Urban Edge Properties research snapshot
UE AI stock analysis currently reads Urban Edge Properties as a retail REIT focused on urban and suburban properties in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic that has improved its portfolio quality and balance sheet since its 2015 spinoff from Vornado Realty Trust. At the July 13, 2026 cutoff, the latest verified close was $22.76 on July 10, 2026, market capitalization was about $2.87 billion, and the stock traded near 15.8x estimated forward FFO and 26.5x trailing GAAP earnings. The AI stock forecast is scenario-based because the investment case depends on occupancy, lease spreads, same-property NOI growth, acquisition volume, interest costs, and the valuation multiple the market assigns to retail REIT income. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$22.76
Market cap
$2.87 billion
AI score
69 / 100
Rating
Urban-focused retail REIT with an improving portfolio, growing FFO, manageable leverage, and rate sensitivity near 52-week highs
Trend status
Below the 52-week high of $24.11, above 52-week low of $18.46, near the 50-day moving average
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 13, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Urban Edge Properties owns, manages, acquires, and develops retail real estate in urban and suburban communities, primarily in the New York metropolitan area, Washington DC, Boston, and other Northeast and Mid-Atlantic markets. As of Q1 2026, it owned about 75 properties totaling roughly 12.1 million square feet, with a focus on grocery-anchored and necessity-based retail centers. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from its urban-focused property locations, redevelopment expertise, tenant relationships, and local market knowledge in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. The moat is modest compared to larger national REITs because urban retail remains exposed to changing consumer habits, shifting work-from-home patterns, and competition from larger capitalized competitors. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Jeffrey S. Olson has led the company since its spinoff in 2015. The management team has focused on improving portfolio quality through selective acquisitions, redevelopment of existing properties, and disposition of non-core assets. The capital allocation test is whether leasing spreads, occupancy gains, and NOI growth can sustain FFO per share improvement. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was approximately $471.9 million and net income was roughly $93.5 million. Revenue has grown from the $420-$440 million range a few years earlier. Q1 2026 revenue was about $124.5 million and net income was about $22.6 million, with FFO and operating metrics continuing to show gradual improvement. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $22.76, UE traded near 26.5x trailing GAAP EPS, 15.8x estimated forward FFO, 2.07x book value, 6.07x sales, and a 3.69% forward dividend yield. The verified three-scenario model produced a base case near $23.60, with upside to $30.00 in a bullish scenario and downside to $17.30 in a bearish scenario. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | UE is above the 52-week low of $18.46 and has rallied roughly 20% over the past year. The stock remains below the 52-week high of $24.11. RSI and momentum indicators are at neutral levels, with the stock near the 50-day moving average. Key support is around $21.00 to $21.50 and resistance near $23.50 to $24.00. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate for a retail REIT. The main risks are higher interest rates, retail tenant bankruptcies, occupancy declines, work-from-home trends affecting urban retail, competition from larger REITs, equity dilution, and geographic concentration in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Confidence is high for company-reported Q1 2026 results, market cap math, shares outstanding, dividend data, and current valuation inputs. Confidence is medium for future FFO growth, retail vacancy trends, re-leasing spreads, acquisition returns, and market multiples. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. UE offers a focused urban retail portfolio with improving trends, but the current price does not provide a large discount and the company operates in a segment of retail REITs that has not fully re-rated despite operational progress. | Medium |
UE AI stock forecast
The UE AI stock forecast uses FFO per share, occupancy trends, same-property NOI growth, acquisition cap rates, lease spreads, interest costs, dividend coverage, and REIT valuation multiples rather than a deterministic price prediction. The bullish case becomes more likely if UE sustains FFO growth near 5% annually, expands occupancy, achieves positive leasing spreads, executes accretive acquisitions, and the market applies a higher FFO multiple. The bearish case becomes more likely if interest rates rise, tenant distress increases, urban retail demand weakens, occupancy declines, or UE is valued closer to a 12x FFO multiple.
