Venture Global, Inc. research snapshot
VG AI stock analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff reads Venture Global as an LNG growth story that raised its full-year guidance, with the stock at $13.38 at the July 31, 2026 close and a market capitalization near $33.24 billion, re-verified during this full refresh as $13.38 times 2.48 billion shares with a 0.17% deviation. The Q1 2026 report, released May 12, 2026, delivered revenue of $4.6 billion up 59%, net income attributable to common stockholders of $488 million up 23%, and a record 481 TBtu of LNG sold across 130 cargoes, and management raised 2026 consolidated adjusted EBITDA guidance to $8.2 billion to $8.5 billion from $5.2 billion to $5.8 billion, with 84% of available 2026 cargoes already sold at a weighted average liquefaction fee of $4.51 per MMBtu. The company announced the final investment decision for CP2 Phase II and closed an $8.6 billion project financing, bringing total CP2 financing to $20.7 billion, and signed more than 3 MTPA of five-year supply agreements including Vitol and TotalEnergies. Iran war driven LNG prices lifted second-quarter liquefaction fees about 69% quarter over quarter per Reuters on July 8, 2026, ahead of the Q2 2026 earnings release scheduled for August 11, 2026. Offsetting this is a balance sheet with total debt near $37.3 billion, net debt of about $35.3 billion, negative trailing free cash flow of $6.9 billion, an Altman Z-score of 1.07, and analyst targets that range from $13 to $22 around a $16.37 average. The page presents a scenario framework, not a certain price prediction, and is for information only.
Current price
$13.38
Market cap
$33.24 billion
AI score
66 / 100
Rating
Raised-guidance LNG growth story with heavy debt and negative free cash flow
Trend status
Improving trend with price above the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Venture Global develops and operates Gulf Coast LNG terminals including Calcasieu Pass, Plaquemines, and CP2, plus pipelines, shipping, and LNG sales operations, with TTM revenue near $15.47 billion up 139.8%. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Permitted sites, pipelines, large capital commitments, customer contracts with 84% of available 2026 cargoes sold, operating know-how, and modular construction create barriers, but LNG is a capital-intensive global market rather than a frictionless monopoly. | Medium |
| Management | Co-founders Michael Sabel and Robert Pender retain control through Class B voting rights. Their rapid buildout record now includes CP2 Phase II FID, an $8.6 billion project financing, a raised 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $8.2 billion to $8.5 billion, and a $1.75 billion Calcasieu refinancing, while capital allocation, counterparties, governance, and debt discipline remain central tests. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $13.769 billion and net income attributable to common stockholders was $2.260 billion, both cross-validated with 0.00% deviation. Q1 2026 revenue was $4.599 billion up 59%, net income was $488 million up 23%, and LNG volumes set a record of 481 TBtu across 130 cargoes, but construction spending kept trailing free cash flow negative near $6.9 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $13.38, the stock trades near 14.86x trailing EPS, 8.90x forward EPS, 2.15x sales, 4.59x book value, and 11.15x EV/EBITDA. A single earnings multiple misses the debt and project funding needs because free cash flow is negative during the construction phase. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | VG closed at $13.38 on July 31, 2026, above its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, with 14-day RSI near 53 and 14-day ADX near 18.5 showing an improving but still moderate trend. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high because of total debt near $37.3 billion, net debt near $35.3 billion, continued construction spending, negative free cash flow, an Altman Z-score of 1.07, LNG price and spread sensitivity, permitting, weather, safety, customer concentration, and arbitration exposure. | High |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and cross-checked math that matched across StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR XBRL, the Q1 2026 earnings release, and the Form 10-Q. Lower for forward return estimates because LNG spreads, project timing, legal outcomes, and multiples are uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium-low. The page identifies a research framework and scenario ranges, not an automatic buy or sell decision. | Medium-low |
VG AI stock forecast
The VG AI stock forecast uses a three-year mechanical scenario model around the July 31, 2026 close of $13.38 and the FY2026 consensus EPS of $1.52, using 3-year EPS growth of 12%, 3%, and -10% with exit multiples of 14x, 10x, and 8x. The model produces a bullish area near $30, a base area near $17, and a bearish area near $9 before dividends. These are sensitivity cases tied to the raised $8.2 billion to $8.5 billion adjusted EBITDA guidance, not price targets or promises.
$27 to $33
More likely if Iran war driven LNG prices persist, 2026 adjusted EBITDA reaches the raised $8.2 billion to $8.5 billion guidance range, Plaquemines Phase I reaches COD in Q4 2026 and Phase II in mid-2027, CP2 keeps its schedule, and the five-year supply agreements keep filling contracted volume.
$15 to $18
More likely if LNG spreads normalize gradually, 2026 adjusted EBITDA lands near the guidance range, Plaquemines reaches COD on schedule, construction spending and leverage stay elevated, and the market applies a roughly 10x terminal earnings multiple.
$8 to $10
More likely if LNG margins compress as new U.S. and Qatari supply arrives, construction or commissioning slips, financing costs rise, negative free cash flow persists, adverse arbitration damages or customer disputes emerge, or investors assign a lower multiple to a capital-intensive exporter.
