TELUS Corporation research snapshot
TU AI stock analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff reads TELUS Corporation as a Canadian connectivity and digital services company in a deliberate turnaround. At the July 31, 2026 close the NYSE ADR was $9.56, down 11.23% on the day after the Q2 2026 report, and 1.57 billion shares implied a market capitalization near $15.01 billion, verified as $9.56 times 1.57 billion shares with 0.01% deviation across the StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics pages. The July 31, 2026 report cut the quarterly dividend 55% to C$0.1875 per share, revised 2026 guidance down to flat or negative 2% service revenue and negative 2% to negative 4% adjusted EBITDA, raised capital spending to about C$2.6 billion, and recorded a C$1.83 billion net loss driven by a C$2.1 billion non-cash impairment of the TELUS Digital cash-generating unit. New CEO Victor Dodig, the former CIBC chief executive, set a target of 3.0x or lower net debt to adjusted EBITDA by the end of 2028, put a moratorium on acquisitions, and is monetizing assets. The TU AI stock forecast uses scenarios rather than a precise prediction, the chart is below its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, and this page is informational research rather than investment advice.
Current price
$9.56 NYSE close, July 31, 2026
Market cap
$15.01 billion
AI score
42 / 100
Rating
Turnaround under way at a reset valuation
Trend status
Bearish downtrend below the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | TELUS sells wireless, fibre internet, television, security, health, agriculture technology, and digital customer-experience services on a recurring basis. The core telecom business is stable, while TELUS Digital is shrinking as AI automation replaces legacy services. | High |
| Moat | Spectrum, the TELUS PureFibre network, licences, brand, distribution, customer relationships, and enterprise integrations form a durable moat, but competition, regulation, and lower immigration limit pricing power and new-subscriber growth. | Medium-high |
| Management | New CEO Victor Dodig, the former CIBC chief executive, and new CFO Gopi Chande moved decisively: a 55% dividend reset, a moratorium on acquisitions, a 3.0x leverage target for 2028, and active asset monetization. Execution is credible but unproven. | Medium |
| Financial trend | The trend is down. Q2 2026 produced a C$1.83 billion net loss driven by a C$2.1 billion non-cash impairment of TELUS Digital, adjusted EPS of C$0.16 was down 27% year over year, and 2026 guidance was cut to flat or negative 2% service revenue and negative 2% to negative 4% adjusted EBITDA. | High |
| Valuation | The multiple reset with the price. As of August 2, 2026, TU traded near 22.6x trailing GAAP EPS, 14.2x forward earnings, 9.5x trailing free cash flow, and 9.7x EV/EBITDA, cheaper than a year ago but against falling earnings. | Medium |
| Technical trend | TU closed at $9.56 on July 31, 2026, below its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, with 14-day RSI near 32.5, stochastic near 18, and 14-day ADX near 38 with negative directional movement dominating, a defined downtrend near the $9.22 52-week low. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is high. Leverage sits near 3.5x net debt to adjusted EBITDA, 2026 guidance is lower, the dividend was just reset, TELUS Digital faces accelerated AI-driven churn, a registration statement filed July 31, 2026 signals a possible offering, and low immigration reduces the addressable market. | High |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and cross-checked math that matched across StockAnalysis.com, the Q2 2026 earnings release, and the earnings call. Lower for forward estimates because cash flow, leverage, asset sales, and regulation are uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low-to-medium certainty. The page provides a research framework and scenario ranges, not a buy or sell instruction, and the turnaround thesis needs evidence of free cash flow growth and lower leverage before it becomes compelling. | Low-medium |
TU AI stock forecast
The TU AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close of $9.56 and a forward adjusted EPS near $0.67 per ADR, derived from the 2026 consensus estimate of C$0.90 converted near 1.40 CAD to USD. The three-scenario framework produced a bearish area near $5, a base area near $8, and a bullish area near $12 before dividends, using adjusted EPS growth of negative 2%, 3%, and 10% and exit multiples of 8x, 10.5x, and 13x over three years. The average analyst price target was $14.17, higher than the mechanical scenario ranges, reflecting expectations of a recovery that still needs to be delivered.
