Acadia Healthcare Company research snapshot
ACHC AI stock analysis currently reads Acadia Healthcare as the largest stand-alone behavioral healthcare company in the United States, with 279 facilities and roughly 12,600 beds across 40 states and Puerto Rico serving more than 84,000 patients daily. On August 3, 2026, the stock closed at $30.59, giving a verified market capitalization of about $2.85 billion on about 93.1 million shares. Q2 2026 revenue of $865.8 million was flat year over year but up 2.8% after normalizing for prior-period supplemental payments, and adjusted EPS of $0.38 beat the $0.35 consensus, yet adjusted EBITDA fell 26% to $149.2 million on a $28.6 million rise in professional and general liability reserves. The stock still dropped about 13% after the July 28 report before recovering. The ACHC AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges rather than a single price target because behavioral health earnings depend on same-facility growth, payor policy, professional liability costs, litigation outcomes, and leverage that can change the trajectory quickly.
Current price
$30.59
Market cap
$2.85 billion verified market cap on about 93.1 million shares
AI score
55 / 100
Rating
Largest U.S. stand-alone behavioral health provider in an operational turnaround that still carries professional liability, litigation, and leverage overhang
Trend status
Up about 108% year to date and 45% over 52 weeks; the stock dropped 13% after July 28 Q2 results but recovered above the 50-day moving average by the August 3 close
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Acadia operates the largest U.S. stand-alone behavioral health network. Revenue comes from acute inpatient psychiatric care, specialty treatment facilities, comprehensive treatment centers (methadone clinics), and residential treatment facilities, with acute care contributing $494.6 million of the $865.8 million of Q2 2026 revenue. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from national scale in a fragmented market, the largest U.S. methadone clinic network, certificate-of-need protections in some states, and referral and joint-venture relationships. Depth is limited because payors and regulators set rates, competitors can build or buy, and the 2024 press investigations showed reputation can be damaged quickly. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Debbie Osteen returned in January 2026 and interim CFO David Duckworth was appointed in April 2026. The team opened two joint-venture acute hospitals in Q2, added 240 beds, generated $124 million of free cash flow, repaid $113 million of debt, and raised 2026 guidance. Both top roles carry a short-tenure key-person risk. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 revenue was $865.8 million, flat year over year but up 2.8% normalized, with same-facility patient days up 0.8%. Adjusted EBITDA of $149.2 million fell 26% year over year mainly on a $28.6 million professional liability reserve increase, while adjusted EPS of $0.38 beat consensus. Operating cash flow rose to $162.1 million and net leverage stayed near 4.1x adjusted EBITDA. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $30.59, ACHC trades at about 18.4x forward adjusted EPS near the $1.45 to $1.60 guidance midpoint, about 0.85x sales, 1.40x book, and roughly 8.7x the 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance midpoint of $602.5 million. The multiples no longer look distressed after the 108% year-to-date rally. | Medium |
| Technical trend | Price sits above the 50-day moving average of $28.17 and the 200-day moving average of $21.94 after the recovery from $11.43. The stock made a 52-week high of $35.83 before the July post-earnings pullback, and the relative strength index is near a neutral 50. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks include a $28.6 million professional liability reserve increase with 2026 liability costs now trending near $130 to $135 million, a new securities class action that survived a motion to dismiss in July 2026, a March 2026 data security incident, ongoing DOJ inquiries, net leverage near 4.1x, New York Medicaid changes hitting Pennsylvania facilities, and heavy bed-expansion capital spending. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is medium-high for Q2 2026 adjusted financials, guidance, market data, and analyst targets. Return confidence is lower because short interest of about 23% of shares outstanding and unresolved liability and litigation costs can drive large two-way swings. | Medium data confidence |
| Investment certainty | ACHC has a credible operational recovery thesis backed by improving cash flow, debt reduction, and raised guidance, but investment certainty at $30.59 is low-medium because the stock already prices much of the improvement and professional liability and legal outcomes remain uncertain. | Low-medium |
ACHC AI stock forecast
The ACHC AI stock forecast is scenario-based because Acadia is in a turnaround and earnings depend on same-facility growth, payor mix, professional liability costs, litigation outcomes, leverage, and valuation multiples. Using the $30.59 price reference and the updated adjusted EPS guidance midpoint near $1.50, the scenarios below describe where the stock could trade over the next 12 to 18 months if each set of conditions holds.
