Credicorp Ltd. research snapshot
BAP AI stock analysis currently views Credicorp as Peru's leading diversified financial-services group, with banking, insurance, pension, microfinance, and investment-management operations. At the August 2026 data cutoff, BAP closed at $400.58 on July 31, 2026, with 79.45 million shares and a mechanically verified $31.83 billion market capitalization. TTM net income was $2.07 billion, and the latest reported quarter delivered a 21.1 percent return on equity. The stock has re-rated strongly in the past year, so BAP's AI stock forecast remains scenario-based because Peru's political and economic conditions, credit quality, rates, currency translation, regulation, and valuation can change returns. This page is informational research only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$400.58
Market cap
$31.83 billion
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Diversified Peruvian financial-services leader with strong reported returns, balanced against political, credit-cycle, currency, and a re-rated valuation
Trend status
Positive intermediate trend above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with price near the 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Credicorp earns interest spread and fees through BCP universal banking, Mibanco microfinance, Pacifico insurance and health services, Prima pensions, and Credicorp Capital investment and advisory businesses. | High |
| Moat | The moat rests on BCP brand trust, banking licenses, deposits, distribution, payments, underwriting data, customer relationships, and a multi-product Peruvian financial-services network. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Gianfranco Ferrari oversees a diversified group with strong recent profitability. A planned October 2026 succession introduces new microfinance and finance leadership. The next test is capital allocation and underwriting discipline through a less favorable credit or political cycle. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was about S/20.70 billion and net income attributable to common shareholders was about S/6.93 billion, up 25.9 percent year over year. TTM net income was $2.07 billion on $6.28 billion of revenue. | High |
| Valuation | At $400.58, financial_rigor.py calculated 15.42x trailing EPS, 2.78x book value, and a 3.67 percent indicated dividend yield. The multiple sits well above the low single-digit to low-teens range Credicorp traded at in recent years. Bank free cash flow is not used as a primary valuation measure. | High |
| Technical trend | At the cutoff, BAP was above its 50-day average of $371.60 and 200-day average of $324.20. RSI of 59.90 was constructive, but the ADR sat within about 3 percent of its reported $413.25 52-week high. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because of Peru political uncertainty, asset-quality and funding-cycle exposure, regulation, currency translation, microfinance sensitivity, and a higher starting valuation than in prior years. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Reported results and arithmetic have high data confidence. Forward scenarios and technical setups have medium confidence because macro, credit, rates, and sentiment can change quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | BAP is not an automatic buy. The thesis requires durable credit quality, disciplined capital allocation, resilient deposits and margins, a stable operating environment, and a price that compensates for the higher valuation it now carries. | Medium |
BAP AI stock forecast
The BAP AI stock forecast uses the July 31, 2026 closing price of $400.58, TTM EPS of $25.98, and a three-year scenario calculation audited with financial_rigor.py. The mechanical values are about $284, $484, and $689 per share. These are sensitivity cases, not promises or analyst targets.
$680 to $700
More likely if EPS compounds near 16 percent for three years, loan growth and fee income remain healthy, credit costs stay controlled, Peru conditions remain supportive, capital returns continue, and investors pay about 17x earnings.
$475 to $490
More likely if EPS grows near 10 percent, deposits and margins remain resilient, asset quality stays within management planning, and the market values BAP near 14x earnings.
$280 to $290
More likely if EPS grows near 3 percent, political or macro conditions weaken, provisions rise, funding costs or margins deteriorate, currency translation turns unfavorable, or the multiple falls toward 10x earnings.
BAP AI technical analysis
BAP AI technical analysis was constructive as of the August 2026 cutoff. StockAnalysis showed a July 31, 2026 close of $400.58, a 50-day moving average of $371.60, a 200-day moving average of $324.20, RSI of 59.90, and 20-day average volume of about 272,335 shares. Refresh all levels before trading.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $400.58 | NYSE close on July 31, 2026, used for the stated market-cap and valuation reference. |
| Immediate support | $371 to $373 | This area brackets the 50-day moving average and is the first intermediate-trend test. |
| Deeper support | $324 to $326 | This area brackets the 200-day moving average and would signal a larger change in trend confidence. |
| Near resistance | $413 to $416 | This range brackets the reported 52-week high of $413.25 and needs live volume confirmation before it is treated as a breakout. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $371.60, 200-day $324.20 | Price was above both trend references at the cutoff. |
| Momentum | RSI 59.90 | Momentum was positive without an extreme reading, but should be reassessed with price and volume. |
| Volume | 20-day average 272,335 shares | Use this as a liquidity baseline when judging a break above $413 or below the 50-day average. |
| Volatility | Watch August 13 earnings and Peru macro data | Results, provisions, loan growth, rates, policy headlines, and currency moves can change the setup quickly. |
| Invalidation | Close below $371, then below $324 | A sustained break below the 50-day average weakens the setup. A break near the 200-day average challenges the larger trend. |
BAP AI trading strategy
The BAP AI trading strategy below is a research framework, not personal advice. It combines price behavior with loan and deposit growth, net interest income, provisions, asset quality, capital, dividends, Peru macro data, policy developments, and currency context.
