Assurant, Inc. 5.25% Subordinated Notes due 2061 research snapshot
AIZN AI stock analysis covers Assurant, Inc. 5.25% subordinated notes due January 15, 2061, not Assurant common stock (AIZ). At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, the latest available close was $18.83 on July 9, 2026. The notes were issued in $25 denominations with $250 million original aggregate principal, pay $1.3125 of interest per year ($0.328125 quarterly), and were already callable at par on or after January 15, 2026. At $18.83 the simple current yield is about 6.97%, a discount of about 24.7% to par. The relevant analysis is Assurant credit quality, interest-rate levels, call optionality, interest-deferral rights, subordination, and trading liquidity, not a common-stock earnings multiple. This AIZN AI stock forecast uses scenarios rather than a precise price promise and is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$18.83 close on July 9, 2026
Market cap
About $188.3 million estimated market value of the $250 million original principal at $18.83
AI score
62 / 100
Rating
Fixed-coupon subordinated income note with issuer-credit, call, and deferral risk
Trend status
Trading well below $25 par near the 52-week low band, with thin daily volume
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | AIZN is a debt claim on Assurant, a specialty insurer and protection-services platform for devices, autos, housing, renters, and commercial equipment. Noteholders rely on issuer cash flow and capital access, not common-equity ownership rights. | High |
| Moat | The issuer benefits from partner integrations, claims and servicing scale, program data, regulatory licenses, and long client relationships. Those features support credit quality but do not remove catastrophe, client-concentration, or leverage risk. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Keith Demmings has emphasized Global Lifestyle growth, Housing profitability, liquidity, buybacks, and dividends. For AIZN holders, the decisive tests are holding-company liquidity, debt service, interest payment continuity, and whether a par call is attractive versus leaving the notes outstanding. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Assurant reported Q1 2026 revenue of $3.42 billion and net income of $274.1 million. Yahoo Finance showed about $13.16 billion TTM revenue and $19.52 TTM EPS for AIZ near the cutoff, supporting issuer cash generation while catastrophe losses remain a swing factor. | High |
| Valuation | AIZN should be assessed by current yield, discount to $25 par, call risk, subordination, and Assurant credit. At $18.83 the notes yield about 6.97% on the fixed $1.3125 annual coupon. A common-stock PE, EPS growth model, or AIZ market capitalization is not a valuation metric for the note. | High |
| Technical trend | AIZN closed at $18.83 on July 9, 2026, inside a 52-week range of $18.52 to $21.97 and near the low end of that band. Volume was about 15.3K versus roughly 14.0K average, so chart signals need live confirmation. | Medium-low |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because AIZN is unsecured and subordinated, matures in 2061, can be redeemed at par, allows interest deferral for up to five years, and can trade thinly when rates or insurance credit spreads move. | High |
| AI confidence | Research confidence is high for disclosed terms and issuer data, but medium for quote discovery, technical indicators, and any yield-to-call path that needs live price, accrued interest, and call timing assumptions. | Medium |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is low to medium because long duration, call optionality, deferral rights, and specialty-insurance credit outcomes can outweigh the current coupon. | Low-medium |
AIZN AI stock forecast
The AIZN AI stock forecast is a rate and credit scenario range for a fixed-coupon subordinated note, not an equity price target. At the $18.83 reference close, the note traded about 24.7% below its $25 par value with an approximate 6.97% current yield. Price behavior will depend on market yields, Assurant credit quality, whether management redeems at par, interest-deferral risk, and quoted liquidity. Equity-style EPS and three-scenario PE valuation are not applicable to this debt security; the ranges below are informational yield and discount scenarios only.
$22.50 to $25.00
More likely if market yields fall, Assurant credit evidence stays solid, investors reprice the discount toward lower required yields near 5.5% to 6.0%, and the market either anticipates a constructive hold-to-call path or a gradual recovery toward par.
$18.50 to $21.00
More likely if the notes continue to trade as a discounted fixed-coupon income instrument with roughly mid-6% to high-6% current yields, Assurant keeps paying interest on schedule, and neither a rapid rate rally nor a credit scare dominates.
$15.00 to $17.50
More likely if market yields rise, insurance credit spreads widen, catastrophe or reserve news weakens Assurant, liquidity thins, or investors demand an 8% or higher current yield for this subordinated claim.
AIZN AI technical analysis
AIZN AI technical analysis is secondary to credit and rate analysis as of the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. Yahoo Finance listed a July 9 close of $18.83, a day range of $18.67 to $18.95, a 52-week range of $18.52 to $21.97, volume of about 15,305, and average volume near 14,032. That places the note near the lower end of its one-year band with only modest participation.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $18.83 | Yahoo Finance listed AIZN at $18.83 after the July 9, 2026 close. MarketWatch showed a similar mid-to-high $18 zone around the same period. |
| Near support | $18.52 to $18.70 | The 52-week low near $18.52 and the July 9 session low near $18.67 form the first support band for mean-reversion buyers. |
| Intermediate resistance | $19.50 to $20.50 | A recovery toward prices that would compress the current yield into the mid-6% area would need to clear this zone with better volume. |
| Par and call reference | $25.00 | Par is also the optional redemption price on or after January 15, 2026, so upside toward $25 can be capped if Assurant redeems. |
| 52-week high resistance | $21.97 | Yahoo Finance listed the 52-week high at $21.97, a longer-horizon reference if rates fall or credit demand improves. |
| Momentum | Range-bound near lows | Price is closer to the 52-week low than the high, which favors a discounted-income read rather than a breakout trend. |
| Volume | About 15.3K versus 14.0K average | Average volume is low, so single-session prints can move the quote without proving a durable trend. |
| Invalidation | Sustained trade below $18.52 or a credit event | A break of the 52-week low on rising volume, an interest deferral signal, or a material Assurant credit shock would invalidate a simple discount-to-par mean-reversion setup. |
AIZN AI trading strategy
The AIZN AI trading strategy is a research framework for an exchange-traded subordinated note. It is not personalized advice. Review the prospectus, live price and accrued interest, Assurant filings, rate levels, call terms, tax treatment, and position-size limits before acting.
