Rogers Communications Inc. research snapshot
RCI AI stock analysis views Rogers Communications Inc. as a Canadian connectivity and media operator selling wireless, cable internet, business services, media, and sports content. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified NYSE close was $33.85 on July 31. StockAnalysis reported an $18.40 billion market capitalization, while price times 540.23 million reported shares equaled $18.29 billion, a timing difference within 1%. Q2 2026 total revenue rose 8% to C$5.615 billion, adjusted EBITDA rose 3% to C$2.442 billion, and free cash flow rose 6% to C$982 million, but the GAAP result was a net loss of C$665 million driven by a non-cash C$1.034 billion loss on revaluation of the MLSE put liability. The company also agreed to buy the remaining 25% stake in MLSE for C$4.35 billion in cash. This RCI AI stock analysis is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$33.85 NYSE close on July 31, 2026
Market cap
$18.40 billion reported market cap, with an $18.29 billion price-times-shares cross-check
AI score
62 / 100
Rating
Recurring Canadian connectivity franchise with improving free cash flow and lower leverage, balanced by ARPU pressure, competitive intensity, and MLSE acquisition financing
Trend status
Mixed at the dated close, below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages near $35.45 and $36.86 with RSI recovering to 47.81
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Rogers sells wireless, cable internet, business services, media, and sports content. Subscription revenue supports durability, while networks and content require substantial capital. | High |
| Moat | Spectrum, network density, cable infrastructure, brand, distribution, customer relationships, sports rights, and national scale create meaningful barriers, but Canadian telecom competition and regulation constrain returns. | Medium-high |
| Management | Tony Staffieri and the leadership team should be judged on deleveraging, capital discipline, subscriber economics, network returns, and whether the C$4.35 billion MLSE minority purchase and planned sports stake sale improve per-share cash flow. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 revenue rose 8% to C$5.615 billion, adjusted EBITDA rose 3% to C$2.442 billion, and free cash flow rose 6% to C$982 million. The GAAP net loss of C$665 million came from a non-cash MLSE put liability revaluation. | High |
| Valuation | At the dated $33.85 close, the trailing GAAP PE of about 4.2x is distorted by MLSE revaluation items; forward PE is 10.22x, P/FCF is about 9.85x, and the indicated dividend yield is 4.28%. | High |
| Technical trend | The dated $33.85 close was below the 50-day average near $35.45 and 200-day average near $36.86. RSI of 47.81 showed momentum recovering from earlier weak readings. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is high because of leverage, the C$4.35 billion MLSE cash purchase, wireless and broadband competition, ARPU pressure, capital needs, regulation, and sports and media execution risk. | High |
| AI confidence | Historical reporting and reproducible arithmetic are well supported. Forecast confidence is lower because AI cannot know future pricing, churn, regulation, financing costs, or market multiples. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. Strategic network assets have value, but the equity outcome depends on cash flow after capital spending, debt service, and capital allocation rather than the headline PE alone. | Medium-low |
RCI AI stock forecast
The RCI AI stock forecast uses a three-year scenario model around the $33.85 dated close. To avoid treating MLSE revaluation items as recurring, the model uses a US-dollar normalized EPS proxy of about $3.71 derived from trailing 12-month adjusted diluted EPS of C$5.04 and an illustrative currency translation. financial_rigor.py produced about $47 in the bullish case, $35 in the base case, and $25 in the bearish case before dividends. These are conditional scenario outputs, not price promises.
$44 to $50
More likely if wireless ARPU and cable KPIs stabilize or improve, capital intensity stays near the reduced plan, free cash flow reaches or exceeds guidance, leverage falls, the MLSE minority purchase integrates well, and the market applies about 11x normalized earnings.
$33 to $38
More likely if service revenue and adjusted EBITDA grow within guidance, free cash flow improves, competition stays rational, debt reduction continues, and the market applies about 9x normalized earnings.
$22 to $27
More likely if ARPU declines or churn rises, the C$4.35 billion MLSE purchase raises financing costs, free cash flow misses guidance, sports and media spending fails to earn returns, or the market applies about 7x lower normalized earnings.
RCI AI technical analysis
RCI AI technical analysis was mixed at the August 2, 2026 cutoff, using the latest verified July 31 NYSE close of $33.85. StockAnalysis listed a 50-day moving average of $35.45, a 200-day moving average of $36.86, RSI of 47.81, 20-day average volume of about 1.47 million shares, and a 0.79 five-year beta. Refresh every level on a live chart before acting because this is a static snapshot.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $33.85 | NYSE close on July 31, 2026 used for the static market-cap and valuation calculations. |
| Near support | $32.50 to $33.50 | This band brackets the dated close and should be checked against a live chart before use. |
| Secondary support | $30 to $31.50 | This is a risk-management reference near the dated 52-week low of $31.38, not a forecast or guaranteed floor. |
| Near resistance | $35.50 to $37 | This zone contains the dated 50-day average near $35.45 and 200-day average near $36.86. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $35.45, 200-day $36.86 | Price was below both averages at the cutoff, leaving the intermediate trend mixed. |
| Momentum | RSI 47.81 | The dated RSI was recovering from earlier weak readings but is not by itself a reliable buy signal. |
| Volume | about 1.47 million shares | This was the dated 20-day average volume. A breakout needs current volume confirmation. |
| Volatility | 5-year beta 0.79 | Lower historical beta does not remove event risk around earnings, MLSE integration, regulation, or capital allocation. |
| Invalidation | Failure to hold $32.50 to $33.50 | A sustained live close below the dated support band weakens a rebound setup. Recheck the current chart before setting any stop. |
RCI AI trading strategy
The RCI AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for a leveraged telecom and media operator, not personal financial advice. Update it with live price and volume data, earnings releases, subscriber KPIs, free-cash-flow guidance, debt metrics, MLSE integration progress, capital spending, and regulatory developments.
