Woodside Energy Group Ltd research snapshot
WDS AI stock analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff reads Woodside Energy Group as a project delivery story that is also now a price momentum story. The stock closed at $23.46 on July 31, 2026, up about 37.5% over the prior 52 weeks, with a market capitalization of $43.97 billion. The Q2 2026 report on July 29, 2026 showed operating revenue up 28% to $4,185 million on an average realized price of $85 per barrel of oil equivalent, up 35% quarter over quarter, even though production fell 9% to 41.3 MMboe after Pluto Train 1 planned maintenance and cyclone impacts. Full-year 2026 production guidance was narrowed to 174 to 185 MMboe. Scarborough reached 98% completion with first LNG still targeted for Q4 2026 and first gas achieved after quarter end, Trion reached 64% completion targeting 2028 first oil, and Louisiana LNG reached 28% completion targeting 2029 first LNG. The caution is that third-party trailing free cash flow is negative near -$782 million because capital expenditure ran ahead of operating cash flow, net debt including leases is about $9.3 billion, analyst consensus is Hold with an average target roughly flat to the price, and energy prices plus project delivery still drive outcomes. The page presents scenario ranges, not a price promise, and is for information only.
Current price
$23.46 at the July 31, 2026 close
Market cap
$43.97 billion
AI score
64 / 100
Rating
Project delivery and price momentum, offset by negative free cash flow and a flat analyst target
Trend status
Bullish: above the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Woodside sells LNG, pipeline gas, crude oil, condensate, natural gas liquids, and ammonia-linked output from a geographically diverse upstream portfolio. Customers pay for reliable energy supply and contracted or market-priced hydrocarbons. | High |
| Moat | Long-life resource positions, operating LNG infrastructure, project-development expertise, permits, customer contracts, and access to gas markets are meaningful barriers, but they do not remove commodity-price exposure. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Liz Westcott and the board are executing on a multi-project program: Scarborough at 98% complete with first gas achieved, Trion at 64%, Louisiana LNG at 28%, Browse pre-emption exercised, Gippsland operatorship assumed on July 1, 2026, and a Chevron asset swap targeted for Q4 2026. The open test is converting construction progress into positive free cash flow. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 operating revenue rose 28% to $4,185 million with realized prices up 35% to $85 per boe, while production fell 9% to 41.3 MMboe and full-year guidance narrowed to 174 to 185 MMboe. Trailing free cash flow is negative near -$782 million after about $8.0 billion of trailing capital expenditure. | Medium |
| Valuation | At the July 31, 2026 close of $23.46, WDS trades near 16.2x trailing EPS, 13.0x forward EPS, 3.4x sales, and 1.1x book value with a 4.60% dividend yield, in line with an oil and gas producer mid-cycle rather than a deep value or a growth premium. | Medium |
| Technical trend | WDS closed at $23.46 on July 31, 2026, above its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, with a 14-day RSI near 68.5 and an ADX near 28.9 confirming a strong uptrend. The 52-week high of $25.19 is the next reference overhead. | High |
| Risk level | Risk is high because WDS combines global commodity exposure with multi-year project construction, negative free cash flow, net debt including leases of about $9.3 billion, fiscal and regulatory uncertainty, currency moves, and energy-transition policy risk. | High |
| AI confidence | Reported financial and operating facts are well documented. Price forecasts are materially less reliable because they need assumptions about commodities, execution, taxes, capital expenditure, currencies, and valuation. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | WDS offers an income and LNG-growth case with improving execution momentum, but it is not a simple defensive compounder. A margin of safety must account for cycle risk, negative free cash flow, and the cash demands of projects that are not yet producing. | Medium-low |
WDS AI stock forecast
The WDS AI stock forecast uses a three-year scenario calculation around the July 31, 2026 close of $23.46 and consensus FY2026 EPS of about $1.72. The audited framework produces a bearish area near $13.50, a base area near $24, and a bullish area near $32 before dividends, using EPS of about $1.35, $1.95, and $2.20 with exit multiples of about 10x, 12.5x, and 14.5x. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
$29 to $34
More likely if LNG and oil realizations stay supportive, Scarborough ships first LNG in Q4 2026 as planned, Trion and Louisiana LNG stay on budget, capital expenditure falls as Scarborough completes, free cash flow turns positive, and the market accepts a mid-teens earnings multiple.
