The Andersons, Inc. research snapshot
ANDE AI stock analysis reads The Andersons as a diversified agribusiness and renewables company with sharply improved earnings momentum but persistent commodity risk. The stock closed at $69.86 on August 3, 2026, for a market value of roughly $2.4 billion. Second quarter 2026 results, released the same day, showed revenue of $3.1 billion, GAAP net income of $56.6 million, and EPS of $1.65, with adjusted EPS of $2.15. Management reaffirmed a path to $7 in EPS exiting 2028, supported by strong ethanol margins, higher RIN values from the finalized Renewable Volume Obligation, record ethanol exports, and 45Z tax credits. The main caution in any ANDE AI stock forecast is that the company still earns thin GAAP margins on large commodity-linked revenue, trailing free cash flow has been negative, and earnings can swing sharply with ethanol crush margins and grain markets. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$69.86 close on August 3, 2026
Market cap
About $2.4 billion at the August 3, 2026 close; 34.054 million shares at $69.86 gives $2.38 billion, within 1.3% of Barchart reported $2.41 billion
AI score
55 / 100
Rating
Diversified agribusiness and renewables company with sharply improved H1 2026 earnings from strong ethanol margins, a unanimous Strong Buy analyst consensus, but thin GAAP margins, negative trailing free cash flow, and high earnings volatility
Trend status
Price is below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages after a pullback from the $82.11 May high, but remains above the 200-day moving average near $64, keeping the longer-term uptrend intact
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Diversified agribusiness covering grain handling (Trade), ethanol and co-products (Renewables), plant nutrients, and rail assets. H1 2026 net income of about $90 million already approaches full-year 2025 profit, but GAAP margins remain thin and earnings are volatile. | Medium |
| Moat | Physical scale in grain elevators, ethanol plants, the Houston export terminal, and a railcar fleet creates real barriers, but most products are commodity-priced and the ethanol industry is competitive. | Low-medium |
| Management | CEO William E. Krueger set a $7 EPS target exiting 2028, keeps long-term debt near 1.6x EBITDA against a 2.5x limit, and is funding the Houston export terminal and Clymers debottlenecking projects. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue was $11.01 billion in 2025 with net income of $95.7 million. H1 2026 net income reached about $90 million on stronger ethanol margins, and TTM EPS is about $4.24. | High |
| Valuation | About 16.5x TTM P/E, 0.22x price-to-sales, and a 1.15% dividend yield at $69.86. The multiple is moderate for a cyclical with rising earnings, and long-term debt is manageable relative to EBITDA. | High |
| Technical trend | Price is below the 20-day ($74.30) and 50-day ($72.22) moving averages after a 15% pullback from the May high, but above the 200-day average ($64.13). RSI near 41 is neutral. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is high because commodity price swings, ethanol policy shifts (RVO and 45Z), customer concentration, negative trailing free cash flow, and execution risk on growth projects can all hit earnings at once. | High |
| AI confidence | Reported data is well supported across sources, but future earnings and price outcomes depend on ethanol margins, grain volumes, and policy, which the AI cannot predict. | Medium |
| Investment certainty | Low-medium certainty. Momentum is strong, but high earnings volatility and thin margins limit certainty. This is a moderate-conviction cyclical setup, not a stable compounder. | Low-medium |
ANDE AI stock forecast
The ANDE AI stock forecast uses three-year scenario ranges instead of a single target price. The model starts with TTM EPS of $4.24 and applies 20%, 10%, and negative 10% annual growth assumptions with 20x, 15x, and 10x exit PE multiples. The resulting center values are about $147, $85, and $31. Management internal target of $7 in EPS exiting 2028 would need roughly 19% annualized growth from current TTM EPS. These are assumption outputs, not reliable predictions. The bullish case needs ethanol margins and RIN values to stay supportive, 45Z credits to continue, grain volumes to grow, and free cash flow to turn positive. The base case assumes moderate growth with continued commodity and policy noise. The bearish case assumes ethanol margins compress, policy support fades, grain volumes decline, or a valuation de-rating.
$110 to $180 over three years
More likely if ethanol margins hold near current levels, RIN and RVO tailwinds continue, 45Z credits stay material, Houston export volumes ramp, grain volumes grow, free cash flow turns positive, and the company stays on track toward the $7 EPS target.
$60 to $105 over three years
More likely if ethanol margins normalize, grain volumes are mixed, policy support is steady but not increasing, and the company executes its capital projects with moderate growth.
$15 to $45 over three years
More likely if ethanol crush margins compress sharply, RVO or 45Z support weakens, grain volumes decline, interest or debt costs rise, free cash flow stays negative, or a commodity down-cycle forces a valuation de-rating.
ANDE AI technical analysis
ANDE AI technical analysis uses the August 3, 2026 close of $69.86 and public technical data checked on August 4, 2026. The stock is below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages but above the 200-day average, after a 15% pullback from the $82.11 May high. Levels are approximate planning zones, not live trading signals. Confirm them on a current chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $69.86 | Latest verified close on August 3, 2026, after second quarter results were released after the market close. |
| Near support | $66.70 to $68.80 | Barchart turning-point levels. A decisive close below $66.70 would open a test of the 200-day average. |
| Secondary support | $62.90 to $64.13 | The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the 200-day moving average. This is the main long-term trend test. |
| Near resistance | $70.95 to $73.05 | Barchart resistance cluster. Above that, the 20-day moving average near $74.30 is the next hurdle. |
| Major resistance | $82.11 | The May 5, 2026 52-week high. A break above it would signal resumption of the longer-term uptrend. |
| 50-day moving average | About $72.22 | The stock is trading below this level, which points to a short-term downtrend after the pullback. |
| 200-day moving average | About $64.13 | The long-term trend support. Price is above it, which keeps the primary uptrend intact. |
| Momentum | RSI near 41 | Fourteen-day relative strength near 41 is neutral to slightly weak, after short-term readings near 36. |
| Volume | About 225,000 on July 24 versus a 334,000 average | Recent volume is below average, consistent with a pause after the rally and pullback. |
| Volatility | 14-day ATR about $2.64 | Average daily range near 3.8% of price. Beta near 0.65, but ethanol and grain price gaps can still hit the stock. |
| Invalidation | Close below $64.13 | A decisive close below the 200-day moving average near $64 would weaken the long-term bullish structure. The $66.70 level is a first warning. |
ANDE AI trading strategy
The ANDE AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It links price action with quarterly segment results, ethanol crush margins, RIN and 45Z policy, grain volumes, plant nutrient demand, rail utilization, debt, and free cash flow.
