Ascendis Pharma A/S research snapshot
ASND AI stock analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff reads Ascendis Pharma as a rapidly commercializing rare-disease biopharma that is now profitable, with the stock at $243.91 at the July 31, 2026 close and a market capitalization near $16.08 billion, re-verified during this full refresh as $243.91 times 65.92 million shares outstanding with 0.01% deviation across the StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics pages. The Q1 2026 report, released May 7, 2026, delivered total revenue of EUR 246.6 million, up about 144% year over year, with YORVIPATH at EUR 196.9 million and SKYTROFA at EUR 44.0 million, plus a first IFRS operating profit of EUR 25 million and a non-IFRS operating profit of EUR 55 million. Reported net profit of EUR 629 million included recognition of EUR 679 million of previously unrecognized deferred tax assets, a one-time non-cash gain, so investors should weight operating profit, non-IFRS net profit of EUR 18 million, and operating cash flow rather than the headline number. Since Q1, Ascendis moved to a direct ordinary-share Nasdaq listing in April, fully redeemed its $575 million convertible notes via conversion into 3,635,813 shares in May, agreed to sell a priority review voucher for $187.5 million, and ran a $120 million repurchase program. Analysts remain Strong Buy with an average 12-month target of $308.72 across 18 firms, but the stock has pulled back about 13.6% from its 52-week high of $282.15 and now trades below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages. This page uses scenario ranges, not a certain price prediction, and is for information only.
Current price
$243.91
Market cap
$16.08 billion
AI score
64 / 100
Rating
Strong rare-disease growth at a premium valuation
Trend status
Short-term pullback below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages; medium-term uptrend intact above the 100-day and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Ascendis sells once-weekly therapies based on its TransCon platform, with three FDA-approved products across four rare endocrine indications. Q1 2026 revenue of EUR 246.6 million grew about 144% year over year and the company posted a first IFRS operating profit of EUR 25 million. | High |
| Moat | The moat combines approved products, orphan-drug protections such as YUVIWEL exclusivity through February 2033, clinical evidence, TransCon manufacturing know-how, prescriber relationships, and a commercial footprint covering more than 70 countries. It remains product and indication specific and depends on payer access. | Medium-high |
| Management | Jan Mikkelsen and the team delivered three consecutive FDA approvals, launched YUVIWEL, converted and redeemed the $575 million convertible notes, ran a $120 million repurchase program, and sold the priority review voucher for $187.5 million. The next test is converting rapid product growth into durable operating cash flow. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was EUR 720.13 million, up 98.0%. Q1 2026 revenue was EUR 246.60 million, up from EUR 100.95 million, with operating profit of EUR 25 million and non-IFRS operating profit of EUR 55 million. Reported net profit of EUR 629 million included a one-time EUR 679 million deferred tax asset recognition. | High |
| Valuation | At $243.91, the verified market capitalization was about $16.08 billion. The stock trades near 37x forward earnings, 16.1x sales, and 26.9x book value, though trailing PE and price to free cash flow are distorted by the one-time tax gain and early profitability. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The stock closed at $243.91 on July 31, 2026, about 13.6% below its 52-week high of $282.15 and below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, while staying above its 100-day and 200-day moving averages. 14-day RSI near 40 and 14-day ADX near 18 point to a pullback rather than a strong trend. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high because reimbursement and pricing, YORVIPATH product concentration, a declining SKYTROFA, YUVIWEL launch execution, EU regulatory timing, IP litigation, currency swings, share-count dilution, and a demanding valuation can all alter the thesis. | High |
| AI confidence | Public disclosures and cross-checked math make descriptive analysis strong, but no model can reliably predict patient uptake, payer decisions, trial outcomes, regulator decisions, or the market multiple. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Commercial progress is tangible and the balance sheet improved after the convertible redemption, but investment certainty is lower than data confidence because future product mix, profitability quality, and valuation support remain open questions. | Medium-low |
ASND AI stock forecast
The ASND AI stock forecast uses conditional scenario ranges, not a promised target. Around the July 31, 2026 close of $243.91, the framework references the analyst 12-month band of $260.36 low, $308.72 average, and $357.77 high from 18 analysts and the 52-week range of $203.80 to $282.15. Outcomes depend on YORVIPATH sequential growth, YUVIWEL enrollment, the operating cash flow guidance update after the Q2 report, EU regulatory timing, reimbursement, and the valuation multiple.
