AppFolio, Inc. research snapshot
APPF AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads AppFolio as a profitable cloud property management SaaS platform that crossed $1 billion in trailing twelve month revenue for the first time in Q2 2026. The stock opened at $188.44 on August 3, up 4.58% from the $180.19 close on July 31, and carries a market capitalization near $6.67 billion, computed as $188.44 times 35.42 million shares and cross-validated across StockAnalysis.com, Barchart, and the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q cover, which lists 24,087,367 Class A shares and 11,329,625 Class B shares outstanding as of July 16, 2026. The Q2 2026 report, released July 23, 2026, delivered revenue of $281 million up 19% year over year, GAAP operating income of $53 million or 18.8% of revenue, non-GAAP operating income of $76 million or 27.1% of revenue, and operating cash flow of $88 million or 31.2% of revenue, while units on platform grew 8% to 9.6 million and customers grew 6% to 22,751. Management raised full year 2026 revenue guidance to $1.117 billion to $1.127 billion and lifted non-GAAP operating margin guidance to 26.5% to 28.0%. The stock had fallen from a 52-week high of $326.04 to a low of $142.56, then rebounded about 32% off that low, and it now trades near the 200-day moving average of roughly $191.54 on Barchart and $191.74 on StockAnalysis.com. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$188.44 at the August 3, 2026 market open, up 4.58% from the $180.19 July 31 close
Market cap
$6.67 billion
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Strong Buy consensus with recovery momentum at a demanding valuation
Trend status
Rebounding from a deep pullback toward the 200-day moving average, still down 19% year to date
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | AppFolio sells a cloud SaaS platform that property managers use for accounting, leasing, marketing, maintenance, workflow automation, and resident communication, with value-added payments, screening, and risk mitigation services. Revenue reached $281 million in Q2 2026 up 19%, and trailing twelve month revenue crossed $1 billion for the first time. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Moderate moat from switching costs, system consolidation, and growing AI integration. Property managers run daily operations on the platform and migrate away from multiple disconnected systems, and Realm-X Flows, Performers, and the Claude connector create workflow lock-in, though Yardi and RealPage remain large competitors. | Medium |
| Management | CEO and Chairman Shane Trigg leads with a Real Estate Performance Management strategy, and CFO Tim Eaton manages margins and capital allocation. Q1 2026 repurchases of 702,502 shares at an average near $177.95 show shareholder alignment, and the $300 million 2025 buyback program still had $125 million left at June 30, 2026. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue grew from $359 million in 2021 to $951 million in 2025 and $1.04 billion on a trailing twelve month basis. Q2 2026 delivered GAAP operating income of $53 million or 18.8% of revenue and non-GAAP operating income of $76 million or 27.1%, with operating cash flow of $88 million and free cash flow near $270 million trailing. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At 42.71x trailing PE, 24.35x forward PE, 6.13x sales, and 23.63x trailing free cash flow, the stock is priced for continued growth. The multiple leaves limited safety margin if SaaS valuations contract or growth slows. | Medium-low |
| Technical trend | APPF opened at $188.44 on August 3, 2026, up 4.58% from the $180.19 July 31 close, and it has rebounded about 32% from the 52-week low of $142.56. The stock is still below its 200-day moving average near $191.54 and down 19% year to date, so the trend is improving but not yet confirmed as a full reversal. | Medium |
| Risk level | The thesis can fail if premium tier adoption stalls, Yardi and RealPage compete harder on AI, the housing market downturn reduces landlord technology spending, interest income declines as the cash balance is spent, or the stock stays below the 200-day moving average and resumes the downtrend. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High data confidence for the descriptive business mapping and financial verification that cross-validated across StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR XBRL, the earnings release, the 10-Q, and the call transcript. Lower confidence for forward return estimates because the competitive and housing backdrop is uncertain. | Medium |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty because the page gives a framework, not a personalized buy or sell instruction, and the stock is a premium multiple business below its long-term moving average. | Medium-low |
APPF AI stock forecast
The APPF AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $188.44 August 3, 2026 market open and the non-GAAP FY2026 EPS consensus of $6.90. The three-scenario framework produced a bearish area near $123, a base area near $219, and a bullish area near $310 over three years, using non-GAAP EPS growth of 6%, 13%, and 20% and exit multiples of 15x, 22x, and 26x. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
$260 to $310
More likely if revenue growth holds near 18% plus, premium tier adoption keeps climbing, Realm-X AI performers and the Claude connector drive deeper platform use, and the stock re-establishes a sustained uptrend above the 200-day moving average with volume.
$190 to $230
More likely if AppFolio executes steadily with high single digit to low double digit EPS growth, keeps the 26.5% to 28.0% margin guidance on track, and investors hold the stock near a 20x to 24x forward multiple in line with the $225.11 analyst average target.
$105 to $145
More likely if growth decelerates below the low teens, competition from Yardi or RealPage intensifies, the housing market downturn cuts landlord spending, interest income drops, or the software multiple compresses toward the 15x area.