$28 to $32
More likely if UE compounds FFO near 5% annually, same-property NOI grows steadily, occupancy moves higher, leasing spreads stay positive, acquisition volume picks up at attractive cap rates, and the market applies an 18x FFO multiple. The verified three-scenario model produced about $30.00 using 5% growth and an 18x terminal multiple.
$22 to $26
More likely if UE tracks moderate FFO growth near 3% annually, occupancy remains broadly stable, leasing activity continues at reasonable spreads, and the stock trades near a 15x FFO multiple. The verified model base case was about $23.60.
$15 to $19
More likely if FFO stalls or declines, occupancy falls, tenant credit stress increases, urban retail headwinds intensify, interest costs rise, or UE is valued near a 12x FFO multiple. The verified bear model produced about $17.30.
UE AI technical analysis
UE AI technical analysis starts from the $22.76 close on July 10, 2026. The stock has recovered from the 52-week low of $18.46 and is trading near the midpoint of the $18.46 to $24.11 52-week range. Barchart technical opinion rates UE a strong buy with an 88% buy rating. The stock shows improving momentum but remains in a trading range until it can clear the $23.50 to $24.00 resistance zone. Technical levels should be checked against Q2 2026 earnings on August 6, 2026, rate decisions, retail REIT fund flows, and portfolio operating trends.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $22.76 | Latest verified close used for this page, reported for July 10, 2026. |
| Near support | $21.50 to $22.00 | This zone covers the area around the 50-day moving average. Holding it keeps the short-term trend constructive. |
| Secondary support | $20.00 to $21.00 | This zone represents the lower end of the recent trading range and a key medium-term support level. |
| Resistance | $23.50 to $24.11 | This zone covers the recent highs and the 52-week high of $24.11. A breakout above this level would need volume and fundamental or macro support. |
| 50-day moving average | Est. $21.80 to $22.20 | UE is trading near this level. A sustained close above it would improve short-term trend confidence. |
| 200-day moving average | Est. $20.50 to $21.00 | A decisive close below this level would shift the medium-term setup toward risk-off conditions. |
| Momentum | RSI near 50-55 | Momentum is neutral and not at extreme levels. The direction of the next move depends on earnings, rates, and FFO sentiment. |
| Volume | 20-day average ~1.08 million shares | A move above $24.00 would be more credible if volume expands above the 20-day average. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.97 (60-month); IV 38.3% | Reported beta is near market average, but as a smaller-cap REIT, UE can exhibit wider swings on news or rate moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $20.00 or lower FFO guidance | A break below $20.00, weaker occupancy, lower same-property NOI, rising tenant distress, or a guidance cut would weaken the base case. |
UE AI trading strategy
The UE AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It should be monitored through live price, moving averages, Q2 2026 earnings, FFO guidance, occupancy, leasing spreads, same-property NOI, acquisition activity, debt costs, and retail REIT market sentiment.
Track whether UE holds above the $21.50 to $22.00 support area and then clears $24.00 with expanding volume. Confirmation improves if Q2 2026 results show stable or improving FFO, occupancy, leasing spreads, and same-property NOI growth.
Reduce confidence if price closes below $21.00, if volume expands on down days, or if retail REITs weaken broadly on higher rates or weaker consumer data.
Use pullbacks toward the $20.00 to $21.00 support area as a watchlist condition only if FFO guidance, occupancy, tenant health, and dividend coverage remain intact.
Do not treat the dividend yield as a valuation floor. Higher rates, weaker occupancy, or tenant credit stress can still compress FFO multiples even if the dividend appears covered.
Track FFO per share, occupancy, leased percentage, same-property NOI growth, cash leasing spreads, acquisition and disposition volume, weighted average cap rates, net debt to EBITDAre, interest coverage, and dividend payout ratio.
A mix of lower FFO guidance, weaker occupancy, negative leasing spreads, higher rates, narrower investment spreads, and a close below $20.00 would override a bullish chart setup.
Investment research summary
Urban Edge Properties is paid to own, operate, and redevelop retail real estate in densely populated urban and suburban communities. Tenants pay rent under leases that generally pass property operating costs to the tenant, while UE generates income from rent, property management, and redevelopment of its portfolio in supply-constrained Northeast and Mid-Atlantic locations.