$310 to $360
More likely if YORVIPATH reaccelerates in Q2 as the roughly EUR 15 million of Q1 one-time items reverse, YUVIWEL scales past a few hundred patients, the EU decision lands in Q4 2026, management reaffirms or raises the EUR 500 million operating cash flow target after the Q2 report, and label expansions progress.
$250 to $310
More likely if YORVIPATH keeps growing at a steady pace, YUVIWEL adds patients gradually, operating margin improves through the year, and the stock holds near the analyst average target of about $308.72.
$185 to $235
More likely if YORVIPATH growth slows, reimbursement or pricing pressure builds, SKYTROFA keeps declining, YUVIWEL adoption disappoints, the EU decision slips, or the market compresses the forward multiple toward the 52-week low area near $203.80.
ASND AI technical analysis
ASND AI technical analysis uses the August 2, 2026 data cutoff and the July 31, 2026 close of $243.91. The stock sits about 13.6% below its 52-week high of $282.15, below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, and above its 100-day and 200-day moving averages, with 14-day RSI near 40 and 14-day ADX near 18. Recheck every level against live price, volume, and company news before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $243.91 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close; market cap math uses 65.92 million shares outstanding. |
| Near support | $236 to $240 | The 100-day moving average was near $238.18 on July 31, 2026, a natural first pullback support zone. |
| Next support | $224 to $228 | The 200-day moving average was near $226.22, the medium-term trend reference and a deeper support cluster. |
| Near resistance | $250 to $253 | The 5-day moving average was near $250.98, the first overhead zone after the July pullback. |
| Next resistance | $259 to $262 | The 20-day moving average was near $259.92, a stronger resistance band that needs volume to clear. |
| 50-day moving average | $244.62 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 50-day moving average near $244.62 on July 31, 2026, just above price. |
| 200-day moving average | $226.22 | Barchart reported the 200-day moving average near $226.22, well below price and still rising. |
| 100-day moving average | $238.18 | Barchart reported the 100-day moving average near $238.18, the current first support level. |
| Momentum | 14-day RSI near 40 | RSI near 40 on Barchart points to a weak-neutral short-term read, not yet oversold. |
| Volume | About 513,000 average shares | 20-day average volume was about 513,000 on StockAnalysis.com and 514,000 on Barchart, useful for checking whether any move is real. |
| Volatility | Event-sensitive biopharma volatility | 14-day historical volatility was near 24% and 50-day near 40% on Barchart, so earnings, reimbursement, regulatory, clinical, and product news can create price gaps. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $226 | A decisive close below the 200-day moving average near $226.22 would break the medium-term uptrend; a close below the 100-day near $238 weakens the short-term setup first. |
ASND AI trading strategy
The ASND AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It connects live technical confirmation with product revenue, new patient enrollments, reimbursement, regulatory decisions, operating cash flow, share count, and pipeline disclosures. Refresh all levels after the Q2 2026 report, expected around September 4, 2026.
Wait for ASND to reclaim the $250 to $262 zone covering the 5-day and 20-day moving averages on above-average volume before treating the July pullback as over. Pair the price confirmation with evidence that YORVIPATH reaccelerated in Q2 and that YUVIWEL enrollment is scaling.
Define position risk before entry. A failed reclaim or a close back below $236 is a rules-based invalidation condition for this framework.
If ASND falls toward the $224 to $228 zone around the 200-day moving average without a change in product or reimbursement fundamentals, wait for price stabilization and compare the move with the Q2 revenue and guidance update before acting.