APPF AI technical analysis
APPF AI technical analysis is improving but not confirmed as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The stock opened at $188.44, up 4.58% from the $180.19 July 31 close, above its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages of roughly $181.93, $175.71, $166.96, and $164.07 on Barchart, but still below the 200-day moving average near $191.54. The stock rebounded about 32% from the 52-week low of $142.56, while the 14-day RSI sits near 61.7 on Barchart and 56.9 on StockAnalysis.com, strong but not overbought.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $188.44 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the August 3, 2026 market open; market cap math uses 35.42 million shares outstanding. |
| 5-day moving average | $181.93 | Barchart reported the 5-day moving average near $181.93 on August 3, 2026, below the opening price, which signals short-term momentum is accelerating. |
| Near support | $175 to $177 | Barchart placed the 20-day moving average near $175.71 as of August 3, 2026, a natural first pullback support zone. |
| Next support | $164 to $167 | Barchart reported the 50-day moving average near $166.96 and the 100-day near $164.07, while StockAnalysis.com reported the 50-day near $166.46, forming a support cluster below the current price. |
| Near resistance | $191 to $200 | The 200-day moving average near $191.54 on Barchart and $191.74 on StockAnalysis.com is the first overhead zone, followed by the round $200 level. |
| 200-day moving average | $191.54 | Barchart reported the 200-day trend line near $191.54 on August 3, 2026, above the current price; StockAnalysis.com reported near $191.74. |
| 52-week high and low | $326.04 high / $142.56 low | The 52-week range of $142.56 to $326.04 shows a large swing, with the stock rebounding about 32% from the low but still far below the high. |
| Momentum | RSI near 57 to 62 | 14-day RSI was near 61.72 on Barchart and 56.92 on StockAnalysis.com, elevated but not overbought, with the 14-day ADX near 14.4 on Barchart indicating a trend that is still building rather than established. |
| Volume | About 390,000 to 406,000 average shares | Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 387,872 shares and StockAnalysis.com near 405,697 on August 3, 2026, moderate liquidity for a mid-cap stock. |
| Volatility | Elevated | Barchart reported 14-day historic volatility near 57.26%, so position sizing should account for large swings, and the stock still trades about 30% below the trailing 52-week high. |
| Invalidation | Close below $175 | A decisive close below the 20-day moving average near $175.71 would weaken the recovery; a close below the 50-day near $166.96 would signal the rebound failed. |
APPF AI trading strategy
The APPF AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for trading and watching the recovery. It is not personal advice and should be paired with fresh chart data, filings, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch for APPF to hold above its 5-day average near $181.93 and to reclaim the 200-day moving average near $191.54 with above-average volume. A confirmed move through $200 with sustained buying would signal a stronger trend reversal from the downtrend.
A daily close below the 20-day moving average near $175.71 or a failed attempt at the 200-day level should trigger a stop and review.
If APPF pulls back toward the $164 to $177 support cluster without new fundamental damage, compare the price reaction with Q3 results, premium tier adoption, and unit growth data before acting.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule because competition and housing market headlines can turn a support zone into a value trap.
Track the evidence that matters most for AppFolio: revenue growth, premium tier adoption as a share of units, non-GAAP operating margin, Realm-X and performer adoption, units under management, customer counts, competitive moves from Yardi and RealPage, and housing market trends.
Reduce confidence if price moves are driven by AI hype or rate headlines without matching revenue and margin evidence.
Investment research summary
AppFolio sells a cloud SaaS platform that property managers use to run their rental operations, including accounting, leasing, maintenance, marketing, workflow automation, and resident communication, plus value-added payments, screening, and risk mitigation services.
The moat is built from switching costs and system consolidation. Property managers replace multiple disconnected tools with one platform, and Realm-X Flows, Performers, and the Claude connector deepen workflow lock-in. Yardi and RealPage remain large, well funded competitors.
The thesis can fail if premium tier adoption plateaus, Yardi or RealPage launch competitive AI features that erode differentiation, the housing market downturn reduces landlord technology spending, or the valuation multiple contracts before the growth can justify it.
Chairman and CEO Shane Trigg drives the Real Estate Performance Management strategy, with CFO Tim Eaton managing margin expansion and disciplined capital allocation. The Q1 2026 repurchase of 702,502 shares at an average near $177.95 aligns management with shareholders, and $125 million remained under the 2025 program at June 30, 2026.
Property management software adoption is a steady secular trend driven by digitization of real estate operations, and AI workflow automation across leasing, accounting, maintenance, and resident communication provides a new growth vector within the existing TAM.
