Albertsons Companies Inc. research snapshot
ACI AI stock analysis currently reads Albertsons as a cash-generative grocer with defensive food demand, a large store base, growing retail media revenue, and a very low earnings multiple, but also heavy debt, thin profit margins, post-merger-failure overhang, and no dividend. The stock trades near its 52-week low following the abandoned Kroger merger and a Q4 FY2026 impairment charge, while analyst targets average $20.18 but the chart shows no confirmed uptrend. Investment certainty is below headline data confidence because leverage and margin pressure reduce the safety margin even at a cheap-looking multiple.
Current price
$14.76
Market cap
$7.23 billion
AI score
62 / 100
Rating
Cash-generative grocer at a low multiple, heavy leverage watch
Trend status
Weak technical trend near 52-week lows with overhead resistance
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 10, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Albertsons operates the second-largest U.S. supermarket chain with 2,250+ stores across 34 states under banners including Albertsons, Safeway, Vons, Jewel-Osco, and ACME. | High |
| Moat | Store density, local banner recognition, private labels, pharmacy relationships, and a growing retail media business provide some advantages, but Walmart, Costco, Kroger, Aldi, and Amazon all compete for the same grocery dollar. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Susan Morris leads a company navigating store-footprint rationalization, retail media growth, and balance-sheet deleveraging after the Kroger merger was blocked in 2025. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue is approximately $83.2 billion, but TTM net income is only about $217 million due to thin margins, high interest expense, and a Q4 FY2026 impairment charge of roughly $480 million. | High |
| Valuation | ACI trades at a very low P/S ratio near 0.09x, a forward P/E near 6.5x, and an EV/EBITDA near 6.4x, but the trailing GAAP P/E above 33x reflects the impairment distortion. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | ACI trades near $14.76, close to its 52-week low of $13.16, with the 50-day moving average acting as overhead resistance and no clean trend confirmation. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is elevated: food demand is defensive, but total debt-to-equity over 800%, thin operating margins, store closure programs, zero dividend, and potential strategic uncertainty post-merger pose real risks. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | The data set is good, but AI confidence should not be confused with return certainty in a heavily leveraged, thin-margin grocery operator. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium-low. ACI generates meaningful free cash flow and looks cheap on some metrics, but the debt load and lack of margin of safety make it harder to underwrite than a cleaner balance-sheet grocer. | Medium-low |
ACI AI stock forecast
The ACI AI stock forecast should be read as a valuation scenario, not a price promise. Using a July 10, 2026 reference price near $14.76 and forward EPS estimates in the $2.27 area, the tested three-year range spans roughly $10.70 in a bearish case, $17.40 in a base case, and $30.20 in a bullish case. The range is wide because the market must assess whether Albertsons can grow retail media, stabilize store-level margins, and reduce leverage, or whether thin profitability and heavy debt keep the stock range-bound.
$25 to $32
More likely if Albertsons Media Collective revenue accelerates, store-closure program improves overall margins, interest costs decline, leverage ratio improves, and the stock earns a double-digit earnings multiple reflecting improved profitability.
$16 to $19
More likely if revenue stays flat to slightly positive, free cash flow funds debt reduction, retail media grows steadily, and the stock holds a forward multiple near 7x.
$9 to $12
More likely if Walmart, Costco, Aldi, and Kroger force heavier price investment, store closures accelerate without margin improvement, interest expenses stay elevated, or a strategic event creates uncertainty.
ACI AI technical analysis
ACI AI technical analysis is weak as of the July 10, 2026 data cutoff. Google Finance showed ACI at $14.76 on July 10, near the 52-week low of $13.16 and well below the 52-week high of $22.39. The stock needs a clean break above moving-average resistance and volume confirmation before the technical setup becomes more constructive.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $14.76 | Google Finance closing price for July 10, 2026, with market cap near $7.23 billion. |
| Near support | $13.16 to $14.00 | The 52-week low at $13.16 is the main support reference. Any break below this level would mark a new low. |
| Deeper support | $11.50 to $12.50 | If the 52-week low breaks, the next support zone would be based on pre-2025 price levels. |
| Near resistance | $16.00 to $17.00 | The lower end of analyst price targets and a potential round-number resistance zone. |
| Upper resistance | $20.00 to $22.39 | The average analyst target near $20 and the 52-week high at $22.39 frame the heavier resistance band. |
| 50-day SMA | Est. $16.00 to $17.50 | ACI likely trades below its 50-day moving average, consistent with the weak trend. |
| 200-day SMA | Est. $18.00 to $19.50 | ACI likely trades well below its 200-day moving average, confirming a longer-term downtrend. |
| Momentum | Weak to neutral | RSI is likely in the 35 to 45 range given the stock trading near its 52-week low, suggesting momentum is weak but not yet deeply oversold. |
| Volume | Watch above 10M | Average volume near 8 million shares. A volume spike on an up day would signal potential accumulation. |
| Invalidation | Close below $13.16 | A decisive close below the 52-week low of $13.16 would weaken the chart further and shift attention toward deeper support. |
ACI AI trading strategy
The ACI AI trading strategy below is a research framework, not personal advice. It combines a defensive grocer thesis with rules for price confirmation, balance-sheet monitoring, and risk control. The high debt load and lack of dividend mean the stock may act more like a deleveraging story than a steady income compounder.
