AGNC Investment Corp. research snapshot
AGNC AI stock analysis currently reads AGNC Investment Corp. as a pure-play Agency residential mortgage REIT whose return is driven by the spread between Agency MBS yields, repo and TBA funding costs, hedge results, and changes in tangible book value. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, the July 10 NASDAQ close was $11.13 and the verified market capitalization was $12.78 billion. Full-year 2025 net income was $1.670 billion and net spread and dollar roll income was $1.50 per common share against $1.44 of common dividends, but Q1 2026 tangible book value fell to $8.38 and economic return on tangible common equity was negative 1.6%. The AGNC AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges, not a guaranteed target. This page is informational only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$11.13 NASDAQ close on July 10, 2026
Market cap
$12.78 billion verified market capitalization
AI score
60 / 100
Rating
Large pure-play Agency MBS mortgage REIT with a high monthly distribution yield, material leverage, and substantial interest-rate and book-value sensitivity
Trend status
Near nearby support and resistance around $11.00 to $11.20, with rates, mortgage spreads, and the next earnings update likely to drive the next signal
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | AGNC earns income by financing Agency residential mortgage-backed securities and related positions with repurchase agreements, TBA dollar rolls, and an active hedge book. The business is liquid and scalable but depends on spread and risk management rather than recurring customer pricing power. | High |
| Moat | Scale in Agency MBS, captive broker-dealer repo access through Bethesda Securities, hedging infrastructure, and a long operating track record can improve execution. These advantages do not eliminate the commodity-like nature of mortgage spreads or rate-driven marks. | Medium |
| Management | CEO and CIO Peter Federico and CFO Bernice Bell should be judged by risk-adjusted returns on equity, tangible book-value protection, hedge discipline, financing access, ATM capital issuance at a premium or discount to book, dividend coverage, and leverage control. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 net income was $1.670 billion, diluted EPS $1.47, and net spread and dollar roll income $1.50 per common share. Q1 2026 net spread and dollar roll income rose to $0.42 per share and covered the $0.36 quarterly dividend, but tangible book value fell $0.50 to $8.38 and GAAP net loss to common was $0.17 per share. | High |
| Valuation | At $11.13, financial_rigor.py calculates about 7.57x FY2025 diluted EPS, 1.25x December 2025 tangible book value of $8.88, 1.33x March 2026 tangible book value of $8.38, and a 12.94% yield using the $1.44 annualized dividend. Mortgage REIT valuation must also consider book-value volatility and dilution from equity issuance. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The July 10 close sat near a $11.00 to $11.10 support zone and resistance around $11.10 to $11.20 in available technical snapshots. This is a range framework, not evidence of a confirmed directional trend. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high because tangible net book value at-risk leverage was 7.4x at March 31, 2026 and outcomes depend on mortgage spreads, prepayments, short-term funding, hedge effectiveness, liquidity, book value, and common-share ATM issuance. | High |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because primary company releases and market references are available. Confidence in a return outcome is lower because mortgage REITs can reprice abruptly when rates, volatility, or spreads change. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | AGNC is better treated as a rate-sensitive income and book-value research candidate than as a predictable dividend compounder. A margin of safety requires stress-testing the distribution and tangible book value, not simply annualizing the current yield. | Medium-low |
AGNC AI stock forecast
The AGNC AI stock forecast uses scenarios, not a certain price prediction. A three-year auditable mechanical model using the July 10, 2026 price of $11.13, FY2025 diluted EPS of $1.47, and different EPS and multiple assumptions produces about $17.00 in a bullish case, $11.80 in a base case, and $5.70 in a bearish case before dividends. These are sensitivity cases, not price targets, because tangible book value, net spread income, rates, mortgage spreads, leverage, and ATM issuance can change.
$15 to $18 before dividends
More likely if Agency MBS spreads tighten or remain supportive, funding costs ease relative to asset yields, hedges protect book value, prepayments stay manageable, net spread and dollar roll income covers the dividend, and investors accept a premium to tangible book value.
