Allegion plc research snapshot
ALLE AI stock analysis now reads Allegion plc as a higher quality access security franchise with improving momentum after a Q2 2026 beat, raised full-year guidance, and a price that has reclaimed its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, offset by a richer valuation and a still soft International segment. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, ALLE traded near $157.40 with an implied market capitalization of about $13.38 billion. Q2 2026 revenue rose 12.7% on a reported basis and 6.9% organically, adjusted EPS rose 17.6% to $2.40, and the company lifted its 2026 adjusted EPS outlook to $8.85 to $9.00. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$157.40
Market cap
$13.38 billion
AI score
74 / 100
Rating
Quality access security franchise with improving momentum and a richer valuation
Trend status
Short-term uptrend above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Allegion sells mechanical and electronic security products, access control, locks, door controls, exit devices, doors, software, and services for homes, institutions, and commercial buildings across two segments. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from Schlage, Von Duprin, LCN, CISA, Interflex, and SimonsVoss brands, installer and distributor relationships, codes and specifications, broad SKUs, durable installed bases, and growing electronics and software capabilities. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO John H. Stone is balancing organic growth, acquisitions such as DCI, dividends, buybacks, and productivity while managing the International ERP recovery. The Q2 beat and raised outlook support execution credibility. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 revenue rose 12.7% reported and 6.9% organic, adjusted EPS rose 17.6% to $2.40, and adjusted operating margin improved to 24.2%. Full-year adjusted EPS guidance was raised to $8.85 to $9.00. | High |
| Valuation | At $157.40, verified valuation math implies about 20.66x TTM EPS, 19.95x free cash flow, 6.32x book value, and a 1.40% dividend yield. The stock is no longer priced as a value play. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The price is above both the 50-day moving average of $137.43 and the 200-day moving average of $152.02, with RSI near 70. Momentum is constructive but the stock is close to short-term overbought. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are construction-cycle weakness, International demand softness, residential volume swings, ERP recovery drag, DCI integration, tariffs, channel destocking, and valuation multiple compression after the run. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for current market data, Q2 2026 results, FY2025 results, cash, debt, share count, valuation math, and technical snapshots; medium for forward margin recovery and technical follow-through. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium. ALLE is a better-than-average industrial business, but after the recent rally the margin of safety is thinner and depends on guidance holding and International execution improving. | Medium |
ALLE AI stock forecast
The ALLE AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $157.40 quote and the raised 2026 adjusted EPS midpoint of about $8.93. The audited three-year framework produced a bearish area near $98, a base area near $155, and a bullish area near $202, using EPS growth of 0%, 5%, and 8% and exit multiples of 11x, 15x, and 18x. These are scenario ranges, not price promises.
$195 to $215
More likely if Americas organic growth stays near its Q2 pace, adjusted EPS compounds around 8% for three years, International margins keep recovering from the ERP disruption, and investors hold the stock near an 18x exit multiple.
$150 to $165
More likely if organic growth settles into the mid single digits, adjusted EPS grows at a low to mid single digit rate, and the market values ALLE near 15x forward normalized earnings.
$90 to $105
More likely if International demand keeps falling, construction or residential volumes weaken, acquisition or ERP issues drag margins, or the market applies a lower multiple near 11x to reduced earnings power.
ALLE AI technical analysis
ALLE AI technical analysis turns constructive as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed near $157.40 on July 31, 2026, above both its 50-day moving average of $137.43 and its 200-day moving average of $152.02, with 14-day RSI near 70, beta of 0.84, and a 52-week high of $183.11 overhead. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, all levels should be confirmed in a live charting tool before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $157.40 | Latest verified market snapshot used for this page, reported by StockAnalysis on the July 31, 2026 close. |
| Near support | $150 to $152 | The 200-day moving average of $152.02 and the round-number zone form the first pullback support. |
| Next support | $137 to $140 | The 50-day moving average of $137.43 is the next meaningful demand zone below the 200-day. |
| Near resistance | $164 to $170 | The post-Q2 analyst target cluster from BofA, JPMorgan, Baird, and Goldman sits in this zone. |
| 50-day moving average | $137.43 | Price well above this level supports the short-term recovery trend. |
| 200-day moving average | $152.02 | Price above this level is a medium-term positive after the stock reclaimed it in late July. |
| Momentum | RSI 69.85 | Momentum is strong but approaching overbought, which can raise the odds of a near-term pause. |
| Volume | About 1.43 million average volume | A push toward the $183.11 high should be confirmed by volume above the recent average. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.84 | ALLE has traded with lower-than-market beta, but earnings and construction data can still create sharp moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $152.02 | A decisive close below the 200-day moving average would weaken the recovery; a close below the 50-day would turn it bearish. |
ALLE AI trading strategy
The ALLE AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It should be paired with live chart data, position sizing, stop rules, and fresh checks on earnings, guidance, cash flow, and construction demand.
