Seadrill Limited research snapshot
SDRL AI stock analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff reads Seadrill Limited as a cyclical offshore drilling contractor in a tightening supply-demand market that keeps adding backlog and raising guidance, while the stock still carries negative GAAP earnings and a new $700M senior notes issue. The stock closed at $42.60 on August 3, 2026, down 2.24 or 5.00% from the $44.84 July 31 close, after opening at $45.36 and trading in a session range of $42.35 to $45.38, with an after-hours quote of $43.18, carrying a market capitalization near $2.66 billion that matches the $42.60 price times 62.53 million shares outstanding. The Q1 2026 report, released May 11, 2026, beat estimates with total operating revenues of $358 million versus consensus of $325.53 million, a net loss of only $7 million, adjusted EBITDA of $97 million, and about $860 million of new contract backlog, and management raised full-year 2026 operating revenue guidance to $1.43 billion to $1.48 billion and adjusted EBITDA guidance to $370 million to $420 million. The stock sits just below its 50-day moving average near $43.00 and above its 200-day moving average near $40.15, still up about 53% over the trailing 52 weeks. The AI score sits at 58 out of 100 with a rating of a cyclical recovery with improving fundamentals and continued execution risk, because the business is improving on backlog, dayrates, and cash flow timing while the price still depends on offshore drilling market momentum and the balance sheet now carries more debt.
Current price
$42.60 at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT market close, down 2.24 or 5.00% from the $44.84 July 31 close, after opening at $45.36 and trading in a session range of $42.35 to $45.38, with an after-hours quote of $43.18, up 0.58 or 1.36%
Market cap
$2.66 billion reported by StockAnalysis.com at the August 3, 2026 market close, matching the $42.60 price times 62.53 million shares outstanding with a verified deviation of 0.14% via the financial rigor market cap check, with enterprise value of $2.99 billion
AI score
58 / 100
Rating
Cyclical offshore drilling recovery with a rising contract backlog, raised guidance, and improving dayrate leverage, offset by negative GAAP earnings and a new $700M senior notes issue
Trend status
Sitting just below the 50-day moving average near $43.00 and the 20-day average near $42.55, above the 200-day moving average near $40.15, and trading between the Fibonacci 50% level near $41.53 and the 38.2% level near $44.82
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Seadrill provides contract offshore drilling through a modern fleet of drillships, semi-submersibles, and jack-up rigs. Demand depends on offshore E&P capital spending, which is cyclical but currently supported by tight high-spec rig supply and a renewed deepwater exploration cycle. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from a modern high-spec fleet, long-term relationships with oil super-majors and national oil companies, deepwater and harsh-environment operating expertise, and industry consolidation that has reduced supply growth. It weakens when rigs idle and dayrates collapse in downturns. | Medium |
| Management | Samir Ali (President and CEO) and Grant Creed (EVP and CFO) have led the fleet through the Q1 2026 projects completed ahead of schedule and on budget, roughly $860 million of new backlog, two U.S. Gulf contracts with LLOG, the West Polaris extension with Petrobras, a raised 2026 guidance, and a share repurchase program extension, while the June 2026 $700M senior notes issue raises the debt question that management must now answer. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q1 2026 total operating revenues were $358 million, up from $335 million a year earlier and ahead of the $325.53 million consensus, with adjusted EBITDA of $97 million versus $88 million in the prior quarter and a net loss of $7 million. TTM revenue is about $1.46 billion, TTM net income is about negative $70 million, and TTM EBITDA is about $307 million. Management raised 2026 revenue guidance to $1.43 billion to $1.48 billion and adjusted EBITDA guidance to $370 million to $420 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $42.60, the stock trades at about 0.93x book value, about 1.89x trailing sales, a forward P/E of about 33x, and an EV/EBITDA of about 9.7x, which is moderate for an improving offshore drilling cycle but depends on the market believing the earnings and free cash flow inflection actually arrives. