Thor Industries, Inc. research snapshot
THO AI stock analysis reads Thor Industries as the worlds largest RV manufacturer navigating a deep cyclical downturn, with the stock basing after a steep drawdown and macro data, dealer inventory, and interest rates still driving the outlook. At the August 4, 2026 data cutoff, the latest available August 3, 2026 intraday reading was $76.57, up 2.13% from the $74.97 July 31 close, implying a market capitalization of about $3.99 billion. Q3 FY2026 results reported on June 3, 2026 showed EPS of $1.86 versus consensus of $1.94 and revenue of $2.78 billion versus consensus of $2.65 billion, and the company cut its FY2026 EPS guidance to $3.30 to $3.80. This page uses scenarios, technical levels, and source-backed facts. It is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$76.57 at the August 3, 2026, 12:54 PM EDT reading, up 1.60 or 2.13% from the $74.97 July 31 close, within a $76.20 to $78.74 day range after opening at $76.39
Market cap
$3.99 billion
AI score
55 / 100
Rating
Deep-cycle RV value play basing near the low, recovery dependent on interest rates and consumer demand
Trend status
Revenue and earnings remain under cyclical pressure and FY2026 EPS guidance was cut to $3.30 to $3.80 on June 3, 2026, but the stock has rebounded off the June 2026 low near $69.71 and reclaimed its 20-day and 50-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Thor Industries is the largest RV manufacturer in the world, selling towable and motorized RVs through brands including Airstream, Jayco, Heartland, Keystone, and Hymer across North America and Europe, with the European segment now the largest source of revenue. | High |
| Moat | Scale in procurement and manufacturing, a portfolio of iconic brands such as Airstream and Jayco, broad dealer relationships built over decades, and vertical integration through Postle Aluminum provide a real but moderate moat; dealer switching costs are low and pricing power is weak in a downturn. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Bob Martin has led the company since 2013 through the pandemic boom and the current downturn with disciplined capital allocation, conservative leverage, and dividend consistency; the main question is whether margin discipline holds as volumes fall. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Revenue declined from $11.12 billion in FY2023 to $9.58 billion in FY2025, TTM revenue is about $9.82 billion, and FY2026 revenue is guided to $9.0 billion to $9.5 billion with EPS of $3.30 to $3.80, below the $4.84 earned in FY2025. | High |
| Valuation | At the $76.57 reading, THO trades near 15.4x TTM EPS, 19.1x forward EPS, 0.90x book value, 0.40x revenue, and 19.6x trailing free cash flow, with a 2.72% dividend yield; the low absolute multiples partly reflect depressed trough earnings. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The stock is basing after falling to a 52-week low near $69.71 in June 2026 and has reclaimed its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, but it remains far below the 200-day near $91.68 with neutral momentum and a weak trend reading. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is elevated due to cyclical RV demand, sensitivity to interest rates and consumer confidence, dealer inventory dynamics, used-RV supply, oil prices, and tariff and trade policy exposure. | High |
| AI confidence | Reported facts and calculations are well supported across sources. Future share price outcomes depend heavily on macroeconomic variables that no AI or model can predict with precision. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. The business has long-term strengths and a solid balance sheet, but cyclical earnings are still falling and the recovery timeline is uncertain, so the range of outcomes is wide. | Medium-low |
THO AI stock forecast
The THO AI stock forecast uses three-year EPS and valuation scenarios around the latest $76.57 reading and the FY2027 consensus EPS near $4.58. Thor Industries is acutely cyclical, so the range of outcomes is wider than for less economically sensitive businesses. The scenario ranges below are conditional, not price promises.
$95 to $115
More likely if interest rates decline meaningfully, consumer confidence improves, RV retail demand recovers faster than expected, dealers restock inventory, Thor holds share and expands margins toward mid-cycle levels, and EPS recovers toward $5.50 to $6.00 with a mid-teens multiple.
$68 to $88
More likely if RV demand stabilizes at reduced levels, interest rates stay elevated, the company manages costs and inventory effectively, EPS holds near the $4.00 to $5.00 range, and the market assigns a 14x to 16x multiple on gradually recovering earnings.
$30 to $50
More likely if the downturn deepens or extends into a broader recession, high interest rates persist, used-RV supply pressures pricing, Thor loses share or is forced to cut the dividend, and EPS falls below $3.50 with a single-digit multiple.
