Rogers Communications Inc. research snapshot
RCI AI stock analysis currently views Rogers Communications Inc. as a Canadian connectivity and media operator selling wireless, cable internet, business services, media, and sports content. At the July 11, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified NYSE close was $32.48 on July 7. StockAnalysis reported a $17.17 billion market capitalization, while price times 540.23 million reported shares equaled $17.55 billion, a timing difference that should not be hidden. The 2025 GAAP result included a large MLSE revaluation gain, so recurring cash flow, leverage, capital spending, subscriber execution, and normalized earnings matter more than the headline trailing PE. This RCI AI stock analysis is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$32.48 NYSE close on July 7, 2026
Market cap
$17.17 billion reported market cap, with a $17.55 billion price-times-shares cross-check
AI score
61 / 100
Rating
Recurring Canadian connectivity franchise, balanced by leverage, capital allocation, and competitive risks
Trend status
Weak at the dated close, below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages with soft momentum
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 11, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Rogers sells wireless, cable internet, business services, media, and sports content. Subscription revenue supports durability, while networks and content require substantial capital. | High |
| Moat | Spectrum, network density, cable infrastructure, brand, distribution, customer relationships, sports rights, and national scale create meaningful barriers, but Canadian telecom competition and regulation constrain returns. | Medium-high |
| Management | Tony Staffieri and the leadership team should be judged on deleveraging, capital discipline, subscriber economics, network returns, and whether MLSE ownership improves per-share cash flow. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was C$21.712 billion and net income was C$6.906 billion. Q1 2026 revenue rose 10% to C$5.482 billion and free cash flow rose 32% to C$776 million, but FY2025 earnings included an MLSE revaluation gain. | High |
| Valuation | At the dated $32.48 close, financial_rigor.py calculated 3.48x trailing EPS, 0.99x book value, 9.50x trailing free cash flow, and a 4.46% indicated dividend yield. The trailing PE is not a clean normalized valuation measure. | High |
| Technical trend | The dated $32.48 close was below the 50-day average near $36.36 and 200-day average near $37.02. RSI of 32.12 indicated weak momentum, not proof of a reversal. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is high because of leverage, interest expense, wireless and broadband competition, capital needs, regulation, cyber and outage risk, subscriber churn, and execution on sports and media investments. | High |
| AI confidence | Historical reporting and reproducible arithmetic are well supported. Forecast confidence is lower because AI cannot know future pricing, churn, regulation, financing costs, or market multiples. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. Strategic network assets have value, but the equity outcome depends on cash flow after capital spending, debt service, and capital allocation rather than the headline PE alone. | Medium-low |
RCI AI stock forecast
The RCI AI stock forecast uses a three-year scenario model around the $32.48 dated close. To avoid treating the MLSE revaluation gain as recurring, the model uses a US-dollar normalized EPS proxy of $3.66 derived from FY2025 adjusted diluted EPS of C$5.02 and an illustrative currency translation. financial_rigor.py produced about $48 in the bullish case, $36 in the base case, and $23.40 in the bearish case before dividends. These are conditional scenario outputs, not price promises.
$45 to $51
More likely if wireless and cable KPIs improve, capital intensity stays near the reduced plan, free cash flow reaches or exceeds guidance, leverage falls, sports assets monetize well, and the market applies about 11x normalized earnings.
$33 to $39
More likely if service revenue and adjusted EBITDA grow within guidance, free cash flow improves, competition stays rational, debt reduction continues, and the market applies about 9x normalized earnings.
$21 to $26
More likely if churn or price pressure rises, capital demands or interest costs remain high, free cash flow misses guidance, sports and media spending fails to earn returns, or the market applies about 7x lower normalized earnings.
RCI AI technical analysis
RCI AI technical analysis was weak at the July 11, 2026 cutoff, using the latest verified July 7 NYSE close of $32.48. StockAnalysis listed a 50-day moving average of $36.36, a 200-day moving average of $37.02, RSI of 32.12, 20-day average volume of 1.02 million shares, and a 0.79 five-year beta. Refresh every level on a live chart before acting because this is a static snapshot.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $32.48 | NYSE close on July 7, 2026 used for the static market-cap and valuation calculations. |
| Near support | $31 to $32 | This band brackets the dated close and should be checked against a live chart before use. |
| Secondary support | $28 to $30 | This is a risk-management reference below the dated close, not a forecast or guaranteed floor. |
| Near resistance | $36 to $37 | This zone contains the dated 50-day average near $36.36 and 200-day average near $37.02. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $36.36, 200-day $37.02 | Price was below both averages at the cutoff, leaving the intermediate trend weak. |
| Momentum | RSI 32.12 | The dated RSI was weak but not itself a reliable buy signal. |
| Volume | 1.02 million shares | This was the dated 20-day average volume. A rebound needs current volume confirmation. |
| Volatility | 5-year beta 0.79 | Lower historical beta does not remove event risk around earnings, regulation, capital allocation, or competitive announcements. |
| Invalidation | Failure to hold $31 to $32 | A sustained live close below the dated support band weakens a rebound setup. Recheck the current chart before setting any stop. |
RCI AI trading strategy
The RCI AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for a leveraged telecom and media operator, not personal financial advice. Update it with live price and volume data, earnings releases, subscriber KPIs, free-cash-flow guidance, debt metrics, capital spending, and regulatory developments.
