Trevi Therapeutics, Inc. research snapshot
TRVI AI stock analysis reads Trevi Therapeutics as a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing Haduvio (oral nalbuphine ER) for chronic cough in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), non-IPF interstitial lung disease and refractory chronic cough (RCC). This analysis is not a certain price prediction. At the August 4, 2026 cutoff, the latest verified close used was $17.90, market capitalization was about $2.54 billion, and the central question is whether the two planned Phase 3 trials confirm the Phase 2b CORAL efficacy and safety data needed to support a New Drug Application. The company ended the first quarter of 2026 with $171.8 million in cash and marketable securities, reported a net loss of $13.2 million for the quarter, and after a $162 million follow-on offering in April 2026 expects cash runway into 2030. Analysts at 11 firms rate the stock Strong Buy with an average target of $26.18, and GSK discontinuing camlipixant in RCC removed a major competitive overhang. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$17.90 close on August 3, 2026
Market cap
$2.54 billion per StockAnalysis.com real-time data on August 3, 2026; Yahoo Finance reported $2.568B intraday
AI score
54 / 100
Rating
Clinical-stage biotech with the strongest late-stage chronic cough pipeline after GSK discontinued camlipixant, positive Phase 2b CORAL data in IPF cough, FDA-aligned Phase 3 program, and cash runway into 2030, but still no revenue and binary Phase 3 risk
Trend status
Strong uptrend. Stock up about 140% over the past year, trading above the 20-day ($17.98), 50-day ($16.50) and 200-day ($13.20) moving averages, below the 52-week high of $20.22
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Trevi has no approved products or revenue. Haduvio is the first and only investigational therapy to show a statistically significant reduction in cough frequency in both IPF-related chronic cough and RCC trials, which is a strong scientific signal, but there is still no commercial track record. | Low |
| Moat | Haduvio benefits from issued and pending patents, a European patent expected to expire in 2039 for IPF-related chronic cough, orphan drug designations, and now reduced competition after GSK discontinued camlipixant in RCC. The moat is prospective and could narrow if generic nalbuphine formulations or new P2X3 programs emerge. | Low-medium |
| Management | Management completed an End-of-Phase 2 meeting with FDA alignment, initiated Phase 3 trials, raised $162 million on favorable terms, and extended cash runway into 2030. Co-founder and CEO Jennifer Good has guided the company from preclinical work through Phase 3 trials. Key-person risk is moderate for a 34-employee biotech. | Low-medium |
| Financial trend | Trevi has no revenue and a net loss of $45.61 million TTM. Q1 2026 cash and marketable securities were $171.8 million, minimal debt, and after the April offering management expects runway into 2030 through potential FDA approval in IPF-related chronic cough. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | There is no P/E because earnings are negative. Price/book is 15.20x and enterprise value is about $2.45 billion. The market cap of roughly $2.54 billion is entirely probability-weighted pipeline value. The average analyst target of $26.18 implies about 46% upside from the $17.90 cutoff. | Low |
| Technical trend | TRVI is in a strong uptrend. Price is above the 20-day ($17.98), 50-day ($16.50) and 200-day ($13.20) moving averages. RSI at 52.02 is neutral, ADX at 32.71 confirms a strong trend, and +DI (21.21) is well above -DI (13.48). The stock has pulled back from the 52-week high of $20.22. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Very high. Key risks are Phase 3 failure, safety or abuse-potential questions, regulatory rejection, RCC enrollment delays, competition returning to the chronic cough space, dilution from future raises, and the binary nature of late-stage biotech trials. | High |
| AI confidence | Low confidence for clinical outcomes and valuation. Medium confidence for financial data, cash position, technical levels and analyst consensus. | Low-medium |
| Investment certainty | Very low. A clinical-stage biotech with binary Phase 3 outcomes is inherently speculative, even with a strong balance sheet and reduced competition. Position sizing must account for the possibility of total capital loss. | Very low |
TRVI AI stock forecast
The TRVI AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $17.90 cutoff price. It does not claim that AI can predict a specific future price. The bullish case requires positive Phase 3 data in IPF-related chronic cough, a second positive late-stage readout, FDA approval and a successful launch. The base case assumes clinical timelines extend but the pipeline stays viable. The bearish case assumes Phase 3 failure, safety issues or renewed competition.
