Urban Edge Properties research snapshot
UE AI stock analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff reads Urban Edge Properties as a retail REIT focused on grocery-anchored and necessity-based shopping centers in urban and dense suburban communities along the Washington DC to Boston corridor. The stock closed at $22.60 on August 3, 2026, down 0.06 or 0.26% from the $22.66 close on July 31, after opening at $22.68 and trading in a session range of $22.48 to $22.88 on volume near 830,000 shares, with a market capitalization of about $2.85 billion on Google Finance and Barchart, computed as $22.60 times 126.02 million shares and cross-validated with financial_rigor.py, while StockAnalysis.com reports about $3.01 billion using a 133.31 million share count. Q1 2026 results, released April 29, 2026, showed FFO as adjusted of $0.36 per share up 3% year over year, same-property NOI growth of 2.8% including redevelopment, 419,000 square feet of leases executed including 84,000 square feet of new leases at a 52% cash spread, and the $54 million acquisition of The Village at Bridgewater Commons at a 7.7% cap rate, while management raised 2026 FFO as adjusted guidance to $1.48 to $1.52 per share, about 5% growth at the midpoint. The stock trades near 15x estimated forward FFO and 26x trailing GAAP earnings, pays a $0.84 annual dividend for a 3.72% yield, and sits below the 50-day moving average near $22.93 and above the 200-day moving average near $20.84 with 14-day RSI near 43. The AI score of 70 out of 100 reflects improving operating fundamentals and a raised guidance range balanced against a dividend payout ratio near 99%, debt to EBITDA near 6.4x, tenant credit sensitivity, and a valuation that already prices in part of the improvement. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$22.60
Market cap
About $2.85 billion
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
Improving urban retail REIT with a fair valuation and neutral near-term momentum
Trend status
Below the 52-week high of $24.11, above the 52-week low of $18.46, below the 50-day moving average near $22.93 and above the 200-day moving average near $20.84, with 14-day RSI near 43
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Urban Edge Properties owns, manages, acquires, and redevelops retail real estate in urban and dense suburban communities, primarily in the Washington DC to Boston corridor. As of the August 4, 2026 profile, it owns 74 properties totaling about 17.3 million square feet of gross leasable area, anchored by grocers, discounters, off-price retailers, and home improvement stores, with shops made up of quick service restaurants, health, fitness, and service uses. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from its well-located retail properties in dense Northeast corridor markets, redevelopment expertise, tenant relationships, and local market knowledge. The moat is modest compared to larger national REITs because urban retail remains exposed to changing consumer habits, work-from-home patterns, and competition from better-capitalized owners. | Medium |
| Management | Chairman and CEO Jeffrey S. Olson has led the company since its 2015 spinoff from Vornado Realty Trust, with COO Jeffrey Mooallem and CFO Mark Langer. The team has focused on improving portfolio quality through accretive acquisitions such as Bridgewater Commons at a 7.7% cap rate, redevelopment, and dispositions of non-core assets, and raised 2026 FFO as adjusted guidance to $1.48 to $1.52 per share after a strong Q1. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was about $471.94 million, up 6.06% from $444.97 million, with net income near $93.5 million. TTM revenue is near $478 million and TTM net income near $108 million. Q1 2026 revenue was about $124.52 million with net income near $22.6 million, and FFO as adjusted of $0.36 per share rose 3% year over year, supporting a raised 2026 guidance range. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $22.60, UE trades near 26.3x trailing GAAP EPS, about 15x estimated forward FFO on the $1.50 guidance midpoint, 2.21x book value, about 6x sales, and a 3.72% forward dividend yield with a payout ratio near 99%. The verified three-scenario model produced a base case near $24.60, upside to about $31 in a bullish case, and downside to about $18 in a bearish case. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | UE is below the 52-week high of $24.11 and above the 52-week low of $18.46, and closed at $22.60 on August 3, 2026, below the 50-day moving average near $22.93 and above the 200-day moving average near $20.84. RSI near 43 is neutral, and Barchart rates the stock a 64% Buy with a weakest short-term outlook. Key support is around $22.03 to $22.43 and resistance near $22.83 to $23.23. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate for a retail REIT. The main risks are higher interest rates, retail tenant bankruptcies, occupancy declines, tenant credit stress, work-from-home trends affecting urban retail, a dividend payout ratio near 99%, leverage near 6.4x debt to EBITDA, competition from larger REITs, and geographic concentration in the Northeast corridor. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Confidence is high for company-reported Q1 2026 results, FY2025 and TTM financials, market cap math, shares outstanding, dividend data, and balance sheet figures that cross-validated across StockAnalysis.com, Google Finance, and Barchart. Confidence is medium for forward FFO growth, occupancy, re-leasing spreads, acquisition returns, and market multiples. | High data confidence, medium forward outlook |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. UE offers a focused grocery-anchored retail portfolio with improving operating trends, a raised guidance range, and a growing dividend, but the current price near 15x forward FFO does not offer a large discount and the company still depends on occupancy gains, re-leasing spreads, and interest rates to deliver its plan. | Medium |
