Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation research snapshot
BAH AI stock analysis currently reads Booz Allen Hamilton as a quality federal technology franchise whose first quarter fiscal 2027 execution improved, with the share price recovering from a sharp drawdown while near-term revenue pressure persists. Booz Allen reported Q1 FY27 revenue of $2.8 billion, down 4.2% year over year, but adjusted diluted EPS rose 22% to $1.81 and beat consensus, adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 11.9%, total backlog exceeded $39 billion, and funded backlog grew 15% to $4.7 billion. The July 31, 2026 closing price was $69.72 and the market capitalization was $8.39 billion, with an AI score of 68 out of 100. This page is for informational use only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$69.72
Market cap
$8.39 billion
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Solid execution in an improving funding cycle, with civil revenue and budget timing still unresolved
Trend status
Bounced off the 52-week low after the Q1 FY27 earnings beat and holding just below the 50-day moving average, still under the 200-day average
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Booz Allen sells mission-critical technology and consulting to the U.S. government. Q1 FY27 execution was strong, but revenue is still falling and the civil portfolio remains a drag. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Security-cleared talent, past performance, contract vehicles, agency knowledge, and product depth in cyber and defense tech create meaningful barriers, though agencies can insource and large technology firms compete for awards. | Medium-high |
| Management | Horacio Rozanski reaffirmed fiscal 2027 guidance after an adjusted EPS beat, is integrating the $720M Ultra Mission Solutions acquisition, and is managing capital through a $700M notes offering and steady shareholder returns. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q1 FY27 revenue declined 4.2% to $2.8 billion, but adjusted EBITDA margin hit 11.9%, free cash flow reached $261 million, and book-to-bill was 1.5x with funded backlog up 15%. | High for reported data |
| Valuation | At $69.72, the exact check gives 10.96x trailing EPS, 7.51x free cash flow per share, and a 3.39% dividend yield. The low multiple still reflects real policy and execution risk. | High for arithmetic, medium for interpretation |
| Technical trend | BAH holds just below its 50-day average of $70.24 and remains below the 200-day average of $80.68. RSI at 54.60 has recovered from oversold to neutral. | Medium |
| Risk level | The main risks are budget timing in a midterm election year, the fixed-price contracting transition, continued civil declines, NDAA capital return language, and cleared-talent hiring constraints. | High |
| AI confidence | Data confidence is high because the company provides detailed filings, backlog, and funding disclosures. Forecast confidence is lower because budgets and contract awards are external variables. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | BAH is a recovery case with better evidence than three months ago, but it is still not high certainty because civil revenue and budget timing can move results in either direction. | Medium |
BAH AI stock forecast
The BAH AI stock forecast is scenario math, not a precise price prediction. Using the July 31, 2026 close of $69.72 and trailing EPS of $6.36, the three-year financial_rigor.py model produced about $135 in a bullish case, $79 in a base case, and $33 in a bearish case. The model assumes 10%, 4%, and negative 10% annual EPS growth with 16x, 11x, and 7x terminal PE multiples. The base case lands close to the analyst median target of $79, while the bull and bear cases reflect a recovery multiple and a continued downturn.
$120 to $140
More likely if national security growth continues, funded backlog keeps converting, cyber and defense tech products scale, civil stabilizes, the fixed-price transition lifts margins, and Congress funds the government without major disruption.
$70 to $85
More likely if revenue returns to low single digit growth, civil declines by less, margins hold near the 11% guide, and investors wait for a cleaner back-half fiscal 2027 ramp before assigning a higher multiple.
$30 to $40
More likely if budget fights or a continuing resolution disrupt awards, civil losses deepen, the fixed-price transition creates execution problems, or the Ultra acquisition fails to deliver its promised growth.
BAH AI technical analysis
BAH AI technical analysis is mixed as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis reported a July 31 close of $69.72, a 50-day moving average of $70.24, a 200-day moving average of $80.68, RSI of 54.60, and 20-day average volume of 2.41 million shares. Price bounced from the 52-week low of $59.50 after the Q1 FY27 earnings beat and now trades just below the 50-day average.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $69.72 | StockAnalysis reported the July 31, 2026 close at $69.72. This is the primary reference price for this page. |
| Near support | $66.80 to $68.00 | The July 31 intraday low was $66.86 and the open was $67.29. Holding above this zone keeps the recovery intact. |
| Key support | $59.50 to $62.00 | The 52-week low is $59.50. A sustained break below this zone would put the mean-reversion setup at risk. |
| Near resistance | $70.24 to $74.60 | The 50-day average is $70.24 and the post-earnings high was near $74.58. This is the first recovery test. |
| 200-day moving average | $80.68 | This longer-term average is the main confirmation level for a broader trend reversal. |
| Momentum | RSI 54.60 | Momentum has recovered from oversold to neutral, which supports consolidation but does not confirm a new uptrend. |
| Volume | 2.28M shares versus 2.41M 20-day average | The July 31 session traded near its 20-day average. A durable move would carry more weight with expanding volume. |
| Volatility | 5-year beta 0.36; 52-week change -35.13% | The low beta has not removed event risk. Budget, award, and earnings news still produce outsized single-day moves. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $59.50 | A sustained close below the 52-week low would invalidate the recovery thesis and require a fresh fundamental review. |
BAH AI trading strategy
The BAH AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. Because BAH reacts to budget, award, and contract news, price confirmation should be paired with funded backlog, bookings, civil revenue, and margin evidence.
