U-Haul Holding Company research snapshot
UHAL AI stock analysis currently reads U-Haul Holding Company as a durable North American do-it-yourself moving and self-storage franchise with national brand strength, a large dealer network, and growing owned storage square footage, but fiscal 2026 earnings are sharply depressed by fleet depreciation, disposal losses, liability costs, and lease-up costs on newly built storage. Using the July 10, 2026 close of $67.30 and about 196.08 million combined voting and non-voting shares, calculated market cap is about $13.20 billion. Trailing PE near 280x on $0.24 voting-common EPS is not a clean earnings multiple, so the UHAL AI stock forecast should be treated as recovery and multiple scenarios rather than a precise price prediction. The setup improves if storage occupancy fills, rental-equipment losses normalize, and free cash flow turns less negative; it weakens if housing mobility stays soft, fleet residual values stay weak, or leverage stays elevated while earnings lag.
Current price
$67.30
Market cap
$13.20 billion calculated market cap
AI score
58 / 100
Rating
Durable DIY moving and storage franchise with depressed earnings, heavy fleet and storage capex, and valuation that needs earnings recovery
Trend status
Near 52-week highs and above the longer moving-average band after a multi-month recovery
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Customers pay U-Haul for one-way and in-town trucks, trailers, towing devices, self-storage, moving supplies, propane, and hitch installation across a dense North American network. | High |
| Moat | Brand recognition, dealer density, fleet availability, one-way network effects, and owned real estate create a durable advantage, though local storage and truck rental competition remains real. | High |
| Management | The Shoen family controls the company through dual-class voting stock. Capital allocation emphasizes fleet refresh, storage development, and a new $350 million repurchase authorization rather than a large common dividend on voting shares. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2026 revenue rose 3.6% to $6.038 billion, but net earnings fell to $83.1 million from $367.1 million as depreciation, disposal losses, and storage fill costs weighed on profits. | High |
| Valuation | At $67.30, UHAL screens at about 280x depressed TTM voting EPS, 1.73x book value near $38.81, and negative free-cash-flow yield, so asset and recovery math matter more than trailing PE. | High |
| Technical trend | Price sits near the 52-week high band around $68 and above longer moving averages near the low $60s, so momentum is constructive but extended after the recovery rally. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are housing and mobility cycles, fleet residual values, storage lease-up, liability inflation, leverage near 4.3x net debt to adjusted EBITDA, dual-class control, and earnings recovery failure. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because company filings and third-party revenue data agree. Forecast confidence is lower because earnings power is in transition. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | UHAL is a strong franchise at the operating level, but the current price already prices a meaningful earnings recovery and leaves limited margin of safety if that recovery is slow. | Medium-low |
UHAL AI stock forecast
The UHAL AI stock forecast starts from $67.30, depressed FY2026 voting-common EPS of $0.24, and recovery-normalized earnings power closer to the $2.00 to $2.50 range that better matches prior-cycle profitability. A pure depressed-EPS three-scenario model produces very low targets because 280x PE cannot compound sensibly from $0.24 without a full earnings reset. Using recovery-normalized EPS near $2.00 to $2.50, the audited model produced a bullish area near $91 to $93, a base area near $45 to $46, and a harsh bearish area near $13 to $15 before asset-floor judgment. Practical scenario bands below widen those tool outputs for book value support and dual-class market structure.
$85 to $95
More likely if self-storage occupancy recovers from the lease-up drag, self-moving rental revenue keeps growing, fleet disposal losses fade, truck capex moderates as management expects, adjusted EBITDA holds near or above the $1.65 billion area, and investors pay a mid-to-high 20s multiple on recovered mid-$2 to low-$3 EPS.
$42 to $50
More likely if revenue grows low single digits, earnings recover only partway toward the prior $1.50 to $2.00 EPS zone, free cash flow remains constrained by fleet and storage investment, and the market values UHAL closer to 18x to 20x normalized earnings rather than a full re-rating.
$25 to $35
More likely if housing mobility softens further, storage fill stays slow, residual values on retired trucks remain weak, interest expense stays elevated on roughly $8.1 billion of Moving and Storage debt, and the stock compresses toward or below book value near $39 with a lower earnings multiple.
UHAL AI technical analysis
UHAL AI technical analysis is constructive on the multi-month recovery but extended near resistance. As of the July 12, 2026 cutoff, MarketBeat showed a July 10 close of $67.30, Macrotrends listed market capitalization near $13.2 billion, and public tape references put the 52-week range roughly from the low $42 area to about $68.25. Longer moving-average references cluster in the low $60s, while shorter momentum readings have been elevated after the rally. The useful framework is to separate a hold above the $61 to $63 band from a deeper reset toward the mid-$50s or the lower half of the 52-week range.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $67.30 | Latest close reference from July 10, 2026 used for the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Immediate support | $61 to $63 | This band overlaps longer moving-average references in the low $60s and recent recovery shelves. |
| Deeper support | $52 to $55 | A break of the low-$60s band would open a deeper mean-reversion zone into prior mid-range support. |
| Near resistance | $68 to $70 | The 52-week high area near $68.25 and the psychologically round $70 level form the first resistance band. |
| Moving averages | Longer averages near the low $60s | Public technical summaries show UHAL trading above its longer moving-average band after the recovery, which supports the trend while the stock is extended. |
| Momentum | Elevated after the recovery rally | Short-term RSI-style readings near the high 60s in recent public technical summaries signal constructive but not unconstrained upside. |
| Volume | Low relative to mega-cap peers | Voting UHAL can trade thinner than non-voting UHAL.B, so breakouts and breakdowns can gap more easily around earnings or fleet commentary. |
| Volatility | Watch next earnings and fleet residual commentary | Fleet disposal losses, storage occupancy, liability costs, and capex guidance can move UHAL more than ordinary daily noise. |
| Invalidation | Close below $61, then below $52 for the larger recovery | A break below the low-$60s band weakens the tactical setup. A break through the mid-$50s would challenge the post-bottom recovery framework. |
UHAL AI trading strategy
The UHAL AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects trend behavior with self-moving demand, self-storage fill, fleet residuals, liability costs, leverage, free cash flow, and dual-class share structure.
