Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc. research snapshot
AIT AI stock analysis currently views Applied Industrial Technologies as a high-quality value-added industrial distributor of motion, fluid power, flow control, automation, and MRO products with accelerating organic demand and disciplined capital returns. Fiscal 2025 sales were $4.563 billion and net income was $393.0 million. Fiscal 2026 third-quarter sales reached $1.251 billion, up 7.3% year over year and up 6.0% organically, while diluted EPS was $2.65 and EBITDA reached a record $153.9 million. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, the July 31 market reference was $345.21, implying about 32.6x TTM EPS of $10.58 and roughly $12.76 billion of market value. This AIT AI stock analysis uses scenarios rather than a certain price prediction and is for informational purposes, not investment advice.
Current price
$345.21 reference close on July 31, 2026
Market cap
$12.76B reported, with $12.759B from $345.21 times 36.96M shares
AI score
69 / 100
Rating
High-quality industrial motion and fluid power distributor with accelerating organic growth and record EBITDA, but a valuation that already prices durable compounder status
Trend status
Constructive uptrend: price at $345.21 sits above the 50-day ($326.34) and 200-day ($285.34) moving averages and just below the $352.76 52-week high set on July 28, 2026
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | AIT distributes and engineers industrial motion, power transmission, bearings, fluid power, flow control, automation, and related maintenance products for MRO and OEM customers across North America and selected international markets, with improving organic demand and record quarterly EBITDA. | High |
| Moat | Local service-center density, technical application expertise, supplier relationships, inventory availability, and switching friction in mission-critical MRO support a moderate moat. The moat is stronger in Engineered Solutions than in commodity product resale. | Medium-high |
| Management | Neil A. Schrimsher has led AIT as CEO since 2011 and as President & CEO since 2013. Capital allocation combines dividends, buybacks, and bolt-on acquisitions, and the board authorized a new 3.0 million share repurchase plan in April 2026. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $4.563B and net income was $393.0M. Through nine months of FY2026, sales were $3.614B and net income was $295.9M. Q3 organic growth accelerated to 6.0%, led by Engineered Solutions up 9.3%. | High |
| Valuation | At the July 31 price, exact arithmetic gave about 32.6x TTM EPS, 6.9x book value, roughly 29.1x free cash flow per share using a $11.88 FCF-per-share input, and about 21.9x EV/EBITDA. The multiple requires continued mid-to-high single-digit growth and margin stability. | High |
| Technical trend | The $345.21 July 31 close sat just below the $352.76 52-week high set on July 28 and well above the $238.34 low, holding above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages with RSI near 59. Live chart confirmation is still required before treating the trend as actionable. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include industrial demand cycles, tariffs and trade policy, LIFO and inflation effects, acquisition integration, competition from Motion, Grainger, Fastenal, and specialists, customer capital-spending pauses, and multiple compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Financial facts, share count, market-cap math, and analyst targets are well supported. Confidence is lower for timing a stock return because market expectations can change before reported results do. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | AIT has a credible quality and cash-flow case, but the rich multiple and industrial-cycle exposure make the investment case conditional rather than certain. | Medium |
AIT AI stock forecast
The AIT AI stock forecast starts from the $345.21 July 31 reference and a $10.58 TTM EPS input. A three-year scenario model produced roughly $225, $373, and $476 per share for bearish, base, and bullish cases using 2%, 8%, and 12% EPS growth with terminal P/E assumptions of 20x, 28x, and 32x. Company FY2026 EPS guidance after Q3 was $10.64 to $10.75, and the analyst consensus target is about $359.50. These are sensitivity anchors, not promises or analyst guarantees.
$455 to $500
More likely if organic growth stays near the high single digits, Engineered Solutions and automation keep outgrowing the core, EBITDA margins hold near the low-12% area, free cash flow funds buybacks and bolt-ons, and investors accept a premium multiple near 32x earnings. The exact model output was about $475.70.
$350 to $395
More likely if AIT compounds EPS near 8% for three years, industrial demand remains constructive but normalizes, pricing offsets inflation and LIFO noise, and investors apply a roughly 28x terminal P/E. The exact model output was about $373.20.
$205 to $235
More likely if U.S. industrial activity slows, tariffs or customer caution cut MRO and project spend, margins compress, acquisition returns disappoint, or investors re-rate the shares toward 20x earnings. The exact model output was about $224.55.
AIT AI technical analysis
AIT AI technical analysis uses the July 31, 2026 $345.21 market reference. The reported 52-week range is $238.34 to $352.76, with the high set on July 28, 2026. Price holds above the 50-day moving average of $326.34 and the 200-day moving average of $285.34, with RSI near 59. This static page does not fetch request-time prices, so moving averages, RSI, MACD, and volume must be refreshed in a chart before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price reference | $345.21 | Market close published for July 31, 2026 and used for the valuation and market-cap calculation. |
| Near support | $325 to $335 | Recent mid-July lows cluster near $322 to $328; a pullback test here needs current chart confirmation, not a guaranteed floor. |
| Secondary support | $300 to $315 | A lower reference zone tied to early-June trading near $314 to $318 that needs validation against the current chart and earnings expectations. |
| Near resistance | $348 to $352.76 | The zone into the $352.76 52-week high set on July 28, 2026 is the first overhead confirmation band. |
| Major resistance | $352.76 | The reported 52-week high is the key published overhead reference. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $326.34, 200-day $285.34 | Price is above both averages, but confirm current readings on a live chart because this page has no request-time market-data fetch. |
| Momentum | RSI near 59 | RSI is constructive but not overbought; confirm on a refreshed chart before treating it as a durable signal. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 283K shares | A break toward the 52-week high is more informative when volume confirms the move. |
| Volatility | $238.34 to $352.76 52-week range | The wide published range and a beta near 0.83 show that industrial-cycle and multiple expectations can move the shares materially. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $300 with weaker fundamentals | A break of this zone together with weaker organic growth, margin pressure, or lower guidance would require a new thesis review. |
AIT AI trading strategy
This AIT AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized investment advice. It connects technical confirmation with organic sales trends, segment mix, EBITDA margin, free cash flow, leverage, acquisitions, share repurchases, and the August 13, 2026 fiscal fourth-quarter report.
