SkyWest, Inc. research snapshot
SKYW AI stock analysis reads SkyWest, Inc. as the largest US regional airline operator, running its flying under long-term capacity purchase agreements with United, Delta, American, and Alaska. The stock closed near $113.75 on July 28, 2026, with a market cap around $4.4 to $4.5 billion. SkyWest reported Q2 2026 revenue up 7% year over year, but net income fell to $100.7 million from $120.3 million a year earlier because fuel costs in its prorate business rose, and the quarter missed analyst estimates. The stock still rallied after earnings because SkyWest added 11 E175 aircraft for American Airlines, raised its buyback by $250 million, and kept a delivery schedule that points toward 300 E175s by the end of 2027. The SKYW AI stock forecast therefore rests on fleet utilization, pilot and mechanic labor costs, CPA stability, prorate fuel, and the risk that a recession or major airline capacity cuts pressure regional flying.
Current price
$113.75
Market cap
about $4.4 to $4.5 billion using about 40.0 million shares from CompaniesMarketCap and Yahoo Finance
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
Well-managed regional airline operator with long-term capacity purchase agreements, fleet growth toward 300 E175s, active buybacks, and a solid balance sheet, balanced by a softer Q2 2026 earnings quarter, fuel and pilot cost pressure, major airline concentration, and a richer valuation than earlier in 2026
Trend status
Above the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages after a strong late-July rally, with 14-day RSI near 65 and positive directional momentum, but the stock remains below its 52-week high of $123.94
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | SkyWest operates the largest US regional airline fleet under long-term capacity purchase agreements that cover fuel, maintenance, and most operating costs for scheduled service, while also leasing aircraft to third parties and running a charter unit. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from CPA relationships with four major airlines, fleet scale with 517 aircraft in scheduled service or under contract at June 30, 2026, pilot and mechanic training infrastructure, and the SkyWest Leasing segment. It narrows if major airlines reduce regional flying or consolidate. | Medium-high |
| Management | Chip Childs and the leadership team have focused on E175 fleet growth toward 300 aircraft by end-2027, buyback execution, and contract stability. The test is managing pilot wage inflation and fuel costs while integrating new aircraft deliveries. | High |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue is about $4.19 billion and TTM net income is about $410 million, but Q2 2026 net income fell 16% year over year to $100.7 million on higher prorate fuel costs. Leverage is moderate with total debt/equity near 86%. | High |
| Valuation | At $113.75, valuation math shows about 11.3x trailing EPS, near 1.6x book value, about 1.07x sales, and EV/EBITDA near 9.8x. Free cash flow is constrained by heavy aircraft capex, with levered FCF near $145 million on a TTM basis. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | SKYW is above the 20-day moving average near $101.81, the 50-day near $94.87, the 100-day near $92.08, and the 200-day near $96.37, giving a bullish moving-average alignment. The 14-day RSI near 64.92 and 14-day ADX near 26.07 with +DI above -DI show positive momentum. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are pilot and mechanic wage inflation, higher fuel in the prorate business, major airline contract renegotiation or consolidation, fleet capex and residual value, recession-driven capacity cuts, and competition from other regional operators. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Data confidence is high because public market data and company filings are available. Forecast confidence is medium because regional airline earnings depend on contract terms, fuel, labor costs, and major airline scheduling decisions. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | SKYW screens as a well-managed regional airline with stable CPA economics, a growing E175 fleet, and active buybacks, but the long-term margin of safety depends on whether the regional airline model generates returns above the fleet capex cycle. | Medium |
SKYW AI stock forecast
The SKYW AI stock forecast uses the $113.75 price reference and TTM diluted EPS of about $10.07, built from a three-year earnings and multiple model. The framework produces a bearish range near $70 to $85, a base range near $115 to $145, and a bullish range near $185 to $220. These are scenario ranges, not price promises.
$185 to $220
More likely if SkyWest grows EPS above 10%, takes the E175 fleet to 300 aircraft on schedule, keeps buybacks reducing the share count, major partners expand regional flying, prorate fuel stays contained, and the market values SKYW near 15 to 16x normalized earnings.