$11 to $13
More likely if mobile network revenue keeps growing, ARPU stabilizes, TELUS Digital CX AI offsets the legacy decline, asset sales close above expectations, free cash flow grows toward the 10% compounded target, and leverage falls toward 3x, letting the market re-rate a recovering adjusted EPS path.
$7 to $9
More likely if 2026 lands at the revised flat-to-down guidance, adjusted EBITDA declines 2% to 4% as guided, free cash flow comes in near C$1.8 billion, deleveraging proceeds gradually, and the stock stays near a low-teens forward multiple.
$4 to $6
More likely if TELUS Digital keeps shrinking faster, competition or regulation intensifies, low-immigration headwinds persist, asset sales disappoint or an equity offering dilutes holders, leverage stays above 3x beyond 2028, or the dividend needs another reset.
TU AI technical analysis
TU AI technical analysis is bearish as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $9.56 on July 31, 2026, below its 5-day average near $10.51, its 20-day near $10.40, its 50-day near $11.25, its 100-day near $11.95, and its 200-day near $12.87. The 14-day RSI was near 32.5 and stochastic near 18, approaching oversold, while the 14-day ADX near 38 with negative directional movement above positive confirmed a downtrend. The July 31 close sat near the $9.22 52-week low set the same day.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $9.56 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close; market-cap math uses 1.57 billion shares outstanding. |
| Near support | $9.22 | The 52-week low set on July 31, 2026, which also marked the low of the earnings-day range from $9.22 to $10.05. |
| Secondary support | $8 to $9 | A round-number risk band below the 52-week low. It is a monitoring reference, not a guaranteed floor. |
| Near resistance | $10.40 | The 20-day moving average was near $10.40 on July 31, 2026, the first overhead zone a bounce must reclaim. |
| 50-day moving average | $11.25 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 50-day average near $11.25, well above the current price. |
| 200-day moving average | $12.87 | The 200-day trend line near $12.87 is below the 52-week high of $16.72 and marks a major downtrend level. |
| Momentum | RSI near 32, stochastic near 18 | The 14-day RSI was near 32.5 and stochastic near 17.7%, approaching oversold, but the negative directional index remains dominant, so a bounce is not confirmed. |
| Volume | About 7.9 million average shares | The 20-day average volume was near 7.9 million shares, with about 32.8 million shares trading on July 31 as the market absorbed the dividend reset and guidance cut. |
| Volatility | Elevated near the reset | Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 57% and 20-day near 49%, so position sizing should account for large swings around earnings and balance sheet news. |
| Invalidation | Reclaim of $10.40 or a break of $9.22 | A sustained close above the 20-day average near $10.40 would weaken the downtrend, while a decisive break below $9.22 opens the secondary support band. Define your own stop and position size from live data. |
TU AI trading strategy
The TU AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for a capital-intensive telecom in transition, not personalized financial advice. Update it with live price and volume data, quarterly results, subscriber KPIs, free cash flow, leverage, asset-sale progress, and any equity offering or regulatory development.
In a confirmed downtrend, wait for TU to build a base and reclaim the 20-day moving average near $10.40, then hold above the 50-day near $11.25 with convincing volume. Pair the chart evidence with stable subscriber KPIs, free cash flow near the C$1.8 billion guide, and no new dilution or guidance cut.
A failed reclaim of the moving averages or a new close below the $9.22 low is a reason to stand aside. Do not average down into a falling knife after a dividend reset and guidance revision.
If TU approaches the $9.22 52-week low, compare the price reaction with revised guidance, free cash flow, net debt to adjusted EBITDA, dividend coverage under the 45% to 60% payout target, and asset-sale headlines. An oversold RSI alone is not a floor after a balance sheet event.
Define position size and an invalidation level before entry. Elevated volatility, the possible securities offering, and regulatory or competition news can turn a support zone into a deeper decline.
Track mobile and internet net additions, churn, ARPU, service revenue, adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow versus the C$1.8 billion guide, capital intensity toward 10%, net debt to adjusted EBITDA toward 3x, TELUS Digital revenue and CX AI mix, asset-sale proceeds, dividend coverage, CRTC actions, and any equity offering.
