Sunbelt Rentals Holdings, Inc. research snapshot
SUNB AI stock analysis currently reads Sunbelt Rentals Holdings as a scaled equipment-rental franchise with broad North American and U.K. coverage, record fiscal 2026 free cash flow, and a Specialty business that grew rental revenue 15.1% in the fiscal fourth quarter. Fiscal 2026 revenue was $11.15 billion and net income was $1.33 billion. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, the July 31 close was $71.92, implying market capitalization near $29.46 billion. The constructive case depends on specialty and mega-project growth, fleet utilization, and disciplined capital allocation; the caution is that adjusted EBITDA margin compressed 210 basis points in fiscal 2026, leverage is meaningful, net income fell 14.7%, and construction and industrial demand still drive the cycle. Analysts on average rate SUNB a Buy with a $84.71 target, but individual targets range from $62 to $115. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$71.92 close on July 31, 2026
Market cap
$29.46 billion using 409.57 million shares and the July 31, 2026 close
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
Scaled equipment-rental leader with record free cash flow and strong specialty growth, offset by margin compression, construction-cycle exposure, and elevated leverage
Trend status
Near-term price sits below the 50-day moving average and near the 200-day average, so the short-term trend is mixed even though the U.S. listing history is now long enough for reference moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Customers rent construction, industrial, and specialty equipment plus related delivery, fuel, erection, and re-rent services. Rental revenue supplies the core recurring cash engine, and fiscal 2026 rental revenue reached $10.32 billion. | High |
| Moat | Scale, branch density, a fleet near $19.2 billion at original cost, logistics, procurement, customer relationships, and specialty expertise create advantages. The moat is practical rather than absolute and depends on utilization, rates, and service. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Brendan Horgan brings more than 25 years of equipment-rental experience and CFO Alex Pease oversees financial strategy. The capital-allocation test is balancing fleet investment, bolt-on acquisitions, debt reduction, dividends, and buybacks while keeping net leverage near 1.6x. | High |
| Financial trend | FY2026 revenue reached $11.15 billion, rental revenue was $10.32 billion, net income was $1.33 billion, adjusted EBITDA was $4.68 billion, and free cash flow hit a record $2.06 billion. Adjusted EBITDA margin fell 210 basis points to 41.9%. | High |
| Valuation | At $71.92, financial_rigor.py verified 22.83x trailing EPS, 14.63x free cash flow per share, a 6.84% FCF yield, and a 1.56% dividend yield. The forward P/E of 17.59x is lower on expected fiscal 2027 earnings growth. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The July 31 close of $71.92 is below the 50-day moving average of $76.31 and close to the 200-day average of $71.06. RSI near 43 is neutral, and the 52-week range is $60.42 to $86.68, so the trend is mixed rather than clearly directional. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are construction and industrial demand, fleet utilization, pricing, high fleet capex, used-equipment values, interest costs, rising debt after senior note issuance, acquisition integration, and competition from United Rentals and Herc. | High |
| AI confidence | Reported-data confidence is high; scenario and technical confidence are lower because future demand, margin trajectory, used-equipment prices, and the post-listing market record remain uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | SUNB is a mature operator with a cyclical earnings engine and real cash generation, not a certainty. Margin of safety depends on price, normalized free cash flow, leverage, and the rental cycle. | Medium |
SUNB AI stock forecast
The SUNB AI stock forecast uses the July 31 price of $71.92, fiscal 2026 EPS of $3.15, and a three-year earnings-multiple model. financial_rigor.py produced values near $53.50 in the bearish case, $83.30 in the base case, and $113.60 in the bullish case. These scenario ranges sit inside the analyst low of $62, average of $84.71, and high of $115, and they are not price promises.
$105 to $120
More likely if rental revenue grows at or above the 5% to 8% fiscal 2027 outlook, Specialty keeps growing in the mid-teens, mega-project wins convert to revenue, rates inflect higher, and the market accepts about 25x earnings on roughly 13% annual EPS growth.
$78 to $88
More likely if earnings compound around 8%, adjusted EBITDA lands in the $4.85 to $5.05 billion guide, margins stabilize in the back half, free cash flow covers capital needs and shareholder returns, and the market values SUNB near 21x earnings.
$50 to $60
More likely if construction or industrial demand weakens, utilization or rental rates fall, margins keep compressing, the Reliant deal underperforms, interest costs rise, or the market rerates earnings toward 16x as EPS growth slows.