$115 to $145
More likely if EPS holds near $10 to $11, CPA contract economics remain stable, pilot and fuel costs are mostly offset through productivity or contract terms, the E175 transition proceeds on schedule, and the market keeps SKYW near 11 to 13x earnings.
$70 to $85
More likely if air travel demand weakens, major airlines cut regional capacity, pilot or mechanic costs rise faster than CPA pass-through, prorate fuel stays high, E175 deliveries slip, fleet residual values decline, or the market rerates regional airline earnings toward 8x.
SKYW AI technical analysis
SKYW AI technical analysis uses Barchart market data from the late July 2026 session and a July 28, 2026 close near $113.75. Barchart showed SKYW above the 20-day moving average near $101.81, the 50-day near $94.87, the 100-day near $92.08, and the 200-day near $96.37, a bullish moving-average alignment. The 14-day RSI was near 64.92 and the 14-day ADX near 26.07 with +DI at 35.62 well above -DI at 17.26, showing positive directional momentum after a strong late-July rally.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $113.75 | July 28, 2026 close from Yahoo Finance market data. |
| Immediate support | $109 to $110 | Barchart showed the 5-day moving average near $109.88, making the recent breakout zone the first support area. |
| Structural support | $95 to $102 | Barchart showed the 20-day moving average near $101.81 and the 50-day near $94.87, with the 200-day near $96.37 in between. This zone has supported the rally. |
| Near resistance | $115 to $118 | The stock needs to clear the $114 to $118 area above the July 28 close to challenge the 52-week high. |
| Breakout resistance | $123.94 | The 52-week high is $123.94 from the trailing 12-month period, making this the key breakout level above the current range. |
| 20-day moving average | $101.81 | Barchart showed the 20-day SMA at $101.81, well below the stock price, supporting the short-term constructive view. |
| 50-day moving average | $94.87 | Barchart showed the 50-day SMA at $94.87, below the 200-day SMA, confirming the stock is above its key trend averages. |
| 200-day moving average | $96.37 | Barchart showed the 200-day SMA at $96.37, well below the stock price, so the long-term trend is now constructive rather than neutral. |
| Momentum | 14-day RSI near 64.92, ADX near 26.07 | Barchart showed the 14-day RSI at 64.92 and the 14-day ADX at 26.07 with +DI at 35.62 and -DI at 17.26. The ADX indicates a trending market with positive directional pressure. |
| Volume | Average daily volume near 442,000 (50-day) | Barchart showed 50-day average volume of about 441,700 shares. Volume expanded during the late-July rally. |
| Volatility | 14-day ATR near 3.93 (about 3.55%) | Barchart showed the 14-day ATR near 3.93, a moderate level for a small-cap airline stock. |
| Invalidation | Close below $94 | A decisive break below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages near $95 to $96 would weaken the bullish setup and signal that the rally may be ending. |
SKYW AI trading strategy
The SKYW AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects price action with revenue, EPS, block hours, fleet utilization, E175 deliveries, buyback activity, fuel costs, and major airline partner trends.
Watch for SKYW to hold above the $101 to $102 support zone and clear the $115 to $118 resistance area on increasing volume while fleet growth and buyback momentum continue and EPS trends confirm the earnings trajectory.
A close below the 50-day moving average near $94.87, weaker major airline partner demand, another earnings miss, or fuel cost spikes in the prorate business should reduce trend-following confidence.
If SKYW pulls back toward the $101 to $102 area near the 20-day moving average, or toward the $95 to $97 zone near the 50-day and 200-day MAs, without deterioration in CPA economics, fleet utilization, or major airline flying, compare the entry price with the base scenario range.
Do not treat every selloff as attractive if major airline consolidation, pilot wage pressure, recession risk, or a fuel-driven earnings reset is causing a real fundamental change rather than a temporary pullback.
Track quarterly revenue and EPS, block hours, fleet utilization, E175 delivery timing, fuel cost per gallon, pilot and mechanic hiring and wage trends, total debt, cash, aircraft capex, buyback execution, and major airline partner capacity announcements.
