American States Water Company research snapshot
AWR AI stock analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff reads American States Water Company as a high-quality California regulated water and electric utility with a contracted military services segment, trading at a price above the analyst consensus target. The stock traded at $84.97 on August 3, 2026 at 3:19 PM EDT, down 0.67 or 0.78% from the $85.64 close on July 31, within a session range reported near $84.56 to $86.97 after opening at $85.43, carrying a market capitalization near $3.33 billion that matches the $84.97 price times 39.19 million common shares. First quarter 2026 earnings per share rose 8.6% year over year to $0.76, revenue increased by $21.2 million to $169.19 million, all three segments grew, and management projected company-funded capital spending of $185 million to $225 million for 2026. The board raised the quarterly dividend 8.2% to $0.5455 on July 28, 2026, keeping the stock on a 72-year dividend growth record at a 2.57% yield. Q2 2026 earnings are scheduled for August 5, 2026 after market close, after this data cutoff. The stock is below its 5-day and 20-day moving averages near $86.58 and $86.08 but above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages near $81.64 and $76.33, with 14-day RSI near 52.43. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$84.97 at the August 3, 2026, 3:19 PM EDT reading, down 0.67 or 0.78% from the $85.64 July 31 close, within a session range reported near $84.56 to $86.97 after opening at $85.43, with the daily price history table showing an August 3 reference price of $85.37 down 0.32%
Market cap
About $3.33 billion reported by StockAnalysis.com at the August 3, 2026 reading, matching the $84.97 price times 39.19 million shares outstanding, with Macrotrends reporting $3.36 billion at the July 31 close
AI score
63 / 100
Rating
Quality regulated water utility priced above analyst targets
Trend status
Medium-term uptrend above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with short-term consolidation below the July 20, 2026 peak of $90.11
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | American States Water operates regulated water utility Golden State Water Company, regulated electric utility Bear Valley Electric Service, and military contracted services through American States Utility Services across 13 bases in nine states. Q1 2026 EPS rose 8.6% to $0.76 with all three segments growing, and consolidated 2025 return on equity was 13.3%. | High |
| Moat | Regulated water and electric service territories act as a natural monopoly with CPUC-authorized returns, GSWC holds S&P A+ stable credit, and ASUS long-term military contracts add recurring revenue, but the service area is concentrated in California and the military segment depends on a small number of large contracts. | Medium-high |
| Management | Robert Sprowls leads a long-tenured team with a record of rate case execution, an 8.5% five-year dividend CAGR, S&P ratings of A for AWR and A+ for GSWC, and recognition as number one in energy and utilities on Newsweek Most Trustworthy Companies. The company also uses an at-the-market equity program, which dilutes shareholders as it funds rate base growth. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue was $679.25 million up 11.68%, TTM net income was $133.09 million with $3.43 TTM EPS, Q1 2026 revenue rose $21.2 million or about 14% year over year, Q1 operating cash flow reached $71.6 million versus $45.1 million a year earlier, and the 2026 water rate base rose to an adopted $1,673.2 million, a five-year CAGR of 11.3%. | High |
| Valuation | At $84.97 the stock trades at 24.79x trailing earnings, about 22.93x forward earnings, 4.91x sales, 3.16x book value, and 87.80x trailing free cash flow, with a PEG of 4.08. The consensus target of $76.50 is about 10% below the price, signaling limited margin of safety. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The stock traded at $84.97 on August 3, 2026 at 3:19 PM EDT, below its 5-day moving average near $86.58 and 20-day moving average near $86.08, above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages near $81.64 and $76.33, with 14-day RSI near 52.43 after a pullback from the $90.11 intraday high of July 20, 2026. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are California Public Utilities Commission rate decisions including a 2028 cost of capital reset, the M-WRAM mechanism that adds revenue volatility from water consumption and supply mix, drought and wildfire costs, interest rate sensitivity given debt of $930.56 million, the concentration of 2026 water revenue growth in advice letter projects, and reliance on a small military contract base. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and cross-checked math that matched across StockAnalysis.com, Macrotrends, SEC EDGAR XBRL, the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q, the Q1 2026 earnings call, and the AGM 2026 transcript. Lower for forward return estimates because California rate case outcomes and the 2028 cost of capital reset are uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The page gives a research framework and scenario ranges, not a buy or sell instruction. | Medium |
AWR AI stock forecast
The AWR AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $84.97 August 3, 2026 reading and the FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS of $3.68. The three-scenario framework produced a bearish area near $62 to $75, a base area near $90 to $108, and a bullish area near $115 to $135 over three years, using adjusted EPS growth of 2%, 7%, and 10% and exit multiples of 16x, 22x, and 26x. The analyst consensus 1-year target is $76.50, about 10% below the current price. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
$115 to $135
More likely if Golden State Water and Bear Valley Electric win favorable general rate cases, the 2026 water rate case filing keeps the rate base compounding near 11% annually, ASUS wins new military base contracts given the DoD infrastructure budget increase, and the dividend keeps growing faster than 7% per year.
