Avista Corporation research snapshot
AVA AI stock analysis currently reads Avista Corporation as a durable small-cap regulated utility with low-beta defensive characteristics, hydroelectric generation assets, and a visible capital plan for the Pacific Northwest service territory. At the July 10, 2026 data cutoff, AVA closed at $41.90, carried a verified market capitalization near $3.46 billion, and traded above its March 2026 low near $36. The main debate is whether the 2026 guidance of $2.52 to $2.72 utility EPS, long-term 4%-6% EPS growth, and a 4.7% dividend yield can offset balance-sheet leverage, negative free cash flow from the capital plan, customer affordability pressure, and the risks of small-utility execution on data-center load and hydro variability. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$41.90
Market cap
$3.46 billion verified market cap
AI score
65 / 100
Rating
Small regulated utility with hydro-heavy generation, Pacific Northwest load growth, and manageable value
Trend status
Slightly above the 52-week midpoint, trending up from the March 2026 low near $36, but volume is below average
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 10, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Avista provides essential electric and natural gas service across eastern Washington, northern Idaho, parts of Oregon, and Juneau, Alaska. Demand is driven by population growth, economic development, and reliability needs in the Inland Northwest. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from regulated service territories, hydroelectric and thermal generation assets, transmission and distribution infrastructure, and long-standing regulatory relationships. Returns are set by regulators, limiting open-ended pricing power. | High |
| Management | CEO Heather Rosentrater (since 2022) leads an experienced utility management team focused on operational discipline, the Colstrip exit, general rate cases, and managing the growing capital plan. Key tests include data-center load integration, cost control, and rate case outcomes. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q1 2026 GAAP net income was $92M ($1.11/sh), up from $79M ($0.98/sh) in Q1 2025. TTM revenue is near $1.92B, TTM net income near $206M. The balance sheet shows $18M cash, ~$2.77B book equity, and ~$3.3B total debt, with negative free cash flow from the capital plan. | High |
| Valuation | At $41.90, AVA screened near 16.69x TTM EPS, 1.25x book value, a 4.69% dividend yield, and negative FCF yield because capital spending exceeds operating cash flow. The audited three-year scenario model produced bear, base, and bull mechanical anchors near $37, $49, and $63, using the 2026 guidance midpoint EPS of $2.62. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | AVA has recovered from the March 2026 low near $36 toward the $42 area, but volume has been below the 715,000 share average. The 52-week range is $35.50 to $43.50, so the stock is near the upper end of its recent range. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium. Regulated utility earnings are defensive, but Avista has elevated debt (119% debt/equity), negative free cash flow (-$172M TTM), hydroelectric generation dependency (precipitation and streamflow risk), small-cap liquidity, and concentrated service territory exposure. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because SEC filings and Yahoo Finance data are available and consistent. Return confidence is medium because rates, hydro conditions, data-center demand conversion, interest rates, and financing assumptions drive the stock outcome. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | AVA looks like a modest utility growth-and-income holding at the current price, not a deep value. Certainty improves if rate case outcomes, hydro conditions, data-center load, and EPS growth remain aligned with guidance. | Medium |
AVA AI stock forecast
The AVA AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges because Avista Corporation combines stable regulated demand with capital intensity, hydro variability, and rate-sensitive valuation. Using the $41.90 price reference, the 2026 utility EPS guidance midpoint near $2.62, and the audited three-year model, mechanical anchors are about $37 in a bear case, $49 in a base case, and $63 in a bullish case before dividends. These ranges are not promises.
$57 to $65 before dividends
More likely if EPS grows near 10%, regulators approve full cost recovery for capital investments, data-center load converts into contracted demand, hydro conditions are normal, interest rates ease, and the market values AVA near an 18x forward earnings multiple.
$45 to $52 before dividends
More likely if 2026 utility EPS guidance of $2.52 to $2.72 remains intact, EPS compounds near the 4% to 6% long-term target, dividend growth tracks EPS, and the market values AVA near 16x forward earnings.
$33 to $40 before dividends
More likely if interest rates rise, regulators limit cost recovery, hydro conditions are unfavorable, data-center commitments slow, customer affordability pressure increases, or utility multiples contract.