UE AI stock forecast
The UE AI stock forecast uses FFO as adjusted per share, occupancy trends, same-property NOI growth, the signed-not-open pipeline near $22 million of annual gross rent, redevelopment yields near 13%, acquisition cap rates near 7.7%, interest costs, dividend coverage, and REIT valuation multiples rather than a deterministic price prediction. The bullish case becomes more likely if UE sustains FFO growth near 5%, expands occupancy toward the 97% to 98% target, keeps re-leasing spreads positive, executes accretive acquisitions, and the market applies a higher FFO multiple. The bearish case becomes more likely if interest rates rise, tenant distress increases, urban retail demand weakens, occupancy stalls, or UE is valued closer to a 12x FFO multiple.
$30 to $33
More likely if UE compounds FFO near 5% to 7% annually, occupancy reaches the 97% to 98% target, re-leasing spreads stay positive, the signed-not-open pipeline converts to NOI, acquisitions continue at cap rates near 7.7%, and the market applies an 18x FFO multiple. The verified three-scenario model produced about $31.30 using 5% growth and an 18x terminal multiple.
$23 to $26
More likely if UE tracks moderate FFO growth near 3% to 4% annually, occupancy holds near 96% to 97%, leasing activity continues at reasonable spreads, and the stock trades near a 15x FFO multiple. The verified model base case was about $24.60.
$16 to $19
More likely if FFO stalls or declines, occupancy falls, tenant credit stress increases, urban retail headwinds intensify, interest costs rise, the payout ratio stays near 99% with limited buffer, or UE is valued near a 12x FFO multiple. The verified bear model produced about $18.00.
UE AI technical analysis
UE AI technical analysis starts from the $22.60 close on August 3, 2026. The stock has recovered from the 52-week low of $18.46 and is trading below the 50-day moving average near $22.93 but above the 200-day moving average near $20.84, inside the $18.46 to $24.11 52-week range. StockAnalysis.com reports 14-day RSI near 43, and Barchart rates the stock a 64% Buy with the weakest short-term outlook, meaning long-term indicators still support the trend. A close back above $22.93 would improve short-term momentum, while support sits near $22.03 to $22.43 and resistance near $22.83 to $23.23, below the 52-week high of $24.11. Technical levels should be checked against Q2 2026 earnings on August 6, 2026, rate decisions, retail REIT fund flows, and portfolio operating trends.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $22.60 | Latest verified close used for this page, reported for August 3, 2026. |
| Near support | $22.03 to $22.43 | Barchart lists first support near $22.43 and third support near $22.03, with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near $21.95. Holding this zone keeps the medium-term setup constructive. |
| Secondary support | $20.62 to $21.28 | This zone covers the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracements near $20.62 and $21.28, above the 200-day moving average near $20.84. |
| Resistance | $22.83 to $23.23 | Barchart lists resistance near $22.83, $23.05, and $23.23, below the mid-July peak near $23.92 and the 52-week high of $24.11. A breakout above this zone would need volume and fundamental or macro support. |
| 50-day moving average | $22.93 | Reported by StockAnalysis.com statistics. UE closed below this level, and a sustained close back above it would improve short-term trend confidence. |
| 200-day moving average | $20.84 | Reported by StockAnalysis.com statistics. A decisive close below this level would shift the medium-term setup toward risk-off conditions. |
| Momentum | RSI near 43 | Momentum is neutral, not overbought or oversold. The direction of the next move depends on Q2 2026 earnings, rates, and FFO sentiment. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 753,000 shares | A move above $23.23 would be more credible if volume expands above the 20-day average near 753,000 shares reported by StockAnalysis.com. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.97 to 1.00; IV 45.55% | Barchart reports a 60-month beta near 0.97 and implied volatility near 45.55% with an IV rank near 10%, while StockAnalysis.com reports a 5-year beta near 1.00. As a smaller-cap REIT, UE can widen on news or rate moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $20.84 or lower FFO guidance | A break below the 200-day moving average, weaker occupancy, lower same-property NOI, rising tenant distress, or a guidance cut would weaken the base case. |
UE AI trading strategy
The UE AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It should be monitored through live price, moving averages, Q2 2026 earnings on August 6, 2026, FFO guidance, occupancy, re-leasing spreads, same-property NOI, acquisition activity, debt costs, the dividend payout ratio, and retail REIT market sentiment.
