Scholar Rock Holding Corporation research snapshot
SRRK AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Scholar Rock Holding as a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company whose lead candidate, apitegromab, is a first-in-class myostatin inhibitor targeting muscle function in spinal muscular atrophy. The stock closed at $47.30 on July 31, 2026, down 19% from the July 10 peak of $58.49, giving a market capitalization of about $5.67 billion on 119.83 million shares. The pullback followed the July 20, 2026 update that the European CHMP opinion for the apitegromab MAA is now expected later in 2026 rather than mid-year, pending the FDA classification of the Catalent Indiana fill-finish facility. In the U.S., the FDA accepted the resubmitted BLA with two fill-finish facilities and set a PDUFA action date of September 30, 2026. Scholar Rock ended Q1 2026 with $480 million in cash, equivalents, and marketable securities, but it has no approved products, no revenue, a TTM net loss near $409 million, and an option to draw an additional $150 million from its debt facility plus a priority review voucher monetization upon approval. Q2 2026 results are scheduled for August 6, 2026. This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice.
Current price
$47.30 at the July 31, 2026 close; $48.00 pre-market on August 3, 2026
Market cap
$5.67 billion computed as $47.30 x 119.83 million shares outstanding, cross-checked against the StockAnalysis.com quote and SEC EDGAR filings
AI score
50 / 100
Rating
Pre-revenue SMA biotech with a September 30, 2026 PDUFA date and a Strong Buy consensus, but a 19% pullback from the July high, a CHMP opinion pushed later in 2026, cash burn, and dilution define the current risk
Trend status
Short-term downtrend after a 19% pullback from the July 10 peak, now below the 50-day moving average but still above the 200-day moving average near $44.70
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Scholar Rock is developing the first muscle-targeted therapy for SMA based on myostatin inhibition, with a differentiated mechanism, but the business has no approved products, no revenue, and a TTM net loss near $409 million, so quality is an unproven thesis rather than a track record. | High |
| Moat | Scholar Rock has a potential moat from its proprietary growth factor activation platform, clinical data for apitegromab, IP protection, and potential FDA orphan and pediatric exclusivity. The moat is narrow because the SMA market already includes Spinraza, Zolgensma, and Evrysdi, and apitegromab targets muscle rather than the SMN mechanism. | Medium |
| Management | Chairman and CEO David Hallal, CFO Vikas Sinha, and the team advanced the BLA to FDA acceptance with two fill-finish facilities and a September 30 PDUFA date, built commercial readiness across about 140 SMA treatment centers, and ended Q1 2026 with $480 million in cash. The capital allocation test is whether they convert approval into a commercially viable launch before needing additional equity. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Scholar Rock is pre-revenue and unprofitable. Q1 2026 operating expenses were $102 million including $80 million of non-cash stock compensation, TTM free cash flow was about -$304 million, and the company funds operations with a $100 million debt drawdown taken in March plus $98 million of net ATM proceeds. Cash and investments of about $480 million provide the runway into the approval window, but commercialization will require more capital. | High |
| Valuation | At $47.30, Scholar Rock has no positive P/E, no revenue multiple, and negative free cash flow, with a price to book near 20.4. The valuation is a market bet on the probability and commercial scale of apitegromab approval and adoption, not a reflection of current earnings. | Medium |
| Technical trend | SRRK peaked at the 52-week high of $58.49 on July 10, 2026 and has since pulled back to $47.30, below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages but still above the 200-day moving average near $44.70. RSI near 39 and an oversold stochastic indicate near-term weakness in an otherwise constructive long-term structure. | Medium |
| Risk level | Very high. Clinical-stage biotech risk includes FDA denial, a delayed EU CHMP opinion that is already confirmed, commercial adoption failure, safety signals, pipeline setbacks, cash burn, dilution, competition from approved SMA therapies, and binary event risk around the September 30 PDUFA and the Catalent Indiana classification. | High |
| AI confidence | Historical facts, filings, the PDUFA date, share count, cash balance, and analyst targets have high AI confidence after cross-validation. Forward scenarios, regulatory probabilities, market adoption rates, and price outcomes have low to medium AI confidence because they depend on events that have not yet occurred. | Medium |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is low for a pre-revenue biotech that has already shown how a single regulatory timing update can move the stock 19%. Even successful FDA approval does not guarantee commercial success, and the path to self-sustaining profitability is several years and multiple financing rounds away. | Low |
SRRK AI stock forecast
The SRRK AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges rather than a single target because the stock is driven by binary regulatory events. The required three-scenario calculation produced negative reference values because TTM EPS is negative, so the practical ranges below anchor on the July 31, 2026 close of $47.30, the analyst consensus target of $59.31, the 200-day moving average near $44.70, and the 52-week range of $27.07 to $58.49. Outcomes depend on FDA approval timing, label scope, commercial adoption, the EU path, pipeline progress, and financing terms.
