Trevi Therapeutics, Inc. research snapshot
TRVI AI stock analysis reads Trevi Therapeutics as a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing Haduvio (oral nalbuphine ER) for chronic cough in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and refractory chronic cough, as well as pruritus indications. This analysis is not a certain price prediction. At the July 13, 2026 cutoff, the latest verified close used was $18.40, market capitalization was about $2.61 billion, and the central question is whether Haduvio Phase 2b and Phase 3 data can confirm efficacy and safety to support a New Drug Application. The company had $171.78 million in cash as of the most recent quarter, a net loss of $45.61 million TTM, and negative levered free cash flow of $28.53 million. Analysts at Needham rate the stock a Buy with a $23 price target. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$18.40 close on July 9, 2026
Market cap
$2.61 billion calculated from $18.40 x 141.94 million shares; Yahoo Finance reported $2.612B intraday
AI score
44 / 100
Rating
Clinical-stage biotech with a promising Haduvio pipeline for chronic cough and pruritus, strong recent momentum, but no revenue, negative earnings, and binary clinical risk
Trend status
Strong uptrend. Stock up 198% over the past year, trading above all major moving averages, near the 52-week high of $20.15
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 13, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Trevi has no approved products or revenue. Business quality is unproven and depends entirely on Haduvio clinical and regulatory success. The company has a clear scientific rationale for nalbuphine ER in chronic cough and pruritus, but there is no commercial track record. | Low |
| Moat | If approved, Haduvio would benefit from patent protection, orphan drug designations, and first-in-class positioning for chronic cough in IPF. The moat is prospective only and would narrow if competitors develop alternative therapies or if generic nalbuphine formulations emerge. | Low |
| Management | Management has advanced Haduvio through Phase 2a and into Phase 2b trials, secured a license agreement with Keenova Therapeutics, and maintained a cash runway into 2030 after a $173 million financing. Capital allocation has been focused on pipeline development. Key-person risk is moderate for a small biotech. | Low-medium |
| Financial trend | Trevi has no revenue, negative net income of $45.61 million TTM, and negative free cash flow of $28.53 million TTM. The balance sheet is supported by $171.78 million in cash with minimal debt. The cash runway extends into 2030, reducing near-term dilution risk. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | There is no P/E because Trevi has negative earnings. Price/book is 15.33x. At $2.61 billion market cap with no revenue, valuation is entirely based on the probability-weighted future value of Haduvio. The Needham analyst target of $23 implies about 25% upside from the $18.40 cutoff. | Low |
| Technical trend | TRVI is in a strong uptrend. Price is above the 20-day ($17.26), 50-day ($15.35), and 200-day ($12.52) moving averages. RSI at 57.87 is neutral. ADX at 45.18 indicates a strong trend. The stock has rallied from a 52-week low of $6.03 to near the high of $20.15. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Very high. Key risks are clinical trial failure, regulatory rejection, safety issues, competition from other chronic cough therapies (including Merck and GSK pipeline candidates), dilution from future equity raises, and the binary nature of biotech investing. | High |
| AI confidence | Low confidence for clinical outcomes and valuation. Medium confidence for financial data, cash position, and technical levels. | Low-medium |
| Investment certainty | Very low. Clinical-stage biotech is inherently speculative. The strong price momentum does not reduce the binary risk of pipeline failure. Position sizing must account for the risk of total capital loss. | Very low |
TRVI AI stock forecast
The TRVI AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $18.40 cutoff price. It does not claim that AI can predict a specific future price. The bullish case requires positive Phase 2b and Phase 3 data for Haduvio in chronic cough, regulatory approval, and commercial adoption. The base case assumes clinical timelines extend but the pipeline remains viable. The bearish case assumes clinical setbacks, regulatory delays, or competition erodes the opportunity.
$30 to $40
More likely if Haduvio Phase 2b CORAL trial in IPF cough meets primary endpoints, Phase 3 data confirms efficacy, the FDA accepts a New Drug Application, and commercial launch targets a meaningful share of the chronic cough market in IPF and refractory chronic cough.