Track whether UE holds above the $22.03 to $22.43 support area and then clears resistance near $22.83 to $23.23 and the 50-day moving average near $22.93 with expanding volume. Confirmation improves if Q2 2026 results show stable or improving FFO, occupancy, re-leasing spreads, and same-property NOI growth.
Reduce confidence if price closes below $22.03, if volume expands on down days, or if retail REITs weaken broadly on higher rates or weaker consumer data.
Use pullbacks toward the $20.62 to $21.28 support area, above the 200-day moving average near $20.84, as a watchlist condition only if FFO guidance, occupancy, tenant health, and dividend coverage remain intact.
Do not treat the dividend yield as a valuation floor. With a payout ratio near 99%, higher rates, weaker occupancy, or tenant credit stress can still compress FFO multiples even if the dividend appears covered.
Track FFO as adjusted per share, occupancy and leased percentage, same-property NOI growth, cash leasing spreads, the signed-not-open pipeline, acquisition and disposition volume, weighted average cap rates, net debt to EBITDA near 6.4x, interest coverage, and the dividend payout ratio.
A mix of lower FFO guidance, weaker occupancy, negative re-leasing spreads, higher rates, narrower investment spreads, and a close below $20.84 would override a bullish chart setup.
Investment research summary
Urban Edge Properties is paid to own, operate, and redevelop grocery-anchored and necessity-based retail real estate in densely populated urban and dense suburban communities. Tenants pay rent under leases that generally pass property operating costs to the tenant, while UE earns income from rent, property management, and redevelopment of its centers in supply-constrained Northeast corridor locations.
The moat is built from its well-located urban and dense suburban properties, in-fill redevelopment capabilities, tenant relationships, and local market knowledge. The moat is modest and can narrow if urban retail demand weakens further, larger competitors with lower capital costs enter its markets, or redevelopment returns fail to exceed the cost of capital.
The thesis can fail if interest rates stay high and cap rates compress, tenant bankruptcies increase in the retail sector, work-from-home trends permanently reduce urban foot traffic, occupancy falls short of the 97% to 98% target, re-leasing spreads turn negative, acquisition spreads narrow, equity becomes dilutive, or the Northeast economy underperforms the national average.
CEO Jeffrey Olson has led the company through its spinoff and subsequent portfolio transformation, including the Bridgewater Commons acquisition at a 7.7% cap rate, redevelopment, and non-core dispositions. The main test is whether re-leasing spreads, occupancy gains, and FFO per share growth can continue while the balance sheet stays flexible.
The retail REIT sector faces a mixed outlook. Grocery-anchored and necessity-based retail has fared well, while power centers and unanchored retail face more headwinds. Urban properties are recovering from pandemic-era lows but remain exposed to hybrid work patterns and changing commuter traffic. The long-term trend depends on population growth in UE markets, consumer spending, and the limited supply of well-located retail space.