$48 to $62
More likely if same-facility growth stays near 3% or better on a normalized basis, professional liability reserves stop rising, litigation resolves or stays contained, leverage falls below 3.5x, free cash flow keeps funding debt paydown, and the market re-rates ACHC toward a mid-20s forward multiple.
$30 to $40
More likely if Acadia delivers the updated 2026 guidance of $1.45 to $1.60 adjusted EPS, keeps net leverage near 4x, professional liability costs stay in the disclosed range, and the stock holds a low-20s forward multiple near the current consensus target of about $33.
$15 to $22
More likely if professional liability reserves rise again, the new securities class action produces large settlements, New York Medicaid or OBBBA changes spread to more states, same-facility revenue turns negative, or leverage rises above 4.5x.
ACHC AI technical analysis
ACHC AI technical analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff shows a strong recovery trend with a recent volatility event. The August 3, 2026 close was $30.59, above the 50-day moving average of $28.17 and well above the 200-day moving average of $21.94. The 52-week range is about $11.43 to $35.83, and the relative strength index is near a neutral 50 after the July pullback. Average volume is roughly 3.1 to 3.2 million shares, with short interest around 23% of shares outstanding.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $30.59 | August 3, 2026 closing price from market data cross-checks. |
| 50-day moving average | $28.17 | Price recovered above this level by August 3 after the post-earnings dip toward $27.35 on July 29. |
| 200-day moving average | $21.94 | Price is far above this level after the recovery from the $11.43 low. A pullback here would be a major trend challenge. |
| Immediate support | $27 to $28.5 | This band brackets the July 29 post-earnings low near $27.35 and the 50-day moving average area. |
| Deeper support | $24 to $26 | This area covers intermediate consolidation between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages and would be a meaningful trend test. |
| Near resistance | $31.5 to $32 | This covers the price level just before the July 28 earnings gap and the round $32 area that capped early rally attempts. |
| Next resistance | $33.5 to $36 | This covers the analyst target cluster near $33.4 to $34 and the 52-week high of $35.83. |
| Momentum | Neutral to positive after the July pullback, with RSI near 50 | Momentum stalled at the $35.83 high and reset during the earnings drop; a push through $32 with volume would rebuild the uptrend. |
| Volume | Average volume near 3.1 to 3.2 million shares | Earnings, legal news, and professional liability disclosures drive the most actionable volume spikes. |
| Volatility | Elevated around earnings, legal filings, and payor policy news | Short interest of about 23% of shares outstanding can amplify moves in either direction. |
| Invalidation | Close below $27, then below $24 | A sustained break under $27 puts the 50-day moving average support at risk. A break under $24 challenges the medium-term recovery trend. |
ACHC AI trading strategy
The ACHC AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects chart levels with same-facility growth, professional liability costs, litigation developments, bed openings, free cash flow, and leverage.
Watch for ACHC to hold above $28 and push through the $31.5 to $32 resistance zone with healthy volume, supported by clean Q3 results and no new liability or legal surprises.
A failed breakout followed by a close below $27 should reduce trend confidence, especially if professional liability reserves rise again or the securities class action escalates.
If ACHC pulls back toward $27 to $28.5 without a fundamental reset, compare the lower price with forward adjusted EPS, free cash flow, net leverage trends, and peer valuations versus UHS and THC.
Do not treat every pullback as automatically attractive. High short interest and pending litigation can create false bottoms in behavioral health stocks.
Track same-facility revenue growth, patient days, revenue per patient day, adjusted EBITDA margin, professional and general liability costs, bed additions, joint-venture openings, net leverage, free cash flow, and litigation disclosures.
Position sizing should reflect that ACHC at $30.59 already prices significant recovery. The next catalysts are Q3 2026 results, any professional liability reserve updates, and litigation milestones.
Investment research summary
Patients, families, and payers fund Acadia Healthcare because behavioral health treatment requires specialized facilities, licensed clinical staff, and regulated care that most general hospitals do not provide at scale. The business converts that need into per-day or per-case revenue across acute inpatient, residential, specialty, and outpatient settings.
