Autodesk, Inc. research snapshot
ADSK AI stock analysis currently reads Autodesk as a high-quality design and make software franchise with strong recurring revenue, high gross margin, and a durable position in architecture, engineering, construction, manufacturing, and media workflows. At the July 8, 2026 data cutoff, ADSK traded near $212.38 with a market capitalization near $44.84 billion. The analysis is constructive on business quality but cautious on valuation, macro-sensitive construction demand, transaction model execution, and long-term technical resistance. This page uses scenario ranges, not a certain stock price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$212.38
Market cap
$44.84 billion
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
High-quality design software compounder with macro and execution risk
Trend status
Recovering above short-term averages but still near long-term resistance
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Autodesk sells subscription design, engineering, construction, manufacturing, and media software with recurring revenue, high gross profit, and workflow-critical products. | High |
| Moat | Moat comes from file standards, trained user habits, BIM and CAD workflow depth, enterprise switching costs, partner ecosystems, and product breadth across AutoCAD, Revit, Fusion, and Construction Cloud. | Medium-high |
| Management | Andrew Anagnost has led the subscription transition since 2017 and recently bought shares, but investors still need to monitor capital allocation, restructuring follow-through, and execution after the transaction model change. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2026 revenue grew 18% to $7.206 billion, FY2026 net income was $1.124 billion, and Q1 FY2027 revenue grew 18% to $1.934 billion with free cash flow of $876 million. | High |
| Valuation | Using the $12.525 midpoint of FY2027 non-GAAP EPS guidance, ADSK traded near 17.0x forward non-GAAP EPS and about 16.2x FY2027 guided FCF per share. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | ADSK is above the 50-day moving average in one technical snapshot but close to the 200-day average, so the trend is improving but not clearly confirmed. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include construction and manufacturing cyclicality, competitive pressure from lower-cost CAD/BIM tools, cloud migration execution, AI disruption, reseller disruption, and valuation multiple compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for source-backed historical data and audited math. Lower for forecast ranges because the hard question is whether Autodesk can sustain growth and margin expansion through a macro cycle. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The page provides a research framework and scenario bands, not a buy or sell instruction. | Medium |
ADSK AI stock forecast
The ADSK AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $212.38 quote and the $12.525 midpoint of Autodesk FY2027 non-GAAP EPS guidance. The audited three-year framework produced a bearish area near $161, a base area near $316, and a bullish area near $464 before any future share count change.
$440 to $480
More likely if AECO, AutoCAD, Fusion, Construction Cloud, Forma, and Make workflows keep compounding, FY2027 free cash flow reaches management guidance, AI improves design automation, and the market values ADSK near a mid-20s earnings multiple.
$295 to $330
More likely if revenue grows high single digits to low teens, non-GAAP operating margin stays near 39%, buybacks reduce share count modestly, and ADSK earns a near-20x earnings multiple.
$150 to $175
More likely if construction and manufacturing demand slow, transaction-model benefits fade, competitive tools pressure pricing, AI changes workflows faster than Autodesk monetizes them, or ADSK is valued near a mid-teens earnings multiple.
ADSK AI technical analysis
ADSK AI technical analysis is mixed as of the July 8, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis showed ADSK near $212.38 on July 7, while Investing.com placed the 50-day moving average near $202.02 and the 200-day moving average near $212.89, putting the stock near an important long-term test.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $212.38 | StockAnalysis listed ADSK at $212.38 with a $44.84 billion market cap on the July 7, 2026 snapshot. |
| Near support | $202 to $205 | Investing.com showed a 50-day moving average near $202.02, and TipRanks listed classic pivot support around $202.15. |
| Secondary support | $196 to $200 | TipRanks listed lower pivot support near $196.83 to $200.34, which is the next area to watch if the 50-day zone fails. |
| Near resistance | $211 to $214 | Investing.com showed the 5-day and 200-day moving averages near $213.79 and $212.89, while TipRanks listed pivot resistance near $211.36 to $215.25. |
| Long-term resistance | $224 to $263 | TipRanks showed a 50-day simple average near $224.47 and a 200-day simple average near $263.46 in a separate technical snapshot, so long-term trend data should be refreshed before trading. |
| Momentum | RSI from 48.69 to 64.36 | TipRanks showed RSI near neutral while Investing.com showed a firmer RSI reading, highlighting data-provider and timing differences. |
| Volume and volatility | ATR near 8.55 | TipRanks listed ATR near 8.55, so position sizing should allow for earnings, guidance, and macro-driven software-stock swings. |
| Invalidation | Close below $202 | A decisive close below the 50-day and pivot-support area would weaken the rebound setup and shift attention to the high-$190s support band. |
ADSK AI trading strategy
The ADSK AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for monitoring a high-margin software stock after a valuation reset. It is not personal advice and should be paired with fresh chart data, filings, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch for ADSK to hold above the $202 to $205 support band, reclaim the $213 to $215 moving-average and pivot area, and then show follow-through above the $224 to $225 zone on volume above recent average.
