Service Corporation International research snapshot
SCI AI stock analysis currently reads Service Corporation International as North America's largest funeral, cemetery, and cremation operator with national scale, preneed backlog economics, and steady cash return to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. The July 12, 2026 analysis is not a buy signal: the July 10 close was $77.47, the verified market capitalization was about $10.69 billion, and the stock priced in mid-teens growth quality at about 20.4x trailing EPS of $3.79. The SCI AI stock forecast is therefore scenario-based. Funeral volumes, cemetery preneed production, cremation mix, trust-fund returns, leverage, and capital allocation determine the range. This page is informational only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$77.47 at the July 10, 2026 close
Market cap
$10.69 billion verified market cap
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Scale leader in North American deathcare with durable cash generation, leverage, and cremation-mix pressure
Trend status
Range-bound near the middle of the 52-week band, with mixed short-term signals and a constructive preneed production backdrop
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | SCI sells atneed and preneed funeral and cemetery products across a dense North American footprint, monetizing both immediate service needs and multi-year prepaid arrangements. | High |
| Moat | The moat is local brand portfolios, real-estate and cemetery inventory, scale purchasing, preneed sales force density, and regulatory operating know-how. It is not unlimited pricing power against low-cost direct cremation. | Medium-high |
| Management | Chairman and CEO Tom Ryan has run a multi-year playbook of preneed growth, selective acquisitions, buybacks, and dividends. Capital returns are active, and leverage remains a standing constraint. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue was about $4.33 billion and TTM net income about $536 million. Q1 2026 revenue rose 2% while funeral services performed fell 6% and cemetery preneed production rose about 10%. | High |
| Valuation | At $77.47, audited input math gives about 20.4x TTM EPS, 6.8x book value near $11.47, and roughly 22x free cash flow per share near $3.50, with a dividend yield near 1.8%. | High |
| Technical trend | Price sat in the middle of a roughly $68 to $89 52-week range, near short-term averages and below longer averages in mid-July vendor snapshots, so the tape looked range-bound rather than in a clear breakout. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are funeral volume declines, higher cremation mix, trust-fund market drawdowns, interest expense and leverage, acquisition integration, weather or public-health shocks, and regulatory or litigation costs. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Data confidence is high for reported history and lower for price targets because demographic tailwinds can be offset by mix and capital-structure effects. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Scale and cash generation support a constructive long view, but leverage and volume or mix surprises reduce certainty at a low-20s earnings multiple. | Medium |
SCI AI stock forecast
The SCI AI stock forecast uses the $77.47 July 10 reference, TTM EPS near $3.79, and a three-year scenario calculation. Mechanical outputs center near about $111 in the bullish case, $81 in the base case, and $55 in the bearish case before dividends. These are scenario outputs, not price predictions.
$100 to $115 before dividends
More likely if adjusted EPS compounds near the high end of the long-term 8% to 12% growth framework, cemetery and funeral preneed production stay strong, average revenue per service rises, buybacks continue, and investors sustain a low-20s earnings multiple.
$75 to $90 before dividends
More likely if earnings grow near mid-single digits to high-single digits, funeral volumes stabilize after recent declines, cremation mix pressure is offset by pricing and merchandise, and the market keeps a high-teens multiple.
$50 to $60 before dividends
More likely if funeral volumes remain soft, cremation share rises faster than pricing can offset, trust markets or interest costs pressure results, leverage limits capital returns, or the multiple compresses toward the mid-teens.
SCI AI technical analysis
SCI AI technical analysis uses market-data snapshots around early to mid July 2026 because this static page does not request live quotes. Macrotrends and multi-source quotes placed the July 10 close near $77.47, with a 52-week range near $68.41 to $88.67. A Chartmill snapshot near July 2 listed SMA(50) about $76.75, SMA(200) about $79.70, and RSI(14) near 58. A stockinvest.us note around July 9 placed short-term and longer moving-average references near $77.26 and $74.72. Levels are zones, not exact trade instructions.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price reference | $77.47 on July 10, 2026 | Macrotrends and multi-source closes clustered near this level. Confirm live prices before acting. |
| Near support | $74 to $76 | This zone groups the July 9 long-term moving-average reference near $74.72 and recent trading lows into the mid-$70s. |
| Secondary support | $68 to $70 | The 52-week low area near $68.41 is the next major downside zone if the mid-$70s shelf fails. |
| Near resistance | $79 to $82 | The July 2 SMA(200) reference near $79.70 and the low-$80s prior supply zone sit overhead. |
| Upper resistance | Near $88 to $89 | The 52-week high area near $88.67 is the upper bound of the recent range and would need strong volume and fundamental confirmation. |
| Moving averages | SMA50 near $76.75, SMA200 near $79.70 | Chartmill readings around July 2, 2026. Different vendors and observation times can show different values. |
| Momentum | RSI(14) near 58 on one July 2 snapshot | Neutral-to-mildly constructive momentum that did not independently confirm a breakout or breakdown. |
| Volume and volatility | Confirm with a live chart | Earnings, guidance changes, flu-season death trends, trust-fund markets, buyback pace, and acquisition headlines can change volume quickly. |
| Invalidation | Close below $74 after failing to reclaim $79 to $82 | That sequence would weaken a range-break trend-following thesis. It is a framework condition, not a personalized stop instruction. |
SCI AI trading strategy
The SCI AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized investment advice. It links chart zones with funeral volumes, average revenue per service, cemetery preneed production, cremation mix, trust-fund returns, free cash flow, leverage, dividends, and buybacks.