$60 to $75 scenario range
More likely if the FDA approves apitegromab ahead of or at the September 30 PDUFA with a broad label, the Catalent Indiana facility is reclassified and the launch shows strong patient and physician adoption, the EMA follows with a later-2026 CHMP opinion and approval, and pipeline assets such as subcutaneous apitegromab or SRK-439 progress without excessive cash burn. The H.C. Wainwright target of $65 and the Canaccord target of $62 sit within this range.
$45 to $60 scenario range
More likely if apitegromab is approved around the September 30 PDUFA with a narrower label, launch uptake is gradual due to competition and payer constraints, cash burn continues through the commercial phase, the CHMP opinion slips into the fourth quarter as the company recently guided, and Scholar Rock raises additional capital to fund the launch.
$28 to $44 scenario range
More likely if the FDA requires additional data or issues a complete response letter, Catalent Indiana is not reclassified and the second facility path delays approval, safety signals emerge, commercial uptake disappoints against existing SMA therapies, a pipeline trial fails, or the company needs to raise capital at a deeply discounted price. A sustained break below the 200-day moving average near $44.70 would point toward the lower part of this range.
SRRK AI technical analysis
SRRK AI technical analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff uses the July 31, 2026 close and Barchart and StockAnalysis indicators. The stock fell from the $58.49 52-week high on July 10, 2026 to $47.30 by July 31, below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages but still above the 200-day moving average near $44.70, with RSI near 39 and an oversold stochastic. This static page does not fetch live chart data, so confirm support, resistance, moving averages, momentum, volume, and invalidation levels in a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $47.30 | July 31, 2026 close on Nasdaq, down 3.46% on the day in a $46.92 to $49.33 range, with a $48.00 pre-market print on August 3, 2026. |
| Near support | $46.50 to $47.50 | The July 31 low of $46.92 and the recent closing cluster form a first planning zone below the current price. It is not a guaranteed floor and should be checked against live price action. |
| Major support | $44.68 to $44.76 | The 200-day moving average sits near $44.68 on StockAnalysis.com and $44.76 on Barchart, the trend line that separates the long-term uptrend from a deeper correction. |
| Near resistance | $49.99 to $51.63 | The 50-day moving average near $49.99 (StockAnalysis) or $49.97 (Barchart) and the 20-day moving average near $51.63 form the first overhead supply zone that must be reclaimed to repair short-term momentum. |
| Major resistance | $58.49 (52-week high) | The July 10, 2026 peak. A clean breakout above it with volume would open a new price range, but without a fundamental catalyst it is a reference, not a target. |
| Moving averages | 20-day $51.63, 50-day $49.97, 100-day $48.37, 200-day $44.76 | Barchart reported these levels on August 3, 2026. Price is below the 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day averages and above the 200-day average, so short-term momentum is weak while the long-term trend is intact. |
| Momentum | Bearish but oversold | Barchart reported 14-day RSI near 39.96, 14-day stochastic %K near 10.22% in oversold territory, and 14-day ADX near 24.63 with negative directional index above positive directional index, consistent with a short-term downtrend. |
| Volume | 786,736 shares on July 31 | Below the 20-day average volume near 1.0 to 1.05 million shares. Watch whether any recovery or breakdown is confirmed by volume significantly above the recent average. |
| Volatility | High, typical for clinical-stage biotech | Barchart reported 14-day historic volatility near 41.8% and a 14-day average true range near $2.17. SRRK can gap 10-30% on regulatory news, clinical data, or financing announcements, and the September 30 PDUFA window raises that risk further. |
| Invalidation | Close below $44.68 | A decisive break below the 200-day moving average near $44.68 would weaken the long-term chart structure and point toward the $38 to $42 area next. A regulatory event can override all technical levels. |
SRRK AI trading strategy
The SRRK AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. Pair it with a live chart, the FDA and EMA clinical calendar, the August 6, 2026 Q2 report, the September 30 PDUFA window, current filings, position sizing, and a plan for overnight gaps because biotech catalysts can overwhelm ordinary stops.
Wait for SRRK to reclaim and hold the $49.99 to $51.63 zone formed by the 50-day and 20-day moving averages with volume above the recent average, while a fundamental catalyst such as FDA approval, Catalent Indiana reclassification, or a strong Q2 report supports the move.
A failed reclaim or a decisive close back below $47.50 should invalidate the setup, and a close below the 200-day moving average near $44.68 would break the longer-term trend. Biotech gaps can overrun ordinary stops, so adjust position size accordingly.