THO AI technical analysis
THO AI technical analysis is neutral-to-basing at the August 4, 2026 data cutoff. The stock traded at $76.57 on August 3, 2026, up 2.13% from the $74.97 July 31 close, above its 20-day moving average near $75.42 and 50-day moving average near $76.04, just below the 100-day near $77.16, and well below the 200-day near $91.68, with a neutral 14-day RSI near 51 and a weak 14-day ADX near 14 that point to a range rather than a trend. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $76.57 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the August 3, 2026, 12:54 PM EDT reading, up 1.60 or 2.13% from the $74.97 July 31 close within a $76.20 to $78.74 day range after opening at $76.39. |
| Near support | $74.97 to $76 | The July 31 close near $74.97 and the round $75 area form the first support zone below the current price; a hold here keeps the August rebound intact. |
| Key support | $69.71 | The 52-week low reached in June 2026. A sustained close below this level would signal renewed downside in the cyclical downtrend. |
| Secondary support | $65 to $68 | The next psychological support zone below the 52-week low, representing a further 11% to 15% decline from current levels. |
| Moving averages | $75.42 to $91.68 | The stock is above the 20-day moving average near $75.42 and the 50-day near $76.04 but below the 100-day near $77.16 and the 200-day near $91.68, leaving a mixed trend picture. |
| Near resistance | $76.93 to $77.16 | The 5-day moving average near $76.93 and the 100-day moving average near $77.16 cluster in this zone and cap the immediate upside. |
| Next resistance | $80 to $82 | The prior breakdown area and a round number where sellers stepped in earlier in 2026 form the next resistance zone. |
| Major resistance | $87.18 to $91.68 | The year-to-date average price near $87.18 and the 200-day moving average near $91.68 are the main barriers to a genuine trend change. |
| Momentum | Neutral, range-bound | The 14-day RSI was near 51.3 and the 14-day ADX near 13.8 on August 3, 2026, indicating no strong trend in either direction, with +DI near 26 slightly above -DI near 18. |
| Volume | Monitor for breakouts | The 20-day average volume was near 637,000 shares, and volume on the August 3 rebound was modest relative to the 52-week average, so confirmation on higher volume would strengthen any breakout signal. |
| Volatility | Elevated | The 14-day historical volatility was near 37.4% and the 14-day ATR near $3.02, or about 4% of price, on August 3, 2026, reflecting the cyclical risk profile; position sizing should account for sharp moves around earnings. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $69.71 | A daily close below the 52-week low near $69.71 would invalidate the basing thesis. A decisive move above $80 with volume would be needed to confirm a recovery rather than a bounce. |
THO AI trading strategy
The THO AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a cyclical RV stock basing near its lows. It is not personal advice and should be paired with live prices, earnings reports, RVIA shipment data, interest rate expectations, and an independent review of risk.
Watch for THO to hold above the $69.71 52-week low and the $74.97 to $76 support zone while forming higher lows with stable RSI momentum. A catalyst would be an uptick in RVIA wholesale shipment data, improving dealer inventory reports, or a Federal Reserve rate cut signal.
A sustained close below $69.71 invalidates the base and suggests the cycle is still deteriorating. Position sizing must reflect that a value trap in a cyclical downturn can persist for quarters.
If Thor reports improving margins, dealer orders, or forward guidance alongside macro tailwinds such as lower rates or better consumer confidence, a trend-following entry above $80 with volume would capture the early recovery phase toward the $87 to $92 resistance cluster.
The cyclical recovery trade requires patience. Do not front-run the recovery without clear evidence of improving orders and margins. A guidance cut or a worsening dealer inventory report would set the timeline back.
With a $2.08 annual dividend for a 2.72% yield and a payout ratio near 42%, the dividend appears sustainable in the current downturn. Monitor free cash flow, net debt, and management commentary on the dividend.
A dividend cut would signal management expects a prolonged downturn. If free cash flow deteriorates further or leverage rises meaningfully, reduce exposure even at an attractive yield.
Investment research summary
Thor Industries converts manufacturing scale, brand equity, and dealer relationships into revenue by designing and building a wide range of recreational vehicles sold through independent dealers across North America and Europe, with the European segment now the largest source of revenue.
The moat is built on procurement and manufacturing scale, iconic brands such as Airstream and Jayco, dealer relationships built over decades, and vertical integration through Postle Aluminum. It narrows if dealer networks fragment, brand preferences weaken, or new competition enters the market at scale.
The thesis fails if the RV downturn becomes structural rather than cyclical, elevated interest rates permanently shrink the addressable market, used-RV supply takes years to clear, tariffs raise costs without offsetting pricing, or the company is forced to cut the dividend or take on excessive debt to ride out the cycle.
CEO Bob Martin has run Thor with consistent capital allocation discipline through the boom and bust, keeping leverage low and the dividend intact. The key question is whether management can protect margins and market share through the trough without sacrificing long-term competitive position.
