Albertsons Companies Inc. research snapshot
ACI AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Albertsons as a defensive grocer trading at a very low valuation after an earnings reset. The stock closed at $11.58 on July 31, 2026, with a market capitalization near $5.62 billion. On July 23, 2026 the company reported fiscal Q1 adjusted EPS of $0.42 versus a consensus estimate of $0.53, identical sales down 0.8%, and cut adjusted EPS guidance for the fiscal year ending February 2027 to $1.75 to $1.85 from $2.22 to $2.32, citing a cautious lower-income consumer and weaker grocery industry units. The stock fell more than 20% that day and now trades near the 52-week low of $10.86, below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The forward P/E is about 6.5x, the price-to-sales ratio is near 0.07x, the free cash flow yield is about 10%, and the dividend yield is near 5.9%, but total debt of about $15.7 billion, market share losses, the announced retirement of CFO Sharon McCollam, and shareholder litigation announced after the drop cap the certainty of a durable recovery.
Current price
$11.58
Market cap
$5.62 billion
AI score
54 / 100
Rating
Turnaround at a low multiple with leverage and execution risk
Trend status
Weak technical trend near the 52-week low, below both moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Albertsons operates the second-largest U.S. supermarket chain with roughly 2,250 stores across 34 states under banners including Albertsons, Safeway, Vons, Jewel-Osco, and ACME, plus pharmacy, fuel, digital, and retail media businesses. | High |
| Moat | Store density, local banner recognition, private labels, pharmacy relationships, a growing retail media business, and digital loyalty provide some advantages, but Walmart, Costco, Kroger, Aldi, and Amazon all compete for the same grocery dollar and conventional grocers are losing share. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Susan Morris is executing the ACI Edge restructuring that moves the company from 11 divisions to four regions and centralizes Center Store merchandising, while CFO Sharon McCollam announced her retirement on July 23, 2026 and a search is underway. Insiders bought stock after the drop. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue for the fiscal year ended February 2026 was $83.17 billion, up 3.46%, but net income fell to about $217 million, and trailing twelve-month net income is only about $66 million after the Q1 earnings reset and earlier impairment charges. | High |
| Valuation | ACI trades near 6.5x forward earnings, about 0.07x sales, about 6.6x EV/EBITDA, and near 10x price to free cash flow, with a free cash flow yield of about 10% and a dividend yield near 5.9%, but the trailing P/E above 90x reflects the impairment and earnings reset. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | ACI closed at $11.58 on July 31, 2026, near the 52-week low of $10.86, below its 50-day moving average near $14.44 and 200-day moving average near $16.68, with a 14-day RSI near 32. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is elevated: food demand is defensive, but total debt is about $15.7 billion, net debt to adjusted EBITDA was about 2.3x at the end of Q1, interest coverage is thin, market share losses continue, consumer spending is cautious, and litigation was announced after the July drop. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | The data set is good, but AI confidence should not be confused with return certainty in a leveraged grocer whose earnings guidance was just cut. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium-low. The stock offers a high free cash flow yield and dividend yield at a low multiple, but identical sales are negative, market share is under pressure, and the restructuring and CFO transition add execution risk. | Medium-low |
ACI AI stock forecast
The ACI AI stock forecast should be read as a valuation scenario, not a price promise. Using a July 31, 2026 reference close near $11.58 and fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS guidance of $1.75 to $1.85 with a consensus estimate near $1.79, the tested one-to-two-year range spans roughly $7.50 to $10.50 in a bearish case, $11.50 to $14.50 in a base case, and $14.50 to $17.50 in a bullish case. The range is wide because the market must decide whether the ACI Edge restructuring and value investments stabilize identical sales and margins, or whether market share losses and consumer caution keep the stock range-bound at a low multiple.
$14.50 to $17.50
More likely if identical sales stabilize and turn positive, the ACI Edge restructuring delivers the targeted roughly $200 million of annual benefits, adjusted EPS holds at or above the low end of the $1.75 to $1.85 guidance, retail media and digital keep growing, pharmacy trends stay healthy, and the stock re-rates toward 8x forward earnings.