$10 to $13 before dividends
More likely if net spread and dollar roll income stays near the current dividend, tangible book value changes modestly, financing remains available, and the market continues to value AGNC near or modestly above tangible book with a high required yield.
$5 to $8 before dividends
More likely if rate volatility or mortgage spreads hurt tangible book value, prepayments or funding costs rise, hedge results disappoint, leverage becomes less tolerable, earnings coverage weakens, or the monthly dividend is reduced.
AGNC AI technical analysis
AGNC AI technical analysis is range-bound as of the July 12, 2026 cutoff. The latest verified close used here is $11.13 on July 10. Chartmill and Investtech references identified nearby support around $11.00 to $11.10 and resistance near $11.10 to $11.20, with deeper support near $10.30 to $10.71 and higher resistance toward the $12.19 52-week high area. Moving-average and momentum series should be refreshed on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $11.13 per common share | Google Finance and related market references reported the July 10, 2026 NASDAQ close used for this page. |
| Immediate support | $11.00 to $11.10 | Chartmill identified a support zone from about $11.00 to $11.10 formed by trend lines and moving averages. Refresh it with a current chart and volume data. |
| Deeper support | $10.30 to $10.71, then $8.38 tangible book | Technical references cite deeper zones near $10.56 to $10.71 and about $10.30. March 2026 tangible net book value per common share of $8.38 is a valuation reference, not guaranteed chart support. |
| Near resistance | $11.10 to $11.20 | Investtech and classic pivot references clustered near $11.10 to $11.18 as nearby resistance around the July 10 close. |
| Higher resistance | $11.48 to $12.19 | A move above the near resistance band would need confirmation toward the $11.48 RSI-linked area and the $12.19 52-week high reference from market data. |
| Moving averages | Refresh on a live chart | A consistent multi-source current moving-average set was not locked before the cutoff, so no static values are asserted. |
| Momentum | Refresh on a live chart | Use RSI and price reaction around $11.00 and $11.20 as confirmation tools rather than standalone signals. |
| Volume | Monitor around earnings and dividend dates | Watch participation around the July 21, 2026 Q2 stockholder presentation, Treasury moves, mortgage-spread changes, and monthly dividend announcements. |
| Volatility | Rate and mortgage-spread sensitive | Mortgage REIT volatility can rise when Treasury yields, implied volatility, funding markets, prepayment expectations, or Agency MBS spreads move. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $11.00, then book-value deterioration | A break below the referenced support zone calls for a fresh review of price action and fundamentals, especially tangible book value, leverage, hedge positioning, and dividend coverage. |
AGNC AI trading strategy
The AGNC AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal investment advice. It connects technical levels with tangible book value, net spread and dollar roll income, dividend coverage, leverage, funding, hedge exposure, mortgage spreads, prepayments, and the Treasury-rate backdrop.
Watch for AGNC to hold above $11.00 to $11.10 and then clear $11.20 with improving volume, stable or rising tangible book-value commentary, dividend coverage, and a rate or spread backdrop that supports Agency mortgage REITs.
A failed breakout or sustained close below $11.00 weakens the setup, especially if tangible book value falls or management reports worse funding, spread, prepayment, or leverage conditions.
If AGNC retests the $10.30 to $10.71 technical zone or trades closer to the $8.38 tangible book reference without a worsening in net spread and dollar roll income, funding access, hedges, or liquidity, compare price with a conservative view of book value and dividend sustainability.
Do not assume a high yield means value if price weakness follows book-value erosion, a larger discount required by investors, poor hedge performance, rising funding costs, heavier ATM dilution, or a reduced distribution outlook.
Track tangible net book value per common share, net spread and dollar roll income, monthly dividend declarations, economic and at-risk leverage, net interest spread, asset yields, funding costs, hedge ratio, CPR, Agency MBS spreads, unencumbered liquidity, common-share ATM issuance, and the yield curve.
