QXO, Inc. research snapshot
QXO AI stock analysis views QXO as Brad Jacobs's building-products distribution platform that closed the TopBuild acquisition on July 1, 2026. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, the July 31 reference close was $13.30 with a multi-source market-cap consensus near $13.80 billion on about 1.04 billion shares. Q1 2026 net sales were $1.73 billion with a GAAP net loss of $227.1 million and an adjusted diluted loss per share of $0.12. TTM revenue was about $8.56 billion and TTM net income was about a $632.1 million loss. The stock trades as a jockey-and-roll-up story where 91% of TopBuild shareholders chose cash, QXO issued roughly 312.5 million new shares and paid about $6.4 billion in cash, and FY2027 adjusted EPS consensus is about $0.74. This QXO AI stock analysis uses scenarios rather than a certain price prediction and is for informational purposes, not investment advice.
Current price
$13.30 reference close on July 31, 2026
Market cap
$13.80B consensus from StockAnalysis and Yahoo Finance using about 1.04B shares, verified by Pineify financial_rigor.py at $13.30 x 1.038B shares equals about $13.81B
AI score
55 / 100
Rating
High-ambition building-products roll-up that closed TopBuild on July 1, 2026, now facing large dilution, debt, and integration tests at a price near book value
Trend status
Short-term downtrend: the July 31 close of $13.30 sat below the reported 50-day average near $15.80 and 200-day average near $19.60, near the 52-week low of $13.18
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | QXO distributes roofing, waterproofing, insulation-related, and complementary building products to contractors through a branch network, and now adds TopBuild installation and insulation scale. Quality hinges on local service density, procurement scale, and inventory availability more than brand pricing power. | High |
| Moat | Moat is forming through branch density, contractor relationships, purchasing scale, and installation capabilities after Beacon, Kodiak, and TopBuild. It is not yet a deep technology or network moat, and competitors can still win branches and contractors on service and price. | Medium |
| Management | Chairman and CEO Brad Jacobs has a long record of industrial roll-ups. The central test is whether the July 1 TopBuild deal, funded with a heavy cash election and fresh debt, earns durable per-share free-cash-flow returns after dilution and integration costs. | Medium-high on operator skill; medium-low on current capital-structure outcomes |
| Financial trend | FY2025 net sales were $6.84B and adjusted diluted EPS was $0.34. Q1 2026 net sales were $1.73B with a $227.1M GAAP net loss and adjusted diluted loss per share of $0.12 amid deal and amortization costs. TTM revenue was about $8.56B and TTM net income was about a $632.1M loss. | High for reported figures |
| Valuation | At $13.30, multi-source market cap was about $13.80B. Trailing GAAP PE is not meaningful because of losses. PB was about 1.04x on book value near $12.81 per share, but tangible book was only about $1.94 per share because goodwill and intangibles dominate. Forward PE near 31x to 43x depending on adjusted EPS measure, and trailing FCF yield was under 1.5%. | Medium because of share-count and forward-EPS disagreement across databases |
| Technical trend | StockAnalysis reported a 50-day average near $15.80, a 200-day average near $19.60, and RSI near 37. The July 31 close was below both averages and near the 52-week low of $13.18, a weak short-term structure. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include integration failure after the TopBuild close, housing and commercial construction slowdowns, margin pressure, deal overpayment, heavy dilution that lifted the share base more than 116% in a year, preferred-equity terms, and a large jump in debt and net borrowing. | High |
| AI confidence | Reported sales, losses, adjusted EPS, TopBuild closing terms, and price data are well sourced. Forward synergy, per-share accretion, and post-integration earnings power are far less certain than the historical filings. | High data confidence for facts; medium-low for outcomes |
| Investment certainty | QXO is a conditional, operator-driven consolidation bet with a fresh record-size acquisition, not a high-certainty margin-of-safety compounder at the July reference price. | Low to medium-low |
QXO AI stock forecast
The QXO AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $13.30 July 31 reference and FY2027 consensus adjusted EPS of about $0.74 rather than GAAP losses. A three-scenario run with 35% / 15% / 0% three-year growth and 22x / 15x / 9x exit PE produced about $40, $17, and $7 before any dividends. A more conservative run on FY2026 adjusted EPS of $0.31 with 50% / 10% / -10% growth and 28x / 16x / 8x multiples produced about $29, $7, and $2. These are conditional valuation outcomes, not price targets. Analysts reported an average target near $30.27 with a low of $25 and high of $50, sitting above the bullish case only if integration and earnings growth hold.