$30 to $40
More likely if the two Phase 3 trials in IPF-related chronic cough meet primary endpoints, the Phase 2b RCC and non-IPF ILD trials read positive, the FDA accepts a New Drug Application, and Haduvio captures a meaningful share of a chronic cough market with no approved therapy. Aligns with BMO Capital ($36) and Clear Street ($40) targets.
$20 to $28
More likely if Phase 3 trials stay on schedule with topline data in the second half of 2027 and the first half of 2028, enrollment and SSRE analysis in the RCC trial proceed without material delay, and the stock trades around the average analyst target of $26.18.
$8 to $14
More likely if a Phase 3 trial misses its primary cough frequency endpoint, safety or abuse signals emerge, the FDA requires additional cardiovascular or abuse-potential studies, RCC enrollment stalls, or a new competitor re-enters the space after GSK exited.
TRVI AI technical analysis
TRVI AI technical analysis starts from the $17.90 August 3 close used for this August 4 static page. Barchart technical data showed the stock above the 20-day ($17.98), 50-day ($16.50) and 200-day ($13.20) moving averages, reflecting a strong multi-month uptrend. RSI at 52.02 was neutral. ADX at 32.71 confirmed a strong trend, with +DI (21.21) well above -DI (13.48). ATR of $1.08 (6.04%) reflected elevated daily volatility typical of a clinical-stage biotech. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $17.90 | Latest verified close used for this page as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis.com real-time quote on August 3, 2026. |
| Near support | $17.46 to $17.98 | Support planning zone around the day low and the 20-day moving average. A hold above this area would keep the short-term uptrend intact. |
| Secondary support | $16.50 | The 50-day moving average. A break below this level would weaken the intermediate-term trend. |
| Major support | $13.20 | The 200-day moving average. A sustained break below this level would signal a potential trend reversal from the long rally. |
| Near resistance | $20.22 | The 52-week high. A breakout above this level with volume would be a strong technical signal. |
| 20-day moving average | $17.98 | Barchart showed TRVI just above the 20-day MA, confirming the short-term uptrend. |
| 50-day moving average | $16.50 | The 50-day MA has acted as support during the rally from the $6.55 low. |
| 200-day moving average | $13.20 | TRVI is well above the 200-day MA, reflecting a sustained long-term uptrend. |
| Momentum | RSI 52.02, ADX 32.71 | RSI is neutral. ADX above 30 indicates a strong trend. The +DI (21.21) is above -DI (13.48), confirming bullish directional momentum. |
| Volume | 1,255,641 shares on August 3 | Volume was below the 20-day average of about 2.52 million, suggesting some pause in buying conviction near the highs. |
| Volatility | ATR 14 near $1.08 (6.04%) | Position sizing should account for high daily swings typical of clinical-stage biotech stocks, with 14-day historical volatility above 80%. |
| Invalidation | Close below $17.46, then $16.50 | A close below the 20-day MA near $17.98 and the day low weakens the near-term trend. A break below $16.50 (50-day MA) would challenge the intermediate uptrend. |
TRVI AI trading strategy
The TRVI AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines cash position awareness, clinical timeline awareness, technical confirmation, position sizing, and clear invalidation levels. Clinical-stage biotech stocks can gap significantly on trial data, so overnight gap risk must be built into any plan.
Look for TRVI to hold above the 20-day MA near $17.98 and the 50-day MA near $16.50. A breakout above the $20.22 52-week high with volume could confirm trend continuation. Monitor the August 6 Q2 2026 earnings call, Phase 3 trial initiations, and the RCC trial SSRE analysis in the fourth quarter of 2026.
A close below the 20-day MA or below $17.46 should reduce confidence. Clinical-stage biotech can gap down sharply on a failed trial, so stop-losses may not execute at the intended level.
If TRVI pulls back toward the $17.46 to $17.98 support zone without a fundamental thesis break, look for price stabilization on reduced volume. Compare with upcoming catalyst timing, cash runway updates, and insider activity before adding risk.
Do not average down solely because the stock has been in an uptrend. A pullback may precede a Phase 3 data readout that decides the investment thesis. Size accordingly.