Wait for RCI to reclaim and hold the $36 to $37 moving-average zone on stronger live volume, with results showing stable wireless and cable KPIs, rising free cash flow, and continued debt reduction.
Treat a failed reclaim of the moving averages or a new close below the support band as a reason to reassess rather than averaging down mechanically.
If RCI remains near the $31 to $32 area, compare live valuation with normalized cash flow, debt, interest expense, capital intensity, dividend coverage, subscriber trends, and sports-media capital commitments.
Do not assume a weak RSI is a floor. Define position size and invalidation before entry, especially around earnings, regulatory news, and capital-allocation announcements.
Track wireless postpaid additions and churn, mobile ARPU, internet additions, service revenue, adjusted EBITDA, capital intensity, free cash flow, leverage, interest costs, MLSE monetization, and Canadian regulatory decisions.
Reduce confidence if free cash flow misses guidance, leverage rises, churn worsens, competition drives persistent price cuts, or asset investment needs exceed the return earned.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Rogers for mobile and fixed connectivity, cable internet, business services, media, and sports content. The recurring proposition is reliable access to communications networks and differentiated entertainment.
FY2025 revenue was C$21.712 billion, while StockAnalysis showed C$22.218 billion of revenue for the March 2026 trailing twelve months. Q1 2026 total revenue rose 10% to C$5.482 billion, and free cash flow rose 32% to C$776 million.
Rogers benefits from spectrum, wireless and cable infrastructure, distribution, brand, installed relationships, network scale, and premium sports-media rights. The moat is durable but not absolute because peers, regulation, and technology alternatives constrain pricing and returns.
The thesis fails if pricing competition or churn rises, capital spending remains high, financing costs increase, free cash flow misses guidance, regulation changes network economics, a major outage damages trust, or MLSE investment earns below its cost of capital.
The central management test is capital allocation. Investors need evidence that network, media, and MLSE investments earn more than their financing cost while leverage and capital intensity decline and per-share free cash flow improves.
Mobile data, fibre, cloud connectivity, IoT, and digital media can support demand. Counterweights are mature market penetration, capital intensity, spectrum costs, regulation, streaming competition, and lower-cost connectivity alternatives.
The dated $32.48 price equated to 9.50x trailing free cash flow and a 4.46% indicated dividend yield in the financial-rigor calculation. The 3.48x trailing PE should not be read as normalized because FY2025 included a C$4.976 billion MLSE revaluation gain. Margin of safety depends on recurring cash flow after capital spending and debt service.
The research stance is watchful rather than categorical. A stronger case needs free-cash-flow delivery, deleveraging, stable subscriber indicators, credible returns on MLSE, and a trend recovery. A weaker case is signalled by cash-flow shortfalls, more leverage, worsening churn, or returns below the cost of capital.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYSE price, market cap, shares, valuation, and technical snapshot | $32.48 July 7 close, $17.17 billion reported market cap, 540.23 million shares, 3.48x trailing PE, 9.50x P/FCF, 50-day $36.36, 200-day $37.02, RSI 32.12 | StockAnalysis, sourced from S&P Global Market Intelligence and Fiscal.ai | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue, earnings, cash, debt, and share count | C$21.712 billion revenue, C$6.906 billion net income, C$1.344 billion cash, C$35.872 billion long-term debt, and 540 million weighted-average basic shares | Rogers 2025 annual financial statements | March 6, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating update | C$5.482 billion total revenue, C$2.364 billion adjusted EBITDA, C$776 million free cash flow, 3.8x debt leverage, and C$4.1 billion to C$4.3 billion 2026 free-cash-flow guidance | Rogers Q1 2026 results release | April 22, 2026 |
| 2026 capital and free-cash-flow guidance | C$2.5 billion to C$2.7 billion capital expenditures and C$4.1 billion to C$4.3 billion free cash flow | Rogers full-year consolidated guidance | April 22, 2026 |
| Market-cap cross-check | $32.48 x 540.23 million shares = $17.55 billion, versus $17.17 billion reported market cap, a 2.19% timing difference | financial_rigor.py verify-market-cap using StockAnalysis inputs | July 11, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation. Forecast scenarios use available data and explicit assumptions and can be wrong. Verify current prices, filings, currency assumptions, and personal risk constraints before making any investment decision.
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