Teradata Corporation research snapshot
TDC AI stock analysis currently reads Teradata as a legacy-to-cloud data analytics business undergoing margin improvement and a modest valuation re-rate. The analysis is not a certain price prediction. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified close was $33.74, market capitalization was about $3.17 billion, and the question was whether Teradata can sustain its TTM net income margin above 20% while growing cloud revenue and fending off competition from Snowflake, Databricks and hyperscaler-native offerings. The stock trades at 7.7x TTM earnings and 9.5x TTM free cash flow, a discount to the software peer group. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$33.74
Market cap
$3.17 billion
AI score
58 / 100
Rating
Valuation support with cloud transformation in progress
Trend status
Recovering from 52-week low near $19.83, above both moving averages
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Teradata sells enterprise data warehousing, analytics, AI/ML platforms, and consulting to large organizations. Recurring cloud subscription revenue is growing, though a sizable portion of revenue still comes from legacy on-premise maintenance and consulting. | Medium |
| Moat | The moat comes from deep enterprise relationships, long data warehouse migration cycles, a mature query optimizer for complex SQL workloads, and integration with existing IT ecosystems. Switching costs are real but erosion risk from cloud-native alternatives is meaningful. | Medium |
| Management | Steve McMillan (CEO since 2020) has led a restructuring that expanded margins meaningfully. Management has reduced headcount, pushed VantageCloud adoption, and improved free cash flow. Capital allocation has been disciplined, with debt reduction and share buybacks. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue has gradually declined from about $1.95 billion in FY2020 to around $1.75 billion in FY2024, but net income has improved from breakeven levels to $421 million TTM. Free cash flow generation has strengthened, reaching $335 million TTM. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | TDC trades at 7.7x TTM earnings, 9.5x TTM free cash flow, and 1.7x EV/Revenue. These are low multiples for enterprise software. Forward P/E of 13.3x suggests the market expects normalized earnings to be lower than TTM levels. | Medium |
| Technical trend | TDC has rallied from the 52-week low near $19.83 and is trading above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The stock is below the 52-week high of $41.78, so the trend has room before reaching overhead supply. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are competition from Snowflake, Databricks, Amazon Redshift, Google BigQuery, and Microsoft Fabric; cloud migration execution; the ability to sustain improved margins as revenue mix shifts to lower-margin cloud; customer concentration; and technology disruption risk. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Medium-high confidence for financial data including SEC filings, market cap math, revenue, and net income. Lower confidence for competitive positioning forecasts and long-term margin trajectory. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low-medium certainty. The valuation multiple is low enough to provide some downside protection, but the business is in a structural transition and faces well-capitalized competitors. | Low-medium |
TDC AI stock forecast
The TDC AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $33.74 cutoff price. It does not claim that AI can predict a specific future price. The scenarios vary based on whether Teradata can maintain its improved margins, grow cloud subscription revenue, and stabilize or modestly grow total revenue while the market assigns a higher or lower multiple.
$60 to $75
More likely if Teradata sustains TTM net income above $400 million, cloud revenue growth accelerates above 20%, total revenue stabilizes or grows modestly, and the market re-rates the stock toward a software-industry P/E near 15x to 18x forward earnings.
$32 to $45
More likely if earnings normalize toward $2.50 to $3.00 per share, cloud growth continues at 10% to 15%, total revenue declines slowly, and the market values the stock near 12x to 14x earnings.
$18 to $28
More likely if competition erodes Teradata market share, profit margins compress back toward mid-single-digit net margins, cloud growth stalls below 10%, and the market prices the stock at a single-digit earnings multiple consistent with a declining business.