If SRRK pulls back without a business-thesis break, compare the price with the cash runway, the PDUFA timeline, the CHMP status, clinical data quality, and competitive positioning. A pullback toward the $44.68 to $46.50 support zone may offer a reference entry for investors who assign a high probability to approval.
Do not average down unless maximum loss, position size, and a fundamental invalidation condition are set in advance. A complete response letter, a failed trial, or a dilutive financing can cut the stock by 40-70% in a single session.
Track the August 6, 2026 Q2 earnings report, the FDA Catalent Indiana inspection classification, the September 30, 2026 PDUFA action date, the CHMP opinion timing for the apitegromab MAA, trial data for OPAL, FORGE, subcutaneous apitegromab, and SRK-439, cash and investments, operating burn, share count, and any ATM or debt facility activity.
Reduce confidence if the regulatory timeline slips further, the EU opinion keeps moving out, safety signals emerge, cash burn accelerates without matching clinical progress, or the company issues equity at a price that dilutes existing holders significantly.
Investment research summary
Scholar Rock is developing apitegromab, a first-in-class monoclonal antibody that selectively inhibits the activation of myostatin, as the first muscle-targeted therapy for spinal muscular atrophy. Patients and physicians pay for a novel mechanism that complements SMN-enhancing therapies by addressing the muscle atrophy that 95% of patients still experience. The company has no approved products, so the business case is entirely a bet on clinical and regulatory outcomes. Buffett-style question: would this still be a good business if the pipeline beyond apitegromab disappeared?
Scholar Rock has a developing moat from its proprietary growth factor activation platform, the clinical evidence for apitegromab, IP protection, and potential FDA orphan and pediatric exclusivity. The SMA treatment market is competitive and includes Spinraza (Biogen), Zolgensma (Novartis), and Evrysdi (Roche), so switching costs to apitegromab would depend on physician education, patient experience, and long-term data. Buffett-style question: ten years after a well-funded competitor enters with a better or safer myostatin inhibitor, how much of Scholar Rock value would remain?
The thesis can fail in several ways. The FDA may require additional data or issue a complete response letter around the September 30 PDUFA, and the July 20, 2026 update already confirms the EU CHMP opinion is delayed into later 2026 pending the Catalent Indiana classification. Even if approved, apitegromab may not reach commercial expectations against established SMA therapies. Pipeline candidates such as SRK-439, SRK-181, and the FSHD program may fail in earlier-stage trials, and cash burn near $300 million a year may force equity financing that dilutes holders. Munger-style question: what single fact would make the current valuation look obviously too optimistic?
Chairman and CEO David Hallal, CFO Vikas Sinha, and the team guided the apitegromab BLA to FDA acceptance with two fill-finish facilities and a September 30, 2026 PDUFA date, built commercial readiness across about 140 SMA treatment centers and 2,600 prescribing physicians, and ended Q1 2026 with $480 million in cash after drawing $100 million from the debt facility and taking in $98 million of net ATM proceeds. Upon approval the company has an option to draw an additional $150 million from the debt facility and plans to monetize a priority review voucher. Management question: if the CEO left, would the clinical and regulatory engine still function?
SMA treatment is shifting from SMN-enhancing therapies alone toward combination approaches that also address muscle function and survival, and apitegromab targets the muscle weakness component that existing therapies do not fully address. The rare-disease neuromuscular market has clear regulatory pathways, strong pricing precedent, and motivated patient communities, with up to 35,000 SMA patients worldwide who have received at least one SMN-targeted therapy, and Cure SMA data showing roughly one-third of US patients have tried more than one SMN therapy. Li Lu-style question: in twenty years, will myostatin inhibition be a standard component of SMA care or an abandoned hypothesis?
At $47.30, the estimated market value is about $5.67 billion against zero revenue, a TTM net loss near $409 million, negative free cash flow near $304 million, and a price to book near 20.4. The price reflects the market assessment of apitegromab approval probability, commercial scale, and pipeline optionality, and the stock has already shown it can drop 19% on a one-quarter EU timing update. The margin of safety is minimal unless the reader is willing to assign a high probability to successful FDA approval and significant commercial adoption. Buffett-style question: if the stock market closed for five years, would this price be justified by the cash flows the business could produce in that time?