AVA AI technical analysis
AVA AI technical analysis is cautiously constructive as of the July 10, 2026 data cutoff. Yahoo Finance showed a July 10, 2026 close of $41.90, a 52-week range of $35.50 to $43.50, beta of 0.24, and 20-day average volume near 715,856 shares. The stock has recovered from the March 2026 low near $36 but is approaching the upper end of its 52-week range near $43.50, where resistance may form.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $41.90 | Yahoo Finance listed the July 10, 2026 close at $41.90. |
| Immediate support | $40 to $41 | This area represents the recent consolidation zone and is the first test level on any pullback. |
| Major support | $37 to $38 | This zone held during the March 2026 selloff and represents a key longer-trend reference. |
| Deeper support | $35 to $36 | The bottom of the 52-week range near $35.50 sits in this zone. A break below would test the broader trend framework. |
| Near resistance | $42.50 to $43.50 | The 52-week high near $43.50 provides the most immediate resistance. AVA has tested this zone multiple times. |
| Moving averages | 50-day data not displayed on Yahoo Finance summary | AVA is above its March 2026 low but moving-average data should be checked on a live chart for current levels. |
| Momentum | Positive from March 2026 low, approaching resistance | Momentum has been positive since the March low near $36, but the stock needs to break above $43.50 to establish a new uptrend leg. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 715,856 shares | Volume is important around earnings (next estimated Aug 3, 2026), rate case decisions, and large-load announcements. |
| Volatility | Beta near 0.24 | AVA has very low market beta, but the stock can still move on rate case outcomes, hydro conditions, and utility sector sentiment. |
| Invalidation | Close below $37, then below $35 | A sustained close below $37 would weaken the constructive recovery setup. A break below $35 would challenge the broader trend. |
AVA AI trading strategy
The AVA AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It combines chart levels with 2026 EPS guidance, rate case outcomes, hydro conditions, balance-sheet leverage, dividend yield, capital expenditures, data-center load, and customer affordability trends.
Watch for AVA to hold above $40 to $41 and then break above $43.50 on volume above the 715,000 average. Confirmation is stronger if Q2 2026 earnings (estimated Aug 3) keep 2026 guidance intact, rate case updates are favorable, and no adverse regulatory or hydro news appears.
A failed breakout followed by a close below $40 should reduce trend confidence, especially if EPS guidance or rate case outcomes disappoint.
AVA offers a 4.69% forward dividend yield with a $1.97 annual dividend. If the stock pulls back toward $38 to $40, the yield would rise toward 5% and may attract income-oriented buyers. The next ex-dividend date should be confirmed from the company calendar.
Dividend capture carries ex-date price risk. The dividend is well covered by EPS (payout ratio near 75% of utility EPS guidance midpoint), but track the payout ratio against the 2026 guidance.
Track 2026 utility EPS guidance of $2.52 to $2.72, the 2026 capital expenditure plan of $615M at Avista Utilities, the 2026 to 2030 base capital program, rate case filings in Washington, Idaho, and Oregon, hydro conditions and reservoir levels, Colstrip exit execution, and debt financing plans.
Reduce confidence if EPS growth depends mainly on leverage or equity issuance rather than authorized utility returns and real load growth, or if dividend coverage becomes stretched.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Avista because homes, businesses, and communities in the Inland Northwest and parts of Alaska need reliable electricity and natural gas service. The business converts regulated infrastructure investment and hydroelectric generation into earnings through approved rate structures.
AVA has regulated service territories, generation and grid assets, customer density in its Pacific Northwest markets, local operating experience, and regulatory relationships. The moat is durable, but returns are determined through regulatory proceedings rather than open-market pricing.
The thesis fails if rates stay high, regulators reject or delay cost recovery, hydro conditions are unfavorable (low streamflows reduce generation), customer bill pressure grows, the capital plan requires excessive debt or equity, data-center demand does not materialize, or the Colstrip exit creates unforeseen costs.
CEO Heather Rosentrater leads a compact utility management team. Key decisions include executing on the 2026-2030 capital plan, managing the Colstrip exit, pursuing general rate cases, and evaluating data-center load opportunities. The team is experienced but the small size of the utility means key-person risk exists.
Avista sits inside grid modernization, electrification, Pacific Northwest population growth, reshoring interest, data-center power demand, and clean energy transition trends. These are favorable for utility demand growth, but Avista must receive regulatory approval for cost recovery and manage customer affordability in its relatively modest service territory economy.
At about 16.7x TTM EPS and 1.25x book value, AVA is priced below the large-cap regulated utility average. The 4.69% dividend yield is competitive for income investors. Margin of safety improves if price retreats toward $37 to $38 while 2026 guidance and rate case outcomes remain intact.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $41.90 close on July 10, 2026 | Yahoo Finance AVA summary | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $3.463 billion, verified against price times shares | Yahoo Finance AVA summary | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | ~82.7 million shares (implied from market cap / price) | Yahoo Finance AVA key statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $1.92 billion | Yahoo Finance AVA key statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $206 million | Yahoo Finance AVA key statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM EPS | $2.51 | Yahoo Finance AVA summary | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and total debt | $18 million cash, ~$3.3 billion total debt (119% D/E) | Yahoo Finance AVA key statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 GAAP net income | $92 million or $1.11 per diluted share | Avista Corp Q1 2026 earnings release (GlobeNewswire) | July 12, 2026 |
| 2026 utility EPS guidance | $2.52 to $2.72 per diluted share | Avista Corp Q1 2026 earnings release (GlobeNewswire) | July 12, 2026 |
| Forward dividend and yield | $1.97 (4.69% forward yield) | Yahoo Finance AVA summary | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical statistics | 52-week range $35.50 to $43.50, beta 0.24, avg volume 715,856 | Yahoo Finance AVA summary | July 12, 2026 |
This AVA AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 10, 2026 and may be wrong if earnings, regulation, interest rates, hydro conditions, customer demand, capital market conditions, or company disclosures change.
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