TFI International Inc. research snapshot
TFII AI stock analysis currently views TFI International as a scaled North American transportation consolidator spanning less-than-truckload, truckload including specialized flatbed, and logistics services. Full-year 2025 revenue was $7.88 billion and net income was $310.6 million, both lower year over year as freight demand stayed soft, while free cash flow generation and share repurchases continued. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, the July 10 reference price was $147.64 with about $12.14 billion of market value, roughly $3.0 billion of net debt, and a trailing PE near 41x. This TFII AI stock analysis uses scenarios rather than a certain price prediction and is for informational purposes, not investment advice.
Current price
$147.64 on July 10, 2026
Market cap
$12.14B reported, with $12.13B from $147.64 times 82.19M shares
AI score
58 / 100
Rating
Diversified North American freight consolidator with durable free cash flow, material leverage, and a rich trailing earnings multiple
Trend status
Long-term uptrend remains intact above the 200-day average, while the July 10 price sat near the 50-day average with neutral momentum
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Customers pay TFI to move LTL, truckload, specialized, and logistics freight across the United States, Canada, and Mexico through a multi-brand operating network. | High |
| Moat | Scale, terminal and equipment density, specialized truckload capabilities after Daseke, customer relationships, and serial M&A integration skill support the moat. It is real but narrower than a pure-play premium LTL network and can fade if service or cost control slips. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Alain Bedard has a long record of acquisitions, buybacks, dividends, and operating cleanup. Key-person risk is material, and the capital-allocation test is whether Daseke and other deals convert into higher ROIC after the freight trough. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue fell 6.1% to $7.885B and net income fell 26.5% to $310.6M. Q1 2026 revenue was $1.949B, net income was $43.3M, and adjusted diluted EPS was $0.69. | High |
| Valuation | At $147.64, exact arithmetic gave about 41.0x trailing EPS, 4.56x book value, 18.9x free cash flow per share, 1.26% dividend yield, and 5.28% free-cash-flow yield. The market is paying for an earnings recovery. | High |
| Technical trend | The July 10 price of $147.64 was near the 50-day average of $146.95 and well above the 200-day average of $115.40. RSI of 51.63 was neutral. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include a prolonged freight downturn, weak LTL and truckload pricing, integration misses, labor and fuel inflation, leverage, key-person risk around the CEO, and multiple compression if recovery earnings disappoint. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Financial facts and market-cap math are well supported by company releases and independent databases. Return timing remains far less certain than the reported data. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | TFI may re-rate if freight volumes and pricing recover while free cash flow funds buybacks and debt control, but the current multiple leaves limited room for operating or macro disappointment. | Medium-low |
TFII AI stock forecast
The TFII AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $147.64 July 10 reference, trailing EPS of $3.60, and a three-year earnings-multiple framework. The exact-arithmetic model produced bullish, base, and bearish areas near $165.60, $99.80, and $43.20 before any dividends. These are conditional valuation outcomes, not price targets.
$155 to $175
More likely if freight demand recovers, LTL and truckload yields improve, Daseke and other acquisitions lift ROIC, adjusted EPS compounds near high teens, free cash flow stays strong, leverage declines, and investors accept a mid-to-high 20s earnings multiple.
$90 to $110
More likely if earnings grow near high single digits, volumes stabilize gradually, operating ratios improve only slowly, and the market re-rates TFII closer to a low-20s earnings multiple as recovery becomes visible rather than fully priced.
$40 to $55
More likely if industrial freight stays weak, pricing power erodes, integration or U.S. LTL costs rise, leverage remains elevated, buybacks slow, or the market values trough-to-mid-cycle earnings closer to a mid-teens PE.
TFII AI technical analysis
TFII AI technical analysis uses the July 10, 2026 market snapshot, not live chart data. StockAnalysis reported a $147.64 reference price, a 50-day moving average of $146.95, a 200-day moving average of $115.40, RSI of 51.63, and 20-day average volume of about 395,000 shares. That combination points to a still-positive long-term structure with neutral short-term momentum near the intermediate average.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $147.64 | July 10, 2026 reference used for valuation and market-cap verification, not a live quote. |
| Near resistance | $155 to $168 | This zone covers recent recovery highs toward the 52-week high of $167.69. A sustained move with volume would improve near-term trend confirmation. |
| Immediate support | $140 to $147 | This area contains the reported 50-day moving average of $146.95 and should be judged with volume and freight-market confirmation rather than used alone. |
| Long-term support | $110 to $120 | This zone is anchored by the reported 200-day moving average of $115.40. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $146.95; 200-day $115.40 | The July 10 price was essentially at the 50-day average and well above the 200-day average. |
| Momentum | RSI 51.63 | This was a neutral reading, not an overbought or oversold signal on its own. |
| Volume | 20-day average about 395,000 shares | A breakout or failure is more credible when volume is meaningfully above this reference. |
| Volatility | 5-year beta 1.48; 52-week range $80.63 to $167.69 | The source reported above-market historical volatility and a wide recovery range from the 2025 low, so position risk should account for large price moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $110 to $120 | A sustained break below the 200-day area would weaken the trend-following framework and call for a new fundamental review. |
TFII AI trading strategy
The TFII AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It combines freight-cycle data, free cash flow, leverage, valuation discipline, and technical invalidation levels.