Do not average down merely because the price falls. The setup breaks if the pullback coincides with weaker product demand, reimbursement pressure, a delayed EU decision, safety issues, or a materially changed outlook.
Track YORVIPATH sequential revenue and patient enrollments, YUVIWEL new patients, the operating cash flow guidance update after Q2, the EU decision expected in Q4 2026, reimbursement approval rates, share count and buybacks, and the post-conversion balance sheet.
Refresh scenarios after earnings, EU regulatory decisions, clinical updates, safety disclosures, reimbursement changes, financing, or repurchase announcements. Avoid stale technical levels after a high-impact event.
Investment research summary
Ascendis develops and commercializes once-weekly rare-disease therapies built on its TransCon platform, and customers and payers pay for differentiated treatments that reduce dosing burden and address unmet needs in hypoparathyroidism with YORVIPATH, achondroplasia with YUVIWEL, and growth hormone deficiency with SKYTROFA.
The moat combines approved products, orphan-drug protections such as YUVIWEL exclusivity through February 2033, clinical evidence, TransCon manufacturing and scientific know-how, prescriber relationships, reimbursement work, and a commercial footprint covering more than 70 countries. It can weaken if payers restrict access, competitors match clinical value, or execution slips.
The thesis fails if YORVIPATH growth slows after the Q1 one-time items, reimbursement or pricing pressure builds, SKYTROFA keeps declining, YUVIWEL adoption disappoints, the EU decision slips, IP litigation creates friction, the premium multiple compresses, or the rising share count dilutes per-share value.
Leadership has moved the company from development into multi-product commercialization, converted and redeemed the convertible notes, sold the priority review voucher for $187.5 million, and used repurchases. The key allocation question is whether incremental launch and pipeline investment produce durable cash returns.
Rare-disease endocrinology can support durable demand when an approved product shows clear benefit and payers accept the price, as YORVIPATH and the YUVIWEL launch illustrate. The same industry carries concentrated patient pools, regulator and payer power, high evidence requirements, and sharp event risk from trials, safety, and IP cases.
At a verified $16.08 billion market value and near 37x forward earnings, ASND prices in substantial commercial execution. Margin of safety depends on recurring operating cash flow, product diversification, and a holding multiple, not on the one-time deferred tax gain or a single near-term milestone.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASND price | $243.91 at the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $16.08 billion, verified as $243.91 x 65.92 million shares with 0.01% deviation | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| Share count | 65.92 million shares outstanding, up 5.21% year over year and 5.74% quarter over quarter, reflecting the May 2026 conversion of the $575 million convertible notes | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Ascendis Q1 2026 release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | EUR 246.60 million, up from EUR 100.95 million, including EUR 196.90 million from YORVIPATH and EUR 43.96 million from SKYTROFA, matching the 6-K with 0.00% deviation | Ascendis Q1 2026 earnings release and Form 6-K | May 7, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 profit | Operating profit EUR 25 million at a 10.1% margin; non-IFRS operating profit EUR 55 million at 22.4%; net profit EUR 629 million including a EUR 679 million deferred tax asset recognition; non-IFRS net profit EUR 18 million at EUR 0.27 diluted | Ascendis Q1 2026 earnings release and Form 6-K | May 7, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | EUR 720.13 million, up 98.0%, cross-validated across company filings and StockAnalysis with 0.00% deviation | Ascendis FY2025 results and StockAnalysis financials | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 net loss | EUR 228.03 million, cross-validated with StockAnalysis | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM financials | TTM revenue EUR 865.78 million up 134.8%, TTM net income EUR 495.93 million including the deferred tax gain, TTM EPS EUR 7.38 for the period ending March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and equity | Cash and cash equivalents EUR 573 million at March 31, 2026 versus EUR 616 million at December 31, 2025; total debt EUR 897 million; net debt EUR 324 million; total equity EUR 488 million after the deferred tax asset recognition | Ascendis Q1 2026 Form 6-K and StockAnalysis balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| Deferred tax assets | Recognized deferred tax assets of EUR 690.4 million as of March 31, 2026 with EUR 1,954.6 million of gross tax losses carried forward; recognition added EUR 679 million to Q1 net profit | Ascendis Q1 2026 Form 6-K | May 7, 2026 |