Wait for a refreshed chart to show price holding above confirmed moving averages or breaking the $352.76 high on above-average volume, while organic growth, Engineered Solutions demand, and full-year guidance remain intact.
A failed breakout, a close below the defined support zone, or a demand and margin setback should reduce confidence. Define position size and an invalidation condition before entry.
If AIT retraces toward $300 to $315 while reported demand, margin, cash flow, and balance-sheet conditions remain sound, compare the lower price with the verified high-20s free-cash-flow multiple and 32x earnings multiple before assuming it is cheap.
Do not average down solely because the price falls. A lower quote can reflect a real deterioration in industrial demand, pricing power, acquisition returns, or investor expectations.
Track Service Center and Engineered Solutions organic growth, gross and EBITDA margins, LIFO expense, free cash flow, net debt, acquisition contribution, share-repurchase pace, and the August 13, 2026 fiscal fourth-quarter report.
Treat major guidance cuts, working-capital reversals, debt-funded overreach, or an industrial-demand slowdown as reasons to reassess the original thesis.
Investment research summary
Customers pay AIT for local availability, technical expertise, and engineered motion, fluid power, flow control, and automation solutions that keep industrial equipment running and help factories modernize processes.
AIT benefits from service-center proximity, application engineering, supplier access, inventory depth, and switching costs in critical MRO and engineered systems. Those advantages are real but not absolute, because broadline and specialist distributors can compete on price, digital tools, and product breadth.
The thesis fails if industrial demand fades, tariffs or customer caution cut MRO and project spend, Engineered Solutions growth stalls, acquisition returns disappoint, inflation and LIFO reverse margins, or a premium valuation falls faster than earnings grow.
Neil A. Schrimsher leads AIT as President and CEO. The central capital-allocation test is whether bolt-on acquisitions, dividends, and buybacks, including the 3.0 million share plan authorized in April 2026, increase durable per-share free cash flow rather than merely amplify a cyclical industrial peak.
U.S. industrial MRO, factory automation, fluid power, and flow-control demand can support multi-year growth as plants address labor constraints and productivity needs. Near-term results still depend on break-fix activity, customer capital budgets, and trade-policy noise.
The July 31 reference price implied about 32.6x TTM EPS, 29.1x free cash flow, and 21.9x EV/EBITDA by exact calculation. A margin of safety depends on earnings compounding and capital returns matching or exceeding what the market already assumes.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 31 price, shares, market cap, and 52-week range | $345.21 close, 36.96M shares, about $12.76B market cap, $238.34 to $352.76 range | StockAnalysis.com AIT quote and statistics (S&P Global data) | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $4.563B revenue and $393.0M net income; diluted EPS $10.12 | Applied Industrial Technologies FY2025 year-end release and StockAnalysis.com financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Q3 FY2026 sales, EPS, EBITDA, and free cash flow | $1.251B sales, $2.65 diluted EPS, $99.8M net income, $153.9M EBITDA, $95.4M free cash flow | Applied Industrial Technologies Q3 FY2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Nine-month FY2026 sales and net income | $3.614B sales and $295.9M net income through March 31, 2026 | Applied Industrial Technologies Q3 FY2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and equity at March 31, 2026 | $171.6M cash, $365.3M total debt, $1.860B shareholders equity | Applied Industrial Technologies Q3 FY2026 balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM EPS, revenue, and valuation context | TTM EPS $10.58, TTM revenue about $4.84B, trailing PE about 32.6x, EV/EBITDA about 21.9x, P/FCF about 29.1x | StockAnalysis.com AIT statistics page (S&P Global data) | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 company guidance after Q3 | EPS $10.64 to $10.75, total sales growth +7.2% to +7.7%, organic growth +3.8% to +4.2%, EBITDA margin 12.3% to 12.4% | Applied Industrial Technologies Q3 FY2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus and price targets | Consensus Buy from 8 analysts, average target $359.50, range $317 to $380; recent raises include BofA $380, KeyBanc $375, and Mizuho $355 | StockAnalysis.com AIT forecast page (S&P Global and TipRanks) | August 3, 2026 |
| Share repurchase authorization | New 3.0 million share repurchase authorization announced April 28, 2026 | Applied Industrial Technologies Q3 FY2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | $2.04 annualized, $0.51 quarterly, yield about 0.59%, ex-dividend August 14, 2026 | Applied dividend release and StockAnalysis.com dividend page | August 3, 2026 |
This AIT AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on publicly available data as of the stated cutoff and may be incomplete or wrong. Markets, industrial demand, tariffs, acquisition outcomes, and company results can change quickly. Always verify figures with primary filings and consider your own objectives, risk tolerance, and independent research before making investment decisions.
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