Autodesk, Inc. research snapshot
ADSK AI stock analysis currently reads Autodesk as a high-quality design and make software franchise with recurring subscription revenue, roughly 92% gross margin, and a durable position across architecture, engineering, construction, manufacturing, and media workflows. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, ADSK closed near $234.20 on July 31 with a market capitalization near $49.45 billion. The analysis is constructive on business quality and the raised fiscal 2027 guidance, but cautious on the $3.6 billion MaintainX acquisition, macro-sensitive construction and manufacturing demand, and the overhead test near the 200-day moving average. This page uses scenario ranges, not a certain stock price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$234.20
Market cap
$49.45 billion
AI score
74 / 100
Rating
High-quality design and make software franchise with execution and valuation risk
Trend status
Above the 50-day moving average but below the 200-day moving average
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Autodesk sells subscription design, engineering, construction, manufacturing, operations, and media software with recurring revenue, roughly 92% gross margin, and workflow-critical products. | High |
| Moat | Moat comes from file standards, trained user habits, BIM and CAD workflow depth, enterprise switching costs, partner ecosystems, and product breadth across AutoCAD, Revit, Fusion, Construction Cloud, and now MaintainX in operations. | Medium-high |
| Management | Andrew Anagnost has led the subscription transition and the push into AI and operations, and raised fiscal 2027 guidance after a strong first quarter, but the $3.6 billion MaintainX acquisition adds integration and capital allocation questions. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2026 revenue grew 18% to $7.206 billion, Q1 FY2027 revenue grew 18% to $1.934 billion with $876 million free cash flow, and Autodesk raised FY2027 revenue guidance to $8.155 billion to $8.215 billion. | High |
| Valuation | Using the $12.525 midpoint of FY2027 non-GAAP EPS guidance, ADSK traded near 18.7x forward non-GAAP EPS and about 18.1x trailing free cash flow per share. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | ADSK closed at $234.20 on July 31, above the $215.89 50-day moving average but below the $253.84 200-day moving average, with RSI near 61.2 and a strong rebound from the June low. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include the MaintainX integration, construction and manufacturing cyclicality, competitive pressure from lower-cost CAD/BIM tools, AI disruption, reseller disruption, and valuation multiple compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for source-backed historical data and audited math. Lower for forecast ranges because the hard question is whether Autodesk can sustain growth and margin expansion while integrating MaintainX through a macro cycle. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The page provides a research framework and scenario bands, not a buy or sell instruction. | Medium |
ADSK AI stock forecast
The ADSK AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $234.20 quote and the $12.525 midpoint of Autodesk FY2027 non-GAAP EPS guidance. The audited three-year framework produced a bearish area near $186, a base area near $334, and a bullish area near $494 before any future share count change.
$460 to $520
More likely if AECO, AutoCAD, Fusion, Construction Cloud, Make, and the MaintainX operations footprint keep compounding, FY2027 free cash flow reaches management guidance, AI improves design and make automation, and the market values ADSK near a mid-20s earnings multiple.
$310 to $355
More likely if revenue grows low to mid teens, non-GAAP operating margin stays near 39%, buybacks reduce share count modestly, MaintainX adds revenue without major integration drag, and ADSK earns a near-19x earnings multiple.
$170 to $200
More likely if construction and manufacturing demand slow, MaintainX integration costs exceed benefits, competitive tools pressure pricing, AI changes workflows faster than Autodesk monetizes them, or ADSK is valued near a mid-teens earnings multiple.
ADSK AI technical analysis
ADSK AI technical analysis shows a stock in a rebound as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. ADSK closed at $234.20 on July 31 after rallying from a $185.50 June low, above the $215.89 50-day moving average but still below the $253.84 200-day moving average, so the long-term trend remains a test.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $234.20 | StockAnalysis listed ADSK at $234.20 at the July 31, 2026 close, down 0.33% on the day with a $49.45 billion market cap. |
| Near support | $215 to $218 | StockAnalysis showed the 50-day moving average near $215.89, which is the first support zone for the July rebound. |
| Secondary support | $205 to $213 | The early July consolidation ranged near $203 to $213, so a pullback to that band would retest the breakout area used by the recent rally. |
| Near resistance | $238 to $250 | ADSK printed a July 29 high near $245.25 and recent closes near $237 to $245, so sellers have defended the mid-$240s. |
| Long-term resistance | $253 to $260 | StockAnalysis showed the 200-day moving average near $253.84, which is the main overhead level that would confirm a longer trend change. |
| Momentum | RSI near 61.2 | StockAnalysis showed RSI near 61.2, which is neutral to firm and consistent with a rebound that is not yet overbought. |
| Volume and volatility | 20-day average volume near 2.2 million | Volume ran above 2.5 million shares during the late July rally, so position sizing should still allow for earnings, MaintainX news, and macro-driven software-stock swings. |
| Invalidation | Close below $215 | A decisive close below the 50-day moving average near $215.89 would weaken the rebound setup and shift attention to the $205 to $213 support band. |
ADSK AI trading strategy
The ADSK AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for monitoring a high-margin software stock through a technical rebound and a pending acquisition close. It is not personal advice and should be paired with fresh chart data, filings, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch for ADSK to hold above the $215 to $218 support band, then build above the $245 to $250 resistance zone on volume near or above the recent average before treating the bounce as a confirmed trend change.