$22 to $27
More likely if EPS recovers toward the $1.72 consensus and grows at a low single-digit to mid single-digit rate, projects stay on schedule, LNG markets are balanced, and the market holds a multiple near 12x to 13x.
$12 to $16
More likely if realized prices fall, construction or commissioning slips, costs rise, fiscal or regulatory conditions worsen, free cash flow stays negative, or the market re-rates cyclical energy earnings near 10x.
WDS AI technical analysis
WDS AI technical analysis is bullish as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $23.46 on July 31, 2026, above its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, with a 14-day RSI near 68.5 and a 14-day ADX near 28.9 confirming a trending move. The 52-week high of $25.19 is the next overhead reference. Levels are reference points, not predictions, and should be refreshed with current chart data before a trade.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $23.46 | StockAnalysis real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close; market cap reported at $43.97 billion on about 1.90 billion shares. |
| Near support | $21.20 to $21.50 | The 20-day moving average was near $21.48 and the 50-day near $21.23 on July 31, 2026, forming the first pullback support zone. |
| Deeper support | $19.50 to $19.70 | The 200-day moving average was near $19.60. A close below this zone would weaken the longer-term uptrend. |
| Near resistance | $24.00 to $25.19 | The 52-week high of $25.19 is the main overhead reference, with minor resistance near $24.00. |
| 20-day moving average | $21.48 | Barchart reported the 20-day moving average near $21.48 on July 31, 2026, above the 50-day and confirming short-term strength. |
| 50-day moving average | $21.23 | Barchart and StockAnalysis both reported the 50-day moving average near $21.23 on July 31, 2026. |
| 100-day moving average | $22.23 | Barchart reported the 100-day moving average near $22.23 on July 31, 2026, below the current price. |
| 200-day moving average | $19.60 | Barchart and StockAnalysis both reported the 200-day trend line near $19.60, well below the current price. |
| Momentum | RSI 68.53, ADX 28.93 | The 14-day RSI near 68.53 is strong but not yet overbought, while the 9-day RSI near 74.14 signals short-term stretch. ADX near 28.93 with +DI near 40.76 versus -DI near 16.21 confirms a trending up move. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 750,000 shares | Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 750,000 shares on July 31, 2026, useful for checking breakout quality. |
| Volatility | Elevated, near 35% | Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 35%, so position sizing should account for larger swings around reports, commodity moves, and guidance. |
| Invalidation | Close below $21.20 | A decisive close below the 50-day moving average near $21.23 would weaken the short-term uptrend; a close below the 200-day near $19.60 would turn it bearish. |
WDS AI trading strategy
The WDS AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for trading and watching the project delivery story. It is not personal advice and should be paired with fresh chart data, filings, commodity prices, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch for WDS to hold above the 50-day moving average near $21.20 and to build volume on a move toward the $25.19 high, with realized prices, production guidance, Scarborough milestones, and project spending aligned with company disclosures.
A daily close below the 50-day moving average or a failed attempt at the 52-week high should trigger a stop and review.
If WDS pulls back toward the $19.60 to $21.50 support cluster without new price or project damage, compare the price reaction with half-year results on August 25, 2026, production guidance, free cash flow, and Scarborough commissioning news before acting.
Do not average down solely on dividend yield or a low PE when a lower price reflects a commodity shock, cost escalation, delay, negative free cash flow, or weaker long-run demand assumptions.
Track realized prices, production volumes, LNG contract and hub exposure, Scarborough commissioning, Trion and Louisiana LNG capital commitments, free cash flow, net debt including leases, dividends, fiscal terms, and emissions or permitting developments.
Use position sizing that recognizes event risk. A capital-intensive producer can have a modest PE while future cash flow remains exposed to price and execution changes.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Woodside for LNG, gas, oil, condensate, natural gas liquids, and related energy supply. Value comes from owning and operating resources and infrastructure that can deliver reliable volumes into regional and global markets.
Woodside has scarce resource positions, LNG operating capability, development expertise, approvals, commercial relationships, and a portfolio that spans Australia, the Gulf of America, Senegal, Mexico, and the United States. Those advantages are real, but commodity markets still set much of the economics.
The thesis can fail through a sustained fall in LNG or oil realizations, construction delays or overruns, operational outages, persistently negative free cash flow, a weaker balance sheet, higher taxes or royalties, carbon and permitting constraints, cost inflation, partner disputes, or a lower terminal value for hydrocarbon assets.