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The stock closed at $42.60 on August 3, 2026, below the 50-day moving average near $43.00 and the 20-day average near $42.55, above the 200-day average near $40.15, and between the Fibonacci 50% level near $41.53 and the 38.2% level near $44.82. RSI near 49.74 is neutral, and the 20-day average volume near 729,000 shares. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is elevated: negative GAAP earnings, negative trailing free cash flow, the new $700M senior notes due 2034 that increase leverage, the 2026 roll-off of legacy dayrate contracts, oil price exposure, U.S. Gulf floater demand softening, a 1.41 beta, an Altman Z-Score of 1.87, and the company's two prior Chapter 11 restructurings. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Data confidence is high because key facts are source-backed and cross-validated across StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR XBRL, the Q1 2026 earnings release, the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q, and the earnings call transcript. Return confidence is lower because SDRL can move sharply with oil prices, offshore drilling dayrates, and quarterly contract announcements. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low. The offshore drilling cycle looks constructive for high-spec rig supply, but the business carries execution and balance sheet uncertainty that requires a wide margin of safety. | Medium-low |
SDRL AI stock forecast
The SDRL AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $42.60 August 3, 2026 market close. It does not claim that AI can predict a specific future price. The scenarios depend on offshore rig dayrates, fleet utilization, oil and gas prices, the timing of the free cash flow inflection, the 2026 recontracting of rolling-off rigs, and the market view on the new $700M senior notes. A three-scenario framework using FY2027 consensus EPS near $3.48 with growth assumptions of 20%, 8%, and negative 10% and exit P/E multiples of 16x, 12x, and 10x produces a bullish area near $67, a base area near $47, and a bearish area near $31 over one year; these are scenario anchors, not price commitments.
$55 to $68
More likely if offshore drilling dayrates keep strengthening, Seadrill recontracts the rolling-off legacy rigs at higher rates, the West Carina is repriced at current market rates, free cash flow turns meaningfully positive in the second half of 2026 as guided, FY2027 consensus EPS near $3.48 is delivered or beaten, and the market assigns a higher multiple to the improved balance sheet and earnings path.
$42 to $52
More likely if dayrates remain stable near current levels, fleet utilization stays high, the company delivers its raised 2026 guidance of $1.43 billion to $1.48 billion revenue and $370 million to $420 million adjusted EBITDA, the $700M notes are absorbed without disrupting liquidity, and the stock holds an EV/EBITDA multiple near the current 9.7x area.
$28 to $38
More likely if oil prices weaken, U.S. Gulf floater demand stays soft, Seadrill struggles to recontract the rolling-off rigs at attractive dayrates, utilization drops, the free cash flow inflection slips, the $700M notes weigh on interest expense and leverage perception, or GAAP losses persist longer than expected.
SDRL AI technical analysis
SDRL AI technical analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff uses the $42.60 August 3, 2026 market close. The stock sits just below the 50-day moving average near $43.00 and the 20-day average near $42.55, above the 200-day moving average near $40.15, and between the Fibonacci 50% level near $41.53 and the 38.2% level near $44.82 of the 52-week range. The 5-day and 20-day moving averages near $42.61 and $42.55 were computed from the StockAnalysis.com daily closing price history through August 3, 2026, and the 50-day and 200-day values plus the 14-day RSI of 49.74 come from the StockAnalysis.com statistics page. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $42.60 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT market close, down 2.24 or 5.00% from the $44.84 July 31 close after opening at $45.36 and trading in a session range of $42.35 to $45.38, with an after-hours quote of $43.18 up 0.58 or 1.36%. |
| Near resistance | $43.00 to $44.82 | The 50-day moving average near $43.00 on StockAnalysis.com statistics and the Fibonacci 38.2% level near $44.82 form the first overhead resistance zone. |
| Fibonacci 38.2% level | $44.82 | The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 52-week range. A sustained reclaim of this level would improve the near-term technical picture. |
| Key resistance | $48.89 | The Fibonacci 23.6% retracement near $48.89. A move above this level would open a path toward the upper part of the 52-week range. |
