Acuity Inc. research snapshot
AYI AI stock analysis currently reads Acuity Inc. as a profitable industrial technology company whose core lighting franchise funds a faster-growing intelligent spaces platform. AYI closed at $333.11 on July 10, 2026, with a market capitalization near $9.91 billion. FY2025 revenue was $4.35 billion and GAAP net income was $396.6 million. The latest twelve-month data through May 31, 2026 shows revenue of about $4.61 billion, net income of $472.3 million, and free cash flow of $639.4 million. The main question is whether AIS growth and the Q-SYS acquisition can compound without allowing lighting demand, tariffs, construction cycles, or acquisition amortization to dilute returns. This AYI AI stock analysis is an information tool, not investment advice.
Current price
$333.11 at the July 10, 2026 close
Market cap
$9.91 billion using about 29.74 million shares; price times shares variance versus reported market cap is 0.03%
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
Profitable industrial technology company with a strong lighting franchise and faster-growing intelligent spaces, balanced by QSC integration, construction cyclicality, and a full valuation
Trend status
Short-term momentum is weak after the June earnings surge, but price remains above the 200-day average; RSI readings range from oversold to neutral by data feed
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Customers pay for reliable lighting, lighting controls, building management, and audio-video systems that improve energy use, building operations, and user experience. ABL remains the cash-generating base while AIS expands the addressable product set. | High |
| Moat | The moat is built from brand breadth, independent sales agencies, distributor and integrator relationships, installed controls, product know-how, and the Q-SYS, Distech, and Atrius platforms. It is a practical industrial moat, not a pure network-effect moat. | Medium-high |
| Management | Neil Ashe has led Acuity as CEO since 2020 and Chairman since 2021, with a strategy centered on electronics, data, controls, and selective acquisitions. The $1.24 billion QSC deal and continued buybacks make integration returns the key capital-allocation test. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 13.1% to $4.35 billion, but GAAP net income fell 6.2% to $396.6 million. TTM revenue, net income, and free cash flow improved to about $4.61 billion, $472.3 million, and $639.4 million through May 31, 2026. | High |
| Valuation | At $333.11, AYI trades near 22.12x TTM earnings, 2.15x sales, 16.34x free cash flow, and 13.81x EV to EBITDA. The price is reasonable only if AIS growth, QSC integration, and cash conversion remain durable. | Medium |
| Technical trend | Price remains above the 200-day moving-average area near $321 to $323 but below the detailed July 8 50-day reading near $356.52. Pivot support is near $328 to $331, while $333 to $336 is the first resistance band. | Medium-low |
| Risk level | Material risks include commercial construction weakness, aggressive pricing, tariffs and input costs, QSC integration, goodwill or intangible impairment, cyber incidents in connected systems, and competition from larger industrial and software companies. | High |
| AI confidence | Data confidence is high for the reported business and financial record. Forecast confidence is medium because the next phase depends on acquired technology, integration discipline, and the timing of a cyclical lighting recovery. | High for data |
| Investment certainty | AYI looks like a quality industrial compounder candidate with execution risk, not a low-uncertainty utility or a deep-value situation. The thesis needs both AIS growth and continued ABL cash generation. | Medium |
AYI AI stock forecast
The AYI AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges rather than a single target price. A three-year model using TTM EPS of $15.06, annual EPS growth of 10%, 6%, and -5%, and terminal P/E multiples of 24x, 20x, and 14x produced audited reference values of $481.10, $358.70, and $180.80. These calculations are valuation scenarios, not promises. The base case assumes AIS keeps growing, QSC integration remains productive, ABL stays broadly stable, and free cash flow remains healthy.
$450 to $500
More likely if AIS sustains double-digit growth with stable or improving margins, Q-SYS and other platforms gain share, ABL returns to steady organic growth, QSC integration beats the acquisition assumptions, and the market supports about 24x earnings.
$340 to $380
More likely if AIS growth moderates but remains positive, ABL is flat to low growth, QSC contributes as planned, free cash flow stays near the current run rate, and normalized EPS compounds near 6% with a 20x terminal multiple.
$160 to $220
More likely if construction and retrofit demand weaken, ABL faces sustained price pressure, AIS growth slows, tariffs and integration costs compress margins, or goodwill and acquired-intangible charges signal that QSC returns are below plan.
