Credicorp Ltd. research snapshot
BAP AI stock analysis currently views Credicorp as Peru's leading diversified financial-services group, with banking, insurance, pension, microfinance, and investment-management operations. At the July 11, 2026 data cutoff, BAP closed at $391.92, with 79.45 million shares and a mechanically verified $31.14 billion market capitalization. TTM net income was $2.07 billion, while the latest quarterly disclosure reported a 21.1 percent return on equity. The franchise is producing strong results, but BAP's AI stock forecast remains scenario-based because Peru's political and economic conditions, credit quality, rates, currency translation, regulation, and valuation can change returns. This page is informational research only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$391.92
Market cap
$31.14 billion
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Diversified Peruvian financial-services leader with high reported returns, balanced against political, credit-cycle, currency, and premium valuation risk
Trend status
Positive intermediate trend above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 11, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Credicorp earns interest spread and fees through BCP universal banking, Mibanco microfinance, Pacifico insurance and health services, Prima pensions, and Credicorp Capital investment and advisory businesses. | High |
| Moat | The moat rests on BCP brand trust, banking licenses, deposits, distribution, payments, underwriting data, customer relationships, and a multi-product Peruvian financial-services network. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Gianfranco Ferrari oversees a diversified group with strong recent profitability. The next test is capital allocation and underwriting discipline through a less favorable credit or political cycle. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was about S/20.70 billion and net income attributable to common shareholders was about S/6.93 billion, up 25.9 percent year over year. TTM net income was $2.07 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $391.92, financial_rigor.py calculated 15.09x trailing EPS, 2.72x book value, and a 3.75 percent indicated dividend yield. Bank free cash flow is not used as a primary valuation measure. | High |
| Technical trend | At the cutoff, BAP was above its 50-day average of $348.74 and 200-day average of $313.89. RSI of 62.79 was constructive, but the ADR was near its reported $399.38 52-week high. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because of Peru political uncertainty, asset-quality and funding-cycle exposure, regulation, currency translation, microfinance sensitivity, and a higher starting valuation than a distressed-bank setup. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Reported results and arithmetic have high data confidence. Forward scenarios and technical setups have medium confidence because macro, credit, rates, and sentiment can change quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | BAP is not an automatic buy. The thesis requires durable credit quality, disciplined capital allocation, resilient deposits and margins, a stable operating environment, and a price that compensates for those risks. | Medium |
BAP AI stock forecast
The BAP AI stock forecast uses the July 9, 2026 closing price of $391.92, TTM EPS of $25.98, and a three-year scenario calculation audited with financial_rigor.py. The mechanical values are about $284, $484, and $689 per share. These are sensitivity cases, not promises or analyst targets.
$680 to $700
More likely if EPS compounds near 16 percent for three years, loan growth and fee income remain healthy, credit costs stay controlled, Peru conditions remain supportive, capital returns continue, and investors pay about 17x earnings.
$475 to $490
More likely if EPS grows near 10 percent, deposits and margins remain resilient, asset quality stays within management planning, and the market values BAP near 14x earnings.
$280 to $290
More likely if EPS grows near 3 percent, political or macro conditions weaken, provisions rise, funding costs or margins deteriorate, currency translation turns unfavorable, or the multiple falls toward 10x earnings.
BAP AI technical analysis
BAP AI technical analysis was constructive as of the July 11, 2026 cutoff. StockAnalysis showed a July 9 close of $391.92, a 50-day moving average of $348.74, a 200-day moving average of $313.89, RSI of 62.79, and 20-day average volume of about 423,661 shares. Refresh all levels before trading.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $391.92 | NYSE close on July 9, 2026, used for the stated market-cap and valuation reference. |
| Immediate support | $348 to $350 | This area brackets the 50-day moving average and is the first intermediate-trend test. |
| Deeper support | $313 to $315 | This area brackets the 200-day moving average and would signal a larger change in trend confidence. |
| Near resistance | $399 to $400 | This range brackets the reported 52-week high of $399.38 and needs live volume confirmation before it is treated as a breakout. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $348.74, 200-day $313.89 | Price was above both trend references at the cutoff. |
| Momentum | RSI 62.79 | Momentum was positive without an extreme reading, but should be reassessed with price and volume. |
| Volume | 20-day average 423,661 shares | Use this as a liquidity baseline when judging a break above $400 or below the 50-day average. |
| Volatility | Watch August 13 earnings and Peru macro data | Results, provisions, loan growth, rates, policy headlines, and currency moves can change the setup quickly. |
| Invalidation | Close below $348, then below $313 | A sustained break below the 50-day average weakens the setup. A break near the 200-day average challenges the larger trend. |
BAP AI trading strategy
The BAP AI trading strategy below is a research framework, not personal advice. It combines price behavior with loan and deposit growth, net interest income, provisions, asset quality, capital, dividends, Peru macro data, policy developments, and currency context.