A close below $202 or a failed breakout after the next billings, RPO, or FY2027 guidance update should invalidate the near-term rebound setup.
If ADSK pulls back toward the high $190s without a new fundamental break, compare the reaction with Q2 FY2027 guidance, billings, renewal rates, net revenue retention, AECO growth, and free cash flow.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule because software stocks can gap when guidance, macro construction demand, or valuation multiples reset.
Track AECO, AutoCAD, MFG, M&E, RPO, current RPO, billings, free cash flow, non-GAAP operating margin, MaintainX integration, share repurchases, and customer adoption of Forma, Fusion, and AI-assisted workflows.
Reduce confidence if revenue growth depends mainly on transaction timing while subscription demand, renewal quality, product adoption, or free cash flow conversion weakens.
Investment research summary
Autodesk sells the software layer that designers, engineers, builders, manufacturers, and studios use to create, simulate, document, collaborate on, and manage complex physical and digital projects.
The moat is built on CAD and BIM standards, trained professional habits, project data, enterprise workflows, reseller and partner ecosystems, product breadth, and switching costs that rise when teams standardize around Autodesk tools.
The thesis fails if construction or manufacturing demand contracts, lower-cost tools weaken pricing, AI reduces the need for legacy workflows, cloud migration disappoints, or past control issues reappear in a way that hurts trust.
Management has executed the subscription transition and is pushing the Design and Make platform, but the next test is disciplined capital allocation, MaintainX integration, AI product monetization, and sustaining margin improvement after restructuring.
Autodesk sits inside long-duration digitization of construction, manufacturing, infrastructure, and media workflows, while AI and cloud collaboration can both expand the platform and lower barriers for new competitors.
At about 17.0x the midpoint of FY2027 non-GAAP EPS guidance, ADSK is cheaper than many historical quality-software periods, but margin of safety depends on durable billings growth and free cash flow conversion.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADSK price | $212.38 | StockAnalysis quote snapshot | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $44.84 billion, verified as $212.38 x 211 million shares with 0.06% variance | StockAnalysis and financial_rigor.py market cap verification | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2026 revenue | $7.206 billion, cross-checked against Macrotrends and StockAnalysis | Autodesk FY2026 10-K, Macrotrends, and StockAnalysis | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2026 net income | $1.124 billion, cross-checked against Macrotrends with 0.00% variance | Autodesk FY2026 release and Macrotrends | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2026 product mix | AECO $3.583 billion, AutoCAD and AutoCAD LT $1.787 billion, MFG $1.379 billion, M&E $332 million, Other $125 million | Autodesk FY2026 10-K product-family revenue table | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2027 results | $1.934 billion revenue, $491 million GAAP net income, $2.32 diluted EPS, and $876 million free cash flow | Autodesk Q1 FY2027 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash, marketable securities, and debt | $3.309 billion cash plus marketable securities and $2.484 billion long-term notes payable at April 30, 2026 | Autodesk Q1 FY2027 balance sheet | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2027 guidance | $8.155 billion to $8.215 billion revenue, $12.40 to $12.65 non-GAAP EPS, and $2.725 billion to $2.800 billion free cash flow | Autodesk Q1 FY2027 guidance | July 8, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 16.96x forward non-GAAP EPS, 14.06x book value, 16.22x guided FCF per share, and 0.00% dividend yield | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day average near $213.79, 50-day average near $202.02, 200-day average near $212.89, RSI near 64.36, with TipRanks showing separate pivot support around $202.15 | Investing.com and TipRanks technical snapshots | July 8, 2026 |
This ADSK AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots, and third-party data as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, billings updates, product releases, acquisitions, analyst actions, market moves, or macro conditions.
