Bullish case
$320 to $340
More likely if Q2 and second-half sales remain up high single digits, organic orders keep growing, acquisitions add margin-accretive growth, and the market still values AME near 32x forward earnings.
AMETEK, Inc. research snapshot
AME AI Stock Analysis
AME AI stock analysis currently reads AMETEK as a high-quality industrial technology compounder with strong segment margins, a record Q1 2026, record backlog, disciplined acquisitions, and durable cash generation. At the July 8, 2026 data cutoff, AME traded near $231.70 with a verified market capitalization near $53.25 billion. The main offset is valuation risk: the stock already reflects a strong AMETEK Growth Model story, so this page uses scenario ranges and source checks, not a certain stock price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$231.70
Market cap
$53.25 billion
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
High-quality industrial compounder, valuation discipline required
Trend status
Uptrend near June 2026 highs, but short-term pullback risk after a strong first-half move
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- A-level information richness. AMETEK has long public filings, current quarterly releases, segment tables, share count disclosures, multiple market data sources, and broad industrial analyst coverage.
- bias Check
- The main AI bias risk is accepting the quality industrial compounder narrative without enough reverse checking. The countercase asks whether premium valuation, acquisition integration, tariff costs, cyclical orders, and goodwill-heavy balance sheet risk can narrow the margin of safety.
- ai Confidence
- High for FY2025 filings, Q1 2026 results, segment revenue, share count, cash and debt, market cap math, and guidance. Medium for technical levels and forecast ranges because price, earnings revisions, and industrial order momentum can change quickly.
- investment Certainty
- Medium. The business quality is high and disclosure is strong, but investment certainty is below data confidence because the current quote already prices in continued execution and premium returns on capital.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | AMETEK sells precision instruments, electronic instruments, sensors, test systems, motors, motion control, and engineered components into industrial, aerospace, defense, medical, energy, and automation niches. | High |
| Moat | Moat comes from niche leadership, application know-how, engineered products, switching friction in validated systems, decentralized operating discipline, and acquisition sourcing, but no single product monopoly protects the whole company. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO David Zapico has extended the AMETEK Growth Model through Operational Excellence, acquisitions, global expansion, and new products, while continuing dividends and buybacks. | High |
| Financial trend | FY2025 sales rose 6.6% to $7.401 billion and Q1 2026 sales rose 11% to $1.928 billion, with adjusted operating margin near 27.9% and adjusted EPS guidance lifted to $7.94 to $8.14. | High |
| Valuation | At $231.70, AME traded near 35.0x trailing EPS, 28.8x the $8.04 midpoint of 2026 adjusted EPS guidance, and about 32.0x FY2025 free cash flow per share. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | Technical snapshots were constructive but less clean after the July pullback, with price below the recent $244.71 high, near the 200-day area, and mixed short-term moving-average signals. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks include industrial cycle slowdown, acquisition mispricing, integration costs, tariffs, aerospace and defense order timing, China and Europe demand, goodwill impairment, and multiple compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and audited calculations, medium for forward scenarios and chart levels. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The page frames scenarios and monitoring rules, not a buy or sell instruction. | Medium |
AME AI stock forecast
AME AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The AME AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $231.70 quote and AMETEKs raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint of $8.04. The audited three-year framework produced a bearish area near $177, a base area near $268, and a bullish area near $333 before dividends.
Base case
$255 to $275
More likely if AMETEK compounds EPS around mid single digits, keeps adjusted margins high, uses free cash flow for selective acquisitions and buybacks, and investors value the company near 28x earnings.
Bearish case
$170 to $185
More likely if industrial orders slow, tariffs and integration costs pressure margins, acquisitions fail to earn premium returns, or the stock is repriced closer to 22x earnings.