$90 to $108
More likely if American States Water compounds adjusted EPS at a mid single-digit to high single-digit rate, water and electric rate bases grow as management guides, the 2028 cost of capital reset keeps authorized returns near current levels, and investors hold the stock near a 22x to 24x earnings multiple.
$62 to $75
More likely if California regulators tighten water rates or cut the authorized return on equity in the 2028 cost of capital reset, the M-WRAM mechanism produces repeated supply cost volatility, drought or wildfire costs exceed what rates recover, interest rates rise and pressure utility multiples, or the stock mean-reverts toward the analyst consensus target of $76.50.
AWR AI technical analysis
AWR AI technical analysis is mixed as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff. The stock traded at $84.97 at 3:19 PM EDT on August 3, down 0.67 or 0.78% from the $85.64 July 31 close, within a session range reported near $84.56 to $86.97 after opening at $85.43. The stock rallied from the low $80s in mid-June to a $90.11 intraday high on July 20, 2026, and has since consolidated in the $85 to $88 area, leaving the price below its 5-day moving average near $86.58 and 20-day moving average near $86.08 while staying above the 50-day moving average near $81.64 and 200-day moving average near $76.33, with 14-day RSI near 52.43. The 5-day and 20-day moving averages were computed from the StockAnalysis.com daily closing price history, and the 50-day and 200-day values come from the StockAnalysis.com statistics page.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $84.97 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the August 3, 2026, 3:19 PM EDT reading, down 0.67 or 0.78% from the $85.64 July 31 close within a session range reported near $84.56 to $86.97 after opening at $85.43; the daily history table shows an August 3 reference price of $85.37 down 0.32%, and the implied market cap near $3.33 billion matches the price times 39.19 million shares outstanding. |
| 5-day moving average | $86.58 | Computed as the simple average of the five closing prices through August 3, 2026 in the StockAnalysis.com daily price history, above the current price, which signals short-term momentum is still digesting the post-rally pullback. |
| 20-day moving average | $86.08 | Computed as the simple average of the twenty closing prices through August 3, 2026 in the StockAnalysis.com daily price history, just above the current price and a short-term pivot for the consolidation range. |
| Near support | $81 to $82 | StockAnalysis.com statistics reported the 50-day moving average near $81.64 on August 3, 2026, a natural first pullback support zone above the prior June consolidation. |
| Next support | $76 to $77 | StockAnalysis.com statistics reported the 200-day moving average near $76.33 on August 3, 2026, forming the longer-term support reference below price. |
| Near resistance | $86 to $90 | The immediate upside is capped by the $86 to $88 consolidation high after the re-open and by the 52-week high of $90.11 set intraday on July 20, 2026. |
| 50-day moving average | $81.64 | StockAnalysis.com statistics reported the 50-day moving average near $81.64 on August 3, 2026, below the current price and confirming the medium-term uptrend. |
| 200-day moving average | $76.33 | StockAnalysis.com statistics reported the 200-day moving average near $76.33 on August 3, 2026, below the current price and confirming the longer-term uptrend. |
| Momentum | RSI near 52.4 | The 14-day RSI was near 52.43 on StockAnalysis.com statistics on August 3, 2026, neutral after the pullback from the July 20 high. |
| Volume | About 300,000 average shares | StockAnalysis.com statistics listed 20-day average volume near 299,606 shares on August 3, 2026; the daily history shows the June 26 jump to about 1.23 million shares on a 2.34% gain, with the August 3 reading showing about 132,598 shares traded by mid-session. |
| Volatility | Low to moderate | The 14-day realized volatility computed from the StockAnalysis.com daily closing price history was near 25.6% annualized as of August 3, 2026, with beta near 0.58 on StockAnalysis.com statistics, so the stock still moves less than the market on most days. |
| Invalidation | Close below $81 | A decisive close below the 50-day moving average near $81.64 would weaken the medium-term uptrend; a close below the 200-day moving average near $76.33 would turn the technical picture bearish. |
AWR AI trading strategy
The AWR AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for trading and watching a regulated utility. It is not personal advice and should be paired with fresh chart data, California regulatory filings, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch for AWR to reclaim and hold its 5-day moving average near $86.58 and 20-day moving average near $86.08, with the 50-day moving average near $81.64 and 200-day moving average near $76.33 still rising, before treating a move toward the $90.11 high as continuation.
