Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, S.A.B. de C.V. research snapshot
ASR AI stock analysis currently reads Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste as a high-margin airport concession operator with scarce assets in Mexico, Puerto Rico, and Colombia, plus a new airport retail platform in the United States. The business has long-lived concessions, strong operating margins, and a 6.7% year-to-date passenger increase in Colombia, but June 2026 total traffic fell 5.8% year over year and Mexico traffic fell 8.5%. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, the latest available ASR close was $285.12 and the calculated market capitalization was about $8.55 billion. This ASR AI stock analysis uses dated scenario ranges for information only, not a guaranteed price prediction or investment advice.
Current price
$285.12 latest available close on July 10, 2026
Market cap
$8.55 billion calculated from 30.0 million ADS; StockAnalysis reports about $8.49 billion
AI score
63 / 100
Rating
High-quality airport concessions with strong cash generation, but traffic weakness, regulation, and acquisition leverage lower conviction
Trend status
Below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages with RSI near 38 after a June traffic slowdown
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | ASUR operates 16 airports across Mexico, Puerto Rico, and Colombia and is expanding into airport retail at LAX, O’Hare, and JFK. Passenger fees, commercial services, and concession rights create a resilient operating base. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from scarce airport locations, long concession terms, regulatory permissions, traffic scale, and established commercial tenants. It is meaningful but depends on compliance, capital spending, and government tariff rules. | High |
| Management | Adolfo Castro Rivas has been CEO since 2011 and finance director since 2000. The team has built a multi-country platform and completed the U.S. airport retail acquisition, but the capital structure and integration plan deserve close monitoring. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose to Ps.37.24 billion and operating profit was Ps.16.99 billion, while net income fell to Ps.10.92 billion. The decline reflects higher costs, financing effects, foreign exchange, and a larger acquisition and capex base. | High |
| Valuation | At $285.12, the audited-input model gives about 14.68x trailing EPS and 33.90x free cash flow per ADS. The earnings multiple is moderate for the asset quality, but the free cash flow yield is only about 2.95% after heavy investment. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The latest reviewed chart snapshot placed ASR below the 50-day SMA near $300.86 and the 200-day SMA near $320.69, with RSI near 37.98. The setup is weak to neutral until the stock reclaims the moving averages. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include tourist demand, Cancun concentration, Mexican tariff regulation, peso movements, concession fees, large capex requirements, debt from acquisitions, hurricanes, and execution at the new U.S. retail platform. | High |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because core figures are supported by audited filings and official releases. Scenario confidence is medium because the 2026 operating base is changing and recent traffic data is softer. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | ASUR is a conditional research setup rather than a clean buy signal. The concession moat is clear, but the next leg depends on traffic stabilization, cash conversion, and returns from recent expansion. | Medium |
ASR AI stock forecast
The ASR AI stock forecast uses the July 10 close of $285.12, calculated 2025 EPS of about $19.42 per ADS, and a three-year scenario model. The audited outputs were about $517 for a bullish case, $360 for a base case, and $200 for a bearish case. The ranges below are wider than those point estimates and are not guaranteed prices.
$450 to $560
More likely if Mexican and Puerto Rican traffic stabilizes, Colombia keeps growing, ASUR US Airports contributes a full year of profitable results, commercial revenue per passenger improves, capex stays controlled, and the market supports about 20x normalized EPS.
$320 to $400
More likely if passenger demand recovers gradually, the 2026 acquisition adds earnings without a major integration miss, operating margins remain strong, debt stays manageable, and EPS compounds near 5% with a mid-teens valuation multiple.
$175 to $230
More likely if traffic declines persist at Cancun or San Juan, Mexican tariff economics worsen, the peso or financing costs hurt reported earnings, capex overruns, or the U.S. retail acquisition fails to earn its cost of capital and the multiple falls toward 12x EPS.
ASR AI technical analysis
ASR AI technical analysis is weak to neutral at the July 12, 2026 cutoff. The July 10 close of $285.12 was below the reviewed 50-day SMA near $300.86 and 200-day SMA near $320.69. RSI near 37.98 was close to oversold territory but did not independently confirm a reversal. The 52-week range of $275.00 to $381.52 shows that the stock is near its lower band.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $285.12 | FinancialContent and Macrotrends recorded the latest available July 10, 2026 close. The market was closed on the July 12 data cutoff. |
| Near support | $275 to $285 | The area contains the latest close and the available 52-week low near $275. A close below it would weaken the current range framework. |
| Deeper support | Below $275 requires a fresh chart review | No stronger historical level was validated in the reviewed snapshot. Treat a break below the 52-week low as a thesis reset rather than as an automatic buy opportunity. |
| Near resistance | $300 to $305 | ChartMill reported a 50-day SMA near $300.86 on its July 8, 2026 snapshot. A sustained reclaim would improve the short-term structure. |
| Higher resistance | $320 to $322 | The 200-day SMA was near $320.69 in the same ChartMill snapshot and is the main long-term trend reference. |
| Moving averages | 50-day SMA $300.86; 200-day SMA $320.69 | ChartMill technical snapshot reviewed July 12, 2026. These values change as new sessions are added. |
| Momentum | RSI 37.98 | ChartMill classified the reading as neutral. A low RSI can persist during a downtrend and is not a standalone signal. |
| Volume | 96,423 shares on July 8; 62,320 average volume | MarketBeat reported above-average volume during the sharp July 8 decline. Watch for volume expansion on any reclaim of $300. |
| Volatility | 52-week range $275.00 to $381.52; beta 0.18 | The range comes from Macrotrends and beta from StockAnalysis. The low beta does not remove gap risk around traffic, earnings, or regulation news. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $275 | A decisive break below the reviewed 52-week low would invalidate the current rebound framework and call for updated traffic, balance-sheet, and valuation work. |
ASR AI trading strategy
The ASR AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It combines price confirmation with passenger traffic, regulated revenue, cash flow, capex, debt, and acquisition-return checks.