$11.50 to $14.50
More likely if revenue drifts slightly lower with identical sales of -1.5% to -0.5%, adjusted EPS lands inside the $1.75 to $1.85 guidance, buybacks continue, and the stock holds a forward multiple near 6.5x to 8x, consistent with the analyst average targets near $13 to $14.50.
$7.50 to $10.50
More likely if market share losses to Walmart, Costco, and Aldi accelerate, lower-income consumer caution worsens, supplier cost inflation pressures margins, leverage stays high, litigation or the CFO transition creates overhang, and forward EPS falls below $1.70.
ACI AI technical analysis
ACI AI technical analysis is weak as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $11.58 on July 31, 2026, near the 52-week low of $10.86 and well below the 52-week high of $20.02. Price sits below the 50-day moving average near $14.44 and the 200-day moving average near $16.68, with a 14-day RSI near 32 that is close to oversold. The stock needs a decisive reclaim of resistance with volume confirmation before the technical setup becomes constructive.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $11.58 | StockAnalysis.com closing price for July 31, 2026, with market cap near $5.62 billion. |
| Near support | $10.86 | The 52-week low is the main support reference. Any close below this level would mark a new low. |
| Deeper support | $9.50 to $10.00 | If the 52-week low breaks, the next support zone would be based on the round $10 level and pre-2026 price action. |
| Near resistance | $12.50 to $13.50 | The analyst median target near $13 and the post-earnings consolidation zone frame the first overhead resistance. |
| Upper resistance | $14.44 to $16.68 | The 50-day moving average near $14.44 and the 200-day moving average near $16.68 form the heavier resistance band. |
| 50-day SMA | Est. $14.44 | StockAnalysis.com reports the 50-day moving average near $14.44, well above the current price. |
| 200-day SMA | Est. $16.68 | StockAnalysis.com reports the 200-day moving average near $16.68, confirming the longer-term downtrend. |
| Momentum | Weak, near oversold | The 14-day RSI near 32 reflects weakness after the July 23 earnings drop but is close to oversold territory. |
| Volume | Watch above 12M | Average volume over 20 days is near 10.2 million shares. A high-volume up day near support would signal potential accumulation. |
| Invalidation | Close below $10.86 | A decisive close below the 52-week low of $10.86 would weaken the chart further and shift attention toward the $9.50 to $10.00 zone. |
ACI AI trading strategy
The ACI AI trading strategy below is a research framework, not personal advice. It combines a defensive grocer thesis with rules for price confirmation, balance-sheet monitoring, and risk control. The high debt load and falling identical sales mean the stock may act more like a deleveraging and restructuring story than a steady compounder.
Wait for ACI to reclaim the $12.50 to $13.50 zone, then hold above the 50-day moving average near $14.44 with rising volume before treating the chart as a potential recovery.
Do not chase the post-earnings volatility. A close back below the reclaimed resistance zone or below $12.00 would invalidate the trend setup.
If ACI holds the $10.86 to $11.50 support area, compare the pullback against the fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS guidance of $1.75 to $1.85, the free cash flow yield near 10%, the dividend yield near 5.9%, and leverage trends.
A close below $10.86 or a further downward guidance revision would turn a support test into a weaker setup.
Track identical sales, adjusted EBITDA versus the $3.55 billion to $3.625 billion guidance, adjusted EPS versus the $1.75 to $1.85 range, net debt to adjusted EBITDA near 2.3x, free cash flow use between buybacks and debt reduction, retail media growth, the pace of ACI Edge changes, the CFO search, and litigation developments.
Keep the scenario model updated after quarterly earnings. A low P/E or P/S multiple does not remove the balance-sheet, market share, or restructuring risk.
Investment research summary
Albertsons monetizes recurring grocery trips across roughly 2,250 stores. Customers pay for food availability, pharmacy convenience, local banner trust, private-label value, and a growing retail media and digital ecosystem.