A daily close below the 50-day moving average near $81.64 or a failed attempt at the $86 to $88 consolidation high should trigger a stop and review.
AWR now pays a quarterly dividend of $0.5455, raised 8.2% on July 28, 2026, for an annual rate near $2.18 and a 2.57% yield at the $84.97 reference price, with a payout ratio near 63.66% and 72 years of dividend growth supporting an income-oriented hold strategy.
Monitor the payout ratio, California rate case outcomes, and the 2028 cost of capital reset because a cut in the authorized return on equity could pressure dividend growth that has historically run above 7% per year.
If AWR pulls back toward the $76 to $82 support zone from the 50-day and 200-day moving averages without a negative California regulatory event, treat it as a normal utility sector retracement given the low beta near 0.58.
Define maximum position size before entry. If the stock breaks below the 200-day moving average near $76.33 on rising rates or adverse regulatory news, exit and reassess.
Investment research summary
American States Water is paid to deliver regulated water and electricity to California customers and contracted water and wastewater services to U.S. military installations. The regulated segments earn a CPUC-authorized return on rate base, and the military segment earns under long-term fixed-price contracts with annual economic price adjustments.
Regulated water and electric service territories operate as natural monopolies, GSWC carries an S&P A+ stable rating and a 10.06% authorized return on equity, and ASUS holds long-term contracts across 13 military bases. The moat is durable but geographically concentrated in California.
The thesis fails if California regulators tighten rates or cut the authorized return on equity in the 2028 cost of capital reset, if the M-WRAM mechanism repeatedly misses on supply cost recovery, if drought or wildfire raises costs faster than rates recover them, if interest rates rise and make a 2.57% yield less competitive, or if military base contracts face federal budget pressure.
Robert Sprowls and the executive team have delivered rate case execution, an 8.5% five-year dividend CAGR, a 13.3% consolidated return on equity for 2025, and top credit ratings. The main caveat is equity dilution from the at-the-market program that funded rate base growth, which offsets part of the book value gain.
U.S. water infrastructure investment supports a multi-year rate base buildout, and GSWC 2026 adopted average water rate base of $1,673.2 million represents an 11.3% five-year CAGR. Military utility privatization is a growth avenue after the DoD budget request for 2027 rose 50% with a portion aimed at infrastructure, but California affordability pressure and consumption volatility are real constraints.
