Astronics Corporation research snapshot
ATRO AI stock analysis currently reads Astronics Corporation as a niche aerospace and defense supplier riding a strong commercial aerospace cycle. Q1 2026 revenue rose 12% to $231 million, gross margin expanded to 32.6%, bookings hit an all-time record of about $290 million, and backlog reached a record $734 million. Management raised fiscal 2026 revenue guidance to $970 million to $1 billion and guided Q2 2026 to a new quarterly record of $245 million to $250 million. At the August 4, 2026 data cutoff, ATRO closed at $71.12 on August 3, up 2.35%, giving a market capitalization of about $3.06 billion. The stock is up about 149% over 52 weeks but has pulled back roughly 20% from its 52-week high of $88.72. This ATRO AI stock analysis uses conditional scenarios and source-backed facts for information only. It is not investment advice.
Current price
$71.12 at the August 3, 2026 Nasdaq close
Market cap
$3.06 billion (StockAnalysis, 43.01 million shares); Yahoo implies about $3.38 billion at its delayed quote with a different share count
AI score
62 / 100
Rating
Cyclical aerospace recovery with record backlog and expanding margins; the valuation still prices in a lot of the upside
Trend status
Up 149.11% over 52 weeks but corrected about 20% from the 52-week high; the August 3 close sits above the 200-day average and just below the 50-day average
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Astronics makes in-flight entertainment and connectivity systems, aircraft lighting and safety products, flight-critical electrical power, seat motion systems, and automated test equipment for aerospace, defense, and industrial customers. About 70% of sales go to commercial aircraft, split between new production and aftermarket. | Medium |
| Moat | Moderate moat from FAA certifications, long-standing OEM relationships, the widest IFEC product range of its suppliers, and specialized engineering in aircraft electrical systems and test equipment. The March 2026 win to supply fuel tank access doors for the Boeing 737 MAX adds program content. | Medium-low |
| Management | Chairman, President and CEO Peter Gundermann has led the company through multiple aerospace cycles. CFO Nancy Hedges and the segment presidents run a business that raised guidance after a record booking quarter. Insider ownership is 6.21% and institutional ownership is 88.56%, per StockAnalysis. | Medium |
| Financial trend | The recovery is well established. Fiscal 2025 revenue reached $862.13 million and net income turned positive at $29.36 million. Q1 2026 delivered $231 million of sales, a 32.6% gross margin, and $25.5 million of net income. Debt remains high at about $379 million versus $11.87 million of cash. | Medium |
| Valuation | TTM P/E of about 69x reflects a stock that has already repriced for the recovery. The forward P/E of about 29x on fiscal 2026 estimates is more reasonable but assumes margins and earnings keep expanding. EV/EBITDA of about 30x is elevated for an industrial. | Medium-low |
| Technical trend | The stock is up 149.11% over 52 weeks but corrected from the $88.72 high to $71.12, a drop of about 20%. It trades above the 200-day moving average of $59.11 and just below the 50-day average of $73.17. RSI is a neutral 50.36. Use live chart data before acting. | Medium |
| Risk level | High. The business depends on commercial aerospace production rates, carries about $379 million of debt against $11.87 million of cash, has customer concentration, and is exposed to tariffs and component costs. Q2 2026 earnings are scheduled for August 11, 2026. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Medium for reported financials, backlog, bookings, price, market cap, valuation, and moving averages. Lower for forward earnings because the aerospace cycle, defense budgets, and tariff costs are outside model control. | Medium |
| Investment certainty | Low-to-medium. The cyclical recovery thesis is supported by record backlog and raised guidance, but the stock price already reflects much of the improvement, and the debt load leaves little room for error if the cycle stalls. | Low-to-medium |
ATRO AI stock forecast
The ATRO AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the August 3, 2026 close of $71.12 rather than a point target. Ranges are anchored to the sell-side price target set (low $45.73, average $79.48, high $100) and a two-year EPS scenario model. The bull case requires continued aerospace ramp and margin expansion; the base case assumes moderate execution with debt service costs; the bear case models a macro or aerospace downturn.
$85 to $105
More likely if commercial aerospace production rates ramp as planned, the US Army radio test program ramps to full production, IFEC and seat motion demand stay strong, margins keep expanding, and fiscal 2026 revenue comes in near the $1 billion high end of guidance.
$60 to $85
More likely if the aerospace cycle continues at a moderate pace, revenue grows in the low double digits, margins improve gradually, and the company services its debt while maintaining backlog. The analyst average target of $79.48 sits in this range.
$35 to $55
More likely if a commercial aerospace downturn, recession, war-related disruption, or supply chain shock slows the cycle, if tariff and component costs compress margins, or if the debt burden becomes harder to service. The analyst low target of $45.73 sits in this range.