The moat comes from store footprint density, banner recognition, procurement scale, distribution, private labels, pharmacy relationships, and the Albertsons Media Collective retail media platform. It is real but narrow, and it is being tested as Walmart, Costco, and Aldi take grocery share.
The thesis fails if market share losses accelerate, consumer caution persists, supplier cost inflation squeezes margins, leverage stays high, the ACI Edge restructuring disrupts execution, or the CFO transition and litigation create uncertainty that keeps the multiple low.
CEO Susan Morris is leading the ACI Edge plan that moves from 11 divisions to four regions and centralizes Center Store merchandising, targeting about $200 million of annual benefits. CFO Sharon McCollam announced her retirement on July 23, 2026, and insiders including an executive vice president and the CEO bought stock after the drop.
Food retail is essential and recession-resistant, but the industry is consolidating and shifting toward value pricing, private label, retail media, digital, and AI-driven personalization. Scale increasingly matters, and conventional grocers face pressure from discounters, clubs, and delivery platforms.
ACI looks very cheap on forward P/E near 6.5x, price to sales near 0.07x, EV/EBITDA near 6.6x, free cash flow yield near 10%, and a dividend yield near 5.9%. But the earnings reset, high debt, and market share losses mean the low multiple carries real risk, so the margin of safety is only partial.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $11.58 at close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com ACI quote; Google Finance ACI quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market cap | $5.62 billion | StockAnalysis.com ACI quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 485.33 million, down about 9.35% year over year | StockAnalysis.com ACI statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 revenue | $83.17 billion for the fiscal year ended February 28, 2026, up 3.46% | StockAnalysis.com ACI financials | July 28, 2026 |
| FY2026 net income | Approximately $217.4 million, down about 77% from the prior year | StockAnalysis.com ACI financials | July 28, 2026 |
| TTM net income | Approximately $65.7 million as of the quarter ended June 20, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com ACI statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and equivalents | Approximately $307.9 million | StockAnalysis.com ACI statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Total debt | Approximately $15.70 billion | StockAnalysis.com ACI statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Net debt to adjusted EBITDA | About 2.3x at the end of Q1 fiscal 2027 | Albertsons Q1 fiscal 2027 earnings call via StockAnalysis.com transcript | July 23, 2026 |
| Free cash flow (TTM) | Approximately $564.3 million; free cash flow yield near 10% | StockAnalysis.com ACI statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Forward P/E | Approximately 6.48x | StockAnalysis.com ACI statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| EV/EBITDA | Approximately 6.55x | StockAnalysis.com ACI statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | $0.68 per share annualized, yield near 5.87%, ex-dividend date July 24, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com ACI statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS | $0.42 versus consensus of $0.53, a miss of about 21% | Google Finance ACI quote; CNBC earnings coverage | July 23, 2026 |
| Q1 fiscal 2027 identical sales | Down 0.8% year over year | Albertsons Q1 fiscal 2027 earnings release and call via CNBC and StockAnalysis.com | July 23, 2026 |
| FY2027 guidance | Adjusted EPS $1.75 to $1.85, adjusted EBITDA $3.55 billion to $3.625 billion, identical sales -1.5% to -0.5%, cut on July 23, 2026 | Albertsons Q1 fiscal 2027 earnings release via CNBC | July 23, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | 19 analysts, consensus Hold, average target $14.50, median $13, range $10 to $24 | StockAnalysis.com ACI forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $10.86 to $20.02 | StockAnalysis.com ACI quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | Approximately 50.7 million shares, about 10.45% of shares outstanding, 6.03 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com ACI statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $14.44, 200-day near $16.68; 14-day RSI near 32 | StockAnalysis.com ACI statistics | August 3, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of August 3, 2026, with the price reference at the July 31, 2026 close, and they can be wrong if Albertsons results, consumer spending, competition, market share, restructuring execution, debt costs, litigation, or market sentiment change.
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