| 50-day moving average | $43.00 | StockAnalysis.com statistics reported the 50-day moving average near $43.00 on August 3, 2026, just above the current price. |
| 20-day moving average | $42.55 | Computed as the simple average of the twenty closing prices through August 3, 2026 in the StockAnalysis.com daily price history, roughly at the current price. |
| 5-day moving average | $42.61 | Computed as the simple average of the five closing prices through August 3, 2026 in the StockAnalysis.com daily price history, roughly at the current price. |
| Fibonacci 50% level | $41.53 | The 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 52-week range, an intermediate support reference below the current price. |
| 200-day moving average | $40.15 | StockAnalysis.com statistics reported the 200-day moving average near $40.15 on August 3, 2026, below the current price and a key trend reference. |
| Fibonacci 61.8% level | $38.25 | The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 52-week range. A decisive break below this level would weaken the technical picture. |
| 52-week high and low | $55.47 high, $27.60 low | The 52-week range is $27.60 to $55.47. The stock is up about 53% over the trailing 52 weeks. |
| Momentum | RSI near 49.7 | The 14-day RSI was near 49.74 on StockAnalysis.com statistics on August 3, 2026, neutral and not signaling either overbought or oversold conditions. |
| Volume | About 729,000 average shares | StockAnalysis.com statistics listed 20-day average volume near 729,441 shares on August 3, 2026. The August 3 session traded about 579,000 shares. |
| Volatility | High, beta 1.41 | Beta is 1.41 on StockAnalysis.com statistics, and the annualized realized volatility computed from the recent daily closing prices is near 50%, so position sizing should account for large daily swings. |
| Invalidation | Close below $40.15 | A decisive close below the 200-day moving average near $40.15, and then the Fibonacci 61.8% level near $38.25, would turn the medium-term technical picture bearish. |
SDRL AI trading strategy
The SDRL AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It is designed for a cyclical offshore drilling stock with elevated volatility, negative GAAP earnings, improving backlog and dayrate leverage, and exposure to oil prices and offshore E&P spending. Pair it with fresh chart data, filings, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch for SDRL to reclaim and hold the 50-day moving average near $43.00 and then the Fibonacci 38.2% level near $44.82 with improving volume before treating a recovery trend as confirmed.
A failure to hold the 20-day average near $42.55, or a close below the 200-day average near $40.15, should reduce confidence in the recovery setup.
If SDRL pulls back toward the $40 to $42 support zone, which includes the 200-day moving average near $40.15 and the Fibonacci 50% level near $41.53, compare price stabilization with the August 10, 2026 Q2 report, dayrate commentary, and backlog news before acting.
Define a maximum position loss based on portfolio risk. Do not treat the low price-to-book ratio near 0.93x as automatic value without confirming the cash flow and earnings inflection.
Track the August 10, 2026 Q2 2026 earnings report, revenue and adjusted EBITDA versus the raised guidance, dayrate trends, fleet utilization, contract backlog changes, free cash flow timing, the impact of the $700M senior notes on interest expense, and share repurchase activity.
Lower conviction if the company reports contracting dayrates, falling utilization, growing GAAP losses, a slipping free cash flow inflection, or a further deterioration in the balance sheet metrics.
Investment research summary
Seadrill owns and operates offshore drilling rigs, including drillships, semi-submersibles, and jack-up rigs, and contracts them to oil and gas companies for exploration and production drilling. Customers pay a dayrate for the rig, crew, and equipment, with management and reimbursable services adding smaller revenue streams.
The moat comes from a modern high-specification fleet, long-standing customer relationships with oil super-majors and national oil companies such as Petrobras and Sonangol, deepwater and harsh-environment operational expertise, and industry consolidation that has reduced supply growth. The moat is vulnerable to cyclical downturns when rigs are idled and dayrates collapse.
The thesis fails if offshore drilling dayrates decline, Seadrill loses utilization on key rigs, the rolling-off legacy contracts cannot be recontracted at attractive rates, the free cash flow inflection slips, the $700M senior notes burden the balance sheet, oil prices collapse, or another restructuring becomes necessary.