AME AI technical analysis
AME AI Technical Analysis
AME AI technical analysis is constructive but not low-risk as of the July 8, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $231.70 on July 7 after reaching a 52-week high of $244.71 on June 25, while Investing.com and StockInvest snapshots placed moving-average support near the low $230 area and short-term resistance near $238.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $231.70 | MarketWatch reported AME closed at $231.70 on July 7, 2026, about 5.3% below its June 25 high. |
| Near support | $230 to $231 | Investing.com listed 50-day and 200-day moving averages in the $225 to $230 area, while StockInvest cited long-term average support near $230.31. |
| Deeper support | $225 to $226 | Investing.com listed a 5-day average near $226.19 and 50-day average near $225.27, making this a lower pullback zone if the July weakness extends. |
| Near resistance | $237 to $238 | StockInvest cited short-term moving-average resistance near $238.15 after the pullback from early July highs. |
| Upper resistance | $244.71 | MarketWatch listed $244.71 as the 52-week high reached on June 25, 2026. |
| Momentum | RSI neutral to positive | Investing.com snapshots listed 14-day RSI around the neutral zone, while prior technical pages showed stronger readings during the June rally. |
| Volume | Average volume near 1.3 million shares | MarketWatch reported July 7 volume of 1.1 million shares, below the 50-day average near 1.3 million. |
| Volatility | About 5% below 52-week high | The short distance from the June high means upside follow-through needs confirmation instead of assuming a clean breakout. |
| Invalidation | Close below $225 | A decisive close below the moving-average cluster would weaken the current trend setup and raise the risk of multiple compression. |
AME AI trading strategy
AME AI Trading Strategy Framework
The AME AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for monitoring a premium industrial compounder near its highs. It is not personal advice and should be paired with fresh chart data, filings, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
Trend-following setup
Watch for AME to hold the $225 to $231 support zone, then reclaim $238 on volume above average. A move through $244.71 would need confirmation from Q2 results, order growth, and guidance quality.
A close below $225 or a failed breakout after the next earnings update should invalidate the near-term trend setup.
Mean-reversion setup
If AME pulls back toward the low $220s without a negative guidance reset, compare price action with backlog, acquisition contribution, segment margins, and cash conversion before treating the pullback as normal.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule because high-quality industrials can still re-rate sharply when orders or margins slow.
Fundamental monitor
Track organic sales, order growth, record backlog conversion, EIG and EMG margins, free cash flow, acquisition spending, net debt, tariffs, R&D investment, and buyback timing.
Reduce confidence if EPS growth depends mainly on multiple expansion, tax effects, or acquisition accounting while organic orders and cash conversion weaken.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
AMETEK helps industrial and technical customers measure, test, automate, control, and move critical systems. Customers pay because precision, reliability, compliance, and application support are costly to replace once embedded.
Moat
The moat is a portfolio moat rather than one single fortress. Niche leadership, installed equipment, engineered specifications, decentralized execution, scale in procurement, and acquisition discipline create switching friction and margin resilience.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis fails if AMETEK overpays for acquisitions, organic orders roll over, tariff costs outrun pricing, high goodwill reduces flexibility, or investors stop paying a premium multiple for steady execution.
Management
Management should be judged by acquisition returns, integration discipline, segment margin quality, R&D productivity, global expansion, buyback timing, and whether capital allocation protects per-share value over a full industrial cycle.
Industry trend
AMETEK sits inside long-duration demand for automation, aerospace, defense electronics, test and measurement, medical devices, energy infrastructure, and precision manufacturing, but end markets remain cyclical.
Valuation and margin of safety
At roughly 28.8x the 2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint, AME requires continued high-quality execution. Margin of safety improves if price revisits support while orders, backlog, margins, and free cash flow remain intact.
Source-backed data
AME Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| AME price | $231.70 close on July 7, 2026 | MarketWatch daily market data story | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $53.25 billion, verified as $231.70 x 229.835 million diluted shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 229.203 million common shares outstanding at April 24, 2026 | AMETEK Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 sales | $1.928 billion, up 11% year over year | AMETEK Q1 2026 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 segment sales | Electronic Instruments $1.265 billion and Electromechanical $663.9 million | AMETEK Q1 2026 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $7.401 billion, cross-checked against StockAnalysis and Macrotrends | AMETEK 2025 Form 10-K | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $1.480 billion, cross-checked against StockAnalysis | AMETEK 2025 Form 10-K | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $481.25 million cash, $2.178 billion total debt net of current and long-term debt at March 31, 2026 | AMETEK Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 8, 2026 |
| 2026 adjusted EPS guidance | $7.94 to $8.14 after Q1 guidance raise | AMETEK Q1 2026 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| CEO alignment | 2026 proxy listed CEO David Zapico with 579,197 beneficial shares and directors and executive officers as a group below 1% beneficial ownership | AMETEK 2026 proxy statement | July 8, 2026 |
| Three-scenario valuation | financial_rigor.py output: bullish $333, base $268, bearish $177 using $8.04 EPS midpoint | financial_rigor.py three-scenario calculation | July 8, 2026 |
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This AME AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 8, 2026 and can be wrong if AMETEKs fundamentals, market price, rates, or investor sentiment change.