Position sizing should reflect that SKYW is a better-positioned regional airline, but the sector has structural concentration risk tied to four major airline partners and heavy aircraft capex.
Investment research summary
Customers are major US airlines (United, Delta, American, Alaska) that pay SkyWest to operate regional flights under capacity purchase agreements, plus third parties that lease aircraft. The business succeeds when SkyWest delivers reliable regional lift, keeps E175 deliveries on schedule, and the major partners maintain or grow their regional networks.
SkyWest benefits from CPA relationships with four major airlines, 517 aircraft in scheduled service or under contract at June 30, 2026, pilot and mechanic training infrastructure, over 2,100 daily flights, and the SkyWest Leasing segment. The moat can narrow if major airlines consolidate, reduce regional flying, or build their own regional capacity.
The thesis fails if major airline partners cut regional capacity, pilot and mechanic wage inflation or fuel costs erode margins beyond what CPAs cover, a recession reduces air travel demand, E175 deliveries slip, fleet residual values drop, or aircraft capex commitments strain the balance sheet.
Chip Childs and the SkyWest leadership team have emphasized E175 fleet growth toward 300 aircraft by end-2027, buyback execution, and contract stability. The capital allocation test is balancing aircraft capex with shareholder returns and keeping leverage moderate.
Regional airlines benefit from major airline reliance on regional lift to feed hubs, but face headwinds from pilot supply, wage inflation, fuel costs, aircraft availability, and the longer-term risk that airline consolidation or fleet strategy changes reduce regional flying.
At $113.75, SKYW trades near 11.3x TTM EPS and about 1.07x sales. The base scenario is near the current price, so the margin of safety is thinner than it was earlier in 2026 and now depends on fleet growth, buybacks, fuel costs, and CPA stability.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $113.75 close, July 28, 2026 | Yahoo Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Market cap | about $4.5 billion as of late July 2026 | Yahoo Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | About 40.0 million shares | CompaniesMarketCap | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $4.19 billion | Yahoo Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $409.91 million | Yahoo Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM diluted EPS | $10.07 | Yahoo Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| P/E ratio (TTM) | 11.30x at $113.75 | Yahoo Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Price/sales (TTM) | 1.07x | Yahoo Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Price/book (MRQ) | 1.58x | Yahoo Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | $6.16 billion | Yahoo Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | 9.80x | Yahoo Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Total cash (MRQ) | $600.98 million | Yahoo Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Total debt/equity | 86.33% | Yahoo Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Return on equity (TTM) | 15.34% | Yahoo Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Levered free cash flow (TTM) | $145.13 million | Yahoo Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $4.06 billion | Barchart | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $428.33 million | Barchart | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2025 operating cash flow | $940.36 million | Barchart | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue | $1.10 billion, up 7% year over year | SkyWest Q2 2026 press release | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 net income | $100.7 million, $2.54 diluted EPS | SkyWest Q2 2026 press release | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 block hours | 396,696, up 5.4% year over year | SkyWest Q2 2026 press release | August 4, 2026 |
| Cash at June 30, 2026 | $601 million | SkyWest Q2 2026 press release | August 4, 2026 |
| Total debt at June 30, 2026 | $2.3 billion | SkyWest Q2 2026 press release | August 4, 2026 |
| Fleet in scheduled service or under contract | 517 aircraft at June 30, 2026, including 272 E175s | SkyWest Q2 2026 press release | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 buyback | 833,000 shares for $75 million; $250 million program increase | SkyWest Q2 2026 press release | August 4, 2026 |
| Moving averages | 20-day near $101.81, 50-day near $94.87, 200-day near $96.37 | Barchart | August 4, 2026 |
| Momentum and volatility | 14-day RSI near 64.92, ADX near 26.07, ATR near 3.93 | Barchart | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $77.89 to $123.94 | Yahoo Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus target | $125.17 average; TD Cowen Buy with $115 target (July 2, 2026) | Yahoo Finance | August 4, 2026 |
This SKYW AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell securities, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 4, 2026 and may be wrong if company results, major airline partner decisions, pilot labor costs, fuel prices, fleet capex and delivery timing, air travel demand, regulation, or market conditions change.
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