The verified scenario model produced about $31.30 in the bull case, $24.60 in the base case, and $18.00 in the bearish case using the 2026 FFO as adjusted midpoint of $1.50 as the earnings proxy. At $22.60, UE trades below the base case, offering a modest margin of safety, with upside depending on FFO growth continuing and the market applying a reasonable REIT multiple.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| UE price | $22.60 close on August 3, 2026, down 0.06 or 0.26% from the $22.66 July 31 close | StockAnalysis.com, Google Finance, and Barchart | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | About $2.85 billion on Google Finance and Barchart, verified as $22.60 x 126.02 million shares with financial_rigor.py; StockAnalysis.com reports about $3.01 billion using a 133.31 million share count | Google Finance, Barchart, and financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 126.02 million shares on Google Finance and Barchart; StockAnalysis.com reports 133.31 million shares outstanding and 125.86 million float, with shares up about 3.33% year over year | Google Finance, Barchart, and StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | Revenue approximately $471.94 million, up 6.06% from $444.97 million, and net income approximately $93.5 million, with FY2025 FFO as adjusted of $1.43 per share up 6% | StockAnalysis.com financials and Q4 2025 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM financial results | TTM revenue near $478 million, TTM net income near $108 million, TTM EPS near $0.85, and TTM operating cash flow near $189 million | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 financial results | Revenue approximately $124.52 million and net income approximately $22.6 million, with FFO as adjusted of $0.36 per share up 3% year over year, same-property NOI up 2.8% including redevelopment, 419,000 square feet of leases executed, and 2026 FFO as adjusted guidance raised to $1.48 to $1.52 per share | Google Finance income statement, Barchart, and Q1 2026 earnings call transcript | August 4, 2026 |
| Dividend and valuation | $0.84 annual dividend, 3.72% forward dividend yield, payout ratio near 99%, 26.3x trailing GAAP PE, about 15x estimated forward P/FFO, 2.21x book value, and about 6x price to sales | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 4, 2026 |
| Balance sheet and leverage | About $50 million cash and cash equivalents, about $1.75 billion total debt, net debt near $1.70 billion, book value per share near $10.22, debt to equity near 1.27, debt to EBITDA near 6.41, and interest coverage near 1.82 as of March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and balance sheet | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week range and beta | 52-week high $24.11 set on June 11, 2026, 52-week low $18.46 set on November 19, 2025, 60-month beta 0.97 on Barchart, 5-year beta 1.00 on StockAnalysis.com, and 52-week price change near +18.76% | Barchart overview and StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst ratings | Consensus Buy from 7 analysts on StockAnalysis.com with an average price target of $24.29 and a range of $22 to $26; Barchart rates UE a Moderate Buy based on 8 analysts. Recent actions include Ladenburg raising its target to $24 on July 21, 2026, UBS to $24 on July 9, 2026, and BTIG to $25 on June 12, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and Barchart analyst ratings | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day moving average near $22.93, 200-day moving average near $20.84, 14-day RSI near 43.25, 20-day average volume near 753,000 shares, Barchart technical opinion of 64% Buy, and Barchart turning points of support near $22.03 to $22.43 and resistance near $22.83 to $23.23 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Barchart | August 4, 2026 |
| Three-scenario valuation model | Bull case about $31.30, base case about $24.60, and bear case about $18.00 based on a 3-year estimated FFO proxy of $1.50, 5% to 0% annual growth, and 18x to 12x terminal FFO multiples | financial_rigor.py three-scenario calculation | August 4, 2026 |
| Next earnings date | Q2 2026 earnings scheduled for August 6, 2026, after the market close, with the earnings call expected the same day | StockAnalysis.com, Google Finance, and Barchart | August 4, 2026 |
| Data source gap | Shares outstanding differs by source: Google Finance and Barchart report 126.02 million shares with a market cap near $2.85 billion, while StockAnalysis.com reports 133.31 million shares and about $3.01 billion. Q1 2026 GAAP EPS is reported as $0.18 by Barchart and $0.11 by Google Finance, so this page relies on FFO as adjusted of $0.36 per share as the primary operating metric. FFO figures come from the earnings call and StockAnalysis.com forecast data because direct AFFO disclosure is not consistently available from free third-party sources. Technical indicators are approximate and may vary by provider. | Methodology notes | August 4, 2026 |
This UE AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of August 4, 2026 and may be wrong if financial results, occupancy, tenant credit, leasing conditions, interest rates, acquisition activity, dividend policy, or market conditions change.
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