RLI Corp. research snapshot
RLI AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads RLI Corp. as a high-quality specialty property and casualty insurer trading close to full value while the market softens in property and surety. The stock closed at $61.24 on July 31, 2026, with a market capitalization near $5.62 billion, re-verified as $61.24 times 91.77 million shares outstanding, matching the StockAnalysis.com quote and the Q2 2026 earnings release. The Q2 2026 report, released July 22, 2026, beat estimates with net earnings of $1.82 per share versus $1.34 a year ago, operating earnings of $0.83 per share, an 85.6 combined ratio, $59.9 million of underwriting income, a 17% increase in net investment income, and book value per share up 11% from year-end 2025 to $19.09. Management returned more than $200 million to shareholders with a $2.00 special dividend and repurchases near an average of $51.25, and the company retained its Ward's 50 top performer spot for a 36th consecutive year. Offsetting this is a forward operating valuation near 21.5x to 23x on 2026 operating earnings estimates, a 1.5 point rise in the expense ratio to 40.1, premium declines of 6% in both property and surety, a Wells Fargo downgrade to Underweight at a $57 target, and a consensus Hold rating with an average target near $60.50. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$61.24
Market cap
$5.62 billion
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
Quality specialty insurer at a full price in a softening market
Trend status
Above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after a 29% rebound from the May low, below the 52-week high, RSI near neutral
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | RLI underwrites specialty property, casualty, and surety insurance in niche markets where it can price risk with precision. It posted an 85.6 combined ratio and $59.9 million of underwriting income in Q2 2026, a 25% return on equity, and 30 consecutive years of underwriting profits. | High |
| Moat | The moat combines specialty underwriting expertise, empowered underwriter decision-making, broker relationships in niche segments, a 36-year Ward's 50 top performer record, an A++ (Superior) AM Best rating, and 51 consecutive years of regular dividend increases. Scale is moderate relative to larger carriers. | Medium-high |
| Management | Craig Kliethermes and the leadership team have sustained underwriting discipline through a softening market, returned more than $1.3 billion to shareholders over five years, raised the regular dividend 12.5% to $0.18 per quarter, and repurchased 234,973 shares at an average near $51.25 under a new $250 million authorization. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue was about $1.97 billion and TTM net income about $438.7 million. Q2 2026 delivered net earnings of $1.82 per share versus $1.34 a year ago and operating earnings of $0.83 per share, with book value per share up 11% from year-end 2025, though the expense ratio rose 1.5 points to 40.1. | High |
| Valuation | At about 12.9x trailing GAAP earnings, 3.2x book value, and a forward operating multiple near 21.5x to 23x on 2026 operating EPS estimates, RLI is priced close to full value for its quality. The consensus price target is about $60.50, essentially flat to the current price. | Medium |
| Technical trend | RLI closed at $61.24 on July 31, 2026, above its 50-day moving average near $56.82 and 200-day moving average near $58.92, with 14-day RSI near 53. The stock is up about 29% from the May 2026 low of $47.26 but remains below the $69.19 52-week high. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are a deepening soft market in property and surety, casualty brokerage competition, a rising expense ratio, reserve adequacy as favorable prior-year development fades, catastrophe loss severity, litigation and social inflation, and investment portfolio sensitivity to interest rates and equity markets. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts, SEC filings, Q2 2026 results, and valuation math that cross-validated across StockAnalysis.com, the Q2 2026 earnings release, and the earnings call transcript. Lower for forward earnings because the soft market, reserve trends, and investment income trajectory can change quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The page gives a research framework and scenario ranges, not a buy or sell instruction. | Medium |
RLI AI stock forecast
The RLI AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $61.24 July 31, 2026 close and operating earnings power near $3.43 per share on a trailing twelve month basis. It does not claim that AI can predict a specific future price. The bullish case requires casualty rate increases to hold, investment income to keep rising, and the multiple to hold near current levels. The base case assumes steady mid-single-digit operating earnings growth with the stock near its consensus target of about $60.50. The bearish case assumes a deeper soft market, a higher expense ratio, fading reserve development, or multiple compression.
$74 to $84
More likely if casualty premium keeps growing at double digits with rate adequacy intact, umbrella and transportation new business stays strong, net investment income keeps rising near 17%, the expense ratio stabilizes, and the market holds an 18x to 20x operating multiple.
$56 to $66
More likely if RLI sustains an 85 to 88 combined ratio, grows operating earnings at a mid-single-digit rate, keeps returning capital, and investors hold a 15x to 17x operating multiple, roughly in line with the consensus price target near $60.50.
$40 to $48
More likely if the soft market deepens in property and surety, casualty brokerage competition intensifies, the expense ratio keeps climbing, favorable prior-year reserve development fades, catastrophe losses spike, or the multiple compresses toward 12x to 13x operating earnings.
