ended with $449 million remaining under the repurchase authorization and a CET1 ratio of 12.9% | Bread Financial Q2 2026 earnings call | July 23, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 funding and liquidity | Direct-to-consumer deposits up 16% year over year to $9.4 billion, now 50% of funding mix up from 45%, deposits at 80% of total funding, total liquid assets and undrawn facilities of $6.7 billion near 30% of total assets | Bread Financial Q2 2026 earnings call | July 23, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance update | Full-year 2026 average loan growth raised to low to mid single digits, total revenue growth raised to low to mid single digits, NIM flat to slightly higher, net loss rate guidance improved to 7.0% to 7.1% from the low end of 7.2% to 7.4% | Bread Financial Q2 2026 earnings call | July 23, 2026 |
| June 2026 monthly credit data | End-of-period credit card and other loans of $18.477 billion, average loans of $18.357 billion up 4.1% year over year, net principal losses of $104 million with a 6.88% net principal loss rate, 30+ day delinquency principal of $859 million with a 5.25% delinquency rate | Bread Financial June 2026 performance update | July 23, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and earnings | TTM revenue of $2.67 billion up 8.9%, TTM net income near $566 to $569 million, TTM EPS near $12.76 to $12.82, with FY2025 revenue of $2.60 billion up 6.64% and FY2025 net income of $518 million | StockAnalysis.com financials and statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Cash and net cash | Cash and equivalents of $3.68 billion, total debt of $3.29 billion, and net cash of about $398 million or $10.36 per share | StockAnalysis.com statistics and balance sheet | August 4, 2026 |
| Book value | Book value of $3.37 billion with book value per share of $86.95, and tangible book value per common share of $63.66 up 22% year over year per the Q2 2026 earnings call | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Bread Financial Q2 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation check | PE ratio of 8.48, forward PE of 8.66, PEG of 0.66, PS ratio of 1.60, price/book of 1.24, price/tangible book of 1.61, price/FCF of 1.95, with financial_rigor.py verifying PE near 8.72x, PB near 1.28x, and P/FCF near 1.95x at the $111.30 price | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financial_rigor.py | August 4, 2026 |
| Return and margin metrics | ROE of 17.42%, ROA of 2.57%, operating margin of 27.89%, pretax margin of 25.60%, and profit margin of 21.36% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Dividend | Annual dividend of $0.92 with a 0.83% yield, quarterly payout of $0.23, payout ratio of 7.21%, dividend growth of 9.52% year over year, ex-dividend date August 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com dividend history | August 4, 2026 |
| Share count | 38.42 million shares outstanding, down 10.68% year over year and 5.79% quarter over quarter, with a float of 37.77 million shares | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average price target of $113.07 across 17 analysts, low $79 and high $132, median $115 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 7 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, 8 Hold, 1 Sell out of 17 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | August 4, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | UBS raised to $127 from $120 on August 3, Seaport Research to $119 from $113 on July 27, Morgan Stanley to $107 from $102 on July 24, TD Cowen to $114 from $103 on July 24, Barclays to $109 from $104, and BofA to $115 from $106 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and news feed | August 4, 2026 |
| 2026 and 2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 adjusted EPS estimate of $12.22 and FY2027 adjusted EPS estimate of $13.37, with a forward PE near 9.11 on the forecast page basis | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week range and performance | 52-week range of $53.83 to $111.66, up 87.75% over the trailing 52 weeks, about 50.20% year to date, beta of 1.13 | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA near $108.93, 20-day SMA near $102.11, 50-day SMA near $99.35, 100-day SMA near $90.20, 200-day SMA near $80.33, 14-day RSI near 67.9 on Barchart and 63.23 on StockAnalysis.com, 14-day ADX near 22.58, 20-day historical volatility near 39.27% | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 4, 2026 |
This BFH AI stock analysis is an informational research tool for education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots, and third-party data as of the stated cutoff date and can be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, credit data, regulatory changes, or market moves.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