Watch whether BAP holds the $371 to $373 moving-average zone and clears $413 to $416 with volume while results confirm loan growth, controlled provisions, durable margins, and healthy capital.
A failed breakout followed by a close below $371 should reduce trend confidence, particularly if asset quality, funding, margins, or Peru macro conditions worsen.
If BAP retraces toward $324 to $326 without deterioration in credit quality, capital, or the operating environment, compare the updated price with book value, normalized earnings, dividend policy, and currency-adjusted returns.
Do not assume a lower price is value if provisions, political risk, funding costs, or currency translation are also deteriorating.
Track loans, deposits, net interest income, fee income, provisions, nonperforming-loan indicators, capital ratios, liquidity, microfinance trends, insurance and pension contributions, dividends, the October 2026 executive succession, and material Peruvian regulatory or political developments.
Position sizing should reflect that BAP is a regulated, leveraged emerging-market financial group whose ADR return can differ from its local operating performance.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Credicorp to safeguard deposits, make payments, borrow, obtain insurance and health coverage, save for retirement, access microfinance, and use investment, advisory, treasury, and corporate financial services.
Credicorp benefits from BCP brand and customer trust, banking and insurance licenses, deposit and distribution scale, payment and data infrastructure, underwriting knowledge, multi-product relationships, and switching friction in consumer and corporate accounts.
The thesis can fail if Peruvian political or macro conditions weaken, loan growth produces later credit losses, funding costs rise, margins compress, currency translation hurts the ADR, microfinance stress increases, regulation limits returns, or a premium multiple contracts.
Management must allocate capital across banking, microfinance, insurance, pensions, and investment services while preserving underwriting, liquidity, service quality, and shareholder alignment. The key-person risk is whether the operating culture remains disciplined beyond any one executive.
Peru has long-run demand for formal savings, payments, mortgages, consumer and business credit, insurance, pensions, wealth products, and digital financial services. Financial services remain regulated, capital intensive, and exposed to economic and policy cycles.
The audited three-scenario model produced about $284 in the bear case, $484 in the base case, and $689 in the bull case. At $400.58, the price embeds continued earnings delivery and a multiple well above recent trading history, so it does not remove credit-cycle, political, currency, or multiple-compression risk.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAP price, shares, and market capitalization | $400.58 July 31 close, 79.45 million shares outstanding, and $31.83 billion verified market capitalization. The price times shares calculation differed from the stated market cap by 0.01 percent. | StockAnalysis BAP statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | About S/20.70 billion, up 13.7 percent year over year. StockAnalysis overview and segment totals agree within 0.6 percent after rounding. | StockAnalysis BAP overview and financials | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income to common shareholders | About S/6.93 billion, up 25.9 percent year over year. StockAnalysis overview and income statement agree within 0.1 percent after rounding. | StockAnalysis BAP overview and financials | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM profitability and capital snapshot | $6.28 billion revenue, $2.07 billion net income, $25.98 EPS, 19.15 percent ROE, $20.59 billion cash and equivalents, $7.65 billion total debt, and $11.64 billion book value. Bank cash and debt are balance-sheet funding items, not ordinary industrial-company net cash. | StockAnalysis BAP statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Latest reported operating context | Q1 2026 reporting described record net income and a 21.1 percent ROE, supported by loan growth, digital activity, and improved asset quality. Management has guided toward continued loan growth with stable margins. 2Q26 results are scheduled for August 13, 2026. This is a reported-period observation, not a forecast. | Credicorp Q1 2026 earnings materials and StockAnalysis news | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation and technical snapshot | Exact arithmetic gives 15.42x trailing PE, 2.78x price to book, 3.15x price to tangible book, a 0.85 PEG ratio, and a 3.67 percent indicated dividend yield with a 56.35 percent payout ratio. The technical snapshot showed a 50-day average of $371.60, 200-day average of $324.20, RSI 59.90, and 20-day average volume of 272,335 shares. | StockAnalysis BAP statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst context | A consensus of 14 analysts rated BAP Buy with a $404.47 average price target, a $290 low, a $413.13 median, and a $480 high. Analyst 3-year EPS growth estimates average about 14.5 percent. Analyst targets are third-party estimates, not guarantees. | StockAnalysis BAP forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash-flow source limitation | TTM aggregation-site operating cash flow and free cash flow were negative. For a bank, cash-flow statement measures are distorted by deposits, loans, and treasury flows, so this page does not use free cash flow as a primary valuation anchor. | StockAnalysis BAP statistics | August 2, 2026 |
This BAP AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available filings, market data, and assumptions as of the stated cutoff date and may be wrong.
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