ATRO AI technical analysis
ATRO AI technical analysis starts from the August 3, 2026 close of $71.12 and the 52-week range of $22.73 to $88.72. The stock pulled back about 20% from the 52-week high and now trades below its 50-day moving average of $73.17 but above its 200-day moving average of $59.11. Moving averages and RSI are sourced from StockAnalysis S&P data as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, live levels should be confirmed in a charting tool before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $71.12 | August 3, 2026 Nasdaq close, up 2.35%. The session range was $68.98 to $71.83 with after-hours trading at $70.35. StockAnalysis quote data. |
| Near support | $68 to $70 | The August 3 session low was $68.98. A hold here keeps the recent pullback shallow; a close below would open up the next zone. |
| Key support | $64 to $66 | A secondary floor from the recent consolidation. Losing this zone would signal a deeper correction toward the 200-day average. |
| Major support | $59.11 | The 200-day moving average. A decisive close below this level would break the longer-term uptrend structure. |
| Near resistance | $73.17 | The 50-day moving average sits just above the price. A close above it would signal the pullback is fading. |
| Major resistance | $88.72 | The 52-week high. A break above would put the stock back into price discovery and confirm trend continuation. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $73.17; 200-day $59.11 | StockAnalysis S&P data, August 4, 2026. The stock trades below the 50-day and above the 200-day. |
| Momentum | RSI 50.36; +149.11% over 52 weeks; about 20% below the high | Momentum is neutral on the relative strength index and strongly positive over 52 weeks. The recent pullback suggests buyers and sellers are in balance near the 50-day average. |
| Volume | 448,608 shares on August 3; 20-day average 524,897 | Volume on the up day was below the 20-day average. Adequate liquidity for a mid-cap, but thin enough to amplify earnings-driven moves. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.13; 52-week range $22.73 to $88.72 | The wide range and above-market beta reflect the cyclical nature of the business. Position sizing should account for this. |
| Invalidation | Close below $59.11 | A decisive close below the 200-day moving average would weaken the recovery setup and signal the trend may be reversing. |
ATRO AI trading strategy
The ATRO AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It should be paired with live quotes, position sizing, the August 11, 2026 earnings report, and fresh SEC filings. The high debt load and cyclicality argue for defined risk on any setup.
Look for ATRO to reclaim the 50-day moving average at $73.17 with expanding volume, then hold above it before the August 11 earnings report. A close above the $78 to $80 zone would improve the case for a move back toward the $88.72 high.
A close back below $68 would invalidate a near-term breakout attempt. A close below $59.11, the 200-day average, would signal the uptrend is broken.
If ATRO pulls back toward the $64 to $66 support zone or the $59.11 200-day average without a broken aerospace thesis, assess whether the decline reflects macro noise, tariff or component cost news, or company-specific issues such as the upcoming earnings report.
Do not average down without a predefined maximum loss and a fresh review of the balance sheet, backlog trend, and aerospace production indicators.
Track Q2 2026 results on August 11, 2026, commercial aerospace delivery schedules at Boeing and Airbus, defense budget trends, the US Army radio test program ramp, quarterly bookings and backlog, and the debt-to-EBITDA trajectory as lead indicators for the cycle.
Reduce or exit positions if bookings decline sharply, backlog falls for consecutive quarters, margins compress, or the debt load increases without corresponding cash flow.
Investment research summary
Astronics designs and sells the electronics, lighting, power, connectivity, and test equipment that make commercial and military aircraft function, comfortable, and connected. Customers pay for certified, flight-proven components that are hard to swap once an aircraft program is designed around them, plus recurring aftermarket content.
The moat comes from FAA and military certifications, long-standing OEM relationships, the widest IFEC product range of its suppliers, and specialized engineering in aircraft electrical distribution and automated test systems. Wins such as the Boeing 737 MAX fuel tank access doors and the Vertical Aerospace Valo eVTOL power distribution agreement add long-term program content.
The thesis can fail if commercial aerospace enters a new downturn, the high debt load of about $379 million against $11.87 million of cash becomes harder to service, tariff and memory chip costs compress margins, or key OEM production schedules slip. A prolonged Middle East conflict or recession could slow airline capex and aircraft orders.
CEO Peter Gundermann has led the company since 2003 through multiple cycles, and the current team raised guidance after a record booking quarter. CFO Nancy Hedges outlined margin and cost targets on the Q1 call. Insider ownership is 6.21% and institutions own 88.56% per StockAnalysis.