Watch for ASR to reclaim $300 to $305 and hold above the 50-day SMA with stronger volume. A later move through $320 to $322 would be a separate confirmation of the long-term trend, not an assumption.
A failed reclaim followed by a close below $275 invalidates the short-term rebound setup. Recheck the chart after any monthly traffic release or earnings surprise.
If ASR remains near $275 to $285, compare the price with passenger traffic, commercial revenue per passenger, cash generation, debt, and the full-year contribution from ASUR US Airports before treating the area as support.
Do not average down only because ASR trades below its 52-week high. A continuing Cancun decline or adverse tariff change can make historical support unreliable.
Track monthly traffic by country, regulated revenue per passenger, commercial revenue per passenger, adjusted EBITDA margin, operating cash flow, capex against the 2024 to 2028 master development plan, debt maturities, and ASUR US Airports revenue and EBITDA.
Reduce confidence if growth is driven mainly by IFRIC 12 construction revenue, debt-funded acquisitions, or accounting gains rather than passenger growth, commercial yield, operating cash flow, and durable returns on invested capital.
Investment research summary
Customers pay ASUR for access to scarce airport infrastructure and for the convenience of moving passengers, airlines, retailers, and services through it. Passenger charges are the core economic engine, while commercial leases, parking, complementary services, and airport retail add yield. Construction revenue is largely an IFRIC 12 accounting consequence and should not be mistaken for incremental profit.
The moat is built from long-lived concessions, airport locations, regulatory permissions, traffic scale, operating know-how, and established commercial relationships. Cancun accounted for 72.3% of Mexican passenger traffic and 77.7% of Mexican revenue in 2025, which makes the asset valuable but also concentrates the economic exposure. The moat can be damaged by tariff intervention, concession non-compliance, or poor capital allocation.
The thesis fails if tourism demand remains weak, Cancun loses traffic to competing destinations, the Mexican tariff system reduces allowable revenue, foreign exchange and interest costs pressure earnings, or capex overruns reduce cash returns. ASUR can also destroy value if the U.S. airport retail acquisition adds debt and complexity without producing durable EBITDA or if a concession dispute becomes material.
Adolfo Castro Rivas has been CEO since June 2011 and finance director since January 2000. In 2025 ASUR spent Ps.7.81 billion on concession improvements and equipment, paid Ps.24.0 billion of dividends, and funded the ASUR Airports acquisition with Ps.5.11 billion of cash. The decision to expand while returning capital can work, but it raises the standard for integration and balance-sheet discipline. Series BB holders also have the right to nominate the CEO and appoint or remove half of the executive officers.
Air travel, international tourism, and airport retail are long-term growth themes, and ASUR now has 16 airport concessions across the Americas plus commercial operations at LAX, O’Hare, and JFK. The near-term trend is mixed: 1Q26 passenger traffic rose 1.9% year over year, but June 2026 traffic fell 5.8% and Mexico traffic fell 8.5%. The industry opportunity is real, but airport economics remain exposed to travel cycles, regulation, and local infrastructure commitments.
At $285.12, the audited-input model produced 14.68x trailing EPS, 2.84x book value, 33.90x free cash flow, and a 2.95% free cash flow yield. The 2025 dividend payout included extraordinary distributions and should not be treated as a recurring forward yield. The margin of safety depends on traffic recovery, stable tariffs, disciplined capex, and a full-year contribution from ASUR US Airports.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASR latest available close | $285.12 on July 10, 2026 | FinancialContent market quote | July 12, 2026 |
| Market cap and ADS count | $8.55 billion calculated from 30.0 million ADS; source snapshot about $8.49 billion | StockAnalysis market cap history | July 10 to July 12, 2026 |
| ADS conversion and shares | 300.0 million common shares; 1 ADS represents 10 B-series shares | ASUR 2025 Form 20-F | April 16, 2026 filing |
| FY2025 revenue and operating profit | Ps.37.24 billion revenue; Ps.16.99 billion operating profit | ASUR audited 2025 Form 20-F | December 31, 2025 financial statements |
| FY2025 net income and EPS | Ps.10.92 billion net income; Ps.34.96 EPS per B share | ASUR audited 2025 Form 20-F | December 31, 2025 financial statements |
| FY2025 operating cash flow and free cash flow | Ps.12.35 billion operating cash flow; about Ps.4.54 billion free cash flow | ASUR cash flow statement and StockAnalysis | FY2025 data reviewed July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 cash and debt | Ps.11.12 billion cash and equivalents; Ps.27.49 billion total debt plus interest in the 4Q25 release | ASUR 4Q25 results and MarketScreener mirror | December 31, 2025 balance sheet |
| 1Q26 operating results | Ps.8.86 billion revenue, Ps.5.35 billion EBITDA, and 19.0 million passengers | ASUR 1Q26 earnings release | April 22, 2026 release |
| June 2026 passenger traffic | 5.64 million total passengers, down 5.8% year over year; Mexico down 8.5% | ASUR June 2026 traffic release | July 6, 2026 release |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day SMA $300.86; 200-day SMA $320.69; RSI 37.98 | ChartMill technical analysis | July 8, 2026 snapshot |
| Concession concentration and regulation | Cancun represented 72.3% of Mexican traffic and 77.7% of Mexican revenue in 2025; Mexican tariff rates are capped through 2028 | ASUR 2025 Form 20-F | 2025 annual report filed April 16, 2026 |
This page is an information tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data and assumptions that may be wrong. Market prices, technical levels, traffic, financial results, and regulatory conditions can change after the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. Verify current filings and market data before making any decision.
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