$14 to $22
More likely if clinical timelines extend, the CORAL trial reads out but with modest efficacy, regulatory review takes longer than expected, and the stock trades in a range reflecting continued pipeline optionality rather than near-term approval.
$5 to $10
More likely if the CORAL trial misses its primary endpoint, safety concerns emerge, the FDA requires additional studies, Merck or GSK chronic cough candidates advance faster, or the company needs dilutive financing at a depressed valuation.
TRVI AI technical analysis
TRVI AI technical analysis starts from the $18.40 July 9 close used for this July 13 static page. Barchart technical data showed the stock above the 20-day ($17.26), 50-day ($15.35), and 200-day ($12.52) moving averages, reflecting a strong multi-month uptrend. RSI at 57.87 was neutral, not overbought. ADX at 45.18 confirmed a strong trend. ATR of $0.95 (5.31%) reflected elevated daily volatility typical of a clinical-stage biotech. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $18.40 | Latest verified close used for this page as of the July 13, 2026 data cutoff. After-hours at $18.28. |
| Near support | $17.00 to $17.26 | Support planning zone around the 20-day moving average. A hold above this level would maintain the short-term uptrend. |
| Secondary support | $15.00 to $15.35 | The 50-day moving average area. A break below this zone would weaken the intermediate-term trend. |
| Major support | $12.00 to $12.52 | The 200-day moving average. A sustained break below this level would signal a potential trend reversal from the long rally. |
| Near resistance | $20.00 to $20.15 | The 52-week high. A breakout above this level with volume would be a strong technical signal. |
| 20-day moving average | $17.26 | Barchart showed TRVI above the 20-day MA, confirming the short-term uptrend. |
| 50-day moving average | $15.35 | The 50-day MA has been a reliable support during the rally from the $6.03 low. |
| 200-day moving average | $12.52 | TRVI is well above the 200-day MA, reflecting a sustained long-term uptrend. |
| Momentum | RSI 57.87, ADX 45.18 | RSI is neutral. ADX above 40 indicates a strong trend. The +DI (30.61) is well above -DI (13.42), confirming bullish directional momentum. |
| Volume | 1,530,312 shares on July 9 | Volume was below the 20-day average of about 2.85 million, suggesting some pause in buying conviction near the 52-week high. |
| Volatility | ATR 14 near $0.95 (5.31%) | Position sizing should account for high daily swings typical of clinical-stage biotech stocks. |
| Invalidation | Close below $17.00, then $15.35 | A close below the 20-day MA near $17.26 weakens the near-term trend. A break below $15.35 (50-day MA) would challenge the intermediate uptrend. |
TRVI AI trading strategy
The TRVI AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines cash position, clinical timeline awareness, technical confirmation, position sizing, and clear invalidation levels. Clinical-stage biotech stocks can gap significantly on trial data, so overnight gap risk must be built into any plan.
Look for TRVI to hold above the 20-day MA near $17.26 and the 50-day MA near $15.35. A breakout above the $20.15 52-week high with volume could confirm trend continuation. Monitor CORAL trial enrollment updates and clinical data releases as fundamental catalysts.
A close below the 20-day MA or below $17.00 should reduce confidence. Clinical-stage biotech can gap down 30-50% on a failed trial, so stop-losses may not execute at the intended level.
If TRVI pulls back toward the $17.00 to $17.26 support zone without a fundamental thesis break, look for price stabilization on reduced volume. Compare with upcoming catalyst timeline, cash position updates, and insider trading activity.
Do not average down solely because the stock has been in an uptrend. A pullback may precede a clinical data readout that determines the investment thesis. Size accordingly.
Track CORAL Phase 2b trial enrollment and topline data timing, any safety signals from ongoing studies, cash burn rate and quarterly filings, insider buying or selling, analyst ratings changes, and competitive pipeline developments from Merck, GSK, and other chronic cough candidates.