TDC AI technical analysis
TDC AI technical analysis starts from the $33.74 close near the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. Public technical data showed the stock above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, having rallied sharply from a $19.83 low. RSI was in the mid-60s, indicating momentum without being overbought. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $33.74 | Latest verified close used for this page as of the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Near support | $30 to $31 | Recent pullback support zone around the 20-day moving average area reported by public technical sources. |
| Secondary support | $26 to $28 | The 50-day moving average area. A sustained break below this level would weaken the recovery trend. |
| Near resistance | $36 to $38 | The $35-38 zone represents prior trading range and the 52-week high area near $41.78 is the next major level. |
| 50-day moving average | About $27 to $29 | Public technical snapshots showed TDC well above the 50-day moving average around the cutoff. |
| 200-day moving average | About $26 to $28 | TDC was above the 200-day moving average, supporting the medium-term recovery trend. |
| Momentum | RSI 64, positive MACD | RSI was in the mid-60s, MACD was above the signal line, and the stock had positive short-term momentum. |
| Volume | About 3.4 million shares daily | Volume was above the average of around 2.7 million, indicating active participation in the recent move. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.59, ATR 14 around $1.80 | TDC has below-market beta, which means smaller daily swings than the broader market. |
| Invalidation | Close below $28, then below $25 | A close below the $28 area (50-day and 200-day MA zone) would weaken the recovery trend significantly. |
TDC AI trading strategy
The TDC AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines financial evidence, technical signals, position sizing, and clear invalidation levels.
Look for TDC to hold above the $30 support zone and build a base before challenging the $36 to $38 resistance area. Volume should confirm any breakout attempt above resistance.
A failed test of the $36 area followed by a close below $30 would reduce confidence. Use position sizing appropriate for a small-cap data analytics stock with beta below 1.
If TDC pulls back toward $28 to $30 without any structural thesis break, monitor whether the stock has held above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages with no deterioration in fundamentals.
Set a maximum loss before entry. Do not average down solely because the valuation looks low. Confirm earnings trajectory first.
Track TDC quarterly cloud revenue growth, total revenue trajectory, net income trend, free cash flow conversion, and management guidance on competitive wins and losses.
Reduce exposure if cloud revenue growth decelerates below 10% or if net income drops more than 20% year over year.
Investment research summary
Teradata provides enterprise-scale data warehousing and analytics platforms that help large organizations store, query, and analyze structured and multi-structured data, increasingly through its VantageCloud SaaS offering.
The moat comes from long-standing enterprise relationships, high switching costs from deeply embedded data warehouse infrastructure, a mature SQL query optimizer for complex analytical workloads, and industry-specific solutions in financial services, healthcare, retail, and telecom.
The thesis fails if cloud-native alternatives (Snowflake, Databricks, Amazon Redshift, Google BigQuery) erode Teradata share faster than expected, if the margin improvement proves temporary and costs re-inflate, or if the revenue decline accelerates before cloud subscription revenue is large enough to sustain profitability.
CEO Steve McMillan has driven a cost restructuring, improved margins from low single-digit to above 20% net income, shifted the product mix toward cloud, and increased free cash flow. Management has been measured on capital allocation, buying back shares and reducing debt.
Enterprise data analytics and AI workloads are in a long-term secular growth trend. However, Teradata competes against hyperscaler-native offerings (AWS, GCP, Azure), pure-play cloud data platforms (Snowflake, Databricks), and open source alternatives. Its differentiation lies in complex multi-workload environments and deep SQL optimization.
At 7.7x TTM earnings, 9.5x TTM free cash flow, and 1.7x EV/Revenue, the stock is priced at a deep discount to software peers. This provides some margin of safety if earnings are sustainable, but the low multiple also reflects market skepticism about the durability of the margin improvement and the competitive threat.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| TDC price | $33.74 close on July 10, 2026 | Yahoo Finance quote snapshot | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $3.17 billion, verified as $33.74 x ~94.1 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification and Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Revenue (TTM) | $1.69 billion | Yahoo Finance, cross-checked with Wikipedia FY2024 ($1.75B) | July 12, 2026 |
| Net income (TTM) | $421 million | Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Diluted EPS (TTM) | $4.37 | Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Free cash flow (TTM) | $335 million | Yahoo Finance leverage FCF metric | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and equivalents | $816 million | Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | $2.91 billion | Yahoo Finance EV calculation | July 12, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $19.83 to $41.78 | Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 7.72x TTM PE, 5.70x PB, 9.48x P/FCF, 10.55% FCF yield from financial_rigor.py | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 12, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | 1y target $34.88, Hold rating | Yahoo Finance analyst summary | July 12, 2026 |
This TDC AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of July 12, 2026 and can be wrong.
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