VG AI technical analysis
VG AI technical analysis is improving as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $13.38 on July 31, 2026, above its 20-day moving average near $13.14, its 50-day near $12.52, its 100-day near $13.06, and its 200-day near $10.72, with 14-day RSI near 53 and 14-day ADX near 18.5. A 52-week high of $17.62 remains the major overhead reference.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $13.38 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close; market cap math uses 2.48 billion shares outstanding. |
| Near support | $13.06 to $13.14 | Barchart placed the 100-day moving average near $13.06 and the 20-day near $13.14 as of July 31, 2026, forming a first pullback support zone. |
| Next support | $12.50 to $12.60 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 50-day moving average near $12.52, the next support below the recent close. |
| Deeper support | $10.70 to $10.80 | The 200-day moving average was near $10.72, the long-term trend line that would define a structural breakdown if lost. |
| Near resistance | $13.55 to $14.00 | The July 31, 2026 day high was $13.55 and the round $14 level sits just above, so a close above $14 would confirm near-term strength. |
| Higher resistance | $17.62 | StockAnalysis.com listed a 52-week high of $17.62. This is a reference level, not a prediction. |
| Moving averages | 20-day $13.14, 50-day $12.52, 100-day $13.06, 200-day $10.72 | The selected close sits above all four key averages, which is a constructive configuration compared with the prior snapshot that was below the 100-day average. |
| Momentum | RSI near 53, ADX near 18.5 | 14-day RSI was near 53.08 on StockAnalysis.com and 53.07 on Barchart, neutral and not overbought, while 14-day ADX near 18.48 with -DI of 29.29 above +DI of 26.45 means the trend is improving but still moderate. |
| Volume | About 16.1 million average shares | StockAnalysis.com listed 20-day average volume near 16.14 million and Barchart near 16.33 million, useful for checking whether moves are backed by participation. |
| Volatility | Elevated | Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 81% and 14-day ATR near $0.78, so position sizing should account for large daily swings around earnings and LNG price moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $13.06, then $12.52 | A decisive close below the 100-day moving average near $13.06 would weaken the improvement, and a close below the 50-day near $12.52 would turn the near-term setup bearish. |
VG AI trading strategy
The VG AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal investment advice. It combines price and volume with LNG cargo economics, EBITDA guidance, debt, construction milestones, contract status, arbitration developments, natural-gas and LNG spreads, and safety or regulatory news.
Watch for VG to hold above the 20-day moving average near $13.14 and to build volume on a close above $14 toward the $17.62 high, with the 50-day average near $12.52 still rising.
A daily close below the 20-day moving average or a failed attempt near the $14 resistance should trigger a stop and review of LNG prices and Q2 2026 results.
If VG pulls back toward the $12.50 to $13.14 support cluster without new legal, debt, or project damage, compare the price reaction with the August 11, 2026 Q2 report, EBITDA guidance, and LNG forward curves before acting.
Do not average down without a predefined loss limit. A low share price can reflect leverage, negative free cash flow, dilution, project risk, or a changed legal outcome.
Track cargo volumes, liquefaction fees, contracted versus unsold cargoes, adjusted EBITDA, operating cash flow, capital expenditures, cash, debt maturities, Plaquemines and CP2 commissioning, FERC decisions, counterparties, and arbitration updates.
Reduce confidence when share-price moves are driven by spot-LNG headlines without matching evidence on sustainable cash flow, capital needs, and balance-sheet resilience.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Venture Global to liquefy U.S. natural gas, transport LNG, and deliver cargoes into global markets. Value comes from permitted infrastructure, reliable operations, contracts, and the spread between gas input costs and LNG sales economics.
The moat rests on Gulf Coast sites, FERC and export approvals, pipelines, large-scale equipment, customer relationships, construction expertise, and operating infrastructure. These barriers are meaningful, but they require continuous capital and cannot eliminate global LNG competition.
The thesis fails if project costs rise or schedules slip, LNG prices or spreads weaken as new supply arrives, debt becomes harder to service, regulators intervene, storms or incidents disrupt operations, customers dispute contracts, or arbitration damages are material.
Michael Sabel and Robert Pender have led rapid development and retain voting control through Class B shares. Raised 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $8.2 billion to $8.5 billion, CP2 Phase II FID with an $8.6 billion financing, and a Calcasieu refinancing show momentum, but disciplined financing and resilient customer relationships remain the key question.
Global gas-security needs and the Iran war raised LNG prices and second-quarter liquefaction fees, while new supply from the United States and Qatar, trade policy, infrastructure constraints, decarbonization policy, and geopolitics can quickly alter utilization and pricing.
