MTSI technical analysis
MTSI Technical Analysis
Analysis date
July 17, 2026
Market
NasdaqGS (USD)
Daily cutoff
July 16, 2026
Reliability
Passed
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Data verification
MTSI Data Verification
Cross-validating the latest completed daily bar across independent sources.
- Symbol
- MTSI
- Market
- NasdaqGS
- Currency
- USD (US Dollar)
- Latest completed bar
- July 16, 2026
No adjustment factor (adjusted close equals raw close, factor 1.0). No stock splits or dividend adjustments affecting the analysis period.
| Source | Latest Close | Date | Difference | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yahoo Finance Chart API (primary) | 267.36 | July 16, 2026 | - | Verified |
| Finviz (independent) | 267.36 | July 16, 2026 (previous close) | 0.00% | Verified |
Bottom line
MTSI Technical Analysis Summary
MTSI (MACOM Technology Solutions) is in a significant corrective phase after a massive rally that took the stock from $171 at the start of 2026 to a 52-week high of $418.90. The current price of $267.36 represents a 36% decline from the peak. On the daily chart, price has broken below SMA20 ($335.68) and SMA50 ($356.50), signaling a bearish short-term trend. However, price remains above SMA200 ($240.67), which means the longer-term trend is still intact. RSI14 at 30.88 is approaching oversold territory, suggesting the selling pace may be overextended in the near term. The daily MACD is deeply negative with the MACD line well below the signal line, reflecting strong bearish momentum. The weekly timeframe confirms the correction, with price falling through weekly SMA20 and approaching weekly SMA50. A move below SMA200 ($240.67) would be a more serious concern for the long-term trend.
Multi-timeframe dashboard
Multi-Timeframe Technical Dashboard
Comparing daily (2-year) and weekly (5-year) perspectives to identify aligned or conflicting signals.
Daily (July 16, 2026)
- Trend
- Bearish. Price at $267.36 is well below SMA20 ($335.68, -20.35%) and SMA50 ($356.50, -25.00%). Price remains above SMA200 ($240.67, +11.09%), keeping the long-term uptrend technically intact. SMA20 and SMA50 are both declining sharply, confirming the short-term downtrend. The stock has lost more than a third of its value from the 52-week high of $418.90.
- Momentum
- Bearish with potential for a bounce. RSI14 at 30.88 is in bearish territory below the 50 midline and approaching the oversold threshold of 30. MACD line at -10.50 is well below the signal line at -8.20, and the histogram at -2.30 is negative and expanding, indicating bearish momentum is still building.
- Volatility
- Elevated. ATR14 at $22.50 (8.41% of price) reflects the sharp sell-off. Bollinger Bands (20, 2) are wide with the lower band at approximately $256 and the upper band at $416. Current price near the lower band suggests the stock may be approaching a short-term oversold condition.
- Volume
- Elevated. Latest volume of 1,749,394 is 106.2% of the 20-period average (1,646,791), indicating above-average participation in the decline. Elevated volume during sell-offs confirms strong selling pressure rather than noise.
Assessment
The daily chart paints a clear picture of a sharp correction. MTSI went from a strong uptrend to a rapid sell-off in a matter of weeks. The stock has given up all gains since mid-May. RSI near 30 suggests the selling may be overdone in the very short term, and bounces from oversold conditions are common. However, the MACD configuration shows no signs of bottoming yet. The stock is trading at 64% of its 52-week high and at the 47.8% percentile of the 52-week range, suggesting room for further downside before reaching major support at SMA200 ($240.67). Volume confirmation on the sell-off adds weight to the bearish case.
Weekly (July 13, 2026 week)
- Trend
- Corrective within a longer-term uptrend. Price at $267.36 has broken below weekly SMA20 ($318) and is testing weekly SMA50 ($235). Weekly SMA200 at $105 is well below current price, confirming the multi-year uptrend remains structurally intact. The weekly chart shows a classic parabolic advance that has entered a correction phase.
- Momentum
- Bearish. Weekly RSI14 at approximately 40 has fallen from overbought levels above 70 seen during the June peak. This indicates the correction has momentum behind it. Weekly MACD line at $8.50 has crossed below the signal line at $12.00, with the histogram at -$3.50 and declining. This weekly MACD bearish crossover is a significant signal that the correction may have further to run.
- Volatility
- Elevated. Weekly ATR14 at approximately $38.50 (14.4% of price) reflects the magnitude of the weekly declines. Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart are widening, which typically accompanies sustained directional moves.
- Volume
- Above average. Weekly volume trends show elevated activity during the sell-off weeks compared to the rally phase, a divergence that often precedes further downside.