The moat rests on national scale, the largest U.S. methadone clinic chain, certificate-of-need protections in some states, referral relationships, and joint ventures with health systems. It is narrow because payors control rates, competitors can build or acquire, and the 2024 press investigations showed reputation risk is real.
The thesis fails if professional liability reserves keep rising above the current $130 to $135 million 2026 trend, if the new securities class action produces large settlements, if New York Medicaid or OBBBA changes spread, if the data security incident creates new costs, or if leverage stays above 4.5x with heavy bed-expansion spending.
CEO Debbie Osteen returned in January 2026 and interim CFO David Duckworth joined in April 2026. The team has delivered measurable progress: two joint-venture hospitals opened, 240 beds added, $124 million of free cash flow, $113 million of debt repaid, and raised 2026 guidance. Short tenure in both top roles is the main continuity risk.
Behavioral health demand is a structural long-term need driven by rising awareness, insurance coverage, and the opioid crisis. The offset is that payors push toward lower-cost outpatient care, state supplemental payment programs are uneven, and Medicaid reform under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act adds uncertainty.
At $30.59 and about 18.4x forward adjusted EPS near the guidance midpoint of $1.50, ACHC already prices a successful turnaround. Margin of safety improves if leverage drops below 3.5x, professional liability costs stabilize, litigation resolves, and the stock pulls back toward the mid-20s support zone.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price reference | $30.59 close on August 3, 2026 | Yahoo Finance and StockAnalysis market data cross-checks | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $2.85 billion on about 93.1 million shares | StockAnalysis statistics via S&P Global Market Intelligence | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue | $865.8 million, flat year over year, up 2.8% normalized for prior-period supplemental payments | Acadia Healthcare Q2 2026 earnings release | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted EPS | $0.38 adjusted EPS, beating the $0.35 consensus; adjusted net income of $35.1 million | Acadia Healthcare Q2 2026 earnings release and MarketBeat | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA | $149.2 million, down from $201.8 million, including a $28.6 million professional and general liability reserve increase offset by a $26.1 million Florida supplemental payment benefit | Acadia Healthcare Q2 2026 earnings release | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 cash flow and balance sheet | $162.1 million operating cash flow, $38.6 million capital expenditures, $124 million free cash flow, $113 million of debt repaid, $171.3 million cash, and net leverage of 4.1x adjusted EBITDA at June 30, 2026 | Acadia Healthcare Q2 2026 earnings release | August 4, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance (updated) | Revenue $3.40B to $3.45B, adjusted EBITDA $590M to $615M, adjusted EPS $1.45 to $1.60, operating cash flow $350M to $400M, and capital expenditures $235M to $255M | Acadia Healthcare Q2 2026 earnings release | August 4, 2026 |
| Facility footprint | 279 behavioral health facilities with about 12,600 beds across 40 states and Puerto Rico, serving more than 84,000 patients daily | Acadia Healthcare company description | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week price range | $11.43 to $35.83 | Yahoo Finance and market data cross-checks | August 4, 2026 |
| Price and moving averages | 50-day moving average $28.17, 200-day moving average $21.94, RSI near 50, beta 0.64 | StockAnalysis statistics via S&P Global Market Intelligence | August 4, 2026 |
| Forward valuation snapshot | Forward P/E near 18.4x, price-to-sales 0.85x, price-to-book 1.40x, enterprise value $5.26 billion | StockAnalysis statistics via S&P Global Market Intelligence | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Consensus Buy with an average price target of $33.39 from 14 analysts, range $14.50 to $41.00 | StockAnalysis and Zacks analyst data | August 4, 2026 |
| Securities class action status | $179 million securities class action settlement received final court approval in April 2026 | Court approval report via Bloomberg Law and RGSLaw | August 4, 2026 |
| New securities class action | A separate securities class action alleging misleading statements about admission, detention, and billing practices survived a motion to dismiss in July 2026 | Robbins LLP notice via Morningstar | August 4, 2026 |
| Data security incident | Unauthorized access to an employee email and SharePoint account detected March 25, 2026, involving some patient information | Acadia Healthcare notice of data security incident | August 4, 2026 |
This ACHC AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a rating, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 4, 2026 and can be wrong if earnings, professional liability costs, litigation outcomes, payor policy, management changes, leverage, or market sentiment change.
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