The Andersons, Inc. research snapshot
ANDE AI stock analysis reads The Andersons as a diversified agribusiness and renewables company with improving earnings momentum but structural commodity risk. The stock closed near $68.40 on June 30, 2026, for a market value of about $2.33 billion. TTM revenue reached $10.98 billion, but GAAP net income was only $128.62 million, translating to a thin 1.17% profit margin and EPS of $3.75. The Renewables segment has benefited from strong ethanol margins and renewable feedstock trading, while the Agribusiness segment provides stable grain merchandising and plant nutrient volume. The main caution in any ANDE AI stock forecast is that commodity prices, ethanol policy changes, customer concentration, elevated debt, and negative free cash flow can offset earnings improvements. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$68.40 close on June 30, 2026
Market cap
$2.33 billion calculated from $68.40 x 34.054 million shares, matching the current market data range
AI score
48 / 100
Rating
Diversified agribusiness and renewable fuels company with improving ethanol earnings, but thin GAAP margins, commodity-driven revenue, elevated debt, negative free cash flow, and limited analyst coverage
Trend status
Price is above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after a strong year-to-date rally, but is trading below January 2026 highs near $82
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 13, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Diversified agribusiness and renewable fuels model with real market positions in grain, plant nutrients, ethanol, and railcar leasing, but GAAP profit margins are thin and commodity-driven. | Medium |
| Moat | Scale in grain handling, plant nutrient formulation, railcar fleet, and ethanol production creates moderate barriers, but products are largely commodity-priced and competition from farm co-ops and other ethanol producers is intense. | Low-medium |
| Management | CEO Patrick Bowe and the leadership team have invested in ethanol, rail, and renewable feedstocks while the company exited retail and simplified its portfolio. The capital allocation test is whether earnings and free cash flow can support the debt load. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue declined from $14.75 billion in 2023 to $11.26 billion in 2024. Net income improved from $101 million in 2023 to $171 million in 2024 and TTM net income reached $129 million, but free cash flow was negative TTM. | High |
| Valuation | At about 18.2x TTM P/E and 0.21x price-to-sales, the stock looks moderately valued on earnings but cheap on revenue. The elevated debt-to-equity ratio near 100% means leverage is a key risk factor. | High |
| Technical trend | Price is above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after rallying about 87% over the past year. The year-to-date gain is about 29%, though the stock remains below its 52-week high of $82.11. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high due to commodity price exposure, ethanol policy risk, customer concentration in grain and nutrients, elevated debt, negative free cash flow, and limited analyst coverage for a small-cap stock. | High |
| AI confidence | The AI research has good factual support for reported data, but future price and earnings outcomes are highly sensitive to commodity prices, ethanol margins, debt cost, and operating leverage. | Medium |
| Investment certainty | Low-medium certainty. An improving earnings trend exists, but thin margins, commodity exposure, negative free cash flow, and elevated debt make this a moderate-conviction setup rather than a high-certainty compounder. | Low-medium |
ANDE AI stock forecast
The ANDE AI stock forecast uses three-year scenario ranges instead of a single target price. The model starts with TTM EPS of $3.75 and applies 20%, 10%, and negative 15% annual growth assumptions with 20x, 15x, and 10x exit PE multiples. The resulting center values are about $130, $75, and $23. These are assumption outputs, not reliable predictions. The bullish case needs ethanol margins to stay supportive, renewable feedstock trading to grow, grain volumes to remain stable, and debt to decline. The base case assumes moderate earnings growth with continued commodity volatility and debt service costs. The bearish case assumes weaker ethanol margins, lower grain volumes, higher interest costs, or a downward valuation re-rating.
$100 to $160 over three years
More likely if ethanol margins remain strong, renewable feedstock trading expands, grain and plant nutrient volumes hold up, the railcar leasing business contributes steady earnings, debt is reduced, and free cash flow turns positive.
$55 to $95 over three years
More likely if commodity markets are mixed, ethanol margins normalize from peak levels, grain volumes remain stable, debt stays elevated, and free cash flow remains inconsistent.
$15 to $40 over three years
More likely if ethanol margins compress sharply, grain volumes decline, higher interest costs pressure earnings, a commodity down-cycle reduces revenue, or leverage concerns cause a valuation de-rating.
ANDE AI technical analysis
ANDE AI technical analysis uses the June 30, 2026 close and public technical data checked through July 13. The stock is above its key moving averages after a strong rally but is below the $82.11 52-week high. Recent levels are approximate planning zones, not live trading signals. Confirm them on a current chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $68.40 | Latest verified close on June 30, 2026, with about 259,000 shares traded on that day. |
| Near support | $62 to $65 | The May 2026 low area. A sustained break below $62 would weaken the near-term bullish structure. |
| Secondary support | $55 to $58 | The April 2026 consolidation zone. This level sits near the 200-day moving average and would be a key test in a broader pullback. |
| Near resistance | $72 to $75 | The $72 area was tested in June 2026. The January 2026 high near $82.11 is the next major resistance level above that. |
| 50-day moving average | Approximately $64 | Estimated based on the rally from the May 2026 low. The stock is currently above this level, which is a positive near-term signal. |
| 200-day moving average | Approximately $57 | The long-term trend support. A sustained close below this level would challenge the bullish technical thesis. |
| Momentum | RSI around 55 | Estimated near-neutral based on the pullback from the June highs. Not in overbought or oversold territory. |
| Volume | 259,000 on June 30 versus 327,000 20-day average | Volume has been slightly below average recently, which can indicate a pause in the trend. |
| Volatility | 5-year beta about 0.65 | Low beta indicates the stock tends to move less than the broad market. Risk controls should still account for commodity-driven gap risk. |
| Invalidation | Close below $57 | A decisive close below the estimated 200-day moving average near $57 would challenge the long-term technical thesis. The $62 level is a first warning point. |
ANDE AI trading strategy
The ANDE AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It connects price action with ethanol margin data, grain volumes, plant nutrient results, railcar leasing revenue, debt levels, free cash flow, and commodity price trends.