At about $3.33 billion market value and 24.79x trailing earnings, AWR trades above the 22.93x forward multiple and about 10% above the analyst consensus target of $76.50. The 2.57% dividend yield and regulated earnings give some support, but the margin of safety is limited at the current price.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| AWR price | $84.97 at the August 3, 2026, 3:19 PM EDT reading, down 0.67 or 0.78% from the $85.64 July 31 close, within a session range reported near $84.56 to $86.97 after opening at $85.43, with the daily history table showing an August 3 reference price of $85.37 down 0.32% | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote and daily price history | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | About $3.33 billion, reported by StockAnalysis.com at the August 3 reading and matching the $84.97 price times 39.19 million shares outstanding, with Macrotrends reporting $3.36 billion at the July 31 close | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics, Macrotrends market cap | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week range and performance | 52-week range $69.45 to $90.11, up 14.22% over the trailing 52 weeks, beta 0.58, with the $90.11 intraday high set on July 20, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 EPS | $0.76 basic and fully diluted, up from $0.70 a year earlier, an 8.6% increase, with net income of $29,948 thousand versus $26,844 thousand | AWR Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and Q1 2026 earnings release | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | Consolidated operating revenues of $169,191 thousand versus $148,013 thousand, up about $21.2 million, with Water at $113,110 thousand, Electric at $18,657 thousand, and Contracted Services at $37,424 thousand | AWR Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 segment EPS | Water segment $0.55 per share versus $0.52, Electric segment $0.08 versus $0.07, and ASUS contracted services $0.15 versus $0.13 | AWR Q1 2026 earnings call transcript | May 7, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 cash flow and capex | Operating cash flow of $71.6 million versus $45.1 million, company-funded capital projects of $42.1 million in the quarter, and full-year 2026 company-funded capital expenditure guidance of $185 million to $225 million | AWR Q1 2026 earnings call transcript | May 7, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and earnings | Revenue of $658.07 million up 10.51% from $595.46 million, net income of $130.44 million, EPS of $3.37 up 6.31%, and a 13.3% consolidated return on equity, with adjusted EPS up 10.9% per the AGM | StockAnalysis.com financials and AGM 2026 transcript | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and income | TTM revenue of $679.25 million up 11.68%, TTM net income of $133.09 million on the statistics page and $133.55 million on the financials page, and TTM EPS of $3.43 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financials | August 4, 2026 |
| Balance sheet as of March 31, 2026 | Cash and cash equivalents of $22,155 thousand, long-term debt of $782,739 thousand, current portion of long-term debt of $8,214 thousand, total common shareholders equity of $1,063,845 thousand, total capitalization of $1,846,584 thousand, and total assets of $2,334,310 thousand per the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q, matching SEC EDGAR XBRL | AWR Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and SEC EDGAR XBRL company-concept JSON | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 39,192,653 common shares per the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q cover, 39.19 million per StockAnalysis.com with shares up 2.62% year over year from at-the-market issuances | AWR Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 24.79x trailing PE, 22.93x forward PE, 4.91x sales, 3.16x book value, 87.80x free cash flow, 13.02x operating cash flow, 4.08 PEG, EV/EBITDA of 16.38, and EV/Sales of 6.25 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Forward PE cross-check | About 23.09x using the $84.97 price and the FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS of $3.68 from the forecast page, versus 22.93x on the statistics page which implies a forward earnings basis near $3.71 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Cash flow statement | TTM operating cash flow of $256.31 million, capital expenditures of $218.31 million, and free cash flow of $38.00 million; FY2025 operating cash flow of $229.73 million, capital expenditures of $236.82 million, and free cash flow of negative $7.09 million | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement | August 4, 2026 |
| Profitability | Gross margin of 57.05%, operating margin of 31.35%, profit margin of 19.66%, EBITDA margin of 38.15%, return on equity of 13.22%, and return on invested capital of 6.83% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Dividend | Quarterly dividend of $0.5455, raised 8.2% from $0.5040 on July 28, 2026, annual rate near $2.18 with a 2.57% yield, ex-dividend date August 17, 2026 and payment date September 2, 2026, payout ratio near 63.66%, and 72 years of dividend growth | AWR July 28, 2026 dividend release and StockAnalysis.com dividend history | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold with an average target of $76.50 across 3 analysts, low $76 and high $77, about 9.97% below the current price, with price targets last updated on June 29, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, June 2026 | 2 Hold and 1 Sell out of 3 analysts, down from 1 Strong Buy in November 2025 | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | August 4, 2026 |