Wait for ACI to reclaim the $16 to $17 resistance zone, hold above the 50-day moving average, and show improving volume before treating the chart as a potential recovery.
Do not chase a short squeeze. A close back below the reclaimed resistance zone would invalidate the trend setup.
If ACI holds the $13.16 to $14.00 support area, compare the pullback against forward EPS estimates, free cash flow generation, leverage trends, and retail media revenue growth.
A close below $13.16 or a negative Q1 FY2027 earnings surprise on July 23 would turn a support test into a weaker setup.
Track identical store sales, retail media collective revenue, gross margin trends, interest expense, net debt to EBITDA, free cash flow use (debt paydown vs buybacks), store closure pace, and any strategic alternative announcements.
Keep the scenario model updated after quarterly earnings. A low P/S or P/E multiple does not remove the balance-sheet or competitive risk.
Investment research summary
Albertsons monetizes recurring grocery trips across a network of 2,250+ stores. Customers pay for food availability, pharmacy convenience, local banner trust, private-label value, and a growing retail media ecosystem.
The moat comes from store footprint density, banner recognition, procurement scale, distribution, private labels, pharmacy relationships, and the Albertsons Media Collective retail media platform. It is real but narrow because grocery customers compare prices constantly across many alternatives.
The thesis fails if store closures accelerate without margin improvement, retail media growth disappoints, Walmart and Costco continue gaining share, interest costs stay high on the large debt load, or a strategic review creates uncertainty rather than value.
CEO Susan Morris leads a company in a transitional phase: the Kroger merger was blocked, stores are being evaluated for closure, and the retail media business is being scaled. The key test is whether Albertsons can improve returns without the scale benefits of a Kroger combination.
Food retail is essential and recession-resistant, but the industry is consolidating and shifting toward value pricing, private label, retail media, delivery, and pickup. Scale increasingly matters, and mid-sized players face pressure from both discounters and premium operators.
ACI looks very cheap on P/S (0.09x) and forward P/E (~6.5x), but cheapness reflects real leverage and profitability risk. Margin of safety is limited because the balance sheet carries significant debt relative to equity and the company pays no dividend.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $14.76 at close on July 10, 2026 | Google Finance ACI quote | July 10, 2026 |
| Market cap | $7.23 billion | Google Finance ACI quote | July 10, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 489.78 million | Google Finance ACI quote | July 10, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | Approximately $83.17 billion | Yahoo Finance ACI key statistics; Google Finance income statement | July 10, 2026 |
| TTM net income | Approximately $217.4 million | Yahoo Finance ACI key statistics; Google Finance income statement | July 10, 2026 |
| Cash and equivalents | $238.3 million | Yahoo Finance ACI key statistics | July 10, 2026 |
| Net debt to EBITDA | Enterprise Value $21.75B, EBITDA est. $3.4B, ratio approx. 6.4x | Yahoo Finance ACI key statistics | July 10, 2026 |
| Total debt to equity | Approximately 833% | Yahoo Finance ACI key statistics | July 10, 2026 |
| Levered free cash flow (TTM) | Approximately $1.53 billion | Yahoo Finance ACI key statistics | July 10, 2026 |
| Forward P/E | Approximately 6.5x | Calculated from analyst forward EPS estimates | July 10, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | 9 Buy, 2 Hold, 1 Sell; average target $20.18 | Google Finance analyst ratings | July 10, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $13.16 to $22.39 | Google Finance ACI quote | July 10, 2026 |
| Next earnings | Q1 FY2027 on July 23, 2026; EPS consensus est. $0.54 | Google Finance earnings calendar | July 10, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of July 10, 2026 and can be wrong if Albertsons results, competition, store closures, debt costs, interest rates, or market sentiment change.
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