RLI AI technical analysis
RLI AI technical analysis starts from the $61.24 July 31, 2026 close used for this August 3, 2026 static page. The stock sits above its 50-day moving average near $56.82 and 200-day moving average near $58.92 with 14-day RSI near 53, reflecting a neutral to positive setup after a 29% rebound from the May low. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $61.24 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close; the after-hours print was $61.90. |
| Near support | $60.54 to $59.30 | Barchart turning points put first support near $60.54 and second support near $59.30. |
| Secondary support | $56.82 to $55.64 | The 50-day moving average near $56.82 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near $55.64. |
| 52-week low | $47.26 | The May 13, 2026 low. A break below this level would mark a new lower boundary for the stock. |
| Near resistance | $61.78 to $63.02 | Barchart turning points put resistance at $61.78, $62.32, and $63.02. Breakouts need volume confirmation. |
| 52-week high | $69.19 | The August 22, 2025 high. Approaching it would be a significant technical event for a low-beta stock. |
| Beta | 0.33 | Very low volatility relative to the market. RLI tends to drift rather than make sharp directional moves. |
| Average volume | About 929,000 shares | The 20-day average volume on StockAnalysis.com; Yahoo Finance shows about 1.0 million shares. |
| Invalidation | Close below $56.8, then $55.6 | A close below the 50-day moving average weakens the near-term setup. A break below the 38.2% retracement challenges the rebound. |
RLI AI trading strategy
The RLI AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines filing-backed business evidence with technical confirmation, position sizing, and clear invalidation levels for a low-beta specialty insurer operating in a softening market.
Look for RLI to hold above the 50-day moving average near $56.82 and build toward the $61.78 to $63.02 resistance zone with volume before treating range expansion as confirmed. Given the low beta, expect slow, grinding moves rather than sharp breakouts.
A daily close below $56.82 weakens the near-term setup. Reduce exposure if property and surety peers show broad pricing deterioration.
If RLI pulls back toward the $56 to $59 zone without a thesis break, evaluate operating earnings trajectory, the combined ratio, the expense ratio trend, and casualty pricing conditions before considering entry.
Do not average down solely because RLI has a long underwriting record. Define maximum loss, review reserve development, and confirm the pullback is not driven by fundamental deterioration.
Track Q3 2026 results around the October 19, 2026 earnings date, casualty rate adequacy, the expense ratio trajectory, favorable prior-year reserve development, catastrophe experience, net investment income, book value per share growth, and buyback execution.
Lower the rating if the underlying combined ratio trends toward or above 100, if the expense ratio keeps climbing without offsetting growth, or if management signals material pricing deterioration.
Investment research summary
RLI underwrites specialty property, casualty, and surety insurance in niche markets where it has underwriting expertise, pricing precision, and broker relationships, generating underwriting income at an 85.6 combined ratio in Q2 2026 plus investment income on a roughly $4.9 billion portfolio.
The moat comes from specialty underwriting knowledge, empowered underwriter decision-making, broker loyalty in niche segments, a 36-year Ward's 50 top performer record, an A++ (Superior) AM Best rating, 51 years of regular dividend increases, and service relationships built across the insurance cycle.
The thesis can fail if the soft market deepens in property and surety, casualty brokerage competition intensifies, the expense ratio keeps rising, favorable prior-year reserve development fades, catastrophe losses spike, litigation severity rises, or investment income stalls if interest rates fall.
RLI's leadership has sustained underwriting discipline through the cycle, raised the regular dividend 12.5% to $0.18 per quarter, paid a $2.00 special dividend in June 2026, and repurchased 234,973 shares at an average near $51.25 under a new $250 million program, with about $238 million remaining.
RLI operates in the cyclical specialty P&C insurance industry. Overall premium growth continues at 3% with casualty up 11%, but property and surety are shrinking 6% each as the market softens after the hard market of recent years. Long-term demand grows with the economy and insurance penetration.
At about 12.9x trailing GAAP earnings, 3.2x book value, and a forward operating multiple near 21.5x to 23x on 2026 operating EPS estimates, RLI is priced close to full value for a high-quality franchise. The margin of safety is thinner than it was near the May low of $47.26.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| RLI price | $61.24 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote; Yahoo Finance and Barchart quotes | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $5.62 billion, verified as $61.24 x 91,773,000 shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification and Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 91.77 million | Q2 2026 earnings release and StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $1.97 billion | StockAnalysis.com financials and Yahoo Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $438.70 million | StockAnalysis.com and Yahoo Finance, both report $438.7 million | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 net earnings | $1.82 per share, $168.0 million | Q2 2026 earnings release, July 22, 2026 | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 operating earnings | $0.83 per share, $76.9 million | Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call transcript | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 combined ratio | 85.6, with $59.9 million of underwriting income | Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Book value per share | $19.09, up 11% from year-end 2025 | Q2 2026 earnings release and StockAnalysis.com, both report $19.09 | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM diluted EPS | $4.76 | StockAnalysis.com and Yahoo Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| Return on equity | 25.16% TTM on StockAnalysis; 24.5% net earnings trailing four quarters per the company | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 12.86x TTM PE, 3.21x P/B, 2.85x P/S, 10.87x P/FCF from financial_rigor.py | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold, average price target $60.50, low $53, high $74 | StockAnalysis.com forecast page and S&P Global Market Intelligence | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | Regular quarterly $0.18, about 1.18% forward yield, plus a $2.00 special dividend paid June 12, 2026 | Yahoo Finance and Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Investment portfolio | $4.87 billion in total investments and cash at June 30, 2026 | Q2 2026 earnings release summarized balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Debt | $296.97 million long-term debt at June 30, 2026; StockAnalysis reports $318.7 million total debt | Q2 2026 earnings release and StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
This RLI AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong.
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