A close below $215 or a failed rally near the mid-$240s before the next earnings update on August 27, 2026 should invalidate the near-term rebound setup.
If ADSK pulls back toward the $205 to $213 band without a new fundamental break, compare the reaction with MaintainX integration progress, billings, renewal rates, current RPO, AECO growth, and free cash flow.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule because software stocks can gap when guidance, MaintainX deal news, macro construction demand, or valuation multiples reset.
Track AECO, AutoCAD, MFG, M&E, RPO, current RPO, billings, free cash flow, non-GAAP operating margin, MaintainX closing conditions and integration, share repurchases, and customer adoption of Forma, Fusion, and AI-assisted workflows.
Reduce confidence if revenue growth depends mainly on transaction timing while subscription demand, renewal quality, product adoption, or free cash flow conversion weakens, or if the MaintainX acquisition creates integration drag.
Investment research summary
Autodesk sells the software layer that designers, engineers, builders, manufacturers, operations teams, and studios use to create, simulate, document, collaborate on, and manage complex physical and digital projects.
The moat is built on CAD and BIM standards, trained professional habits, project data, enterprise workflows, reseller and partner ecosystems, product breadth, and switching costs that rise when teams standardize around Autodesk tools.
The thesis fails if construction or manufacturing demand contracts, the $3.6 billion MaintainX acquisition erodes returns, lower-cost tools weaken pricing, AI reduces the need for legacy workflows, cloud migration disappoints, or past control issues reappear in a way that hurts trust.
Management raised fiscal 2027 guidance after a strong first quarter and is pushing the Design and Make platform plus the MaintainX operations expansion, but the next test is disciplined capital allocation, integration execution, AI product monetization, and sustaining margin improvement.
Autodesk sits inside long-duration digitization of construction, manufacturing, infrastructure, and media workflows, while AI and cloud collaboration can both expand the platform and lower barriers for new competitors.
At about 18.7x the midpoint of FY2027 non-GAAP EPS guidance, ADSK trades below the high multiples software stocks carried in 2021 to 2024, but margin of safety depends on durable billings growth, free cash flow conversion, and clean MaintainX integration.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADSK price | $234.20, close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis quote snapshot | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $49.45 billion, verified as $234.20 x 211.15 million shares with 0.00% variance | StockAnalysis and financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 revenue | $7.206 billion, cross-checked against the Q1 FY2027 release and StockAnalysis | Autodesk FY2026 results and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 net income | $1.124 billion, with trailing twelve month net income near $1.463 billion | Autodesk FY2026 results and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2027 results | $1.934 billion revenue, $1.688 billion billings, $2.32 GAAP EPS, $2.99 non-GAAP EPS, and $876 million free cash flow | Autodesk Q1 FY2027 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | Cash and cash equivalents near $2.92 billion, total debt near $2.72 billion, and net cash near $585 million | StockAnalysis balance sheet snapshot | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2027 guidance | $8.155 billion to $8.215 billion revenue, $12.40 to $12.65 non-GAAP EPS, and $2.725 billion to $2.800 billion free cash flow, excluding MaintainX | Autodesk Q1 FY2027 guidance | August 2, 2026 |
| MaintainX acquisition | $3.6 billion proposed acquisition announced May 28, 2026 to expand into operations management; not included in FY2027 guidance until close | Autodesk and PR Newswire announcements | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 18.70x forward non-GAAP EPS, 18.12x trailing P/FCF, 6.59x trailing PS, 0.90 PEG, and 0.00% dividend yield | financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis valuation verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy from 35 analysts with a $313.89 average price target, range $220.50 to $456 | StockAnalysis analyst forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day moving average near $215.89, 200-day moving average near $253.84, RSI near 61.20, and 52-week range $185.50 to $329.09 | StockAnalysis statistics and price history | August 2, 2026 |
This ADSK AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots, and third-party data as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, billings updates, MaintainX deal news, product releases, acquisitions, analyst actions, market moves, or macro conditions.
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