Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. research snapshot
AQN AI stock analysis currently reads Algonquin Power & Utilities as a regulated electric, natural gas, and water utility holding company that sold its renewable energy business and is pivoting to a pure-play regulated utility. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, AQN traded at $5.80 in real time with a market capitalization of about $4.50 billion, TTM revenue of $2.53 billion, and a Hold consensus rating from 12 analysts with an average price target of $6.75. The analysis is cautious because the stock trades below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, carries a heavy debt load with negative free cash flow, and pays out more than its GAAP earnings in dividends, so the investment case depends on rate case outcomes, interest costs, and debt reduction. This page uses scenario ranges, not a certain price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$5.80
Market cap
$4.50 billion verified, $4.46 billion recomputed
AI score
50 / 100
Rating
High-leverage regulated utility in transition, trading below book with a Hold analyst consensus
Trend status
Neutral to bearish, trading below the 200-day moving average near $6.14 and just below the 50-day average near $5.87, near the lower end of its 52-week range
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | AQN owns regulated electric, natural gas, and water distribution utilities across the United States, Canada, Bermuda, and Chile serving roughly 1.27 million customer connections. Business quality is anchored in essential services and rate-regulated returns, but returns are capped by regulators and the company still carries a transition-sized debt load. | Medium |
| Moat | The moat is regulatory and infrastructure based: franchise service territories, long-lived utility assets, and essential-service demand. It is narrower than large US utility peers because AQN operates across many smaller jurisdictions and serves fewer customers than national players. | Medium |
| Management | Management has executed the sale of the renewable energy business, won constructive rate case outcomes in Q1 2026, and refinanced roughly $1.15 billion of senior notes in May 2026, but must still prove that debt reduction, dividend coverage, and per-share earnings growth follow from the pure-play strategy. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue rose about 7.1% on a TTM basis to $2.53 billion and Q1 2026 revenue grew 14.4% year over year, but the balance sheet is strained: total debt of $6.72 billion, net cash of negative $6.66 billion, interest coverage near 1.8, and negative free cash flow of about $116 million in the last twelve months. | Medium |
| Valuation | At $5.80, AQN trades near 28x trailing EPS, about 15.9x forward EPS, 1.78x sales, about 0.9x book value, and a 4.49% dividend yield. The discount to book and the forward multiple leave room for a recovery, but the base case targets near the $6.75 consensus rather than a large re-rating. | Medium |
| Technical trend | Price sits just below the 50-day moving average near $5.87 and below the 200-day moving average near $6.14, with RSI near 46 and MACD roughly flat. Barchart scores the stock 96% sell and Intellectia rates the technical setup as strong sell, so momentum is weak without a clear reversal signal. | Medium |
| Risk level | Above-average risk. Key risks include high leverage with debt to equity near 1.33, negative free cash flow, a dividend payout ratio above 100% of GAAP earnings, multi-jurisdictional rate case outcomes, rising interest costs, potential dilutive equity offerings, and the execution risk of the pure-play utility strategy. | Medium |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts, audited calculations, and technical levels. Lower for forward EPS estimates and the timing of any dividend or leverage resolution. | Medium-high data |
| Investment certainty | Low-to-medium. AQN has a stable regulated asset base and trades at a discount to book with a 4.49% dividend yield, but high leverage, negative free cash flow, and transition execution risk limit conviction. | Low-medium |
AQN AI stock forecast
The AQN AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $5.80 real-time quote at the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The audited three-year framework, run with TTM EPS near $0.21 and forward EPS estimates near $0.35, points to a bearish area near $4.00 to $5.20, a base area near $6.00 to $6.80 in line with the $6.75 analyst consensus target, and a bullish area near $7.50 to $8.50. These are scenario ranges, not guaranteed targets.
$7.50 to $8.50
More likely if rate case approvals keep adding retroactive and prospective revenue, refinancing meaningfully cuts interest costs, leverage falls faster than expected, EPS recovers toward $0.40, interest rates decline, and the market re-rates the stock toward a more typical utility multiple of 20x or more forward earnings.