Watch for ALLE to hold above the 200-day moving average near $152 and to build volume on a push toward the $164 to $170 resistance zone and the $183.11 high, with the 50-day and 200-day averages still rising.
A daily close below the 200-day moving average or a failed push at resistance should trigger a review and a defined stop.
If ALLE pulls back toward $150 to $152 without a guidance cut, compare the price action with cash flow, backlog, residential volume, International demand, and margin comments before treating the move as a reset.
Do not average down if margin compression broadens, organic growth falls below guidance, International demand keeps declining, or debt rises without clear acquisition payback.
Track organic revenue growth, Americas non-residential demand, International demand and ERP recovery, adjusted operating margin, available cash flow, net debt, buybacks, dividend coverage, and DCI integration.
Reduce confidence when price strength is not backed by margin recovery, cash generation, or better International demand evidence.
Investment research summary
Allegion is paid because buildings need trusted physical and electronic access control. Customers pay for security, life-safety compliance, reliability, brand trust, installer familiarity, and increasingly connected access workflows.
The moat is based on brands such as Schlage, Von Duprin, LCN, CISA, Interflex, and SimonsVoss, plus specification habits, distribution, installed base, product breadth, code knowledge, and electronics know-how.
The thesis can fail if construction demand weakens, International demand keeps falling, residential replacement slows, electronics growth fails to offset mechanical pressure, acquisitions dilute returns, ERP issues persist, or investors stop paying a premium multiple.
Management raised full-year 2026 guidance after a Q2 beat, kept buying back stock, and is working through DCI integration and the International ERP recovery. The next proof point is disciplined capital allocation after a period of higher goodwill and debt.
Security around doors benefits from safety codes, institutional spending, multifamily access needs, data center and campus security, and electronic access adoption. The trend is useful, but not immune to construction cycles.
The verified three-scenario model produced about $202 in the bull case, $155 in the base case, and $98 in the bear case using the raised 2026 adjusted EPS midpoint. At $157.40, the stock is near the base case, so the margin of safety is thinner than it was before the rally.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ALLE price | $157.40 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis quote page | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $13.38 billion, verified as $157.40 x 85.04 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 85.04 million | StockAnalysis quote page | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue | $1,151.5 million, up 12.7% reported and 6.9% organic | Allegion Q2 2026 results release | July 23, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted EPS | $2.40, up 17.6%, versus $2.04 in the prior-year quarter | Allegion Q2 2026 results release | July 23, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted operating margin | 24.2%, versus 23.7% in the prior-year quarter | Allegion Q2 2026 results release | July 23, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 cash and debt | $320.6 million cash and $2,031.1 million total debt | Allegion Q2 2026 results release | July 23, 2026 |
| 2026 adjusted EPS outlook | Raised to $8.85 to $9.00, with average diluted shares near 85.9 million | Allegion Q2 2026 results release | July 23, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $4.067 billion, cross-validated against Allegion and StockAnalysis | Allegion FY2025 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 20.66x TTM EPS, 19.95x FCF, 6.32x book value, 1.40% dividend yield | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $173.00 across 11 analysts, ranging from $142 to $200 | StockAnalysis forecast page | July 29, 2026 |
| Technical reference levels | 50-day average $137.43, 200-day average $152.02, RSI 69.85, beta 0.84 | StockAnalysis statistics page | August 2, 2026 |
This ALLE AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool. It is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold Allegion plc. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and can be wrong if earnings, rates, demand, valuation multiples, or company-specific risks change.
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