AYI AI technical analysis
AYI technical analysis is based on data around the July 12, 2026 cutoff. AYI closed at $333.11 on July 10 after a sharp post-earnings move and subsequent pullback. Price is above the 200-day moving-average area near $320.95 to $322.50, but below the July 8 Investing.com 50-day reading near $356.52. StockAnalysis reported a different 50-day reading near $308.13 and RSI near 52.38, while Investing.com reported RSI near 28.89. Treat the moving-average and RSI inputs as a range because the providers are not refreshing on the same basis.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $333.11 | StockAnalysis reported the July 10, 2026 NYSE close. Market data is not live on this static page. |
| Immediate support | $328.17 to $330.81 | Investing.com July 8 classic pivot supports S3 through S1 sit below the latest close. |
| 200-day support | $320.95 to $322.50 | Investing.com and StockAnalysis place the long-term moving-average area near this band. A sustained close below it weakens the intermediate trend. |
| First resistance | $333.45 to $336.09 | Investing.com July 8 pivot resistance levels form the first test above the July 10 close. |
| 50-day moving average | About $308.13 to $356.52 by provider | StockAnalysis showed about $308.13 while Investing.com showed about $356.52. The gap is a material source limitation, so do not treat either print as exact without a refreshed chart. |
| 200-day moving average | About $320.95 to $322.50 | Both feeds place this longer trend reference below the latest close. |
| Momentum | RSI about 28.89 to 52.38 by provider | Investing.com showed oversold RSI near 28.89 on July 8, while StockAnalysis showed neutral RSI near 52.38. Momentum is therefore not a single-source signal. |
| Volume | About 500,656 shares average over 20 days | StockAnalysis volume statistics provide the average-volume reference. A breakout should be checked against current session volume. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.28; ATR(14) about $4.84 on July 8 | StockAnalysis reported beta 1.28 and Investing.com reported ATR(14) near $4.84. Price can move materially around earnings and macro data. |
| Higher resistance | $356 to $380 | The detailed 50-day reference and StockAnalysis 52-week high near $380.17 create the next supply zone if price reclaims the pivot band. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $320 | This research framework treats a decisive break below the 200-day area as an invalidation of the constructive intermediate trend, subject to confirmation from business data. |
AYI AI trading strategy
The AYI AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects price levels with AIS growth, ABL demand, QSC integration, free cash flow, acquisition amortization, tariffs, construction indicators, and the company balance sheet.
Watch for price to hold the $321 to $331 support area, reclaim $333 to $336, and then challenge the $356 to $380 zone with stronger volume while AIS margins and ABL sales remain stable. A setup is stronger when QSC integration metrics improve without a new balance-sheet strain.
A sustained close below $320, weaker AIS growth, a sharp ABL order slowdown, or evidence of margin pressure should lower trend-following confidence.
If AYI pulls back toward the 200-day area without a deterioration in QSC performance, cash conversion, or end-market demand, compare the price with the $340 to $380 base range and the $160 to $220 bear range before treating weakness as attractive.
Do not treat a lower multiple as sufficient if a construction slowdown, price competition, tariff burden, or acquisition impairment is reducing normalized earnings power.
Track ABL organic sales, AIS sales and operating margin, Q-SYS growth, QSC integration costs, gross margin, operating margin, free cash flow, capital expenditures, net debt, repurchases, dividends, construction activity, and tariff or commodity commentary.
Keep the framework sized for an industrial cycle and an acquisition integration. Data confidence does not remove the risk of multiple contraction or a permanent change in the earnings base.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Acuity to make physical spaces more useful, efficient, and controllable. ABL sells luminaires, electronics, and controls through sales agencies, distributors, retailers, corporate accounts, and OEM channels. AIS adds building management, software, and Q-SYS audio-video-control solutions, with a larger share of growth coming from acquired and connected technology.
Acuity has a broad brand portfolio, a large distribution and independent-agent network, manufacturing scale, installed controls, and application knowledge. AIS adds software, systems integration, and Q-SYS technology. Switching costs are meaningful when controls and building workflows are embedded, but hardware can be price competitive and global manufacturers can bundle products and services.
The thesis fails if ABL becomes a lower-return lighting supplier, construction demand contracts, competitors force price concessions, tariffs and raw materials absorb pricing, or AIS growth depends too heavily on acquisitions. QSC cost and revenue assumptions could disappoint, while goodwill, acquired technology, and customer relationships create impairment risk if returns fall short.
Neil Ashe has led the company since 2020 after senior roles at Walmart, CBS Interactive, and CNET. The record shows a clear move from traditional luminaires toward electronics, data, controls, and intelligent spaces. QSC was purchased for about $1.24 billion, while the company also repurchased about $230 million of stock in the first nine months of FY2026. The test is whether this capital allocation raises durable per-share cash earnings.