The moat is built from its urban location focus, in-fill redevelopment capabilities, tenant relationships in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, and local market knowledge. The moat is modest and can narrow if urban retail demand weakens further, larger competitors with lower capital costs enter its markets, or redevelopment returns fail to exceed the cost of capital.
The thesis can fail if interest rates stay high, tenant bankruptcies increase in the retail sector, work-from-home trends permanently reduce urban foot traffic, occupancy falls, lease rents decline, acquisition spreads compress, equity becomes dilutive, or the Northeast economy underperforms the national average.
CEO Jeffrey Olson has led the company through its spinoff and subsequent portfolio transformation. The company has been shedding non-core assets and reinvesting in higher-quality properties. The main test is whether leasing spreads, occupancy gains, and FFO per share growth can continue in a retail environment that has seen structural shifts in consumer behavior.
The retail REIT sector faces a mixed outlook. Grocery-anchored and necessity-based retail has fared well, while power centers and unanchored retail face more headwinds. Urban properties are recovering from pandemic-era lows but remain exposed to hybrid work patterns and changing commuter traffic. The long-term trend depends on population growth in UE markets, consumer spending, and the supply of well-located retail space.
The verified scenario model produced about $30.00 in the bull case, $23.60 in the base case, and $17.30 in the bearish case using estimated forward FFO as the earnings proxy. At $22.76, UE trades near the base case, offering a modest margin of safety. The upside case depends on FFO growth continuing and the market applying a reasonable REIT multiple.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| UE price | $22.76 close on July 10, 2026 | Google Finance and Barchart | July 13, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | About $2.87 billion, verified as $22.76 x 126.02 million shares | Google Finance shares data and financial_rigor.py market cap verification | July 13, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 126.02 million shares outstanding | Google Finance and Barchart | July 13, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | Revenue approximately $471.9 million, net income approximately $93.5 million based on available quarterly data and fiscal year filings | Barchart fundamentals and TradingView | July 13, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 financial results | Approximately $124.5 million revenue, $22.6 million net income, and EPS of about $0.18 | Google Finance income statement and TradingView earnings data | July 13, 2026 |
| Dividend and valuation | $0.84 annual dividend, 3.69% forward dividend yield, 26.47x trailing PE, 15.78x estimated P/FFO, 2.07x PB, and 6.07x PS | Barchart fundamentals and financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 13, 2026 |
| 52-week range and beta | 52-week high $24.11, 52-week low $18.46, 60-month beta 0.97 (Barchart), 1-year beta 0.46 (TradingView) | Barchart overview and TradingView key stats | July 13, 2026 |
| Analyst ratings | Moderate Buy rating from 8 analysts. Average price target $23.67, range $22.00 to $25.00 | Barchart overview and Google Finance analyst ratings | July 13, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day MA estimated near $21.80 to $22.20, 200-day MA estimated near $20.50 to $21.00, RSI near 50-55, 20-day average volume ~1.08 million shares, IV 38.3% | Barchart technical opinion and TradingView | July 13, 2026 |
| Three-scenario valuation model | Bull case $30.00, base case $23.60, and bear case $17.30 based on a 3-year estimated FFO proxy of ~$1.44, 5% to 0% annual growth, and 12x to 18x terminal FFO multiples | financial_rigor.py three-scenario calculation | July 13, 2026 |
| Next earnings date | Q2 2026 earnings scheduled for August 6, 2026 after market close | Barchart earnings estimates | July 13, 2026 |
| Data source gap | FFO per share is estimated from GAAP data and reported multiples because direct AFFO per share disclosure is not consistently available for all quarters from free third-party sources at this cutoff. Annual financial data uses a mix of TradingView, Barchart, and Google Finance. Price, shares, and market cap are verified. Technical indicators are approximate and may vary by provider. | Methodology notes | July 13, 2026 |
This UE AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of July 13, 2026 and may be wrong if financial results, occupancy, tenant credit, leasing conditions, interest rates, acquisition activity, dividend policy, or market conditions change.
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