Wait for RCI to reclaim and hold the $35.50 to $37 moving-average zone on stronger live volume, with results showing stable wireless ARPU and cable KPIs, rising free cash flow, and continued debt reduction.
Treat a failed reclaim of the moving averages or a new close below the support band as a reason to reassess rather than averaging down mechanically.
If RCI remains near the $32.50 to $33.50 area, compare live valuation with normalized cash flow, debt, interest expense, capital intensity, dividend coverage, subscriber trends, and sports-media capital commitments including the MLSE purchase.
Do not assume a low RSI or dividend yield is a floor. Define position size and invalidation before entry, especially around earnings, regulatory news, and capital-allocation announcements.
Track wireless postpaid additions and churn, mobile ARPU, internet additions, service revenue, adjusted EBITDA, capital intensity, free cash flow, leverage, interest costs, MLSE integration and the planned minority stake sale, and Canadian regulatory decisions.
Reduce confidence if free cash flow misses guidance, leverage rises, ARPU declines or churn worsens, competition drives persistent price cuts, or MLSE investment needs exceed the return earned.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Rogers for mobile and fixed connectivity, cable internet, business services, media, and sports content. The recurring proposition is reliable access to communications networks and differentiated entertainment.
Q2 2026 total revenue rose 8% to C$5.615 billion and adjusted EBITDA rose 3% to C$2.442 billion. Free cash flow rose 6% to C$982 million, and the GAAP result was a net loss of C$665 million from a non-cash MLSE put liability revaluation.
Rogers benefits from spectrum, wireless and cable infrastructure, distribution, brand, installed relationships, network scale, and premium sports-media rights. The moat is durable but not absolute because peers, regulation, and technology alternatives constrain pricing and returns.
The thesis fails if ARPU declines or pricing competition and churn rise, capital spending stays high, the C$4.35 billion MLSE acquisition raises financing costs, free cash flow misses guidance, regulation changes network economics, a major outage damages trust, or sports and media investment earns below its cost of capital.
The central management test is capital allocation. Investors need evidence that network, media, and MLSE investments earn more than their financing cost while leverage and capital intensity decline and per-share free cash flow improves, including the planned sale of a minority stake in Rogers Sports.
Mobile data, fibre, cloud connectivity, IoT, and digital media can support demand. Counterweights are mature market penetration, ARPU pressure, capital intensity, spectrum costs, regulation, streaming competition, and lower-cost connectivity alternatives.
The dated $33.85 price equated to about 9.85x trailing free cash flow and a 4.28% indicated dividend yield in the financial-rigor calculation. The low trailing GAAP PE of about 4.2x should not be read as normalized because MLSE revaluation items moved reported earnings. Margin of safety depends on recurring cash flow after capital spending and debt service.
The research stance is watchful rather than categorical. A stronger case needs free-cash-flow delivery, deleveraging, stable subscriber and ARPU indicators, credible returns on MLSE, and a trend recovery. A weaker case is signalled by cash-flow shortfalls, more leverage, worsening churn or ARPU, or returns below the cost of capital.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYSE price, market cap, shares, valuation, and technical snapshot | $33.85 July 31 close, $18.40 billion reported market cap, 540.23 million shares, about 4.2x trailing PE, 10.22x forward PE, 9.85x P/FCF, 50-day $35.45, 200-day $36.86, RSI 47.81 | StockAnalysis, sourced from S&P Global Market Intelligence and Fiscal.ai | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | C$5.615 billion revenue, C$2.442 billion adjusted EBITDA, C$982 million free cash flow, C$665 million net loss from MLSE put liability revaluation, adjusted diluted EPS of C$1.15, and 3.8x debt leverage | Rogers Q2 2026 earnings release, SEC 6-K Exhibit 99.3 | July 22, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 MD&A and balance sheet | C$1,726 million cash, C$35,191 million long-term debt, C$90,303 million total assets, C$6.1 billion available liquidity, and 540,225,278 common shares | Rogers Q2 2026 MD&A, SEC 6-K Exhibit 99.1 | July 22, 2026 |
| MLSE minority acquisition | Agreement to acquire the remaining 25% of MLSE from Kilmer Sports for C$4.35 billion in cash, expected to close in the fourth quarter, with a minority stake sale in Rogers Sports planned thereafter | Rogers Q2 2026 earnings release, SEC 6-K Exhibit 99.3 | July 22, 2026 |
| 2026 capital and free-cash-flow guidance | C$2.5 billion to C$2.7 billion capital expenditures and C$4.1 billion to C$4.3 billion free cash flow, reaffirmed | Rogers full-year consolidated guidance | July 22, 2026 |
| Market-cap cross-check | $33.85 x 540.23 million shares = $18.29 billion, versus $18.40 billion reported market cap, a 0.62% timing difference | financial_rigor.py verify-market-cap using StockAnalysis inputs | August 2, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation. Forecast scenarios use available data and explicit assumptions and can be wrong. Verify current prices, filings, currency assumptions, MLSE transaction status, and personal risk constraints before making any investment decision.
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