At 42.71x trailing PE, 24.35x forward PE, and 23.63x trailing free cash flow, the stock prices in continued SaaS growth and margin expansion. The safety margin is modest if growth decelerates or SaaS multiples contract toward historical averages.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| APPF price | $188.44 at the August 3, 2026 market open, up 4.58% from the $180.19 July 31 close | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $6.67 billion, computed as $188.44 x 35.42 million shares outstanding and reported by StockAnalysis.com, verified via financial_rigor.py at 0.07% deviation | StockAnalysis.com quote and share statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 35.42 million shares per StockAnalysis.com; the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q cover lists 24,087,367 Class A shares and 11,329,625 Class B shares outstanding as of July 16, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and AppFolio Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | Revenue of $281 million up 19% year over year, GAAP operating income of $53 million or 18.8% of revenue, non-GAAP operating income of $76 million or 27.1% of revenue | AppFolio Q2 2026 earnings release and Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | July 23, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 segment revenue | Subscription services of $59.8 million up 14%, value-added services of $219.5 million up 22%, and other revenue of $1.9 million | AppFolio Q2 2026 earnings release and Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | July 23, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 EPS and cash flow | Net income of $41.5 million with diluted EPS of $1.17, operating cash flow of $88 million or 31.2% of revenue, compared to $53 million or 22.3% of revenue in Q2 2025 | AppFolio Q2 2026 earnings release and Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | July 23, 2026 |
| First-half 2026 results | Revenue of $543.3 million up 19.9%, net income of $84.0 million with diluted EPS of $2.36, and operating cash flow of $121.9 million | AppFolio Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | July 23, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance | Full year revenue guidance raised to $1.117 billion to $1.127 billion and non-GAAP operating margin guidance raised to 26.5% to 28.0%, with diluted weighted average shares of approximately 36 million | AppFolio Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call | July 23, 2026 |
| Platform scale | Approximately 9.6 million units under management, up 8% year over year, and 22,751 customers, up 6%, with premium tier adoption expanded from about one in four units to nearly one in three | AppFolio Q2 2026 earnings call | July 23, 2026 |
| Cash and investments | Cash and cash equivalents of $217.4 million, current investment securities of $4.3 million, and long-term investments of $87.7 million as of June 30, 2026 | AppFolio Q2 2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Debt position | Total debt of about $30.7 million to $35.8 million with no material long-term borrowing, giving a net cash position near $186 million to $191 million | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Share repurchase | Q1 2026 repurchase of 702,502 Class A shares at an average of $177.95 per share for $125.0 million under the 2025 Stock Repurchase Program, which remains authorized up to $300 million with $125 million remaining as of June 30, 2026 | AppFolio Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Revenue trend | FY2025 revenue of $950.82 million up 19.72%, FY2024 revenue of $794.20 million up 28.01%, FY2023 revenue of $620.45 million up 31.48%, and trailing twelve month revenue of $1.04 billion up 20.66% | StockAnalysis.com financials and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 3, 2026 |
| Profitability trend | FY2025 net income of $140.92 million after FY2024 net income of $204.07 million, which included one-time items, with trailing twelve month net income of $157.53 million and trailing EPS of $4.39 | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Free cash flow | Operating cash flow of $272.9 million and free cash flow of $270.02 million over the trailing twelve months, with an FCF margin near 25.94% | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Margins | Gross margin of 63.53%, operating margin of 17.52%, and net profit margin of 15.13% over the trailing twelve months | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 42.71x trailing PE, 24.35x forward PE, 6.13x sales, 12.13x book value, 23.63x free cash flow, PEG 1.80, EV/EBITDA 30.54, EV/FCF 22.95 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Three-scenario valuation input | Non-GAAP FY2026 EPS consensus of $6.90. Bull: 20% growth, 26x PE = $310. Base: 13% growth, 22x PE = $219. Bear: 6% growth, 15x PE = $123. | financial_rigor.py three-scenario calculation and StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy with an average target of $225.11 across 10 analysts, low $185 and high $260, median $226 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | July 27, 2026 |
| Recent analyst actions | D.A. Davidson $225 on July 27, KBW $233 on July 27, J.P. Morgan $260 on July 24, Benchmark $222 to $226 on July 24, Piper Sandler $210 on July 24, and Guggenheim initiated with Buy and $232 on July 23 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 27, 2026 |
| Short interest | 2.71 million shares short, 7.66% of shares outstanding, 11.78% of float, 7.35 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range and performance | 52-week range $142.56 to $326.04, down 30.48% over the trailing 52 weeks and down 19.12% year to date, beta 0.79 | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA near $181.93, 20-day SMA near $175.71, 50-day SMA near $166.96, 100-day SMA near $164.07, 200-day SMA near $191.54, 14-day RSI near 61.72, 14-day ADX near 14.37, 14-day historic volatility near 57.26% | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
| Company profile | Founded 2006 and headquartered in Santa Barbara, California, listed on NASDAQ in June 2015, with 1,732 employees as of June 30, 2026, CEO and Chairman Shane Trigg, and CFO Timothy Mathias Eaton | StockAnalysis.com company profile and AppFolio Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | July 30, 2026 |
This APPF AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of August 3, 2026, may be incomplete, and can be wrong if new filings, market prices, company events, competition, or macro conditions change.
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