$6.00 to $6.80
More likely if AQN executes the pure-play transition in line with plan, forward EPS builds toward roughly $0.35, the dividend stays at $0.26, debt declines gradually, rate outcomes are mixed but constructive, and the stock trades near the average analyst target of $6.75.
$4.00 to $5.20
More likely if interest costs stay elevated, rate case returns disappoint, free cash flow stays negative, the company cuts the dividend or issues dilutive equity, Q2 2026 results due August 7 miss expectations, or the pure-play strategy fails to restore per-share earnings growth.
AQN AI technical analysis
AQN AI technical analysis is weak as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. AQN traded at $5.80 in real time with a prior close of $5.84 on July 31, sitting just below the 50-day moving average of $5.87 and below the 200-day moving average of $6.14. StockAnalysis shows RSI near 45.8, Barchart rates the stock 96% sell, and Intellectia lists immediate support near $5.73 and resistance near $6.18.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $5.80 | Real-time quote at the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, with a prior close of $5.84 on July 31, 2026. |
| Near support | $5.73 to $5.79 | Intellectia lists first classic support near $5.729 and Barchart lists first support near $5.79, an area that has held the recent pullback. |
| Structural support | $5.51 to $5.65 | Intellectia lists second support near $5.51 and Barchart lists third support near $5.65; a close below this zone would turn the picture bearish. |
| Critical support (52-week low area) | $5.32 | The 52-week low is $5.32. Below that, the historical low area near $4.19 from January 2025 is the next major reference. |
| Near resistance | $5.93 to $6.18 | Barchart lists resistance near $5.93 and Intellectia lists first classic resistance near $6.18. A break above $6.18 could signal a more durable recovery. |
| Key resistance | $6.41 | Intellectia lists second classic resistance near $6.41, which aligns with the upper end of recent trading before the stock pushed higher in July. |
| 50-day moving average | $5.87 | StockAnalysis shows the 50-day moving average near $5.87, and price is just below it, so reclaiming this level matters for short-term trend quality. |
| 200-day moving average | $6.14 | StockAnalysis shows the 200-day moving average near $6.14, and price is below it, a long-term bearish signal for the trend. |
| Momentum | RSI near 45.8, MACD roughly flat | StockAnalysis lists RSI at 45.75 in neutral territory, and Intellectia lists MACD near 0.04, so momentum is soft but not deeply oversold. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 3.45 million shares | StockAnalysis lists 20-day average volume near 3.45 million shares and Barchart lists it near 3.79 million, modest for a utility this size. |
| Volatility | Below-market beta of 0.90 | Beta is near 0.90 over five years and the 52-week range is $5.32 to $7.11, so the stock is calmer than the broad market but still swings on dividend and earnings news. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $5.32 | A decisive close below the $5.32 52-week low would target the historical low area near $4.19 and deeper support. |
AQN AI trading strategy
The AQN AI trading strategy is a rules-based monitoring framework for a leveraged utility in transition. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with live price data, Q2 2026 results on August 7, debt reduction progress, rate case outcomes, and defined invalidation levels.
Watch for AQN to reclaim the 50-day moving average near $5.87 and then the 200-day moving average near $6.14 on above-average volume. Confirmation should include progress on debt reduction, constructive rate outcomes, a stable dividend, and a declining interest cost outlook.
A failed rally that reverses below $5.73 should reduce confidence. A close below $5.32 suggests the downtrend is resuming.
If AQN revisits the $5.32 to $5.65 support zone without a negative fundamental catalyst, compare the dividend yield near 4.5%, book value, dividend coverage, debt reduction timeline, and utility sector valuation before assuming support will hold.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule. A leveraged utility can stay depressed for extended periods if dividend coverage, interest rates, or regulatory returns do not improve.
Track Q2 2026 results due August 7, dividend coverage and any payout policy change, rate case outcomes in key jurisdictions, net debt to EBITDA, interest expense trends, free cash flow, and any equity issuance announcements.
Reduce confidence if the dividend is cut, leverage rises further, free cash flow stays negative, the company announces dilutive equity, or rate cases produce returns below authorized levels.