Watch for UHAL to hold above $61 to $63 and reclaim or accept above $68 to $70 while quarterly updates show rising storage occupancy, stabilizing fleet disposal results, and continued self-moving revenue growth.
A failed breakout followed by a close below $61 should reduce trend confidence, especially if management commentary points to weaker one-way demand, softer residual values, or slower storage lease-up.
If UHAL pulls back toward the $42 to $55 zone without a structural break in brand demand, dealer network health, or balance-sheet liquidity, compare the lower price with book value near $39, owned storage square footage, and normalized earnings power.
Do not treat a lower price as automatically attractive if net debt to adjusted EBITDA stays elevated, free cash flow stays deeply negative, or storage fill and fleet residuals keep deteriorating together.
Track self-moving equipment rental revenue, self-storage revenue and occupancy, same-store revenue per foot, fleet depreciation and disposal gains or losses, Moving and Storage adjusted EBITDA, net debt to adjusted EBITDA, cash and credit availability, and repurchase activity under the $350 million authorization.
Position sizing should reflect dual-class control, cyclical mobility demand, and the fact that trailing PE is currently distorted by temporary earnings compression.
Investment research summary
Customers pay U-Haul because they need trucks, trailers, towing gear, boxes, and storage when moving or organizing life events. The company converts brand trust, nationwide availability, and shared-use fleet economics into rental revenue, storage rents, product sales, and related insurance income.
The moat is strongest in brand, one-way network density, dealer relationships, fleet scale of roughly 204,800 trucks and 136,600 trailers, and a large owned and managed storage footprint of about 99.0 million square feet. It is weaker when local storage supply rises, residual truck values fall, or housing turnover slows.
The thesis fails if mobility demand stagnates, fleet residual losses persist, storage remains overbuilt relative to fill rates, liability costs keep rising faster than pricing, leverage stays high while free cash flow stays negative, or family control capital allocation frustrates minority shareholders.
Chairman Joe Shoen and the controlling family have long operating history in the U-Haul system. The management test is whether leadership can moderate truck capex, fill newly built storage, normalize liability costs, and use the $350 million repurchase plan without weakening the balance sheet during a soft earnings period.
DIY moving and self-storage sit in long-running consumer and household formation trends rather than a pure technology paradigm shift. Secular storage demand and shared-use fleet convenience help, but both businesses still track housing turnover, local supply, insurance inflation, and interest rates.
At $67.30, the market is paying for earnings recovery, durable brand cash generation, and real-estate-backed franchise value more than current GAAP profits. Margin of safety improves if the stock resets closer to book or the base-case zone while storage fill and fleet residuals improve, or if cash flow recovers into the current price.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| UHAL quote reference | $67.30 July 10, 2026 close, near the top of the roughly $42 to $68.25 52-week area | MarketBeat UHAL quote data | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $13.20 billion calculated from $67.30 x 196.07788 million combined voting and non-voting shares (0.03% vs $13.20 billion report) | Pineify financial_rigor.py and company share counts | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 19,607,788 voting common and 176,470,092 non-voting common, or 196,077,880 combined weighted average shares | U-Haul Holding FY2026 results release | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2026 revenue and earnings | $6.038 billion revenue, $83.1 million net earnings available to shareholders, $0.24 voting EPS, and $0.44 non-voting EPS | U-Haul Holding FY2026 results release | July 12, 2026 |
| Revenue cross-check | Company IR $6.038 billion and Macrotrends $6.038 billion for FY2026, within 0.0% after rounding | Macrotrends UHAL revenue history | July 12, 2026 |
| Segment and operating mix | Self-moving rental revenue $3.812 billion, self-storage revenue $972 million, Moving and Storage adjusted EBITDA $1.646 billion | U-Haul Holding FY2026 results release | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and leverage | Consolidated cash $1.120 billion, Moving and Storage total debt $8.125 billion, net debt to adjusted EBITDA 4.3x as of March 31, 2026 | U-Haul Holding FY2026 results release | July 12, 2026 |
| Book value and equity | Stockholders equity $7.612 billion, about $38.81 book value per combined share, and about 1.73x price to book at $67.30 | U-Haul Holding FY2026 balance sheet and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Free cash flow context | Macrotrends annual free cash flow about -$0.649 billion for 2026, or roughly -$3.31 per combined share, reflecting heavy fleet and storage investment | Macrotrends UHAL free cash flow history | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 280.42x TTM PE on $0.24 voting EPS, 1.73x book, negative free-cash-flow yield near -4.9%, and about 2.19x sales on $6.038 billion revenue | Pineify financial_rigor.py and company filings | July 12, 2026 |
| Fleet and storage scale | About 204,800 trucks, 136,600 trailers, 42,000 towing devices, over 25,000 locations, and about 99.0 million square feet of self-storage space | U-Haul Holding company profile in FY2026 results release | July 12, 2026 |
| Capital return authorization | Board authorized a $350 million share repurchase plan across both classes on May 22, 2026; non-voting stock pays a $0.05 quarterly cash dividend | U-Haul Holding FY2026 results release | July 12, 2026 |
This UHAL AI stock analysis is for informational and educational use only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenario estimates based on available public data as of July 12, 2026, and they can be wrong if fundamentals, market prices, housing mobility, fleet residual values, storage occupancy, debt costs, dual-class market structure, or investor sentiment change.
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