Compare the $1.3125 annual coupon with the live purchase price to estimate current yield, then judge whether Assurant credit quality and your after-tax return needs justify owning a subordinated, callable claim.
Invalidate if Assurant liquidity, leverage, or catastrophe losses deteriorate, or if the note yield no longer compensates for subordination and call risk versus alternatives.
If AIZN remains near the $18.52 to $19.00 band while Assurant credit news is stable and market yields ease, the discount to $25 can narrow. Treat any move toward par as rate and credit dependent, not automatic.
Do not average down solely because the note is below par. A long-dated subordinated note can stay discounted for long periods, and a par call caps recovery once the issuer redeems.
Track Assurant quarterly results, Global Lifestyle and Housing profitability, holding-company cash and debt, interest payment notices, redemption announcements, insurance credit spreads, and the broader path of intermediate and long-term yields.
Reduce confidence if interest is deferred, a call is announced into a weak reinvestment market, liquidity dries up, or issuer filings show weaker cash generation or higher leverage.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Assurant because partners want embedded protection, claims handling, repair, replacement, and housing or device risk transfer rather than building those operations alone. AIZN holders do not own that franchise; they own a subordinated fixed-income claim on Assurant, Inc.
Assurant’s edge sits in partner integrations, scale in device and housing programs, servicing logistics, data, and regulatory licenses. For AIZN, the moat only matters to the extent it supports ongoing interest payments and ultimate principal recovery.
The thesis fails if Assurant defers interest, catastrophe or reserve losses pressure capital, a major partner leaves, reinsurance costs rise, rates reprice long fixed coupons higher, the note is called at par into a worse reinvestment set, or secondary liquidity disappears.
Management matters through capital allocation, leverage, liquidity, underwriting discipline, and whether creditors are treated as permanent partners or temporary capital. Call decisions after January 15, 2026 are a direct capital-structure choice for AIZN holders.
Assurant sits in specialty protection markets tied to connected devices, auto service contracts, lender-placed housing, and renters. Those categories can support durable cash flow, but they remain cyclical with device replacement, housing credit, catastrophe weather, and regulation.
At about $18.83, AIZN offered roughly a 6.97% current yield and a large discount to $25 par. Margin of safety is not automatic: the call at par, interest-deferral right, subordination to senior debt, 2061 maturity, and thin trading can erase a simple yield-to-par narrative.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| AIZN price | $18.83 close on July 9, 2026; day range $18.67 to $18.95 | Yahoo Finance AIZN quote snapshot | July 12, 2026 |
| 52-week range and volume | 52-week range $18.52 to $21.97; volume about 15,305 versus average volume about 14,032 | Yahoo Finance AIZN quote snapshot | July 12, 2026 |
| Note terms | 5.25% fixed coupon; $25 denominations; $250 million original principal; maturity January 15, 2061; quarterly interest on January 15, April 15, July 15, and October 15 | Assurant SEC prospectus supplement dated November 16, 2020 | July 12, 2026 |
| Annual coupon and current yield | $1.3125 annual interest per note; about 6.97% current yield at $18.83 | Prospectus coupon math and Yahoo Finance price | July 12, 2026 |
| Call and deferral terms | Callable at par on or after January 15, 2026; issuer may defer interest for up to five years; unsecured and subordinated to senior indebtedness | Assurant SEC prospectus supplement and QuantumOnline security description | July 12, 2026 |
| Estimated note market value | About $188.3 million if $250 million principal is marked at $18.83 per $25 of face | financial_rigor-style principal mark-to-market calculation | July 12, 2026 |
| Issuer AIZ price and market cap | AIZ near $278.89 with about $13.82 billion market cap, verified as $278.89 x 49.55 million shares (0.01% deviation) | Yahoo Finance AIZ quote and financial_rigor.py market-cap verification | July 12, 2026 |
| Issuer TTM revenue and EPS | About $13.16 billion TTM revenue and $19.52 TTM EPS for AIZ | Yahoo Finance AIZ key statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Issuer Q1 2026 results | $3.42 billion revenue and $274.1 million net income; Global Lifestyle and Housing strength supported the print | Assurant Q1 2026 results coverage and company disclosures | July 12, 2026 |
| Issuer valuation cross-check | About 14.29x PE, 2.37x PB using $117.67 book value per share, 1.26% common dividend yield on a $3.52 dividend, used only for issuer credit context | financial_rigor.py valuation verification with Yahoo inputs | July 12, 2026 |
This AIZN AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, tax advice, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data, prospectus terms, technical snapshots, and yield assumptions, and they can be wrong. AIZN is a subordinated debt security; its market price can fall, interest can be deferred under the indenture, and investors can lose principal.
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