| Recent analyst initiations | Freedom Capital Markets analyst Matvey Tayts initiated with a Hold and a $77 target on June 29, 2026, and Huntington initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and a $91 price target in early July 2026 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and news feed | August 4, 2026 |
| Financial forecast | FY2026 revenue estimate of $706.22 million up 7.32% with adjusted EPS of $3.68 up 9.10% and net income of $142.19 million, FY2027 revenue estimate of $735.33 million up 4.12% with adjusted EPS of $3.79, and a three-year EPS growth forecast near 6.27% | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| Next earnings date | Q2 2026 earnings scheduled for Wednesday, August 5, 2026 after market close, after the August 4, 2026 data cutoff | StockAnalysis.com statistics and AWR July 21, 2026 release | August 4, 2026 |
| Short interest | 1.05 million shares short, 2.67% of shares outstanding, 2.70% of float, and 2.80 days to cover, up from 908,324 shares the prior month | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 4, 2026 |
| GSWC authorized returns | Authorized rate of return on rate base of 7.93%, including a 10.06% return on equity and a capital structure of 57% equity and 43% debt, in effect through December 31, 2027 after the cost of capital application was deferred to a May 1, 2027 filing | AWR Q1 2026 earnings call transcript | May 7, 2026 |
| Water rate base growth | Golden State Water 2026 adopted average water rate base of $1,673.2 million, up from $980.4 million in 2021, a compound annual growth rate of 11.3%, with $80 million of completed advice letter projects added to the 2026 rate base | AWR Q1 2026 earnings call transcript | May 7, 2026 |
| Electric general rate case | Bear Valley Electric filed an electric general rate case in January 2026 for 2027 through 2030 rates, requesting capital budgets of about $133 million for the four-year cycle plus about $17 million in advice letter projects, a return on equity of 11.3%, an embedded cost of debt of 5.92%, and a 60% equity and 40% debt capital structure | AWR Q1 2026 earnings call transcript | May 7, 2026 |
| ASUS contracted services outlook | ASUS projected to contribute $0.63 to $0.67 of earnings per share in 2026, serving 13 military bases in nine states, with the DoD 2027 presidential budget request up about 50% and a portion aimed at military infrastructure | AWR Q1 2026 earnings call and AGM 2026 transcript | May 19, 2026 |
| ATM equity program | The $200 million at-the-market equity offering program was completed on June 19, 2026 with no further shares to be sold under it; Q1 2026 raised $6.2 million net with $34.3 million remaining at that time | AWR June 19, 2026 release and Q1 2026 earnings call | June 19, 2026 |
| GSWC new water system settlement | On July 13, 2026, Golden State Water Company and the Public Advocates Office at the California Public Utilities Commission reached a settlement agreement related to acquiring a new water system, announced July 16, 2026, expanding GSWC service in California | AWR July 16, 2026 release via StockAnalysis.com news feed | July 16, 2026 |
| Credit ratings | Standard and Poor’s ratings of A stable for American States Water Company and A+ stable for Golden State Water Company, among the highest in the water utility industry | AWR AGM 2026 transcript | May 19, 2026 |
| Peer market caps | American Water Works $26.66 billion at a 23.13x PE, Essential Utilities $11.30 billion at 19.83x, California Water Service $3.00 billion at 22.57x, and American States Water $3.36 billion at the July 31, 2026 close | Macrotrends peer comparison | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day moving average near $86.58 and 20-day moving average near $86.08 computed from StockAnalysis.com daily price history, 50-day moving average near $81.64 and 200-day moving average near $76.33 on StockAnalysis.com statistics, 14-day RSI near 52.43, 14-day realized volatility near 25.6% annualized computed from daily closes, 20-day average volume near 299,606 shares, and 2.67% of shares short | StockAnalysis.com statistics and daily price history | August 4, 2026 |
This AWR AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold American States Water Company shares. Forecast scenarios are based on available filings, quote snapshots, and third-party data as of the stated cutoff date of August 4, 2026, and they can be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, California regulatory decisions, climate events, or market moves. Data sources include StockAnalysis.com, Macrotrends, SEC EDGAR XBRL, the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q, the Q1 2026 earnings call, and the AGM 2026 transcript.
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