Red Rock Resorts, Inc. research snapshot
RRR AI stock analysis reads Red Rock Resorts as the dominant Las Vegas locals casino operator under the Station Casinos brand. The page uses a scenario framework, not a certain price prediction. At the August 3, 2026 cutoff, the quoted price was $65.04, market capitalization was about $6.47 billion, and the stock sat near its 52-week high of $68.99. The main decision point is whether Durango ramp and Las Vegas population growth can offset high debt leverage and the consumer-cycle risk that comes with locals gaming. Q2 2026 earnings were scheduled for August 4, 2026, after this cutoff. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$65.04
Market cap
$6.47 billion
AI score
62 / 100
Rating
Solid locals casino operator with leverage and consumer-cycle risk
Trend status
Uptrend near the 52-week high with strengthening momentum
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Red Rock Resorts operates Station Casinos, the dominant locals casino operator in the Las Vegas Valley with more than 15 gaming properties including Red Rock Resort, Palace Station, Green Valley Ranch, and Durango Casino & Resort, which opened in December 2023. | Medium |
| Moat | The moat comes from local market concentration, scarce gaming-entitled land in Las Vegas, repeat local patronage, and a dual-class structure that keeps long-term control with the Fertitta family. | Medium-low |
| Management | Frank Fertitta III serves as Chairman and CEO and Lorenzo Fertitta as Vice Chairman, giving the family deep Las Vegas gaming experience and controlling ownership. The key governance concern is the standing NLRB case on Station Casinos labor practices. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $2.01 billion, up 3.74% from $1.94 billion in FY2024, with net income of $188.07 million, up 22%. TTM EBITDA is about $791.68 million and free cash flow is about $244.77 million, both positive, but the balance sheet carries $3.61 billion in total debt. | Medium |
| Valuation | The TTM P/E of about 20.6x to 20.8x is reasonable for a regional casino operator with buyback yield near 11.6%. EV/EBITDA of about 12.6x is elevated because of the large debt load, so margin of safety is moderate. | Medium-low |
| Technical trend | Uptrend near the 52-week high with strengthening short-term momentum. The stock is up about 23.4% over three months. Use live moving averages, support, resistance, RSI, volume, and invalidation levels before acting. | Medium |
| Risk level | The thesis can fail if consumer spending slows in a recession, union labor costs rise from the NLRB case, construction costs squeeze margins, the Fertitta family faces key-person risk, or Las Vegas visitation declines. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Medium data confidence for financial mapping and valuation math. Lower confidence for forward returns because the gaming sector is tied to consumer cycles and leverage. | Medium data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low-medium certainty because the page gives a framework, not personalized advice. RRR requires ongoing monitoring of Q2 2026 earnings, Las Vegas consumer data, and union developments. | Low-medium |
RRR AI stock forecast
The RRR AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $65.04 quote rather than a point target. Sell-side consensus is Strong Buy with a $71.82 average target, and the low and high analyst targets are $61 and $78. The bullish case requires Durango margin expansion and a clear breakout above resistance; the bearish case assumes union costs or a consumer downturn become visible.
$72.00 to $82.00
More likely if Red Rock Resorts delivers margin expansion from the Durango ramp, Las Vegas visitation stays strong, and the price closes above the $68.99 high with volume confirmation. The high sell-side target of $78 sits inside this range.
$61.00 to $73.00
More likely if fundamentals stay mixed and the stock trades around the $71.82 average analyst target while investors wait for Q2 2026 earnings and fresh Las Vegas macro data. The low sell-side target of $61 marks the bottom of this range.
$50.50 to $61.00
More likely if these risk paths appear: union costs rise from the NLRB case, a recession cuts local gaming spend, leverage limits capital returns, or technical support near $59.75 to $62.00 breaks after the data cutoff.