The selected $13.38 price equals 14.86x trailing EPS and 8.90x forward EPS, but trailing free cash flow was negative near $6.9 billion and net debt near $35.3 billion. Margin of safety depends on conservative debt, project, and cash-flow assumptions rather than the earnings multiple alone.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| VG quote reference | $13.38 NYSE close on July 31, 2026, up 1.06%, with after-hours at $13.70 | StockAnalysis VG market snapshot | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $33.18 billion from $13.38 x 2.48 billion shares, a 0.17% variance from $33.24 billion reported market capitalization | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis VG market snapshot | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $13.769 billion from Venture Global 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis, with 0.00% cross-validation variance | Venture Global 2025 Form 10-K and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $2.260 billion net income attributable to common stockholders from SEC EDGAR XBRL and StockAnalysis, with 0.00% cross-validation variance | Venture Global 2025 Form 10-K and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | Revenue of $4.599 billion up 59%, income from operations of $1.151 billion up 7%, net income attributable to common stockholders of $488 million up 23%, consolidated adjusted EBITDA of $1.372 billion up 2%, and diluted EPS of $0.19 | Venture Global Q1 2026 earnings release | May 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 LNG volumes | 130 cargoes exported and 481 TBtu of LNG sold, a new quarterly record, up 106% and 111% respectively from Q1 2025 | Venture Global Q1 2026 earnings release | May 12, 2026 |
| 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance | Raised to $8.2 billion to $8.5 billion from $5.2 billion to $5.8 billion, with 494 to 523 cargoes expected (raised from 486 to 527) and 84% of available 2026 cargoes sold at a weighted average liquefaction fee of $4.51 per MMBtu, while remaining unsold cargoes assume $9.50 to $10.50 per MMBtu | Venture Global Q1 2026 earnings release | May 12, 2026 |
| CP2 project status | CP2 Phase II final investment decision announced and an $8.6 billion project financing closed, bringing total CP2 financing to $20.7 billion, with first LNG expected in the second half of 2027 | Venture Global Q1 2026 earnings release | May 12, 2026 |
| Plaquemines and Calcasieu status | Plaquemines Phase I COD targeted for Q4 2026 and Phase II for mid-2027, and Calcasieu Pass celebrated one year of commercial operations in April 2026 with no missed cargoes | Venture Global Q1 2026 earnings release | May 12, 2026 |
| Long-term supply agreements | Total capacity sold under five-year agreements exceeded 3 MTPA, including a raised Vitol agreement near 1.7 MTPA, a new TotalEnergies agreement near 0.85 MTPA, and binding agreements with Trafigura and Vitol | Venture Global Q1 2026 earnings release | May 12, 2026 |
| Cash and debt at March 31, 2026 | $1.599 billion cash and cash equivalents plus $335 million restricted cash; total debt of $37.279 billion made up of $36.456 billion long-term debt, $126 million current portion, and $697 million long-term leases | Venture Global Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 2, 2026 |
| Net debt and equity | Net debt of -$35.345 billion, total assets of $56.300 billion, common stockholders equity of $7.233 billion, and total shareholders equity of $12.345 billion including minority interest as of March 31, 2026 | Venture Global Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 2, 2026 |
| Trailing cash flow | Operating cash flow of $6.215 billion, capital expenditures of -$13.080 billion, and free cash flow of -$6.865 billion over the trailing twelve months; Q1 2026 free cash flow was -$2.418 billion | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement and Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 14.86x trailing PE, 8.90x forward PE, 2.15x sales, 4.59x book value, 11.15x EV/EBITDA, 4.47x EV/sales, and 0.60% dividend yield | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average price target of $16.37 across 19 analysts, low $13, median $16, and high $22 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | July 28, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 6 Strong Buy, 5 Buy, 8 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell out of 19 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | July 28, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | BofA Buy $16, Morgan Stanley Buy $22, Mizuho Hold $13 to $15, RBC Buy $16, UBS Buy $21, Goldman Sachs Buy $18, Wells Fargo Hold $14, and Bernstein Hold $14 | StockAnalysis.com analyst ratings | July 28, 2026 |
| FY2026 and FY2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate $18.02 billion with EPS $1.52, FY2027 revenue $16.26 billion with EPS $0.98, and FY2026 EPS estimate range of $1.29 to $1.74 | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | July 28, 2026 |
| Short interest | 41.50 million shares short, 1.67% of shares outstanding, 8.19% of float, and 2.93 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 20-day SMA near $13.14, 50-day SMA near $12.52, 100-day SMA near $13.06, 200-day SMA near $10.72, 14-day RSI near 53, 14-day ADX near 18.48, and 14-day historical volatility near 81% | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 2, 2026 |
| Recent catalysts | Q2 2026 earnings scheduled for August 11, 2026; Reuters reported second-quarter liquefaction fees jumped about 69% quarter over quarter on Iran war driven LNG prices; Baker Hughes announced a CP2 liquefaction solution order booked in Q2; a $1.5 billion senior secured vessel financing closed June 26; and $2.25 billion of senior secured notes closed June 11 | StockAnalysis.com news, Reuters, and Business Wire | August 2, 2026 |
| Founder voting control | Venture Global Partners II held 1.969 billion Class B shares as of March 31, 2026; Class B shares carry ten votes each while Class A shares carry one vote each, with 514 million Class A shares issued and outstanding | Venture Global Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | May 12, 2026 |
This VG AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots, and third-party data as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, LNG price moves, project conditions, debt, legal matters, or macro conditions.
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