The RV industry is inherently cyclical and tied to consumer confidence, interest rates, fuel costs, and housing markets. Secular tailwinds include an aging population with more travel time and younger buyers embracing van life, but these are currently overwhelmed by macro headwinds.
At about 15.4x TTM EPS, 0.90x book value, 0.40x revenue, and a 2.72% dividend yield, THO looks statistically cheap, but the multiples are computed against depressed earnings. Margin of safety improves if the cycle trough is near and narrows if earnings keep falling from current levels.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| THO price | $76.57 at the August 3, 2026, 12:54 PM EDT reading, up 1.60 or 2.13% from the $74.97 July 31 close, within a $76.20 to $78.74 day range after opening at $76.39 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $3.99 billion, reported by StockAnalysis.com and verified as $76.57 x 52.06 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis.com quote and share statistics and financial_rigor.py | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week range and performance | 52-week range $69.71 to $122.83, down 16.31% over the trailing 52 weeks, beta 1.33 | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM results | Revenue of $9.82 billion, gross profit of $1.30 billion, operating income of $255.8 million, net income of $262.46 million, EPS of $4.95, and EBITDA of $717.0 million over the trailing twelve months ended April 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com financials and statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2025 results | Revenue of $9.579 billion down 4.62%, net income of $258.56 million down 2.54%, and EPS of $4.84 | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 4, 2026 |
| Q3 FY2026 results | EPS of $1.86 versus consensus of $1.94, revenue of $2.78 billion versus consensus of $2.65 billion, and net income of $97.23 million for the quarter ended April 30, 2026 | Thor Industries Q3 FY2026 earnings release and StockAnalysis.com | June 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 guidance | FY2026 EPS view cut to $3.30 to $3.80 from $3.75 to $4.25 versus consensus of $4.09, and FY2026 revenue view backed at $9.0 billion to $9.5 billion | Thor Industries Q3 FY2026 earnings release | June 3, 2026 |
| Q3 FY2026 segment revenue | North American Towable of $881.8 million, North American Motorized of $717.7 million, European of $987.6 million, and Other of $276.8 million for the quarter ended April 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com quarterly financials | August 4, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | Cash of $371.95 million and total debt of $941.68 million as of April 30, 2026 on the StockAnalysis.com balance sheet page, while the statistics page reports total debt near $919.26 million and net debt near $547 million on a slightly different basis | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet and statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Dividend | $2.08 annual dividend, $0.52 quarterly, 2.72% forward yield, payout ratio near 42%, ex-dividend date July 1, 2026, and 1-year dividend growth of 4.00% | StockAnalysis.com dividend history | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 15.44x trailing PE, 19.07x forward PE, 0.40x PS, 0.90x PB, 19.55x P/FCF, 1.59x PEG, and 6.21x EV/EBITDA | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation math verification | 15.47x trailing PE, 19.94x P/FCF, 0.92x PB, 5.02% FCF yield, and 2.72% dividend yield at $76.57 using $4.95 TTM EPS, $3.84 FCF per share, $82.88 book value per share, and $2.08 dividend per share | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold with an average price target of $90.50 for 18.19% upside, a median of $90, a low of $59, and a high of $138 across 18 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 4 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, 12 Hold, and 1 Sell out of 18 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | August 4, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Citi to $79 from $80 on July 24, 2026 (Hold), Truist to $80 from $109 on July 8, 2026 (Hold), D.A. Davidson to $80 from $100 on June 12, 2026 (Hold), and Loop Capital to $96 from $90 in early June 2026 (Buy) | StockAnalysis.com forecast and news feed | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2026 and FY2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue of $9.47 billion with EPS of $3.51, and FY2027 revenue of $9.81 billion with EPS of $4.58 | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| Short interest | 5.24 million shares short, 10.07% of shares outstanding, and a short ratio of 6.57 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA near $76.93, 20-day SMA near $75.42, 50-day SMA near $76.04, 100-day SMA near $77.16, 200-day SMA near $91.68, 14-day RSI near 51.3, 14-day ADX near 13.8, and 14-day historical volatility near 37.4% | Barchart technical analysis | August 4, 2026 |
| Volume profile | 20-day average volume near 636,985 shares on StockAnalysis.com and 636,906 on Barchart | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart | August 4, 2026 |
| Q4 FY2026 earnings date | Wednesday, September 23, 2026, before market open | StockAnalysis.com | August 4, 2026 |
This THO page is an informational research tool, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data and may be wrong if interest rates, consumer spending, RV demand, dealer inventory, used-RV supply, oil prices, trade policy, competition, or broader economic conditions change. Data is as of the stated cutoff date and may be stale after new earnings or market moves.
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