| Convertible notes redemption | On May 6, 2026, Ascendis redeemed all $575 million of its 2.25% convertible notes due 2028; holders converted into 3,635,813 ordinary shares, settling EUR 733 million of borrowings and derivative liabilities | Ascendis Q1 2026 earnings release | May 7, 2026 |
| Share repurchase program | A $120 million program was authorized on January 9, 2026; about $60 million was used in March 2026 for 254,027 shares at an average of $236.35, with about $60 million remaining at March 31, 2026 | Ascendis Q1 2026 Form 6-K | May 7, 2026 |
| Priority review voucher | Agreed to sell the rare pediatric disease priority review voucher for $187.5 million in cash, expected to close in the second quarter of 2026 | Ascendis Q1 2026 earnings release | May 7, 2026 |
| 2026 commercial objective | Management targets about EUR 500 million in operating cash flow for 2026, to be revisited after the Q2 report, and aspires to at least EUR 5 billion in annual product revenue by 2030 | Ascendis FY2025 and Q1 2026 earnings materials | May 7, 2026 |
| YORVIPATH uptake | More than 6,300 unique patients by more than 2,700 prescribers in the U.S. as of March 31, 2026, more than 1,000 new enrollments in Q1, March as the largest revenue month on record, and available in 35 countries outside the U.S. | Ascendis Q1 2026 earnings release and earnings call | May 7, 2026 |
| YUVIWEL launch | FDA accelerated approval in February 2026, U.S. launch in early April 2026, more than 60 patients by more than 35 prescribers by May 1, 2026, orphan drug exclusivity through February 2033, and an EU decision expected in Q4 2026 | Ascendis Q1 2026 earnings release and news feed | May 7, 2026 |
| SKYTROFA | Q1 2026 revenue of EUR 43.96 million with about 7% share of the U.S. growth hormone market; management expects stable full-year revenue following the 2025 seasonal pattern | Ascendis Q1 2026 earnings release and earnings call | May 7, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy from 18 analysts with an average 12-month target of $308.72, low $260.36, median $306.83, and high $357.77 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Recent analyst targets | Goldman Sachs $300 on July 27, Morgan Stanley $275 on July 23, Bank of America $306 on July 14, Wedbush $327 on July 9, and Barclays $345 on July 8, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and TipRanks | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 and FY2027 consensus | FY2026 revenue consensus of EUR 1.34 billion, up 86.5%, and FY2027 of EUR 1.97 billion, up 46.5%; consensus EPS of EUR 11.73 for FY2026 and EUR 9.29 for FY2027 in EUR-based figures that embed the deferred tax gain | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation check | Forward PE 36.95, trailing PE 26.33, PS 16.11, price to book 26.93, price to free cash flow 309.77, and EV to revenue 16.48, with trailing metrics distorted by the one-time tax gain and early profitability | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 20-day SMA near $259.92, 50-day SMA near $244.62, 100-day SMA near $238.18, 200-day SMA near $226.22, 14-day RSI near 40, 14-day ADX near 18, and 20-day average volume near 513,000 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 2, 2026 |
| Short interest | 3.10 million shares short, 5.61% of shares outstanding, and 3.36 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $203.80 to $282.15, with the July 31, 2026 close about 13.6% below the high | StockAnalysis.com quote | August 2, 2026 |
This ASND AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data and assumptions as of the stated cutoff date and can be wrong or become outdated after new earnings, regulatory decisions, clinical results, market moves, or financing events. Verify current filings, live market data, and your own risk limits before making financial decisions.
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