The management test is capital allocation across base production, Scarborough, Trion, Louisiana LNG, Beaumont New Ammonia, dividends, and balance-sheet resilience. The important evidence is cash return on completed projects, not only construction progress, and Q2 2026 showed delivery pace but not yet free cash flow.
LNG can benefit from energy-security demand and gas-for-coal switching in some markets, while long-term decarbonization, carbon policy, renewables, electrification, and oversupply risk can constrain returns. Woodside kept about 30% gas-hub exposure in 2026 guidance, which adds market sensitivity.
The stock trades near 16.2x trailing earnings and 13.0x forward earnings after a 37.5% 52-week rally. Trailing EPS does not capture the cash required for multiple projects or the cyclicality of realized prices, and the consensus target is roughly flat to the price, so a margin of safety requires conservatism on both earnings and the terminal multiple.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| WDS price and market cap | $23.46 at the July 31, 2026 close, market cap $43.97 billion, shares outstanding about 1.90 billion | StockAnalysis real-time quote and statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 operating revenue | $4,185 million, up 28% quarter over quarter, with an average realized price of $85 per boe up 35% | Woodside Q2 2026 report | July 29, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 production | 41.3 MMboe (454 Mboe/d), down 9% quarter over quarter and 18% year over year, with sales volumes of 48.0 MMboe | Woodside Q2 2026 report | July 29, 2026 |
| 2026 full-year guidance | Production narrowed to 174 to 185 MMboe, capital expenditure $4.0 billion to $4.5 billion, production costs $1.5 billion to $1.8 billion, gas hub exposure about 30% | Woodside Q2 2026 report | July 29, 2026 |
| Project status | Scarborough 98% complete with first gas achieved and first LNG targeted Q4 2026, Trion 64% complete targeting 2028 first oil, Louisiana LNG 28% complete targeting 2029 first LNG | Woodside Q2 2026 report | July 29, 2026 |
| Portfolio actions | Browse pre-emption of the CNPC 10.67% interest for $225 million at completion plus a $175 million contingent payment, Alcoa domestic gas sale of 31.1 PJ for 2027 to 2030, Gippsland Basin operatorship from ExxonMobil effective July 1, 2026, Chevron asset swap targeted Q4 2026 | Woodside Q2 2026 report | July 29, 2026 |
| Balance sheet and liquidity | Liquidity about $8.2 billion, net debt including lease liabilities about $9.3 billion, gearing about 21% as of June 30, 2026, after repaying a $600 million syndicated term loan early | Woodside Q2 2026 report | July 29, 2026 |
| FY2025 financials | Revenue $12.98 billion, net income $2.72 billion, EPS $1.42, free cash flow -$782 million | StockAnalysis financials and statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 cash flow | Operating cash flow $7.19 billion, capital expenditure -$7.97 billion, free cash flow -$782 million | StockAnalysis cash flow statement | August 2, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | Cash and equivalents $5.71 billion, total debt $13.72 billion, net cash -$8.01 billion as of December 31, 2025 | StockAnalysis balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation | Trailing PE 16.18, forward PE 13.03, PS ratio 3.39, PB ratio 1.10, EV/EBITDA 6.16 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Dividend | Annual dividend $1.08 per share, dividend yield 4.60%, payout ratio about 76% | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | 12 analysts polled by S&P Global, consensus Hold, average target $32.99 in Australian dollars, low $24.93 and high $44.44, roughly flat to the A$32.95 ASX price | StockAnalysis ASX forecast (S&P Global) | July 30, 2026 |
| Recent analyst updates | Morgan Stanley Hold $28.00, Ord Minnett Sell $24.75 to $25.25, Citi Hold $29.50 to $31.25, Macquarie Buy $34.30, Morgans Hold $33.40 to $32.50, all in Australian dollars | StockAnalysis ASX forecast latest forecasts | July 30, 2026 |
| Short interest | 3.70 million shares short, 0.19% of shares outstanding, about 4.0 days to cover | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 20-day SMA near $21.48, 50-day SMA near $21.23, 100-day SMA near $22.23, 200-day SMA near $19.60, 14-day RSI near 68.53, 14-day ADX near 28.93, 14-day historical volatility near 35% | Barchart and StockAnalysis technical snapshots | August 2, 2026 |
This WDS AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots, and third-party data as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, project news, commodity moves, or macro conditions. Verify current market, company, and personal financial information with qualified sources before making an investment decision.
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