Lower the rating if cash burn accelerates, clinical timelines slip, or competitive therapies advance. Consider that the $20.15 52-week high already reflects significant optimism about the pipeline.
Investment research summary
Trevi Therapeutics is developing Haduvio (oral nalbuphine ER), a kappa-opioid receptor agonist, to treat chronic cough in IPF and refractory chronic cough, as well as pruritus. The business has no approved products or revenue. Customers would be IPF and chronic cough patients with limited treatment options. The key question is whether Phase 2b data will support the scientific rationale that nalbuphine can suppress cough without the abuse liability of conventional opioids.
Haduvio benefits from issued and pending patents covering nalbuphine ER formulations and uses in chronic cough and pruritus. Orphan drug designations in the US and EU for IPF cough provide market exclusivity if approved. However, the moat is entirely prospective. Competing chronic cough candidates from Merck (MK-7264, gefapixant) and GSK are also in development, and generic nalbuphine could limit pricing if other formulations emerge.
The thesis can fail if the CORAL Phase 2b trial misses its primary cough frequency endpoint, if safety signals emerge that outweigh efficacy, if the FDA requires cardiovascular or abuse-potential studies that extend timelines, if competing therapies achieve approval first with better data, or if the company cannot secure partnership or financing on favorable terms. Haduvio has shown positive Phase 2a data, but translational risk from Phase 2a to Phase 2b in a different patient population is significant.
Trevi management has successfully advanced the pipeline from preclinical work through Phase 2a and into a Phase 2b CORAL trial for IPF cough. The license agreement with Keenova Therapeutics provides access to nalbuphine IP. A $173 million financing in 2026 extended the cash runway into 2030. The management challenge is executing on clinical timelines, securing regulatory approval, and eventually building commercial capabilities.
The chronic cough treatment market is emerging. IPF cough affects approximately 30,000 to 40,000 patients in the US, and refractory chronic cough affects millions. There is significant unmet need, and the FDA has shown willingness to work with developers on cough endpoints. The broader trend toward treating cough as a neurogenic condition rather than a symptom supports the Haduvio mechanism.
At $18.40, the market capitalization of $2.61 billion values the company entirely on pipeline probability, with no revenue to anchor valuation. The negative P/E, 15.33x P/B, and negative P/FCF of 92x reflect a pre-commercial biotech. The Needham $23 price target suggests upside but is based on probability-adjusted pipeline value. There is no meaningful margin of safety given the binary nature of clinical-stage drug development.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| TRVI closing price | $18.40 close on July 9, 2026 | Yahoo Finance quote snapshot | July 13, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $2.61 billion, verified as $18.40 x 141.94M shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification and Yahoo Finance | July 13, 2026 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | $171.78 million (most recent quarter) | Yahoo Finance key statistics and balance sheet data | July 13, 2026 |
| TTM net income | -$45.61 million | Yahoo Finance key statistics | July 13, 2026 |
| TTM EPS | -$0.32 | Yahoo Finance key statistics | July 13, 2026 |
| Levered free cash flow | -$28.53 million (TTM) | Yahoo Finance cash flow data | July 13, 2026 |
| Price to book (mrq) | 15.33x | Yahoo Finance valuation measures | July 13, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | $2.47 billion | Yahoo Finance key statistics | July 13, 2026 |
| Total debt to equity | 0.40% | Yahoo Finance key statistics | July 13, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $6.03 to $20.15 | Yahoo Finance quote data | July 13, 2026 |
| Moving averages and momentum | 20-day MA $17.26, 50-day MA $15.35, 200-day MA $12.52, RSI 57.87, ADX 45.18 | Barchart technical analysis snapshots | July 13, 2026 |
| Analyst ratings | Needham Buy, price target $23. Average analyst target $23.90 | Yahoo Finance analyst insights | July 13, 2026 |
This TRVI AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of July 13, 2026 and can be wrong. Clinical-stage biotech investments carry a risk of total capital loss.
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