Watch whether BAP holds the $348 to $350 moving-average zone and clears $399 to $400 with volume while results confirm loan growth, controlled provisions, durable margins, and healthy capital.
A failed breakout followed by a close below $348 should reduce trend confidence, particularly if asset quality, funding, margins, or Peru macro conditions worsen.
If BAP retraces toward $313 to $315 without deterioration in credit quality, capital, or the operating environment, compare the updated price with book value, normalized earnings, dividend policy, and currency-adjusted returns.
Do not assume a lower price is value if provisions, political risk, funding costs, or currency translation are also deteriorating.
Track loans, deposits, net interest income, fee income, provisions, nonperforming-loan indicators, capital ratios, liquidity, microfinance trends, insurance and pension contributions, dividends, and material Peruvian regulatory or political developments.
Position sizing should reflect that BAP is a regulated, leveraged emerging-market financial group whose ADR return can differ from its local operating performance.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Credicorp to safeguard deposits, make payments, borrow, obtain insurance and health coverage, save for retirement, access microfinance, and use investment, advisory, treasury, and corporate financial services.
Credicorp benefits from BCP brand and customer trust, banking and insurance licenses, deposit and distribution scale, payment and data infrastructure, underwriting knowledge, multi-product relationships, and switching friction in consumer and corporate accounts.
The thesis can fail if Peruvian political or macro conditions weaken, loan growth produces later credit losses, funding costs rise, margins compress, currency translation hurts the ADR, microfinance stress increases, regulation limits returns, or a premium multiple contracts.
Management must allocate capital across banking, microfinance, insurance, pensions, and investment services while preserving underwriting, liquidity, service quality, and shareholder alignment. The key-person risk is whether the operating culture remains disciplined beyond any one executive.
Peru has long-run demand for formal savings, payments, mortgages, consumer and business credit, insurance, pensions, wealth products, and digital financial services. Financial services remain regulated, capital intensive, and exposed to economic and policy cycles.
The audited three-scenario model produced about $284 in the bear case, $484 in the base case, and $689 in the bull case. At $391.92, the price requires continued earnings delivery and does not remove credit-cycle, political, currency, or multiple-compression risk.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAP price, shares, and market capitalization | $391.92 July 9 close, 79.45 million shares outstanding, and $31.14 billion verified market capitalization. The price times shares calculation differed from the stated market cap by 0.01 percent. | StockAnalysis BAP statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | About S/20.70 billion. Credicorp Form 20-F and StockAnalysis agree within 0.01 percent after rounding. | Credicorp 2025 Form 20-F and StockAnalysis financials | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income to common shareholders | About S/6.93 billion, up 25.9 percent year over year. Credicorp Form 20-F and StockAnalysis agree within 0.01 percent after rounding. | Credicorp 2025 Form 20-F and StockAnalysis financials | July 11, 2026 |
| TTM profitability and capital snapshot | $6.28 billion revenue, $2.07 billion net income, $25.98 EPS, 19.15 percent ROE, $20.59 billion cash and equivalents, $7.65 billion total debt, and $11.64 billion book value. Bank cash and debt are balance-sheet funding items, not ordinary industrial-company net cash. | StockAnalysis BAP statistics | July 11, 2026 |
| Latest reported operating context | Q1 2026 reporting described record net income and 21.1 percent ROE, supported by loan growth, digital activity, and improved asset quality. This is a reported-period observation, not a forecast. | Credicorp Q1 2026 earnings release | July 11, 2026 |
| Valuation and technical snapshot | Exact arithmetic gives 15.09x trailing PE, 2.72x price to book, 18.01 percent EPS-to-book return measure, and a 3.75 percent indicated dividend yield. The technical snapshot showed a 50-day average of $348.74, 200-day average of $313.89, RSI 62.79, and 20-day average volume of 423,661 shares. | StockAnalysis BAP statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 11, 2026 |
| Cash-flow source limitation | TTM aggregation-site operating cash flow and free cash flow were negative. For a bank, cash-flow statement measures are distorted by deposits, loans, and treasury flows, so this page does not use free cash flow as a primary valuation anchor. | StockAnalysis BAP statistics and Credicorp 2025 Form 20-F | July 11, 2026 |
This BAP AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available filings, market data, and assumptions as of the stated cutoff date and may be wrong.
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