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| SRRK closing price and range | $47.30 close on July 31, 2026, down $1.70 or 3.46% on the day; session range $46.92 to $49.33; volume 786,736 shares | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization estimate | $5.67 billion computed as $47.30 x 119.83 million shares outstanding, with shares up 25.54% year over year and 17.35% quarter over quarter | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | $5.39 billion | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 119.83 million as of the August 3, 2026 quote, up 25.54% year over year, reflecting ATM and equity activity; insider ownership near 1.02% and institutional ownership near 94.98% | StockAnalysis.com statistics and SEC EDGAR filings | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week price range | Low $27.07; high $58.49 on July 10, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com quote and price history | August 3, 2026 |
| FDA BLA and PDUFA date | FDA accepted the resubmitted apitegromab BLA with two fill-finish facilities (Catalent Indiana and a second US-based facility) and set a PDUFA action date of September 30, 2026; the BLA is a Class II resubmission tied to prior Catalent Indiana inspection observations | Scholar Rock Q1 2026 earnings call and press release | May 7, 2026 |
| CHMP opinion timing update | On July 20, 2026 Scholar Rock said the EU CHMP opinion for the apitegromab MAA is now expected later in 2026, following resolution of the FDA classification of Catalent Indiana or inclusion of the second fill-finish facility in the MAA; the company will update on the August 6, 2026 Q2 call | Scholar Rock press release via Business Wire | July 20, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 financial results | Q1 2026 operating expenses of $102 million including $80 million of non-cash stock-based compensation; ended Q1 with $480 million in cash, equivalents, and marketable securities | Scholar Rock Q1 2026 earnings call | May 7, 2026 |
| Cash and short-term investments | $479.94 million as of March 31, 2026, consisting of $430.54 million in cash and equivalents and $49.40 million in short-term investments | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Total debt | $205.67 million as of March 31, 2026, mostly $196.61 million in long-term debt from the debt facility | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Net cash | $274.27 million as of March 31, 2026, about $2.29 to $2.31 per share on the current share count | StockAnalysis.com statistics and balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM net income and EPS | Net income of -$408.73 million and EPS of -$3.43 for the trailing twelve months, with FY2025 net income of -$377.94 million and EPS of -$3.29 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and income statement | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | -$303.86 million, with operating cash flow of -$303.46 million and capital expenditures of -$0.4 million; FY2025 free cash flow was -$300.64 million | StockAnalysis.com statistics and cash flow | August 3, 2026 |
| Balance sheet position | Current ratio 8.64, quick ratio 8.41, debt to equity 0.75, total assets $535.25 million, and shareholders equity $276.01 million as of March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Pipeline overview | Apitegromab (SMA, BLA under FDA review with PDUFA September 30, 2026); OPAL phase II in infants and toddlers under 2; FORGE phase II in FSHD starting mid-2026; subcutaneous apitegromab; SRK-439, a high-potency myostatin inhibitor in phase I with top-line data expected later this year; SRK-181 in oncology | Scholar Rock Q1 2026 earnings call and pipeline materials | May 7, 2026 |
| Competitive context | Existing SMA therapies: Spinraza (Biogen), Zolgensma (Novartis), Evrysdi (Roche). Apitegromab is a first-in-class muscle-targeted myostatin inhibitor positioned as an add-on to SMN-targeted therapies. | Published SMA treatment reviews and company materials | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy with an average target of $59.31 across 18 analysts, median $58, low $48, and high $70 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 21, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 15 Strong Buy, 3 Buy, 0 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell out of 18 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | July 21, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Wedbush maintained Buy and $58 on July 22, Truist maintained Buy on July 21, Leerink Partners maintained Buy and $59 on July 17, Barclays maintained Buy and $55 on June 18, and Canaccord Genuity reiterated Buy and $62 on June 2 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and TipRanks analyst feed | July 22, 2026 |
| 2026 and 2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate of $6.51 million with EPS of -$3.07, and FY2027 revenue estimate of $149.47 million with EPS of -$2.37 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 21, 2026 |
| Short interest | 17.60 million shares short, 14.69% of shares outstanding, 19.17% of float, about 9.81 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 20-day SMA near $51.63, 50-day SMA near $49.97, 100-day SMA near $48.37, 200-day SMA near $44.76, 14-day RSI near 39.96, 14-day stochastic %K near 10.22%, 14-day ADX near 24.63, 14-day historic volatility near 41.8% | Barchart technical analysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Next earnings date | Q2 2026 financial results scheduled for Thursday, August 6, 2026 before the financial markets open | Scholar Rock press release via Business Wire | July 16, 2026 |
This SRRK AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of returns. Forecast ranges are scenario outputs based on available data and assumptions that can be wrong, as shown by the 19% pullback that followed the July 20, 2026 CHMP timing update. Verify current prices, SEC filings, clinical and regulatory updates, the Catalent Indiana classification, competitive dynamics, tax rules, and personal suitability before making any financial decision.
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