Track the two Phase 3 IPF chronic cough trials, the Phase 2b RCC trial with its SSRE analysis, the non-IPF ILD Phase 2b trial, quarterly cash and burn data from August 6 Q2 2026 results, and any competitive pipeline moves now that GSK exited camlipixant.
Lower conviction if cash burn accelerates, clinical timelines slip, safety signals emerge, or a competitor returns to chronic cough. Recognize that the $20.22 high already reflects significant optimism about the pipeline.
Investment research summary
Trevi Therapeutics is developing Haduvio (oral nalbuphine ER), a kappa agonist and mu antagonist that acts on the cough reflex arc centrally and peripherally, to treat chronic cough in IPF, non-IPF ILD and refractory chronic cough. There are no FDA-approved therapies for chronic cough in IPF or RCC. Haduvio is the first investigational therapy to show a statistically significant reduction in cough frequency in both IPF-related chronic cough and RCC trials, giving the company a credible shot at being first to market.
Haduvio is protected by issued and pending patents, including a European patent for IPF-related chronic cough expected to expire in 2039, and orphan drug designations in IPF cough. The competitive picture improved materially in July 2026 when GSK discontinued camlipixant in RCC, leaving Haduvio as the most advanced late-stage chronic cough candidate. The moat is prospective only and depends on successful Phase 3 data and approval.
The thesis can fail if the Phase 3 IPF trials miss the primary cough frequency endpoint, if safety or abuse-potential issues outweigh efficacy, if RCC trial enrollment or the SSRE analysis slips into 2027, if the FDA requires additional studies that extend timelines, or if a new competitor or generic nalbuphine formulation emerges. Phase 2b CORAL data were positive, but Phase 3 trials can still disappoint.
Management secured FDA alignment at an End-of-Phase 2 meeting, initiated two Phase 3 IPF trials, and raised $162 million in April 2026 to extend cash runway into 2030. Co-founder and CEO Jennifer Good leads a compact team with co-founder and CSO Thomas Sciascia and CDO James Cassella. Execution on Phase 3 timelines and a future commercial build remain the core management challenge.
Chronic cough is an emerging treatment category with no FDA-approved therapy in IPF or RCC. About 140,000 US patients have IPF and two-thirds have uncontrolled chronic cough, about 228,000 have non-IPF ILD with 50-60% affected, and 2 to 3 million have RCC. Trevi cites a potential addressable market in the billions of dollars, and reduced competition after GSK halted camlipixant strengthens the long-term trend.
At $17.90, the market capitalization of about $2.54 billion values the company entirely on pipeline probability with no revenue anchor. Negative P/E, 15.20x P/B and negative FCF reflect a pre-commercial biotech. The average analyst target of $26.18 and strong buy consensus reflect confidence after the GSK exit, but there is no meaningful margin of safety given the binary nature of late-stage drug development.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| TRVI closing price | $17.90 close on August 3, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $2.54 billion; Yahoo Finance reported $2.568B intraday | StockAnalysis.com and Yahoo Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Cash and marketable securities | $171.8 million at March 31, 2026 | Trevi Q1 2026 press release | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM net income | -$45.61 million | Yahoo Finance key statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM EPS | -$0.32 | Yahoo Finance key statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net loss | -$13.2 million | Trevi Q1 2026 press release | August 4, 2026 |
| Levered free cash flow | -$28.53 million (TTM) | Yahoo Finance cash flow data | August 4, 2026 |
| Price to book (mrq) | 15.20x | Yahoo Finance valuation measures | August 4, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | $2.45 billion | Yahoo Finance key statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Total debt to equity | 0.40% | Yahoo Finance key statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $6.55 to $20.22 | Yahoo Finance and StockAnalysis.com | August 4, 2026 |
| Moving averages and momentum | 20-day MA $17.98, 50-day MA $16.50, 200-day MA $13.20, RSI 52.02, ADX 32.71 | Barchart technical analysis snapshots | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst ratings | Strong Buy from 11 analysts, average target $26.18, range $20 to $36. BMO Capital initiated at $36; B. Riley at $31; H.C. Wainwright at $24; Needham at $23; Morgan Stanley at $20. | StockAnalysis.com forecast page and Yahoo Finance | August 4, 2026 |
This TRVI AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 4, 2026 and can be wrong. Clinical-stage biotech investments carry a risk of total capital loss.
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