TFI International Inc. research snapshot
TFII AI stock analysis currently views TFI International as a scaled North American transportation consolidator spanning less-than-truckload, truckload including specialized flatbed, and logistics services. The Q2 2026 report released on July 27, 2026 showed revenue of $2.29 billion, up 12%, net income of $136.2 million, up 39%, and adjusted diluted EPS of $1.85, up 38%, with all three segments growing operating income, and the company guided third quarter adjusted EPS to $1.70 to $1.80. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, the July 31 reference price was $135.02 with about $11.10 billion of market value, roughly $2.84 billion of net debt, a trailing PE near 33x, and a forward PE near 18.8x. The stock still fell about 9% from $147.76 on July 28 to $135.02 on July 31 after the report. This TFII AI stock analysis uses scenarios rather than a certain price prediction and is for informational purposes, not investment advice.
Current price
$135.02 on July 31, 2026
Market cap
$11.10B reported, with $11.10B from $135.02 times 82.19M shares
AI score
64 / 100
Rating
Scaled North American freight consolidator whose Q2 2026 beat and Q3 guidance support a recovery, while leverage, a rich trailing multiple, and post-earnings share weakness keep certainty limited
Trend status
Long-term uptrend remains intact above the 200-day average, but the July 31 close of $135.02 sits below the 50-day average with a weak RSI near 34.7 after a sharp post-earnings pullback
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Customers pay TFI to move LTL, truckload, specialized, and logistics freight across the United States, Canada, and Mexico through a multi-brand operating network. | High |
| Moat | Scale, terminal and equipment density, specialized truckload capabilities, customer relationships, and serial M&A integration skill support the moat. It is real but narrower than a pure-play premium LTL network and can fade if service or cost control slips. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Alain Bedard has a long record of acquisitions, buybacks, dividends, and operating cleanup, and Q2 showed truckload operating income up 50% with capital intensity reduced. Key-person risk is still material, and the test is whether the recovery converts into durable ROIC. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 revenue rose 12% to $2.29B, operating income rose 29% to $220.4M, and net income rose 39% to $136.2M. TTM net income was $335.80M on $8.12B of revenue, with TTM EPS of $4.07. | High |
| Valuation | At $135.02, exact arithmetic gave about 33.2x trailing EPS, 4.06x book value, 16.84x free cash flow per share, 1.39% dividend yield, and 5.94% free-cash-flow yield. The market is paying a recovery multiple, though lower than the near 41x at the July 10 reference. | High |
| Technical trend | The July 31 close of $135.02 was below the 50-day average of $149.59 and above the 200-day average of $119.73. RSI of 34.72 was weak after a post-earnings decline of roughly 9% over three sessions. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include uneven freight demand, soft LTL pricing and operating ratio, integration misses, labor and fuel inflation, leverage near $2.84 billion of net debt, key-person risk around the CEO, a registration statement filed with the SEC on the earnings date that may precede a securities offering, and multiple compression if recovery earnings disappoint. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Financial facts, the Q2 2026 report, and market-cap math are well supported by company releases and independent databases. Return timing remains far less certain than the reported data. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | TFI has momentum from a Q2 beat, strong cash flow, and improving guidance, but the trailing multiple still leaves limited room for disappointment, and the post-earnings price action is a reminder that good news is not a price guarantee. | Medium |
TFII AI stock forecast
The TFII AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $135.02 July 31 reference, the FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS near $5.99, and a three-year earnings-multiple framework. The exact-arithmetic model produced bullish, base, and bearish areas near $194, $143, and $90 before any dividends. These are conditional valuation outcomes, not price targets.
$170 to $200
More likely if freight volumes and pricing keep improving, LTL operating ratio stabilizes or improves, truckload margins stay elevated, adjusted EPS compounds near double digits toward the $7.89 FY2027 consensus, free cash flow stays strong, leverage declines, and investors keep paying a mid-20s earnings multiple.
$130 to $160
More likely if Q3 and Q4 2026 deliver near the $1.70 to $1.80 adjusted EPS guidance, earnings grow at a high single digit pace, operating ratios improve gradually, and the market holds a low-20s earnings multiple while the recovery becomes more visible.
$85 to $110
More likely if industrial freight demand stalls, LTL pricing stays weak, integration or accident costs rise, a securities offering or rising debt dilutes or pressures the balance sheet, or the market compresses the multiple toward the mid-teens it assigned in 2022 and 2023.
