Avista Corporation research snapshot
AVA AI stock analysis currently reads Avista Corporation as a durable small-cap regulated utility whose shares are absorbing a near-term shock: Q2 2026 results reported on August 3, 2026 showed flat utility earnings, Spokane wildfires damaged transmission and distribution assets, and the Washington rate case looks difficult. At the August 4, 2026 data cutoff, AVA traded near $39.15 intraday, down from a $40.45 previous close, with a market capitalization near $3.24 billion. Management confirmed 2026 non-GAAP utility EPS guidance of $2.52 to $2.72, the long-term 4%-6% utility EPS growth target, and a dividend yielding about 4.9%. The main debate is whether flat utility earnings, wildfire cost recovery, a tougher-than-expected Washington rate case, and the pause of a 500 MW data-center agreement are temporary or a sign of slower growth. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$39.15 intraday on August 4, 2026
Market cap
$3.24 billion verified market cap
AI score
58 / 100
Rating
Small regulated utility navigating Spokane wildfire recovery, a difficult Washington rate case, and paused data-center load, with confirmed 2026 guidance and a 4.9% dividend yield
Trend status
Trading near $39 after a 3% post-earnings pullback, below the July high near $42 and the 52-week high of $43.50, still above the March 2026 low near $36
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Avista provides essential electric and natural gas service across eastern Washington, northern Idaho, parts of Oregon, and Juneau, Alaska. Demand is tied to population growth, reliability needs, and economic development in the Inland Northwest. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from regulated service territories, hydroelectric and thermal generation assets, transmission and distribution infrastructure, and long-standing regulatory relationships. Returns are set by regulators, limiting open-ended pricing power. | High |
| Management | CEO Heather Rosentrater and CFO Kevin Christie are managing wildfire recovery, a difficult Washington rate case, the paused data-center agreement, and the 2026-2030 capital plan. Key tests include wildfire cost recovery, the mid-December rate order, cost control, and affordability. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 GAAP net income was $35M ($0.43/sh), up from $14M in Q2 2025, and H1 2026 GAAP net income was $127M ($1.54/sh) versus $93M ($1.15/sh), but non-GAAP utility earnings were flat at $0.29/sh in Q2 and $1.38/sh for H1. TTM revenue is near $1.92B, TTM net income near $206M, with $18M cash, about 119% debt/equity, and negative free cash flow. | High |
| Valuation | At $39.15, AVA trades near 15x the 2026 guidance midpoint EPS of $2.62, a 4.86% dividend yield, about 1.20x book value, and negative FCF yield. The analyst average price target is near $41.83. The mechanical three-scenario model produces bear, base, and bull anchors near $35, $41, and $50 using the guidance midpoint. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | AVA pulled back about 3% to $39.15 on August 4, 2026 after Q2 results and wildfire news, from a $40.45 previous close. The 52-week range is $35.50 to $43.50, so the stock sits in the middle of its range after falling from the July high near $42. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium and elevated near term. Regulated utility earnings are defensive, but Avista has wildfire-related asset damage and cost recovery uncertainty, a difficult Washington rate case with a decision expected around mid-December, about 119% debt/equity, negative free cash flow (-$176M TTM), hydroelectric dependency, and small-cap liquidity. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because SEC filings and Yahoo Finance data are consistent. Return confidence is medium because wildfire costs, rate case outcomes, data-center load, hydro conditions, and interest rates drive the stock outcome. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | AVA looks like a modest income-and-growth utility holding, but certainty is lower than in July because utility earnings were flat in Q2 and the near-term regulatory and wildfire paths are uncertain. | Medium |
AVA AI stock forecast
The AVA AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges because Avista Corporation combines stable regulated demand with wildfire-related uncertainty, a difficult Washington rate case, capital intensity, hydro variability, and rate-sensitive valuation. Using the $39.15 price reference, the confirmed 2026 utility EPS guidance midpoint near $2.62, and a mechanical multiple model, anchors are about $35 in a bear case, $41 in a base case, and $50 in a bullish case before dividends. These ranges are not promises.