Reduce confidence if free cash flow misses guidance, leverage stays above 3.5x, TELUS Digital decline accelerates, another impairment appears, or the dividend policy changes again.
Investment research summary
Customers pay TELUS for mobile and fixed connectivity, fibre internet, television, security, health services, agriculture technology, and customer-experience services. The core value proposition is dependable, repeated network access for households and businesses.
The trend is deteriorating in the short term. Q2 2026 delivered a C$1.83 billion net loss driven by a C$2.1 billion non-cash impairment of TELUS Digital, adjusted EPS of C$0.16 down 27%, and revised 2026 guidance to flat or negative 2% service revenue and negative 2% to negative 4% adjusted EBITDA.
TELUS benefits from spectrum, the PureFibre network, licences, brand, distribution, customer relationships, and enterprise integrations. The moat is durable but not absolute because national competitors, wholesale rules, low immigration, and new technologies limit pricing power and growth.
The thesis fails if TELUS Digital keeps losing legacy AI services faster than CX AI replaces them, another impairment or an equity offering appears, free cash flow misses the C$1.8 billion guide, leverage stays above 3x beyond 2028, the dividend needs another reset, or competition and regulation compress margins.
The management test is capital allocation under a new CEO. Victor Dodig reset the dividend 55%, paused acquisitions, targeted 3.0x leverage by 2028, and is monetizing assets including parts of TELUS Health, while Gopi Chande is the new CFO. The plan is decisive but needs proof.
Data consumption, fibre, 5G, health, and AI-enabling services support long-term demand, but mature Canadian telecom penetration, lower immigration, price competition, spectrum costs, regulation, and the rapid automation of legacy digital services are near-term headwinds.
The price reset to about 14x forward earnings and 9.5x trailing free cash flow after the dividend cut, but earnings are falling, so the margin of safety depends on whether free cash flow, leverage, and customer metrics improve from the lower 2026 base.
The research stance is watchful. A stronger case needs verified free cash flow near or above the C$1.8 billion guide, falling leverage toward 3x, stable subscriber metrics, TELUS Digital stabilization, and a chart base. A weaker case is signalled by another guidance cut, dilution, or a slower balance sheet repair.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| TU price | $9.56 at the July 31, 2026 close, down 11.23% on the day | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $15.01 billion, computed as $9.56 x 1.57 billion shares outstanding with 0.01% deviation | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 net loss and impairment | Net loss of C$1.83 billion versus a C$245 million loss a year ago, driven by a C$2.1 billion pre-tax non-cash intangible asset and goodwill impairment of the TELUS Digital cash-generating unit | TELUS Q2 2026 earnings release | July 31, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue and margins | Operating revenues of C$4.92 billion down 2%, consolidated service revenue of C$4.4 billion down 1%, adjusted EBITDA of C$1.78 billion down 2% | TELUS Q2 2026 earnings release | July 31, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 earnings per share | Adjusted EPS of C$0.16, down 27% from C$0.22 a year ago, with negative basic EPS due to the impairment | TELUS Q2 2026 earnings release and call | July 31, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 cash flow | Cash provided by operating activities of C$1.34 billion up 15%, free cash flow of C$545 million up 2%, capital expenditures of C$678 million | TELUS Q2 2026 earnings release | July 31, 2026 |
| Dividend reset | Quarterly dividend reset 55% to C$0.1875 per share, annualized C$0.75 versus C$1.6736 previously, effective October 1, 2026, with about C$2.7 billion of cumulative cash savings through 2028 and the DRIP discount removed | TELUS Q2 2026 earnings release and call | July 31, 2026 |
| FY2026 revised guidance | Service revenue flat to negative 2% (from 2% to 4% growth), adjusted EBITDA negative 2% to negative 4% (from 2% to 4% growth), free cash flow about C$1.8 billion (from about C$2.45 billion), capital expenditures about C$2.6 billion (from about C$2.3 billion), with an incremental C$100 million in restructuring costs | TELUS Q2 2026 earnings release and call | July 31, 2026 |