TFII AI technical analysis
TFII AI technical analysis uses the July 31, 2026 market snapshot, not live chart data. StockAnalysis reported a $135.02 reference close, a 50-day moving average of $149.59, a 200-day moving average of $119.73, RSI of 34.72, and a 20-day average volume of about 378,000 shares. That combination points to a still-positive long-term structure with negative short-term momentum after the stock fell from about $157 in mid-July.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $135.02 | July 31, 2026 NYSE close used for valuation and market-cap verification, not a live quote. |
| Near resistance | $149 to $157 | This zone covers the 50-day moving average near $149.59 and the mid-July recovery area toward $157. A sustained move above it with volume would improve short-term trend confirmation. |
| Immediate support | $130 to $135 | This area contains the July 29 to July 31 lows near $133 to $135 and should be judged with volume and freight-market confirmation rather than used alone. |
| Long-term support | $110 to $120 | This zone is anchored by the reported 200-day moving average of $119.73. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $149.59; 200-day $119.73 | The July 31 price was below the 50-day average and well above the 200-day average. |
| Momentum | RSI 34.72 | This was a weak reading after the post-earnings decline, not yet an oversold extreme. |
| Volume | 20-day average about 378,000 shares | The selloff sessions from July 29 to July 31 traded well above this reference, so a recovery will be more credible when volume stays elevated. |
| Volatility | 5-year beta 1.48; 52-week range $80.63 to $167.69 | The source reported above-market historical volatility and a wide recovery range, so position risk should account for large price moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $110 to $120 | A sustained break below the 200-day area would weaken the trend-following framework and call for a new fundamental review. |
TFII AI trading strategy
The TFII AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It combines freight-cycle data, free cash flow, leverage, valuation discipline, and technical invalidation levels.
Watch for TFII to reclaim the $149 to $157 area with volume above its 20-day reference, while quarterly results confirm the Q2 momentum with improving volumes, pricing, operating income, and free cash flow.
A failed recovery or sustained close back below the $130 to $135 zone should reduce setup confidence. A break below $110 to $120 invalidates the long-term trend framework.
If the shares approach the $110 to $120 support area, compare the valuation reset with reported tonnage and pricing, segment operating income, free cash flow, net-debt progress, acquisition integration commentary, and any offering or leverage news before treating the pullback as an opportunity.
Do not treat a decline as benign if freight demand deteriorates, LTL or truckload pricing weakens, debt rises, a securities offering is confirmed, or free cash flow conversion breaks down.
Track revenue before fuel surcharge, segment operating income for LTL, Truckload, and Logistics, adjusted operating ratio, adjusted EPS against the $1.70 to $1.80 Q3 guidance, free cash flow, net debt, share count, dividend growth, and the next earnings release.
Position sizing should reflect that TFII is a cyclical, acquisition-driven freight operator with meaningful leverage and a recovery-priced multiple, not a low-multiple bond substitute.
Investment research summary
Customers pay TFI to move freight when they need reliable pickup, linehaul, delivery, specialized equipment, brokerage, and logistics coordination across North America. The company earns money by pricing and operating LTL, truckload, specialized, and logistics services better than the cost of labor, fuel, equipment, terminals, and claims.
The moat rests on multi-segment scale, equipment and terminal density, specialized truckload capability, customer relationships, and management skill at buying and improving freight assets. It is not a pure network-effect franchise and can narrow if competitors take share or if integration and service quality slip.
The thesis fails if industrial freight demand stays weak, LTL pricing erodes, truckload margins normalize too fast, large acquisitions destroy ROIC, leverage or a securities offering pressures the balance sheet, or the market stops paying a premium for recovery earnings.
Alain Bedard, as chairman, president, and CEO, has long emphasized acquisitions, free cash flow, dividends, and buybacks. Q2 showed truckload operating income up 50% and free cash flow above $200 million, but key-person risk is high and capital allocation must keep proving itself.
North American trucking and logistics remain tied to industrial production, construction, retail replenishment, and trade flows. The sector is cyclical, fragmented, and exposed to labor, fuel, insurance, regulation, and capacity swings. Consolidation and specialized equipment niches can still create durable operators, and the Q2 report showed early signs of improving market conditions.
At about 33x trailing EPS, 16.8x trailing free cash flow per share, and a 5.9% free-cash-flow yield, the July reference price prices in a continued recovery. The forward PE near 18.8x and the consensus FY2026 adjusted EPS near $5.99 are more supportive than the trailing multiple, so the setup depends on earnings delivery rather than a margin of safety on current profits.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| TFII quote, shares, market capitalization, and technical snapshot | $135.02 price, 82.19M shares, $11.10B market cap, 50-day average $149.59, 200-day average $119.73, RSI 34.72 | StockAnalysis TFII overview and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $11.10B calculated from $135.02 x 82.19M shares, 0.02% from reported $11.10B market cap | Pineify financial_rigor.py using StockAnalysis inputs | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue, earnings, cash flow, and guidance | $2,289.9M revenue, $220.4M operating income, $136.2M net income, $1.65 diluted EPS, $1.85 adjusted diluted EPS, $255.6M operating cash flow, $202.1M free cash flow, and Q3 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $1.70 to $1.80 | TFI International Q2 2026 results release | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $7.885B total revenue and $310.6M net income; diluted EPS $3.72 | TFI International FY2025 results release and annual report | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, net cash, and trailing free cash flow | $205.45M cash, $3.05B total debt, about -$2.84B net cash, and $659.09M trailing free cash flow ($8.02 per share) | StockAnalysis TFII statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Trailing valuation calculation | 33.17x EPS, 4.06x book value per share, 16.84x free cash flow per share, 5.94% free-cash-flow yield, and 1.39% dividend yield | Pineify financial_rigor.py using StockAnalysis trailing inputs | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus and financial forecast | Buy consensus from 19 analysts with a $174.85 average price target; FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS of $5.99 and FY2027 adjusted EPS of $7.89 | StockAnalysis TFII forecast | August 3, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data and assumptions, can be wrong, and may change without notice. Verify current prices, filings, and personal suitability before making any investment decision.
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