$47 to $52 before dividends
More likely if Q2 wildfire costs stay manageable and recoverable, the Washington rate case settles favorably or the mid-December order supports the four-year plan, large data-center load returns to the capital plan, EPS moves above $2.70, and the market values AVA near 18x forward earnings.
$38 to $43 before dividends
More likely if 2026 utility EPS guidance of $2.52 to $2.72 remains intact, wildfire costs are modest and mostly recoverable, EPS compounds near the 4% to 6% long-term target, dividend growth tracks EPS, and the market values AVA near 15x forward earnings.
$33 to $37 before dividends
More likely if wildfire costs and restoration drag on 2026 results, regulators limit cost recovery, the Washington rate case outcome is unfavorable or delayed, the data-center agreement stays paused, hydro conditions are unfavorable, or interest rates rise and utility multiples contract.
AVA AI technical analysis
AVA AI technical analysis is cautious as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff. Yahoo Finance showed AVA trading near $39.15 intraday on August 4, down about 3% from a $40.45 previous close, with a 52-week range of $35.50 to $43.50, beta of 0.24, and average volume near 722,741 shares. The stock rose from the March 2026 low near $36 toward the July high near $42, then fell back sharply after Q2 results and Spokane wildfire news, leaving it in the middle of its 52-week range.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $39.15 intraday on August 4, 2026 | Yahoo Finance showed AVA near $39.15 after a $40.45 previous close. |
| Immediate support | $38.50 to $39 | The August 4 low near $38.77 marks the immediate floor; a close below it opens the next zone. |
| Major support | $37 to $38 | This zone held during earlier 2026 consolidation and represents a key longer-trend reference near the March low. |
| Deeper support | $35.50 to $36.50 | The 52-week low near $35.50 sits in this zone. A break below would challenge the broader trend framework. |
| Near resistance | $40.40 to $41 | The previous close near $40.45 and the July trading area provide the first resistance overhead. |
| Upper resistance | $42 to $43.50 | The 52-week high near $43.50 is the major resistance. AVA traded near $42 in July before the pullback. |
| Moving averages | 50-day data not displayed on Yahoo Finance summary | AVA is below the recent July highs, and moving-average data should be checked on a live chart for current levels. |
| Momentum | Negative short-term after the August 4 decline | Momentum turned down after the earnings and wildfire news; AVA needs to reclaim $40.45 to rebuild short-term momentum. |
| Volume | Average volume near 722,741 shares | Volume is elevated around the Q2 earnings and wildfire news; watch for follow-through and distribution on rallies. |
| Volatility | Beta near 0.24 | AVA has very low market beta, but the stock can still move on rate case outcomes, wildfire recovery, and utility sector sentiment. |
| Invalidation | Close below $37, then below $35.50 | A sustained close below $37 weakens the 2026 recovery setup. A break below $35.50 would challenge the entire trend. |
AVA AI trading strategy
The AVA AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It combines chart levels with the confirmed 2026 EPS guidance, wildfire cost recovery, the Washington rate case timeline, data-center load status, balance-sheet leverage, dividend yield, capital expenditures, and customer affordability trends.
Watch for AVA to hold $38.50 to $39 and then reclaim $40.45 with volume above the 723,000 average. Confirmation is stronger if Q2 wildfire restoration cost estimates stay modest, the August 7 rebuttal testimony in the Washington rate case is constructive, and no further adverse regulatory or hydro news appears.
A failed reclaim of $40.45 followed by a close below $38.50 should reduce trend confidence, especially if wildfire costs or the rate case outlook worsen.
AVA offers about a 4.86% forward dividend yield with a $1.97 annual dividend. If the stock pulls back toward $36 to $38, the yield would rise toward 5.2% to 5.5% and may attract income-oriented buyers. The next ex-dividend date should be confirmed from the company calendar.
Dividend capture carries ex-date price risk. The dividend is covered by utility EPS (payout ratio near 75% of the guidance midpoint), but track the payout ratio and cash flow against 2026 guidance and wildfire cost estimates.
