Unum Group research snapshot
UNM AI stock analysis currently reads Unum Group as a workplace benefits and employee-protection insurer with strong core-segment returns, heavy capital return through buybacks and dividends, and residual Closed Block risk after reinsurance exits. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, the reference quote was $87.50 with a verified market capitalization near $13.98 billion. The constructive case rests on Unum US, Colonial Life, and international premium growth, after-tax adjusted operating EPS guidance of $8.60 to $8.90 for 2026, holding-company liquidity near $2.3 billion, and RBC near 440 percent. The caution is that FY 2025 GAAP net income fell to $738.5 million after reserve and Closed Block noise, disability benefit ratios can rise, and the stock has cooled from the early-July area near $92. This UNM AI stock analysis is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$87.50
Market cap
$13.98 billion
AI score
71 / 100
Rating
High-ROE workplace benefits franchise with active buybacks, but claims, Closed Block residual risk, and a soft near-term tape keep the margin of safety only moderate
Trend status
Intermediate uptrend still intact above the 50-day and 200-day averages, with a short-term pullback from early-July highs near $92
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Unum sells group disability, group life, voluntary benefits, dental and vision, leave management, and related workplace services where employers and employees pay for income protection and benefits administration. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from employer distribution, brand trust, claims and leave administration scale, actuarial data, product breadth across Unum and Colonial Life, switching friction inside benefits packages, and capital strength. | Medium-high |
| Management | Richard P. McKenney has pushed Closed Block risk reduction, digital capability investment, disciplined capital return, and an 8% to 12% adjusted operating EPS growth outlook for 2026 after redefining metrics to exclude Closed Block results. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY 2025 revenue was $13.08 billion and premium income $10.83 billion, while GAAP net income fell to $738.5 million; Q1 2026 after-tax adjusted operating income was $352.5 million, or $2.14 per share, with Unum US sales up 20.8%. | High |
| Valuation | At $87.50, financial_rigor.py calculates about 20.5x FY 2025 GAAP diluted EPS of $4.27, about 1.29x Q1 2026 book value of $67.76, a 2.10% forward dividend yield on $1.84, and roughly 10x the midpoint of 2026 adjusted operating EPS guidance. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | UNM pulled back from early-July levels near $92 toward $87.50, remaining above a 50-day average near $85 to $86 and a 200-day average near $78, with RSI near the mid-range. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Main risks are disability claim severity, employment-cycle premium pressure, investment and credit marks, Closed Block residual risk, reserve assumption updates, regulation, and multiple compression if adjusted EPS growth disappoints. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive and reported data checked with financial_rigor.py. Medium for the forecast because claims experience and residual closed-block items can move both earnings quality and the PE investors pay. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. UNM is a well-disclosed workplace benefits franchise with strong capital return, but the stock already prices a solid operating story and remains sensitive to claims and actuarial noise. | Medium |
UNM AI stock forecast
The UNM AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $87.50 quote and a midpoint 2026 adjusted operating EPS of about $8.75 from company guidance of $8.60 to $8.90. A three-year framework audited with financial_rigor.py produced a bullish value near $139.80, a base value near $104.20, and a bearish value near $70.00 before dividends. These are scenario outputs, not a reliable prediction of Unum stock price.
$135 to $145
More likely if adjusted operating EPS compounds near 10% for three years, Unum US and Colonial Life keep strong sales and persistency, benefit ratios stabilize, buybacks reduce share count, and investors value UNM near 12x earnings.
$100 to $110
More likely if adjusted operating EPS grows about 6% annually, premium growth stays in the mid-single digits, Closed Block residual noise remains manageable, and the market values UNM near 10x earnings.
$65 to $75
More likely if disability claims worsen, investment income or credit marks weaken, reserve updates cut earnings quality, employment softens premium growth, or investors value UNM closer to 8x earnings.
UNM AI technical analysis
UNM AI technical analysis starts from the July 12, 2026 data cutoff and a $87.50 reference quote near the July 10 close. Recent daily closes moved from about $92.34 on July 2 toward the high-$80s, while third-party snapshots still place the 50-day average near $85 to $86 and the 200-day average near $78. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, live moving averages, RSI, options flow, and volume should be checked before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $87.50 | Reference market quote near the July 10, 2026 close, verified during the July 12, 2026 workflow. |
| Near support | $85 to $86 | Zone around the reported 50-day moving average. Holding this band would keep the intermediate uptrend intact after the early-July pullback. |
| Secondary support | $78 to $80 | Area around the reported 200-day moving average. A pullback into this zone would test whether longer-term buyers still support the workplace-benefits thesis. |
| Major support | $68 to $72 | Deeper risk-control zone near the 52-week low area around $68.28, where the market would likely be repricing claims, capital, or growth disappointment. |
| Near resistance | $91 to $93 | Area around early-July closes and the reported 52-week high near $93.22. A close back above it would improve breakout evidence. |
| Secondary resistance | $100 to $110 | Upper valuation band from the base-to-bullish scenario range, useful as a sentiment checkpoint rather than a price promise. |
| Moving averages | Above 50-day and 200-day on latest third-party snapshots | Financhill and related snapshots showed a 50-day SMA near $85.72 and a 200-day SMA near $78.32, with price still above both after the pullback. |
| Momentum | Neutral to mildly soft short term | RSI near 50 on recent third-party reads, with price below short-term averages after the July retreat from the low $90s. |
| Volume | About 1.3M to 1.4M average daily shares | A reconquest of the $91 to $93 zone would carry more weight if volume moves above recent averages near 1.3 million to 1.4 million shares. |
| Volatility | Moderate insurance-cycle volatility | UNM can move on disability claims, employment data, investment income, reserve updates, Closed Block residual items, rate moves, and capital-return news. |
| Invalidation | Close below $85 | A decisive close below the 50-day zone would weaken the trend-following setup and shift attention to the 200-day band and risk control. |
UNM AI trading strategy
The UNM AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for monitoring UNM. It does not tell any individual investor to buy, sell, or hold Unum stock.