Samir Ali (President and CEO) and Grant Creed (EVP and CFO) have led Seadrill through the post-Chapter 11 relisting, the Aquadrill acquisition, two projects completed ahead of schedule and on budget in Q1 2026, roughly $860 million of new backlog, a raised 2026 guidance, and a repurchase program extension. The June 2026 $700M senior notes issue is the capital allocation decision that needs monitoring.
Offshore drilling is in a structurally favorable phase after years of underinvestment and fleet attrition. High-spec rig supply is tight, deepwater projects remain economically attractive, and management points to a renewed exploration cycle and energy security demand, while flagging a softer 2026 in the U.S. Gulf with capacity expected to redeploy toward the Eastern Hemisphere.
At about 0.93x book value, about 1.89x trailing sales, and an EV/EBITDA of about 9.7x, the stock is not expensive on an asset basis, but negative GAAP earnings, negative trailing free cash flow, and the new $700M notes mean the margin of safety depends on the earnings and cash flow inflection actually arriving as guided.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| SDRL price | $42.60 at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT market close, down 2.24 or 5.00% from the $44.84 July 31 close, after opening at $45.36 and trading in a session range of $42.35 to $45.38, with an after-hours quote of $43.18 up 0.58 or 1.36% | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote and daily price history | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $2.66 billion at the August 3, 2026 market close, verified as $42.60 times 62.53 million shares with a 0.14% deviation via the financial rigor market cap check | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics, financial rigor verification | August 4, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | $2.99 billion on StockAnalysis.com statistics at the August 3, 2026 close, with EV/Sales of 2.13, EV/EBITDA of 9.74, and EV/EBIT of 56.43 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 total operating revenues | $358 million, up from $335 million a year earlier and ahead of the consensus of $325.53 million, including contract revenues of $277 million, management contract revenues of $63 million, leasing revenues of $8 million, and reimbursable revenues of $10 million | Seadrill Q1 2026 earnings release and StockAnalysis.com | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA and net loss | Adjusted EBITDA of $97 million versus $88 million in the prior quarter, with an adjusted EBITDA margin excluding reimbursables of 27.9%, and a net loss of $7 million with diluted loss per share of $0.11 | Seadrill Q1 2026 earnings release and Q1 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 backlog additions | About $860 million of new contract backlog added since the prior call, including West Neptune and West Vela new contracts with LLOG worth about $260 million in the U.S. Gulf, the Sonangol Quenguela seven-well priced option in Angola, and the West Polaris three-year extension with Petrobras in Brazil | Seadrill Q1 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance | Total operating revenues of $1.43 billion to $1.48 billion, raised from $1.40 billion to $1.45 billion and excluding $50 million of reimbursable revenues, adjusted EBITDA of $370 million to $420 million, raised from $350 million to $400 million, and capital expenditure and long-term maintenance of $200 million to $240 million maintained | Seadrill Q1 2026 earnings release | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 balance sheet | Cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash of $329 million, gross principal debt of $625 million, and net debt of $296 million at quarter end, with total liquidity of $482 million including available borrowing capacity on the revolving credit facility | Seadrill Q1 2026 earnings release | August 4, 2026 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | $304 million as of March 31, 2026, matching SEC EDGAR XBRL (304000000) from the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q, down from $339 million at December 31, 2025 | Seadrill Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 4, 2026 |
| Long-term debt | $614 million as of March 31, 2026, matching SEC EDGAR XBRL (614000000), with the Q1 2026 earnings release citing $625 million of gross principal debt | Seadrill Q1 2026 Form 10-Q, SEC EDGAR XBRL, Q1 2026 earnings release | August 4, 2026 |