Track the confirmed 2026 utility EPS guidance of $2.52 to $2.72, the $615M 2026 Avista Utilities base capex plan and the 2027-2030 capex outlook, the Washington rate case rebuttal (August 7), hearings (September 17-18) and expected order (mid-December), wildfire restoration and cost recovery filings, Idaho and Oregon rate activity, hydro conditions, the data-center MOU status, and debt and equity issuance plans.
Reduce confidence if EPS growth depends mainly on leverage or equity issuance rather than authorized utility returns and real load growth, if wildfire costs are disallowed, or if dividend coverage becomes stretched.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Avista because homes, businesses, and communities in the Inland Northwest and parts of Alaska need reliable electricity and natural gas service. The business converts regulated infrastructure investment and hydroelectric generation into earnings through approved rate structures.
AVA has regulated service territories, generation and grid assets, customer density in its Pacific Northwest markets, local operating experience, and regulatory relationships. The moat is durable, but returns are determined through regulatory proceedings rather than open-market pricing.
The thesis fails if wildfire costs are not recoverable or are larger than expected, regulators reject or delay cost recovery, the Washington rate case outcome is unfavorable, hydro conditions are unfavorable, customer bill pressure grows, the capital plan requires excessive debt or equity, or the data-center demand upside stays off the books.
CEO Heather Rosentrater and CFO Kevin Christie are managing wildfire recovery, a difficult Washington rate case, the paused data-center agreement, and the 2026-2030 capital plan. The team is experienced, but the small size of the utility means key-person risk exists and near-term decisions on cost recovery are not fully in management control.
Avista sits inside grid modernization, electrification, Pacific Northwest population growth, reshoring interest, data-center power demand, and clean energy transition trends. These are favorable for utility demand growth, but Avista must receive regulatory approval for cost recovery and manage customer affordability in its modest service territory economy.
At about 15x the 2026 guidance midpoint and 1.20x book value, AVA screens below the large-cap regulated utility average with a 4.86% dividend yield. Margin of safety improves if the stock retreats toward $36 to $38 while 2026 guidance and rate case outcomes remain intact.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $39.15 intraday on August 4, 2026; previous close $40.45 | Yahoo Finance AVA summary | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $3.235 billion intraday, verified against price times shares | Yahoo Finance AVA summary | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | ~82.6 million shares (implied from market cap / price) | Yahoo Finance AVA statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $1.92 billion | Yahoo Finance AVA statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $206 million | Yahoo Finance AVA statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM EPS | $2.51 | Yahoo Finance AVA summary | August 4, 2026 |
| Cash and total debt | $18 million cash, ~119% debt/equity | Yahoo Finance AVA statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 GAAP net income | $35 million or $0.43 per diluted share | Avista Corp Q2 2026 earnings release (GlobeNewswire via Yahoo Finance) | August 4, 2026 |
| H1 2026 GAAP net income | $127 million or $1.54 per diluted share | Avista Corp Q2 2026 earnings release (GlobeNewswire via Yahoo Finance) | August 4, 2026 |
| 2026 utility EPS guidance | $2.52 to $2.72 per diluted share, confirmed on Aug 3, 2026 | Avista Corp Q2 2026 earnings release (GlobeNewswire via Yahoo Finance) | August 4, 2026 |
| Forward dividend and yield | $1.97 (4.86% forward yield) | Yahoo Finance AVA summary | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation statistics | Forward P/E 15.38, trailing P/E 16.12, price/book 1.20, EV/EBITDA 9.94, levered FCF -$176.38M (as of 7/31/2026) | Yahoo Finance AVA statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical statistics | 52-week range $35.50 to $43.50, beta 0.24, avg volume 722,741 | Yahoo Finance AVA summary | August 4, 2026 |
This AVA AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 4, 2026 and may be wrong if wildfire recovery costs, earnings, regulation, interest rates, hydro conditions, customer demand, capital market conditions, or company disclosures change.
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