The long-term trend favors solid-state lighting, embedded controls, energy efficiency, intelligent buildings, sustainability reporting, and integrated audio-video and building systems. Demand still depends on new construction, renovation, retrofit, building occupancy, credit, interest rates, tariffs, and commodity costs. Acuity does not provide one independently auditable TAM figure, so the page avoids inventing one.
At $333.11, AYI is priced near the audited base scenario and well above the bear case. The 22.12x TTM P/E and 16.34x P/FCF are supportable if AIS growth and QSC returns compound, but they leave less room for an earnings reset than a distressed industrial multiple would. Margin of safety depends on cash conversion and execution, not on the lighting brand alone.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| AYI quote and market cap | $333.11 close on July 10, 2026; reported market cap about $9.91 billion | StockAnalysis AYI overview and statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Market cap verification | $333.11 x 29.74 million shares = about $9.91 billion; financial_rigor.py deviation 0.03% | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding cross-check | StockAnalysis reported 29.74 million shares on July 10, 2026; the SEC FY2025 10-K reported 30.61 million shares on October 23, 2025. The 1.45% difference reflects different dates and share activity. | StockAnalysis statistics and SEC FY2025 Form 10-K | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 financials | Revenue $4.346 billion, gross margin 47.8%, operating profit $563.9 million, net income $396.6 million, diluted EPS $12.53 | SEC FY2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis financials | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM financials through May 31, 2026 | Revenue $4.607 billion, net income $472.3 million, EPS $15.06, free cash flow $639.4 million | StockAnalysis TTM financial statements and SEC TTM bridge | July 12, 2026 |
| Q3 FY2026 results | Net sales $1.198 billion, GAAP operating profit $193.3 million, net income $141.0 million, diluted EPS $4.56, adjusted diluted EPS $5.31 | Acuity Q3 FY2026 earnings release and SEC Exhibit 99.1 | July 12, 2026 |
| Segment revenue mix | FY2025 ABL revenue $3.612 billion, about 83.1% of total; AIS revenue $764.3 million, about 17.6%. QSC contributed $428.6 million to FY2025 AIS sales. | SEC FY2025 Form 10-K segment results | July 12, 2026 |
| Q3 FY2026 segment trend | Nine-month ABL sales $2.618 billion, down 1.2%; nine-month AIS sales $809.0 million, up 58.9%. Q3 AIS sales rose 14.9% while Q3 ABL sales fell 1.9%. | Acuity Q3 FY2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and liquidity | Cash $411.9 million and long-term debt $697.3 million at May 31, 2026; StockAnalysis reports total debt $804.3 million including lease obligations and net debt about $392.4 million. | Acuity Q3 FY2026 release and StockAnalysis balance sheet | July 12, 2026 |
| Free cash flow and capital allocation | FY2025 free cash flow about $533.0 million; nine-month FY2026 free cash flow $461.7 million; nine-month FY2026 repurchases about $230 million. | Acuity Q3 FY2026 release and StockAnalysis cash flow statement | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation snapshot | TTM P/E 22.12x, P/S 2.15x, P/FCF 16.34x, PB 3.66x, EV/EBITDA 13.81x, FCF yield 6.12%, dividend yield 0.24%. | StockAnalysis statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Management and QSC acquisition | Neil Ashe has been CEO since 2020 and Chairman since 2021. Acuity acquired QSC for cash consideration of about $1.2407 billion on January 1, 2025. | Acuity leadership biography and SEC FY2025 Form 10-K | July 12, 2026 |
| Industry and risk context | Addressable markets include luminaires, lighting and HVAC controls, audio-video systems, and building technology. Demand is affected by construction, retrofit, interest rates, tariffs, energy costs, commodities, and competition. | SEC FY2025 Form 10-K business and risk factors | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | StockAnalysis: 50-day average about $308.13, 200-day average about $322.50, RSI 52.38, beta 1.28. Investing.com on July 8: 50-day average $356.52, 200-day average $320.95, RSI 28.89, ATR(14) $4.84. | StockAnalysis statistics and Investing.com AYI technical page | July 12, 2026 |
This AYI AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios use public data and explicit assumptions as of July 12, 2026, and can be wrong if Acuity execution, lighting demand, intelligent-spaces growth, QSC integration, tariffs, competition, regulation, cash flow, or market valuation changes.
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