| Leverage and balance sheet plan | Net debt to adjusted EBITDA of 3.5x at June 30, 2026, down from 3.7x a year ago, targeting 3.0x or lower by year-end 2028, with total available liquidity of C$2.7 billion and a payout ratio target of 45% to 60% of free cash flow from 2027 | TELUS Q2 2026 earnings call | July 31, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 segment results | TELUS Technology Solutions service revenue of C$3.3 billion and adjusted EBITDA of C$1.6 billion flat, mobile network revenue of C$1.7 billion up 1%, fixed data services stable at C$1.2 billion, TELUS Health service revenue of C$533 million up 4%, TELUS Digital revenue down 10%, Agriculture and Consumer Goods service revenue of C$90 million up 6% | TELUS Q2 2026 earnings release and call | July 31, 2026 |
| Subscriber metrics | Mobile phone net additions of 17,000, internet net additions of 20,000, connected device net additions of 187,000, blended mobile phone churn of 1.08%, and mobile phone ARPU of C$56.36 declining 0.4% | TELUS Q2 2026 earnings release | July 31, 2026 |
| Free cash flow growth commitment | Management committed to a minimum 10% compounded annual free cash flow growth over 2027 and 2028 off the lower 2026 base of about C$1.8 billion | TELUS Q2 2026 earnings call | July 31, 2026 |
| TELUS Digital impairment detail | The C$2.1 billion impairment reflects faster-than-expected automation of legacy content moderation, ad relevancy, and search services for hyperscale clients, extended sales cycles, and compressed deal sizes, with CX AI now more than half of TELUS Digital revenue | TELUS Q2 2026 earnings call | July 31, 2026 |
| Asset monetization | Active review of non-core assets including parts of TELUS Health, non-real-estate assets, and the TELUS Ventures portfolio; the Terrion tower sale of a 49.9% stake to La Caisse in September 2025 generated C$1.26 billion of proceeds | TELUS Q2 2026 earnings call | July 31, 2026 |
| Securities offering filing | TELUS filed registration statements with the SEC on July 31, 2026 related to a securities offering, per the StockAnalysis.com filings feed | StockAnalysis.com filings feed | July 31, 2026 |
| FY2025 full-year results | Revenue of C$20.35 billion up 1.03% from C$20.14 billion, net income of C$1.11 billion up 12%, and free cash flow of C$2.35 billion | StockAnalysis.com financials, S&P Global | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM results as of June 30, 2026 | Revenue of C$20.21 billion down 1.06%, net income of negative C$919 million, and free cash flow of C$2.40 billion | StockAnalysis.com financials, S&P Global | August 2, 2026 |
| Balance sheet as of June 30, 2026 | Cash and investments of C$1.39 billion, total debt of C$31.46 billion, and net debt of about C$30.07 billion on the StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation snapshot | 22.58x trailing GAAP EPS, 14.18x forward earnings, 1.03x sales, 1.28x book value, 9.48x free cash flow, 9.69x EV/EBITDA, and an Altman Z-Score of 0.89 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold rating across 18 analysts with an average target of $14.17, a low of $12, a median of $14.50, and a high of $16 | StockAnalysis.com forecast, S&P Global and TipRanks | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 4 Strong Buy, 3 Buy, 8 Hold, 1 Sell, and 2 Strong Sell out of 18 | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | August 2, 2026 |
| Recent analyst actions | CIBC downgraded to Hold with a target cut from $17 to $11 on July 31, Morgan Stanley downgraded to Sell with a target cut from $14 to $9.24 on July 21, Barclays moved from $14 to $12 on July 16, and TD Cowen maintained Buy at $14 on July 22 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA near $10.51, 20-day SMA near $10.40, 50-day SMA near $11.25, 100-day SMA near $11.95, 200-day SMA near $12.87, 14-day RSI near 32.5, 14-day ADX near 37.8, and 14-day historical volatility near 57% | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 2, 2026 |
| Short interest | 66.9 million shares short, 4.25% of shares outstanding, and 11.1 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 2, 2026 |
| Price history | 52-week range of $9.22 to $16.72, down about 41% over the past 52 weeks, with a beta near 0.74 | StockAnalysis.com quote | August 2, 2026 |
This TU AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial planning, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios use available public data and simplified assumptions as of the stated cutoff date, and they may be wrong, especially after the July 31, 2026 dividend reset and guidance revision.
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