| Net debt | $296 million, cited in the Q1 2026 earnings release as $625 million of gross principal debt minus $329 million of cash including restricted amounts, with the StockAnalysis.com balance sheet showing about $310 million using cash of $304 million and total debt of $614 million | Seadrill Q1 2026 earnings release and StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | About $1.46 billion in total operating revenues over the trailing twelve months, matching the StockAnalysis.com financials TTM column and cross-checked as FY2025 revenue of $1,437 million plus Q1 2026 revenue of $358 million minus Q1 2025 revenue of $335 million in SEC EDGAR XBRL, while the StockAnalysis.com statistics page shows about $1.41 billion on a narrower revenue basis | StockAnalysis.com financials, SEC EDGAR XBRL, Seadrill Q1 2026 earnings release | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM net income and EBITDA | TTM net income of about negative $70 million, TTM EBITDA of about $307 million, TTM operating income of about $53 million, and TTM EPS of about negative $1.12 to negative $1.13 across StockAnalysis.com pages | StockAnalysis.com income statement and statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | Operating cash flow of about negative $23 million, capital expenditures of about $78 million, and free cash flow of about negative $101 million over TTM, with free cash flow per share of about negative $1.62 | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement and statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 62.53 million shares outstanding as of early May 2026, matching StockAnalysis.com statistics and the SEC EDGAR entity common stock figure of 62,530,508 as of May 6, 2026, down from 62,374,171 as of November 2025 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and SEC EDGAR entity data | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation check | About 0.93x price/book using book value per share near $45.65, about 1.89x trailing sales, about 33x forward P/E, and negative trailing P/E and P/FCF because earnings and free cash flow are negative, with the financial rigor valuation check confirming the PB math at $42.60 divided by $45.65 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financial rigor verification | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average price target of $56.25 across 8 analysts, low $45, high $80, median $55, implying about 32% upside from the August 3 close | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| Recent analyst actions | Barclays reiterated Buy at $59 on July 16, 2026, BWS Financial maintained Buy at $80 on June 29, 2026, BTIG reiterated Buy at $55 on May 13, 2026, Fearnley upgraded to Buy from Hold at $58 on May 12, 2026, and Citi maintained Hold at $48 on April 15, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and ratings | August 4, 2026 |
| 2026 and 2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate of about $1.50 billion with EPS of about $1.07, FY2027 revenue of about $1.70 billion with EPS of about $3.48 | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week range and performance | 52-week range of $27.60 to $55.47, up about 53.24% over the trailing 52 weeks, with beta of 1.41 | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day moving average near $42.61 and 20-day moving average near $42.55 computed from StockAnalysis.com daily price history, 50-day moving average near $43.00 and 200-day moving average near $40.15 on StockAnalysis.com statistics, 14-day RSI near 49.74, 20-day average volume near 729,441 shares, Fibonacci 38.2% level near $44.82 and 50% level near $41.53 of the 52-week range | StockAnalysis.com statistics and daily price history | August 4, 2026 |
| Short interest | 4.84 million shares short, 7.78% of shares outstanding, 4.40 days to cover, up from 4.42 million shares the prior month | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 4, 2026 |
| Share repurchase program | The board authorized a $500 million share repurchase program and on June 22, 2026 extended it to run through December 31, 2026, with about $208 million of the authorized amount remaining as of June 19, 2026, per the June 2026 Form 8-K | Seadrill June 2026 Form 8-K exhibit | August 4, 2026 |
| $700M senior notes | Seadrill announced the pricing of an upsized private offering of $700 million senior notes due 2034 in June 2026, after initially announcing a $600 million offering, adding to the company debt profile | Seadrill June 2026 press release via StockAnalysis.com news | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 earnings date | Next earnings date of Monday, August 10, 2026, before market open, confirmed by StockAnalysis.com and the Seadrill scheduling announcement of July 14, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com quote and Seadrill press release | August 4, 2026 |
| Financial strength scores | Altman Z-Score of 1.87 and Piotroski F-Score of 3 on StockAnalysis.com statistics, with ROE of negative 2.43%, ROA of 1.19%, ROIC of 2.43%, a current ratio of 1.94, and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.22 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
This SDRL AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 4, 2026 and can be wrong. Seadrill operates in a cyclical industry with significant volatility, carries negative GAAP earnings, and has a history of restructuring. Past performance does not predict future results.
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