Wait for ANDE to reclaim the $70.95 to $73.05 resistance zone on above-average volume while ethanol margins and segment earnings support the move. A confirmed break above $82.11 would mark resumption of the longer-term uptrend.
A failed reclaim, a close below $66.70, weaker ethanol margins, falling RIN values, or rising debt should reduce confidence in the trend setup.
If the $66.70 to $68.80 zone holds without a new fundamental negative, compare it with the 200-day average near $64, volume patterns, upcoming quarterly reports, and the valuation implied by TTM earnings.
Do not treat a pullback to support as proof of value. Set a loss limit before entry and avoid averaging down through a commodity or policy thesis break.
Track quarterly segment EBITDA for Trade, Renewables, and Plant Nutrient, ethanol crush margins, RIN values, 45Z credits, grain volumes, Houston export volumes, rail utilization, long-term debt to EBITDA, and free cash flow.
Lower confidence if ethanol margins compress, policy support fades, free cash flow stays negative for multiple quarters, or long-term debt moves above the 2.5x EBITDA target.
Investment research summary
Customers pay The Andersons for grain handling and merchandising, ethanol production and trading, plant nutrient formulation, and rail and logistics services. The economic test is whether these commodity-linked businesses can generate steady returns above the cost of capital across a full cycle.
The moat is moderate and based on physical scale: grain elevators, ethanol plants, the Houston export terminal, and a railcar fleet. Products face commodity pricing pressure from farm co-ops, Bunge, Archer-Daniels-Midland, Cargill, and ethanol peers such as POET and Green Plains.
The thesis fails if ethanol crush margins compress, RVO or 45Z policy support weakens, grain volumes decline, free cash flow stays negative and forces more debt, or growth projects run late and over budget. The sharpest risk is that thin GAAP margins amplify any earnings reversal.
President and CEO William E. Krueger reaffirmed a $7 EPS target exiting 2028, keeps long-term debt around 1.6x EBITDA against a 2.5x limit, and is prioritizing the Houston export terminal, Clymers debottlenecking, and low-carbon feedstock growth without paying up for 45Z value in M&A.
Ethanol demand benefits from the finalized Renewable Volume Obligation, higher RIN values, record export years in 2024 and 2025, and low-carbon feedstock demand, while grain and plant nutrients follow agricultural cycles. The long-term biofuel trend is favorable but policy-dependent and cyclical.
At $69.86, ANDE trades near 16.5x TTM P/E, 0.22x price-to-sales, and a 1.15% dividend yield. The low revenue multiple reflects thin margins, while the earnings multiple is moderate for a cyclical with rising profit. Long-term debt near 1.6x EBITDA provides some room, but the balance sheet alone is not a deep margin of safety.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ANDE price | $69.86 close on August 3, 2026 | Yahoo Finance and Barchart market data | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization and shares | About $2.4 billion; 34.054 million shares at $69.86 gives $2.38 billion, within 1.3% of Barchart reported $2.41 billion | Barchart and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | Revenue $3.1 billion, GAAP net income $56.6 million, GAAP EPS $1.65, adjusted EPS $2.15, reported August 3, 2026 | AP earnings snapshot via Barchart | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2025 results | Revenue $11.01 billion, net income $95.7 million, GAAP EPS $2.79; Q4 2025 GAAP EPS $1.97 | AP earnings snapshot via Barchart | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM financial snapshot | TTM EPS about $4.24, TTM P/E about 16.5x, price-to-sales 0.22x, ROE near 11.3% | Barchart fundamentals and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 4, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and leverage | Long-term debt to EBITDA near 1.6x against a target below 2.5x; total debt to equity near 100% and cash about $72 million in Q1 2026 filings | Barchart research and Yahoo Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Dividend and shareholder returns | Annual dividend of $0.80 per share ($0.20 quarterly), yielding about 1.15% | Barchart dividend data | August 4, 2026 |
| Business segments | Trade (grain merchandising and handling), Renewables (ethanol and co-products), Plant Nutrient (fertilizer), and Rail (locomotive and railcar services) | SEC filings and company descriptions | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day moving average about $72.22, 200-day about $64.13, 52-week range $31.84 to $82.11, 14-day RSI near 41, beta 0.65 | Barchart technical data | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst coverage | Four analysts with Strong Buy ratings, mean target $88.75, range $75 to $110; Q2 2026 consensus estimate was $1.45 versus actual GAAP EPS of $1.65 | Barchart research | August 4, 2026 |
| Management target and capital plan | $7 EPS target exiting 2028; about $225 million in full-year 2026 capital spending excluding acquisitions | Barchart research and MarketBeat | August 4, 2026 |
This ANDE AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 4, 2026 and can be wrong if The Andersons execution, ethanol margins, RIN values, 45Z or RVO policy, grain volumes, plant nutrient demand, interest costs, debt, free cash flow, competition, or market valuation changes.
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