Wait for ANDE to reclaim the $72 to $75 zone with above-average volume while ethanol margins and segment earnings support the move.
A failed reclaim, a close below $62, weaker ethanol margins, or rising debt levels should reduce confidence in the trend setup.
If the $62 to $65 zone holds without a new fundamental negative, compare support with the 200-day average, volume patterns, upcoming earnings (August 3, 2026), and the valuation implied by TTM earnings.
Do not treat a pullback to support as proof of value. Define a loss limit before entry and avoid averaging down through a commodity or debt thesis break.
Track quarterly segment revenue by agribusiness and renewables, ethanol margins, grain volumes, plant nutrient volumes, railcar utilization, operating cash flow, free cash flow, debt levels, and interest coverage.
Lower confidence if ethanol margins compress, grain volumes decline, debt rises faster than EBITDA, or free cash flow stays negative for multiple quarters.
Investment research summary
Customers pay The Andersons for grain handling, plant nutrient formulation, ethanol production, renewable feedstock trading, and railcar leasing services. The economic test is whether these diversified but commodity-linked businesses can generate consistent returns above the cost of capital.
The moat is moderate and based on physical scale: grain elevators, plant nutrient blending facilities, ethanol plants, and a railcar fleet create meaningful infrastructure barriers. However, most products face commodity pricing pressure from farm co-ops, Archer-Daniels-Midland, Bunge, Cargill, and other ethanol producers like Green Plains and POET.
The thesis fails if ethanol margins compress from current strong levels, grain volumes decline due to weather or farmer retention, plant nutrient margins get squeezed, higher interest costs pressure earnings, free cash flow stays negative requiring debt or equity action, or the company cannot generate adequate returns on its asset base. The sharpest risk is that thin GAAP margins amplify any earnings decline.
CEO Patrick E. Bowe has led the portfolio simplification including the 2017 retail exit and increased focus on agribusiness and renewables. The capital allocation question is whether investments in ethanol capacity, renewable feedstocks, and the railcar fleet create durable cash returns after debt service and capital spending.
Ethanol benefits from federal renewable fuel standards and growing demand for low-carbon biofuels, while grain and plant nutrients follow agricultural commodity cycles. The long-term trend toward renewable feedstocks and biofuels is favorable, but the industry remains commodity-cyclical and policy-dependent.
At $68.40, ANDE trades near 18.2x TTM P/E and 0.21x revenue with a 1.2% dividend yield. The low revenue multiple reflects thin profit margins, while the P/E is moderate for a cyclical agribusiness. Leverage near 100% debt-to-equity means the balance sheet does not by itself provide a margin of safety.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ANDE price | $68.40 close on June 30, 2026 | Yahoo Finance historical data | July 13, 2026 |
| Market capitalization and shares | $2.33 billion from $68.40 x 34.054 million shares; the calculation matched the reported market cap range | Barchart, Yahoo Finance, and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 13, 2026 |
| FY2024 financial results | $11.259 billion revenue, $190.31 million operating income, $170.70 million net income | SEC FY2024 10-K and Wikipedia | July 13, 2026 |
| TTM financial snapshot | TTM revenue $10.98 billion, TTM net income $128.62 million, TTM EPS $3.75, profit margin 1.17% | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 13, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and leverage | $72.4 million cash, total debt/equity approximately 99.94%, and enterprise value $3.23 billion | Yahoo Finance and Barchart key statistics | July 13, 2026 |
| Business segments | Operates through Agribusiness (grain merchandising, plant nutrients, logistics) and Renewables (ethanol, renewable feedstocks, co-products) | SEC filings and company description | July 13, 2026 |
| Dividend and shareholder returns | Annual dividend of $0.80 per share ($0.20 quarterly), yielding about 1.17%, with a 18.4% payout ratio | Barchart dividend data | July 13, 2026 |
| Valuation metrics | P/E (TTM) 18.24x, P/S 0.21x, P/B 1.85x, BVPS $36.92, beta 0.65 | Yahoo Finance, Barchart, and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 13, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day moving average approximately $64, 200-day moving average approximately $57, 52-week range $31.84 to $82.11, beta 0.65 | Yahoo Finance technical data | July 13, 2026 |
| Analyst coverage | Argus has a Hold rating with a target near $74, Texas Capital recently initiated with a Buy. 1-year analyst target estimate is $80.00 | Yahoo Finance analysis page and recent news | July 13, 2026 |
This ANDE AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 13, 2026 and can be wrong if The Andersons execution, commodity prices, ethanol margins, grain volumes, plant nutrient demand, interest costs, debt levels, free cash flow, competition, regulation, or market valuation changes.
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