RRR AI technical analysis
RRR AI technical analysis starts from the $65.04 quote near the 52-week high of $68.99. The 50-day moving average is $61.93 and the 200-day moving average is $59.44, so the price is above both trend lines. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, live confirmation in a charting tool is required before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $65.04 | Current quote used for this page as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Near support | $63.00 to $63.72 | Barchart lists first support at $63.72 and second support at $63.00. Treat as a planning zone, not a guaranteed floor. |
| Near resistance | $66.33 to $67.05 | Barchart lists second resistance at $66.33 and third resistance at $67.05. The 52-week high of $68.99 is the key level above this band. |
| 50-day moving average | $61.93 | The price is above the 50-day moving average, a sign of short-term trend support, as of the August 3, 2026 cutoff. |
| 200-day moving average | $59.44 | The price is above the 200-day moving average, confirming a longer-term uptrend as of the August 3, 2026 cutoff. |
| Momentum | Upward with strengthening short-term outlook | Barchart technical opinion is an 88% buy with a strengthening short-term outlook, and the stock is up about 23.4% over three months. |
| Volume | Confirm with live data | 20-day average volume is about 586,180 shares. Volume analysis should be checked on the breakout level before entry. |
| Volatility | Moderate to high | Beta is 1.35, so the stock is more volatile than the market. Options implied volatility near 44% with an 88% IV percentile signals elevated event risk around earnings. |
| Invalidation | Close below $61.93 | A decisive close below the 50-day moving average at $61.93, then the $59.75 Fibonacci level, would weaken the short-term setup. |
RRR AI trading strategy
The RRR AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with position sizing, stop levels, and a check of Q2 2026 earnings and fresh Las Vegas economic data.
Wait for RRR to hold above the $63.00 to $63.72 support band and push through the $68.99 high with volume that confirms buyer demand. The strengthening Barchart short-term outlook supports this type of watch.
A close back below $63.00 or a failed breakout at $68.99 should invalidate the setup.
If RRR pulls back into the $61.93 to $63.72 zone without a thesis break, compare price action with Q2 2026 earnings, Las Vegas visitor data, and the next sell-side estimate revisions.
Do not average down without a predefined maximum loss and a fresh review of the leverage and consumer-cycle risk.
Track the evidence that matters most for Red Rock Resorts: Durango margin ramp, same-store revenue trends at Station Casinos properties, union cost developments, capital return through dividends and buybacks, and Las Vegas population and employment data.
Reduce confidence when price moves are driven by headlines without matching financial evidence, especially near the earnings date.
Investment research summary
Red Rock Resorts owns and operates Station Casinos, the dominant locals casino operator in the Las Vegas Valley, selling gaming, dining, and entertainment to residents who live minutes away.
The moat is built from local market concentration, scarce gaming-entitled land positions, brand loyalty among Las Vegas locals, and long-term family control through a dual-class structure.
The thesis can fail if a recession cuts local consumer gaming spend, union costs rise from the NLRB case, construction costs squeeze margins, the Fertitta family faces key-person issues, or the high debt load limits capital returns.
Frank Fertitta III (Chairman and CEO) and Lorenzo Fertitta (Vice Chairman) have decades of Las Vegas gaming experience and controlling ownership. The standing NLRB labor case remains the main governance and cost risk.
Las Vegas benefits from long-term Southwest population growth, but the locals casino segment tracks local employment, housing, and discretionary income, which are cyclical.
Valuation assumes steady Las Vegas demand and continued capital returns. Safety margin is moderate if consumer trends hold, but thin if union costs escalate or a recession emerges while debt stays near $3.6 billion.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| RRR price | $65.04 | stockanalysis.com real-time quote, August 3, 2026 | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $6.47 billion, verified as $65.04 x 99.51 million shares (Barchart reports about $6.77B using 105.03M shares) | financial_rigor.py market cap verification, stockanalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Exchange | NASDAQ, Class A common stock, CIK 0001653653 | stockanalysis.com company profile and SEC EDGAR | August 3, 2026 |
| P/E ratio (TTM) | 20.61x, verified as $65.04 / $3.13 EPS | financial_rigor.py valuation verification, stockanalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| EPS (TTM) | $3.13 | stockanalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Revenue (TTM) | $2.02 billion TTM, $2.011 billion for FY2025, up 3.74% year over year | stockanalysis.com financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Free cash flow (TTM) | $244.77 million, operating cash flow of $623.12 million | stockanalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | Regular quarterly dividend of $0.26 ($1.04 annualized, about 1.60% yield), plus a $1.00 special dividend paid February 2026 | stockanalysis.com dividend history and Barchart | August 3, 2026 |
| Debt | $3.61 billion total debt, net debt of about $3.48 billion | stockanalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy from 17 analysts, average price target of $71.82 with a range of $61 to $78 | S&P Global data via stockanalysis.com | July 22, 2026 |
| Technical position | 52-week range $50.52 to $68.99, 50-day MA $61.93, 200-day MA $59.44, RSI 52.19 | stockanalysis.com statistics and Barchart | August 3, 2026 |
| Financial statement depth | Public filings available, including 10-Q filed May 7, 2026 for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 | SEC EDGAR via stockanalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
This RRR AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of August 3, 2026, may be incomplete, and can be wrong if new filings, market prices, Q2 2026 earnings, or macro conditions change.
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