Wait for SCI to hold above the $74 to $76 support zone and reclaim the $79 to $82 area while preneed production, average revenue per service, and volume confirm the move.
Reduce trend confidence if price closes below $74 after failing to recover $79 to $82, especially if funeral volumes keep declining or management softens cash-flow or EPS guidance.
If SCI tests support while cemetery production, pricing, and cash conversion remain intact, compare valuation with normalized volume assumptions rather than peak flu-season comparisons.
Do not treat a lower price as value if it follows weaker preneed sales, rising cremation mix without pricing offsets, higher interest expense, or a balance-sheet shock.
Track funeral services performed, average revenue per service, cremation rates, cemetery preneed production, adjusted EPS guidance, operating cash flow, maintenance capex, net debt, dividend growth, and share-repurchase pace.
Position sizing should reflect leverage and volume cyclicality. SCI is a cash-returning consolidator, not a risk-free demographic bond substitute.
Investment research summary
Customers pay SCI because death creates urgent need for funeral direction, cemetery property, cremation, memorialization, and related merchandise. Families also prepay through preneed contracts, which funds backlog revenue and helps lock local market share before the event of death.
The moat rests on local brand equity under names such as Dignity Memorial, cemetery real estate scarcity in key markets, a large sales force for preneed, national scale in purchasing and trust administration, and the difficulty of assembling a comparable multi-state network. Low-cost direct cremation remains a real competitive pressure.
The thesis can fail if deaths in SCI markets fall for an extended period, cremation accelerates faster than price and mix management, trust assets require funding or produce weak returns, interest costs rise against high leverage, acquisitions disappoint, or reputation and litigation damage local brand trust.
Under Tom Ryan, SCI has emphasized preneed production, selective M&A, digital and sales productivity, and returning cash through dividends and buybacks. The open question is whether leverage and volume volatility leave enough room if growth slows below the long-term 8% to 12% adjusted EPS framework.
Aging demographics support long-term service demand in North America, while the structural rise in cremation and simpler memorial choices pressures average ticket and mix. Operators with cemetery inventory, preneed pipelines, and multi-location scale are better placed than pure independent funeral homes, but the industry is not free of competition or regulation.
At $77.47 and about 20.4x trailing earnings, the market prices SCI as a quality compounder rather than a deep-value special situation. A larger margin of safety would require either a lower entry multiple or clearer evidence that volume, mix, and leverage risks are contained while free cash flow funds both growth and shareholder returns.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quote and market-cap verification | $77.47 close and $10.69 billion calculated as $77.47 multiplied by 137.97 million shares (0.01% variance vs reported $10.69B) | Macrotrends SCI price history and StockAnalysis statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | About 137.97 million shares outstanding; 138,147,494 shares outstanding at March 31, 2026 on the company balance sheet | StockAnalysis statistics and SCI Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | About $4.33 billion revenue and $535.54 million net income; EPS $3.79 | StockAnalysis and Yahoo Finance key statistics cross-check | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and free cash flow | About $4.309 billion annual revenue and $0.554 billion free cash flow for 2025 | Macrotrends SCI revenue and free cash flow series | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $257.96 million cash and about $5.16 billion total debt; net cash about -$4.90 billion | SCI Q1 2026 balance sheet and StockAnalysis statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating results | Revenue $1,096.5 million; GAAP diluted EPS $0.97; adjusted EPS $0.97; operating cash flow $333.8 million | Service Corporation International Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Segment and volume signals | Comparable funeral services performed -6%; comparable cemetery preneed production about +10%; total comparable cremation rate 64.5% | SCI Q1 2026 earnings release segment appendix | July 12, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance and footprint | Adjusted EPS outlook $4.05 to $4.35; 1,487 funeral locations and 503 cemeteries at March 31, 2026; about 18% U.S. and Canada revenue share in company materials | SCI Q1 2026 outlook and company investor presentation snapshot | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation arithmetic | PE 20.44x, PB 6.75x, FCF yield about 4.5%, dividend yield about 1.76% at $1.36 annual dividend | financial_rigor.py verify-valuation using multi-source inputs | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | July 2 SMA50 near $76.75, SMA200 near $79.70, RSI(14) near 58; 52-week range about $68.41 to $88.67 | Chartmill technical page and multi-source 52-week ranges | July 12, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation. Forecast scenarios use available data and assumptions that can be wrong. Markets, volumes, consumer mix, trust returns, interest rates, and regulations can change quickly, and you should verify current information and consider professional advice before making an investment decision.
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