SUNB AI technical analysis
SUNB AI technical analysis uses market data available through August 2, 2026. The latest available close was $71.92 on July 31. With the primary U.S. listing established in early 2026, 50-day and 200-day moving averages are now calculable but based on a short U.S. record, so confirm live price, volume, volatility, and moving averages before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $71.92 | July 31, 2026 close from StockAnalysis market data. |
| 52-week range | $60.42 to $86.68 | The range shows the stock peaked near $86.68 in mid-June 2026 and has pulled back to the low $70s. |
| Near support | $68 to $71 | The area around the 200-day moving average near $71 and the recent $70.74 intraday low is the first reference support zone. |
| Near resistance | $76 to $80 | The 50-day moving average near $76.31 and the late-June bounce zone around $80 form the first resistance band. |
| 50-day moving average | $76.31 | Price is below this average, which keeps the short-term bias cautious until price reclaims it. |
| 200-day moving average | $71.06 | Price is roughly at this average, so a sustained close below it would weaken the medium-term picture given the short U.S. history. |
| Momentum and volume | RSI near 43 | The relative strength index is neutral, and average 20-day volume is about 2.2 million shares, so watch for volume confirmation on any breakout or breakdown. |
| Volatility | Beta of 1.65 | The stock has moved more than the market, which raises risk-adjusted caution for position sizing and stop placement. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $68 or $71 | A decisive close below the support zone around $68 to $71 with rising volume would weaken the technical case; a reclaim of the 50-day average near $76 would improve it. |
SUNB AI trading strategy
The SUNB AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. Link price action to rental revenue growth, General Tool and Specialty utilization, rental rates, fleet capex, used-equipment proceeds, free cash flow, net leverage, interest expense, and the Reliant Asset Management integration.
Wait for a live-chart move back above the 50-day moving average near $76 with volume confirmation, then verify that rental revenue, utilization, and fiscal 2027 guidance still support the move.
Reduce confidence if price falls back below the 50-day average, volume fails to confirm, rental growth slows, margins keep compressing, or management lowers outlook.
If SUNB falls toward the $68 to $71 support zone while operating data remain intact, compare normalized free cash flow, leverage, and the base scenario before considering a mean-reversion thesis.
Do not assume every decline is an opportunity when utilization, rates, used-equipment values, or debt capacity are deteriorating.
Track rental revenue growth, Specialty mix, dollar utilization, fleet capex, free cash flow, net debt, interest expense, Reliant integration, and construction and industrial activity.
Use position sizing that reflects a capital-intensive, cyclical business, an elevated beta of 1.65, and the short U.S. trading history.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Sunbelt to access equipment and services when owning the assets would tie up capital, create maintenance work, or reduce flexibility. The business earns from equipment rentals, ancillary services such as fuel, erection and dismantling, re-rent, and related sales.
Branch density, fleet scale near $19.2 billion at original cost, logistics, procurement, local service, customer relationships, and Specialty know-how are the key advantages. They matter only if the company keeps equipment available and earns adequate utilization and rates.
The thesis fails if a downturn reduces utilization, rental rates weaken, fleet or interest costs rise, used-equipment values fall, the Reliant acquisition fails to integrate, or rising debt constrains capital allocation and shareholder returns.
Brendan Horgan has led the strategy around customer focus, Specialty expansion, greenfield openings, and bolt-on acquisitions such as Reliant Asset Management. The durable test is whether fleet capex and acquisitions earn returns above their cost through the cycle while margins and leverage stay controlled.
Equipment rental benefits from outsourcing, contractor flexibility, infrastructure and industrial work, mega projects, live events, and the shift toward specialty applications. It remains exposed to construction activity, interest rates, project timing, fuel prices, and competitive fleet supply.
At $71.92, the trailing P/E is 22.83x and the FCF yield is 6.84%. The base scenario near $83 is only moderately above the reference price, so a margin of safety requires confidence in normalized free cash flow, margin stabilization, and leverage discipline.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $71.92 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Market cap and shares outstanding | $29.46 billion and 409.57 million shares | StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 revenue and net income | $11.154 billion revenue and $1.325 billion net income (down 14.7%) | Sunbelt Rentals FY2026 Form 10-K | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 rental revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and free cash flow | $10.320 billion rental revenue, $4.677 billion adjusted EBITDA at 41.9% margin, and record $2.055 billion free cash flow | Sunbelt Rentals FY2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Net debt and net leverage | $7.554 billion net debt at April 30, 2026 and net leverage of 1.6x, within the 1x to 2x target | Sunbelt Rentals FY2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2027 outlook | Total revenue growth of 4.5% to 7.5%, rental revenue growth of 5% to 8%, and adjusted EBITDA of $4.85 to $5.05 billion | Sunbelt Rentals FY2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Segment growth and Q4 specialty momentum | FY2026 rental revenue: North America General Tool +2.1%, North America Specialty +5.8%, U.K. +3.1%; Q4 Specialty rental revenue grew 15.1% | Sunbelt Rentals FY2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Reliant Asset Management acquisition | Closed May 1, 2026 for $650 million; creates the Modular Solutions specialty line under the Aries brand and contributes about 1% of the fiscal 2027 guide | Sunbelt Rentals FY2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus and target range | Buy consensus from 14 analysts, average target $84.71, with a low of $62 and a high of $115 | StockAnalysis forecast page | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical data | 50-day moving average $76.31, 200-day moving average $71.06, 52-week range $60.42 to $86.68, beta 1.65, RSI near 43 | StockAnalysis statistics page | August 2, 2026 |
This SUNB AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell securities, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios use available public data as of August 2, 2026 and can be wrong if rental demand, fleet economics, margins, leverage, company results, or market conditions change.
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