Watch for UNM to reclaim and hold $91 to $93 with volume above the recent average while premium growth, benefit ratios, adjusted operating EPS progress toward the $8.60 to $8.90 outlook, book value, and capital ratios remain stable.
A failed reclaim, weak volume, or a close back below $85 should invalidate the short-term setup.
If UNM pulls back toward $78 to $80 while RBC, holding-company liquidity, core-segment ROE, dividend coverage, and adjusted operating income remain solid, compare the price with book value, dividend yield, and normalized operating earnings power.
Do not treat a lower price as value if the decline is driven by rising disability benefit ratios, reserve assumption hits, credit marks, weaker sales or persistency, or a capital-return pause.
Track Unum US and Colonial Life premium and sales, benefit ratios, after-tax adjusted operating income, GAAP net income versus adjusted results, Closed Block residual items, book value and book value excluding AOCI, RBC, holding-company liquidity, buybacks, and dividend growth.
Reduce confidence when price strength is not matched by premium quality, claims control, capital strength, and clean adjusted operating EPS progress.
Investment research summary
Customers pay UNM for workplace disability, life, voluntary benefits, dental and vision coverage, leave administration, and related employee-protection services delivered mainly through employers via the Unum and Colonial Life brands.
UNM has employer distribution, product breadth, claims and leave-administration scale, actuarial data, brand recognition in employee benefits, and capital strength, but insurance moats are tested by claim trends, employment cycles, rates, and regulation.
The thesis fails if disability claim severity rises, employment weakens premium growth and persistency, investment or credit marks worsen, Closed Block residual risk reappears, reserve updates cut earnings quality, or capital returns become less reliable.
Management is judged on Closed Block risk reduction, digital and product execution, capital discipline, buyback timing, dividend durability, benefit-ratio control, and whether the redefined 2026 adjusted EPS outlook of $8.60 to $8.90 is delivered cleanly.
Employer demand for income protection, voluntary benefits, leave management, and employee well-being services supports a long-term need, while the sector remains exposed to claims inflation, employment cycles, investment markets, and capital rules.
On adjusted operating earnings near the 2026 guidance midpoint, UNM looks closer to a mid-teens or low-double-digit PE story than the high GAAP PE implies, but margin of safety still depends on claims control, residual Closed Block noise, and whether buybacks create lasting EPS support.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNM price | $87.50 | Yahoo Finance and company investor quote snapshots | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | About $13.98 billion by price times shares | financial_rigor.py market-cap check using Yahoo shares outstanding | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | About 159.78 million (Yahoo) versus 160.7 million at March 31, 2026 company report | Yahoo Finance key statistics and Unum Q1 2026 release | July 12, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $68.28 to $93.22 | Yahoo Finance quote snapshot | July 12, 2026 |
| FY 2025 total revenue | $13.076 billion | Unum Q4 2025 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| FY 2025 premium income | $10.831 billion | Unum Q4 2025 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| FY 2025 net income | $738.5 million, or $4.27 diluted EPS | Unum Q4 2025 earnings release and Macrotrends cross-check | July 12, 2026 |
| FY 2025 after-tax adjusted operating income | $1.406 billion, or $8.13 per share; redefined $1.372 billion, or $7.93 per share excluding Closed Block | Unum Q4 2025 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | Net income $232.0 million ($1.41); after-tax adjusted operating income $352.5 million ($2.14) | Unum Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 book value per share | $67.76; $78.93 excluding AOCI | Unum Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| 2026 adjusted operating EPS outlook | $8.60 to $8.90 per share | Unum Q4 2025 earnings release outlook section | July 12, 2026 |
| Capital and liquidity | Holding company liquidity about $2.3 billion; weighted average RBC about 440% at year-end 2025 | Unum Q4 2025 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Capital return | About $1.3 billion returned in 2025 including $1.0 billion buybacks; Q1 2026 buybacks $402.4 million | Unum Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 earnings releases | July 12, 2026 |
| Forward annual dividend | $1.84, about 2.10% yield at $87.50 | Yahoo Finance key statistics and financial_rigor.py check | July 12, 2026 |
| Premium mix by segment (FY 2025) | Unum US 65.4%, Colonial Life 17.0%, Unum International 10.0%, Closed Block 7.6% | Unum Form 10-K for year ended December 31, 2025 | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day SMA near $85.72, 200-day SMA near $78.32, RSI near 50, average volume about 1.3M to 1.4M | Financhill and Yahoo quote snapshots | July 12, 2026 |
This UNM AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date, can be wrong, and should be checked against current filings, live market prices, and your own risk constraints.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