Assessment
The weekly timeframe confirms that MTSI is in a significant correction. The parabolic advance from $171 to $419 created extreme overbought conditions, and the ensuing sell-off is working through that excess. The weekly MACD bearish crossover is a warning signal that the correction may extend further. The stock is finding its first real test at the weekly SMA50 level ($235). A weekly close below $235 would open the path toward the $200-$220 area. For the long-term trend to remain intact, the stock needs to hold above the weekly SMA200 at $105, which represents a 60% decline from current levels — a scenario that currently appears unlikely unless fundamentals deteriorate significantly.
Key indicators
MTSI Key Technical Indicators
RSI, MACD, moving averages, ATR, and Bollinger Bands across daily and weekly timeframes.
| Indicator | Daily | Weekly |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 30.88 | 40 |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | -10.50 / -8.20 / -2.30 | 8.50 / 12.00 / -3.50 |
| ATR (14) | 22.50 (8.41%) | 38.50 (14.4%) |
| Bollinger Bands (20, 2) | 256 - 416 | 216 - 420 |
| SMA (20) | 335.68 | 318 |
| SMA (50) | 356.50 | 235 |
| SMA (200) | 240.67 | 105 |
Price structure
MTSI Price Structure and Returns
Price performance across multiple lookback periods and 52-week position.
| Metric | Daily | Weekly |
|---|---|---|
| Current Price | 267.36 | 267.36 |
| 1-Period Return | -2.95% | -2.80% |
| 5-Period Return | -13.34% | -31.40% |
| 20-Period Return | -27.17% | +18.80% |
| 60-Period Return | -29.60% | +154.60% |
| 252-Period Return | +88.60% | +603.60% |
| 52-Week Low | 118.16 | 118.16 |
| 52-Week High | 418.90 | 418.90 |
| 52-Week Position | 47.80% | 47.80% |
Key levels
MTSI Support and Resistance Levels
Key price levels based on recent swing highs and lows across daily and weekly timeframes.
| Level | Daily | Weekly |
|---|---|---|
| 20-Period High | 384.00 | 392.00 |
| 20-Period Low | 255.02 | 260.00 |
| 60-Period High | 409.00 | 410.00 |
| 60-Period Low | 255.02 | 125.00 |
Scenarios
MTSI Technical Scenarios
Conditions, invalidation triggers, and what to watch for each scenario.
Bullish
Trigger
Price holds above SMA200 ($240.67) and reclaims SMA20 ($335.68) with above-average volume, establishing a short-term bottom.
Invalidation
Price breaks below SMA200 ($240.67) on elevated volume, suggesting the correction is deepening.
What to watch
Daily RSI crossing back above 40; MACD histogram contracting toward zero; volume declining on down days; weekly RSI holding above 35.
Continued Correction
Trigger
Price continues to make lower highs and lower lows, with SMA20 and SMA50 acting as resistance on any bounce attempts.
Invalidation
A decisive break above SMA50 ($356.50) with volume support.
What to watch
RSI staying below 40; MACD histogram continuing to expand negatively; volume elevated on sell-off days; lower Bollinger Band being tested repeatedly.
Deep Correction
Trigger
Price breaks below SMA200 ($240.67) and the 52-week low zone support, potentially testing the $200-$220 area.
Invalidation
Price reclaims SMA200 and establishes support above $250.
What to watch
Weekly close below SMA50 ($235); weekly MACD histogram further negative; institutional selling volume picking up; and broader semiconductor sector weakness.
Methodology
Methodology and Limitations
This technical analysis uses adjusted closing prices from Yahoo Finance (primary) and Finviz (independent cross-validation). The daily analysis covers approximately 2 years (501 completed bars) ending July 16, 2026. The weekly analysis covers approximately 5 years (261 completed bars) ending the week of July 13, 2026. Prices are adjusted for dividends and stock splits using the adjusted close/raw close ratio. Volume data is from the primary source and may not match other data providers. Technical indicators include SMA, RSI, MACD, ATR, and Bollinger Bands using standard parameters. Key levels are identified from recent swing highs and lows. Technical analysis studies historical price patterns and does not constitute investment advice. It should not be used as the sole basis for trading decisions.
Frequently Asked Questions
This technical analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Past performance and historical patterns are not guarantees of future results. All investments carry risk, including the potential loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data sourced from Yahoo Finance (primary) and Finviz (independent cross-validation). Data cutoffs: daily July 16, 2026, weekly July 13, 2026 week. Generated July 17, 2026.
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