Investment research summary
Algonquin Power & Utilities is paid to deliver regulated electricity, natural gas, and water services to roughly 1.27 million customer connections across the United States, Canada, Bermuda, and Chile. Customers pay because access to these utility services is essential, and rates are set through regulated proceedings rather than the open market.
AQN has a regulatory and asset-based moat from franchise service territories, utility infrastructure, and essential-service demand. The moat is narrower than large US utility peers because AQN operates across many smaller jurisdictions and serves fewer customers.
The thesis fails if the pure-play utility strategy does not restore earnings growth, interest costs stay high and pressure coverage, regulators deny adequate returns, leverage stays elevated, free cash flow remains negative, the dividend is cut, or the company issues dilutive equity to repair the balance sheet.
Management should be judged by debt reduction, dividend coverage, rate case outcomes, refinancing execution, and whether the transition to a pure-play utility creates per-share value or simply simplifies the corporate structure.
AQN operates in the long-duration regulated utility sector with steady demand and tailwinds from electrification, but faces higher interest costs, inflation in construction costs, and the challenge of earning authorized returns while funding a large capital program.
At roughly 28x trailing EPS, 15.9x forward EPS, about 0.9x book value, and a 4.49% dividend yield, AQN trades at a discount to book and below the average analyst target of $6.75. Margin of safety comes mainly from book value support and the dividend, but earnings growth and dividend coverage are needed to justify the current price.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| AQN price | $5.80 real-time at the August 3, 2026 cutoff, with a prior close of $5.84 on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $4.50 billion, verified as $5.80 x 769.65 million shares with 0.80% variance | StockAnalysis and financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 769.65 million shares, up 2.89% year over year, with a float of 630.55 million | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | Revenue of $792.4 million, up 14.4% year over year, GAAP EPS of $0.11, and adjusted EPS of $0.13 | Nasdaq RTTNews Q1 2026 earnings report | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 earnings date | Second quarter 2026 results scheduled for Friday, August 7, 2026 | Business Wire press release | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | Revenue of $2.53 billion, up 7.1%, with net income of $159.70 million and EPS of $0.21 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 annual results | Revenue of $2.43 billion, up 4.92%, with net income of $170.3 million versus a $1.39 billion net loss in FY2024 | StockAnalysis financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Balance sheet and leverage | Total debt of $6.72 billion, net cash of negative $6.66 billion or negative $8.66 per share, debt to equity of 1.33, debt to EBITDA of 7.25, and interest coverage of 1.81 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Free cash flow | Operating cash flow of $562.40 million and capital expenditures of $678.30 million, giving free cash flow of negative $115.90 million in the last twelve months | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 28.17x PE (TTM), 15.92x forward PE, 1.78x PS, 0.89x PB, and 12.62x EV/EBITDA from StockAnalysis, with 27.62x PE, 0.96x PB, and 4.48% dividend yield recomputed by financial_rigor.py | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | Annual dividend of $0.26 per share for a 4.49% yield, with a payout ratio of 125.10% and an ex-dividend date of June 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold from 12 analysts with an average price target of $6.75 and a range of $6.00 to $7.25, with recent CIBC, RBC, BMO, and Wells Fargo targets between $6.25 and $7.00 | StockAnalysis forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day moving average $5.87, 200-day moving average $6.14, RSI 45.75, beta 0.90, 52-week range $5.32 to $7.11, and 20-day average volume near 3.45 million shares | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical levels | Support near $5.73 and $5.51, resistance near $6.18 and $6.41, 20-day moving average $5.835, 60-day moving average $5.888, 200-day moving average $6.138, RSI 47.775, and MACD 0.0355 | Intellectia AQN technical page | August 3, 2026 |
| Barchart technical opinion | 96% Sell with all short, medium, and long term moving average signals in sell territory, support at $5.79, $5.75, and $5.65, and resistance at $5.93, $6.03, and $6.07 | Barchart AQN opinion page | August 3, 2026 |
This AQN AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong if earnings, regulation, interest rates, debt markets, dividend policy, the utility transition execution, or investor sentiment changes.
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