Bullish case
$205 to $220
More likely if adjusted EPS compounds near 7 percent for three years, investors keep a premium industrial multiple near 20x, available cash flow stays near guidance, and ALLE reclaims the $154 to $165 resistance zone.
Allegion plc research snapshot
ALLE AI Stock Analysis
ALLE AI stock analysis currently reads Allegion plc as a high-quality security and access solutions company with strong brands, recurring replacement demand, and solid cash conversion, but not a risk-free compounder. At the July 8, 2026 cutoff, the latest verified market snapshot showed ALLE at $139.80, market capitalization near $12.01 billion, FY2025 revenue of $4.07 billion, FY2025 net earnings of $643.8 million, and Q1 2026 revenue up 9.7 percent while margins compressed. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$139.80
Market cap
$12.01 billion
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
Durable access security compounder with margin pressure and construction-cycle risk
Trend status
Recovering above the 50-day average but still below the 200-day average
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- A-level information richness. Allegion has long public trading history, SEC filings, annual reports, current earnings releases, third-party financial data, analyst coverage, and liquid NYSE market data.
- bias Check
- The main AI bias risk is mistaking a strong brand and cash flow record for an automatic margin of safety. This analysis separates durable access-control demand from construction cycles, residential volume pressure, acquisition integration, ERP disruption, leverage, and valuation sensitivity.
- ai Confidence
- High data confidence
- investment Certainty
- Medium. The reported financial data is strong and well sourced, but investment certainty is lower because the stock depends on non-residential demand, residential repair and remodel trends, acquisition execution, margin recovery, and the multiple investors assign to a mature industrial franchise.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Allegion sells mechanical and electronic security products, access control, locks, door controls, exit devices, doors, software, and services for homes, institutions, and commercial buildings. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from Schlage and other trusted brands, installer and distributor relationships, codes and specifications, broad SKUs, durable installed bases, and growing electronics and software capabilities. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO John H. Stone is balancing organic growth, acquisitions, dividends, buybacks, and productivity. The key test is whether DCI integration and International ERP recovery can protect margins. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 7.8 percent to $4.07 billion, net earnings rose to $643.8 million, and available cash flow reached $685.7 million. Q1 2026 revenue rose 9.7 percent but adjusted operating margin fell to 21.2 percent. | High |
| Valuation | At $139.80, verified valuation math implies about 19.10x TTM EPS, 17.72x free cash flow, 5.72x book value, and a 1.57 percent dividend yield. The stock is not priced as distressed. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The price is above the 50-day moving average of $133.67 but below the 200-day moving average of $154.86. Momentum is constructive but not fully repaired. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are construction-cycle weakness, residential volume pressure, margin compression, acquisition integration, ERP disruption, input costs, channel destocking, and valuation multiple compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for current market data, FY2025 results, Q1 2026 results, cash, debt, share count, and valuation math; medium for forward margin recovery and technical follow-through. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium. ALLE has a better-than-average industrial business, but the margin of safety depends on paying a fair multiple and seeing margins recover after Q1 pressure. | Medium |
ALLE AI stock forecast
ALLE AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The ALLE AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges rather than a single price promise. The bullish case needs 2026 adjusted EPS near management guidance, continued Americas non-residential strength, DCI contribution, and a recovery above the 200-day moving average. The bearish case becomes more likely if margin pressure persists, International ERP recovery disappoints, or the stock loses the 50-day moving average.
Base case
$150 to $165
More likely if organic growth stays in the 2 percent to 4 percent range, adjusted EPS grows at a mid-single-digit pace, and the market values ALLE near 16x forward normalized earnings.
Bearish case
$95 to $105
More likely if residential volumes weaken, non-residential demand slows, acquisition or ERP issues drag margins, or the market applies a lower multiple near 12x to reduced earnings power.