Watch for TFII to hold above the $140 to $147 area and reclaim $155 to $168 with volume above its 20-day reference, while quarterly results show improving volumes, yields, operating income, and free cash flow.
A failed breakout or sustained close back below the $140 to $147 zone should reduce setup confidence. A break below $110 to $120 invalidates the long-term trend framework.
If the shares approach the $110 to $120 support area, compare the valuation reset with reported tonnage and pricing, segment operating income, free cash flow, net-debt progress, and acquisition integration commentary before treating the pullback as an opportunity.
Do not treat a decline as benign if freight demand deteriorates, LTL or truckload pricing weakens, debt rises, or free cash flow conversion breaks down.
Track revenue before fuel surcharge, segment operating income for LTL, Truckload, and Logistics, adjusted operating ratio, free cash flow, net debt, share count, dividend growth, and the July 27, 2026 earnings release.
Position sizing should reflect that TFII is a cyclical, acquisition-driven freight operator with meaningful leverage and a high trailing PE, not a low-multiple bond substitute.
Investment research summary
Customers pay TFI to move freight when they need reliable pickup, linehaul, delivery, specialized equipment, brokerage, and logistics coordination across North America. The company earns money by pricing and operating LTL, truckload, specialized, and logistics services better than the cost of labor, fuel, equipment, terminals, and claims.
The moat rests on multi-segment scale, equipment and terminal density, specialized truckload capability after the Daseke deal, customer relationships, and management skill at buying and improving freight assets. It is not a pure network-effect franchise and can narrow if competitors take share or if integration and service quality slip.
The thesis fails if industrial freight demand stays weak, pricing power fades, U.S. LTL or truckload costs outrun productivity, large acquisitions destroy ROIC, leverage amplifies a downturn, or the market stops paying a premium for recovery earnings.
Alain Bedard, as chairman, president, and CEO, has long emphasized acquisitions, free cash flow, dividends, and buybacks. Insider ownership is material relative to many peers, but key-person risk is high, and capital allocation must keep proving itself after Daseke and other deals.
North American trucking and logistics remain tied to industrial production, construction, retail replenishment, and trade flows. The sector is cyclical, fragmented, and exposed to labor, fuel, insurance, regulation, and capacity swings. Consolidation and specialized equipment niches can still create durable operators.
At about 41x trailing EPS and 18.9x trailing free cash flow per share, the July reference price leaves a modest margin of safety unless earnings recover toward prior-cycle levels. Free cash flow yield near 5.3% is more supportive than the PE, so the setup is less about current profits and more about recovery timing.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| TFII quote, shares, market capitalization, and technical snapshot | $147.64 price, 82.19M shares, $12.14B market cap, 50-day average $146.95, 200-day average $115.40, RSI 51.63 | StockAnalysis TFII overview and statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $12.13B calculated from $147.64 x 82.19M shares, 0.05% from reported $12.14B market cap | Pineify financial_rigor.py using StockAnalysis inputs | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $7.885B total revenue and $310.6M net income; diluted EPS $3.72 | TFI International FY2025 results release and annual report | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue, earnings, and free cash flow | $1.949B total revenue, $43.3M net income, $0.53 diluted EPS, $0.69 adjusted diluted EPS, $121.5M operating cash flow, and $123.7M free cash flow | TFI International Q1 2026 results release | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, net cash, and trailing free cash flow | $185.81M cash, $3.18B total debt, about -$2.99B net cash, and $640.93M trailing free cash flow ($7.80 per share) | StockAnalysis TFII statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Trailing valuation calculation | 41.01x EPS, 4.56x book value per share, 18.93x free cash flow per share, 5.28% free-cash-flow yield, and 1.26% dividend yield | Pineify financial_rigor.py using StockAnalysis trailing inputs | July 12, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data and assumptions, can be wrong, and may change without notice. Verify current prices, filings, and personal suitability before making any investment decision.
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