Wait for BAH to reclaim and hold the $70.24 50-day average and then the $74.60 area, preferably with volume above its 20-day average and continued national security bookings growth.
Treat a failed reclaim followed by a sustained close below $59.50 as a rules-based invalidation. A single earnings beat is not a durable trend by itself.
If BAH pulls back to the $66.80 to $68.00 zone or toward $62.00, compare the pullback with funded backlog, civil revenue, contract awards, budget developments, and cash flow before treating it as a bargain.
Avoid averaging down when weakness is tied to lost work, delayed appropriations, civil program reductions, or new margin warnings rather than broad market noise.
Track funded and total backlog, book-to-bill, national security versus civil growth, funding levels, adjusted EBITDA margin, free cash flow, net leverage, and the second quarter fiscal 2027 update including the Ultra acquisition close.
Reduce confidence if backlog stops converting to funded work, civil declines accelerate, margins compress below the 11% guide, leverage rises, or integration problems appear after the Ultra close.
Investment research summary
Booz Allen sells specialized technology, consulting, and now productized defense tech and cyber to government agencies and some commercial customers. Customers pay for cleared talent, agency knowledge, mission execution, and the ability to bring AI and cyber capability into sensitive programs.
The moat comes from security clearances, past performance, contract vehicles, long agency relationships, and technical depth, now extended by products like the Vellox cyber suite and defense tech systems. Barriers are real but not permanent, because agencies can insource and large technology firms and startups compete for awards.
The thesis fails if funding does not convert to task orders, civil losses deepen, the fixed-price transition creates execution or margin problems, Congress restricts capital returns, budget fights delay awards, or the Ultra acquisition fails to deliver. A $39 billion backlog is not the same as funded, high-margin revenue.
Horacio Rozanski reaffirmed fiscal 2027 guidance after a first quarter adjusted EPS beat, grew national security 1%, lifted adjusted EBITDA margin to 11.9%, and kept capital deployment disciplined through the Defy deal, a $700M notes offering, and the planned $720M Ultra acquisition. The test is whether the back-half ramp arrives as guided.
Federal modernization, cyber, AI, and defense technology are long-term demand themes, and funding improved 17% year over year in Q1. The industry is also being reshaped by procurement reform that makes fixed-price contracting the default, which carries both margin opportunity and transition risk.
At the July 31 close, the exact check showed 10.96x trailing EPS, 7.51x free cash flow per share, and a 3.39% dividend yield. The discount to history can offer a margin of safety if growth returns as guided, but it may also be pricing in that civil weakness and budget risk keep normalized earnings below the latest fiscal year.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAH closing price and market capitalization | $69.72 close and $8.39B market cap on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis market overview | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding and valuation snapshot | 120.28M shares, 10.96x PE, 7.51x P/FCF, 3.39% dividend yield, and 6.98x book value | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2022 to FY2026 revenue trend | $8.364B, $9.259B, $10.662B, $11.980B, and $11.217B | StockAnalysis financials, sourced from SEC filings | August 3, 2026 |
| First quarter fiscal 2027 results | Revenue $2.8B (-4.2%), adjusted EPS $1.81, adjusted EBITDA $334M at an 11.9% margin, and free cash flow $261M | Booz Allen Q1 FY27 earnings release and call, via StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Backlog and book-to-bill | Total backlog over $39B (+3% YoY), funded backlog $4.7B (+15% YoY), and book-to-bill of 1.5x | Booz Allen Q1 FY27 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 net income and free cash flow | $851M net income and $951M free cash flow for fiscal 2026 | StockAnalysis financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Balance sheet and leverage | $540M cash, $4.16B total debt, and net leverage of about 2.7x trailing adjusted EBITDA at June 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis statistics and Q1 FY27 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day average $70.24, 200-day average $80.68, RSI 54.60, 20-day average volume 2.41M, 52-week range $59.50 to $114.48 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus and targets | Hold rating with an average price target of $85.58, median $79, low $68, and high $140 across 14 analysts; FY27 revenue estimate $11.38B | StockAnalysis forecast, updated July 29, 2026 | August 3, 2026 |
| Scenario valuation calculation | Three-year outputs of $135.40 bull, $78.70 base, and $32.50 bear | Pineify financial_rigor.py using $69.72 price and $6.36 trailing EPS | August 3, 2026 |
This BAH AI stock analysis is an informational tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of returns. Forecasts are conditional scenarios based on available data and assumptions, and they may be wrong. Market prices, filings, government budgets, contracts, and company results can change after the stated data cutoff.
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