ALLE AI technical analysis
ALLE AI Technical Analysis
ALLE AI technical analysis starts from the $139.80 StockAnalysis market snapshot on July 7, 2026. StockAnalysis reported a $139.25 to $141.02 daily range, a $125.00 to $183.11 52-week range, a 50-day moving average of $133.67, a 200-day moving average of $154.86, RSI of 58.71, beta of 0.86, and 20-day average volume of 1.24 million shares. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, all levels should be confirmed in a live charting tool before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $139.80 | Latest verified market snapshot used for this page, reported by StockAnalysis on July 7, 2026. |
| Near support | $133.67 to $139.25 | The 50-day moving average and July 7 intraday low form the first risk zone. |
| Near resistance | $154.86 to $165.18 | The 200-day moving average and analyst target area are the next upside tests. |
| 50-day moving average | $133.67 | Price above this level supports a short-term recovery attempt. |
| 200-day moving average | $154.86 | Price below this level keeps the medium-term trend from being fully repaired. |
| Momentum | RSI 58.71 | Momentum is positive but not overbought at the verified snapshot. |
| Volume | 1.24 million average volume | A breakout above the 200-day average should be confirmed by volume above the recent average. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.86 | ALLE has traded with lower-than-market beta, but earnings and construction data can still create sharp moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $133.67 | A decisive close below the 50-day moving average would weaken the recovery setup. |
ALLE AI trading strategy
ALLE AI Trading Strategy Framework
The ALLE AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It should be paired with live chart data, position sizing, stop rules, and fresh checks on earnings, guidance, cash flow, and construction demand.
Trend-following setup
Wait for ALLE to hold above the 50-day moving average and reclaim the 200-day moving average near $154.86. Confirm with Q2 commentary on Americas non-residential demand, DCI integration, International ERP recovery, and adjusted EPS guidance.
A failed reclaim of the 200-day average or a close below $133.67 should invalidate the setup.
Mean-reversion setup
If ALLE pulls back toward $133.67 to $139.25 without a guidance cut, compare the price action with cash flow, backlog, residential volume, and margin comments before treating the move as a reset.
Do not average down if margin compression broadens, organic growth falls below guidance, or debt rises without clear acquisition payback.
Fundamental monitor
Track organic revenue growth, Americas non-residential demand, residential volume, International ERP recovery, adjusted operating margin, available cash flow, net debt, buybacks, and dividend coverage.
Reduce confidence when price strength is not backed by margin recovery, cash generation, or better demand evidence.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
Allegion is paid because buildings need trusted physical and electronic access control. Customers pay for security, life-safety compliance, reliability, brand trust, installer familiarity, and increasingly connected access workflows.
Moat
The moat is based on brands such as Schlage, Von Duprin, LCN, CISA, Interflex, and SimonsVoss, plus specification habits, distribution, installed base, product breadth, code knowledge, and electronics know-how.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis can fail if construction demand weakens, residential replacement slows, electronics growth fails to offset mechanical pressure, acquisitions dilute returns, ERP issues persist, or investors stop paying a premium multiple.
Management
Management has returned cash through dividends and buybacks while adding acquisitions such as DCI. The next proof point is disciplined capital allocation after a period of higher goodwill and debt.
Industry trend
Security around doors benefits from safety codes, institutional spending, multifamily access needs, data center and campus security, and electronic access adoption. The trend is useful, but not immune to construction cycles.
Valuation and margin of safety
The verified three-scenario model produced about $215.60 in the bull case, $158.40 in the base case, and $99.40 in the bear case using the 2026 adjusted EPS midpoint. At $139.80, margin of safety is reasonable only if guidance and cash conversion hold.
Source-backed data
ALLE Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ALLE price | $139.80 market snapshot on July 7, 2026 | StockAnalysis quote page | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $12.01 billion, verified as $139.80 x 85.94 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 85.94 million | StockAnalysis quote page | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $4.067 billion, cross-validated against Allegion, StockAnalysis, and Macrotrends | Allegion FY2025 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 net earnings | $643.8 million, cross-validated against Allegion, StockAnalysis, and Macrotrends | Allegion FY2025 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 available cash flow | $685.7 million, up 17.6 percent year over year | Allegion FY2025 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $1.034 billion, up 9.7 percent reported and 2.6 percent organic | Allegion Q1 2026 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 cash and debt | $308.9 million cash and $2.031 billion total debt | Allegion Q1 2026 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| 2026 adjusted EPS outlook | $8.70 to $8.90, with average diluted share count near 86.6 million | Allegion Q1 2026 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 19.10x TTM EPS, 17.72x FCF, 5.72x book value, 1.57 percent dividend yield | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical reference levels | 50-day average $133.67, 200-day average $154.86, RSI 58.71 | StockAnalysis statistics page | July 8, 2026 |
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This ALLE AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool. It is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold Allegion plc. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and can be wrong if earnings, rates, demand, valuation multiples, or company-specific risks change.