Position sizing should reflect that AGNC is a leveraged Agency mortgage REIT. Historical dividends and a static AI score are not substitutes for live market data or personal risk limits.
Investment research summary
AGNC invests on a leveraged basis mainly in Agency residential MBS that carry a guarantee against credit losses by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, or Ginnie Mae. Shareholders are paid from the difference between asset income, funding and hedge costs, operating expenses, and changes in the value of a leveraged Agency portfolio.
The moat is operational rather than customer-facing: Agency MBS scale, repo funding relationships including a captive broker-dealer, risk management, hedging, and a long monthly-dividend track record. It can improve execution, but it does not create permanent pricing power over mortgage spreads.
The thesis fails if Agency MBS spreads widen, rate volatility damages hedges or tangible book value, repo funding becomes more expensive or scarce, prepayments change unfavorably, leverage amplifies losses, common equity issuance dilutes value, or the monthly dividend no longer matches net spread and dollar roll income.
Management must balance income generation against book-value defense. The key tests are hedge discipline, financing resilience, leverage control, ATM capital issuance relative to tangible book, dividend policy, and whether risk-adjusted returns exceed the cost of capital through a full rate cycle.
Agency mortgage finance depends on housing-credit formation, the supply and demand for Agency MBS, bank and nonbank funding, Federal Reserve policy, GSE policy, and Treasury volatility. The sector benefits from stable financing and investable spreads, but it is not a simple long-term growth story.
At $11.13, the selected inputs imply about 1.25x December 2025 tangible book value, 1.33x March 2026 tangible book value, and a 12.94% annualized dividend yield. The margin of safety should be judged against a forward, stressed estimate of tangible book value and dividend coverage rather than a single historical multiple.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| AGNC quote reference | $11.13 NASDAQ close on July 10, 2026 | Google Finance AGNC quote | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $12.78 billion calculated from $11.13 x 1.1478 billion shares, matching the reported $12.78 billion with a 0.04% variance | Pineify financial_rigor.py and company share count | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 1,147.8 million common shares outstanding as of March 31, 2026; StockAnalysis rounded share count of 1.15 billion cross-validated with a 0.10% variance | AGNC Q1 2026 earnings release and StockAnalysis | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 interest income and net income | $3.523 billion interest income and $1.670 billion net income for the year ended December 31, 2025; interest income matched Macrotrends revenue presentation at a 0.00% variance | AGNC Q4 2025 earnings release and Macrotrends | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 per-share earnings and dividends | $1.47 diluted net income per common share, $1.50 net spread and dollar roll income per common share, and $1.44 dividends declared per common share; full-year economic return on tangible common equity was 22.7% | AGNC Q4 2025 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 earnings and portfolio | $0.42 net spread and dollar roll income per common share, $(0.17) GAAP net loss per common share, $0.36 dividends, $94.7 billion investment portfolio, 7.4x at-risk leverage, $7.0 billion unencumbered cash and Agency MBS, and 10.3% projected CPR | AGNC Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Tangible book value | $8.88 tangible net book value per common share at December 31, 2025 and $8.38 at March 31, 2026 after a $(0.50) quarterly decline | AGNC Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 earnings releases | July 12, 2026 |
| Dividend and valuation inputs | $0.12 monthly common dividend, $1.44 annualized; financial_rigor.py calculated 7.57x PE on FY2025 diluted EPS, 1.25x PB on December 2025 tangible book, 1.33x PB on March 2026 tangible book, and 12.94% yield | AGNC releases, market quotes, and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical reference | Support near $11.00 to $11.10 and deeper $10.30 to $10.71; resistance near $11.10 to $11.20 with higher resistance toward $12.19 | Chartmill, Investtech, and Barchart AGNC technical snapshots | July 12, 2026 |
This AGNC AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios use public data available as of July 12, 2026 and may be wrong if interest rates, mortgage spreads, prepayments, funding markets, tangible book value, leverage, dividend policy, market conditions, or company disclosures change.
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