Commercial aerospace is in a rising production cycle, with Boeing and Airbus planning to raise build rates 30% to 50% depending on the model. The IFEC trend gives airlines a reason to retrofit older fleets, and eVTOL and uncrewed aircraft represent emerging growth vectors where Astronics has an off-the-shelf product position.
At about 69x trailing earnings, 18.9x book value, and 30x EV/EBITDA, the stock prices in a strong recovery. Only the forward P/E of about 29x on fiscal 2026 estimates offers a more reasonable entry, and that assumes margin expansion continues. The low cash position relative to debt reduces the margin of safety.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATRO latest completed-session price | $71.12 at the August 3, 2026 Nasdaq close, up 2.35%; after-hours $70.35 | StockAnalysis quote data (S&P Global) | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $3.06 billion (StockAnalysis, 43.01 million shares); verified as 71.12 x 43.01M by financial_rigor with 0.04% deviation; Yahoo implies about $3.38 billion at its delayed quote | StockAnalysis (S&P Global) and Yahoo Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding and float | 43.01 million shares outstanding, up 1.18% year over year; float 40.34 million; current share class 38.45 million | StockAnalysis (S&P Global) | August 4, 2026 |
| Revenue (TTM) and fiscal history | TTM revenue $886.81 million, up 8.6%. Fiscal 2025 $862.13 million, up 8.39%; fiscal 2024 $795.43 million; fiscal 2023 $689.21 million; fiscal 2022 $534.89 million; fiscal 2021 $444.91 million | StockAnalysis (S&P Global) | August 4, 2026 |
| Net income and EPS (TTM) | TTM net income $45.37 million and TTM EPS of $1.03. Fiscal 2025 net income was $29.36 million after losses in fiscal 2021 to 2024 | StockAnalysis (S&P Global) | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | TTM P/E 69.24; forward P/E 29.30; P/S 3.45; P/B 18.92; PEG 1.51; EV/EBITDA 30.41; EV/EBIT 37.85; EV/FCF 142.57 | StockAnalysis (S&P Global) | August 4, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | Cash and equivalents $11.87 million; total debt $379.11 million; net cash negative $367.24 million or negative $8.54 per share; debt/equity 2.34; debt/EBITDA 3.37; interest coverage 7.70 | StockAnalysis (S&P Global) | August 4, 2026 |
| Margins and returns | Gross margin 31.38%; operating margin 11.46%; net margin 5.12%; EBITDA margin 12.70%; ROE 21.18%; ROA 9.01%; ROIC 19.24% | StockAnalysis (S&P Global) | August 4, 2026 |
| Free cash flow | TTM operating cash flow $64.76 million; capital expenditures negative $40.73 million; free cash flow $24.03 million or $0.56 per share. Fiscal 2025 FCF was $32.09 million | StockAnalysis (S&P Global) | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results (reported May 12, 2026) | Revenue $231 million, up 12%; gross margin 32.6%; net income $25.5 million or $0.67 per diluted share; adjusted EBITDA margin 16.4%; bookings about $290 million, an all-time record; backlog $734 million, an all-time record; aerospace backlog $651.4 million and test systems backlog $83 million | Astronics Q1 2026 earnings call transcript | August 4, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 guidance | Revenue guidance raised to $970 million to $1 billion from $950 million to $990 million; Q2 2026 revenue guided to $245 million to $250 million, a new quarterly record; 2026 capital expenditures expected at $40 million to $45 million | Astronics Q1 2026 earnings call transcript | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day moving average $73.17; 200-day moving average $59.11; RSI 50.36; 52-week change +149.11%; beta 1.13; 52-week range $22.73 to $88.72 | StockAnalysis (S&P Global) | August 4, 2026 |
| Short interest | 3.02 million shares short; 7.02% of shares outstanding and 7.48% of float; 3.58 days to cover | StockAnalysis (S&P Global) | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus and price targets | Consensus Buy from 5 analysts with an average price target of $79.48 (low $45.73, median $83.33, high $100). TD Cowen raised its target to $100 on May 28, 2026; Truist holds $107; Craig-Hallum raised to $100 on May 13, 2026 | StockAnalysis (S&P Global and TipRanks) | August 4, 2026 |
| Recent catalysts and ownership | Q2 2026 earnings scheduled for August 11, 2026. UK appeal court issued a favorable ruling on July 27, 2026 in the Lufthansa Technik IP case. Vertical Aerospace selected Astronics for the Valo eVTOL power distribution system on June 29, 2026. Insiders own 6.21% and institutions 88.56% | StockAnalysis news list and company profile (S&P Global) | August 4, 2026 |
This ATRO AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are conditional ranges based on available data as of August 4, 2026 and can be wrong if aerospace production schedules, defense contracts, tariffs, earnings reports, or macro conditions change after the data cutoff.
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