$25 to $35
More likely if TopBuild integration is smooth, synergies and installation cross-sell expand margins, housing and reroofing demand stay resilient, adjusted EPS compounds toward consensus, and investors keep paying a growth multiple for the enlarged roll-up.
$13 to $18
More likely if revenue scales with the new asset base but margin recovery is gradual, dilution and interest expense offset part of the per-share gains, and the market values QXO near a low- to mid-teens earnings multiple on moderated growth.
$6 to $9
More likely if construction demand weakens, TopBuild integration disappoints, debt service and preferred dilution keep expanding, the share base grows again, or the market re-rates the stock toward single-digit multiples on stalled earnings.
QXO AI technical analysis
QXO AI technical analysis uses the July 31 to August 2, 2026 market snapshot, not live chart data. Sources showed a $13.30 July 31 close, a 52-week range of about $13.18 to $27.61, a 50-day moving average near $15.80, a 200-day moving average near $19.60, RSI near 37, and a 20-day average volume near 25 million shares. That combination points to a short-term downtrend and a test of the recent 52-week low area.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $13.30 | July 31, 2026 reference close used for valuation and market-cap checks, not a live quote. |
| Near resistance | $14.20 to $15.80 | This band covers the reclaim zone toward the reported 50-day average near $15.80. A sustained move above it would improve short-term trend confirmation. |
| Immediate support | $13.00 to $13.20 | Anchored by the 52-week low near $13.18 and the round-number area just below it. This is the key near-term floor. |
| Secondary resistance | $18 to $20 | Former mid-range supply and the reported 200-day average near $19.60. Reclaiming this zone would matter more for a durable trend repair. |
| Moving averages | 50-day about $15.80; 200-day about $19.60 | The July 31 price was below both averages, a weak intermediate structure. |
| Momentum | RSI about 37 | Soft and approaching oversold territory. Needs volume and fundamental confirmation. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 25 million shares | Breaks through $13.20 or $15.80 are more credible when volume is well above the recent average. |
| Volatility | Beta about 2.20; 52-week range $13.18 to $27.61 | Wide historical range and above-market beta imply large position swings around deal and earnings news. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $13.00 | A break under the 52-week low area would invalidate the near-term mean-reversion framework and call for a new fundamental review. |
QXO AI trading strategy
The QXO AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It combines post-TopBuild execution data, capital-structure dilution, housing demand, and technical invalidation levels.
Watch for QXO to reclaim and hold above the $14.20 to $15.80 area with volume above its 20-day reference, while the Q2 2026 report due August 12 shows integration progress, stable gross margins, and a clearer post-TopBuild capital structure.
A failed reclaim or sustained close back under $13.20 should reduce setup confidence. A break below $13.00 invalidates the near-term long framework.
If the shares test the $13.00 to $13.20 support band, compare the price reset with book value, tangible book, cash, debt-service needs, housing indicators, and next-earnings expectations before treating the dip as opportunity.
Do not treat a decline as benign if debt or preferred dilution keeps expanding, margins keep deteriorating, construction demand rolls over, or the Q2 report disappoints.
Track net sales, adjusted gross margin, adjusted EBITDA, GAAP versus adjusted EPS, free cash flow, cash and total debt, share count and preferred stock, TopBuild integration milestones and synergy updates, and housing start and reroofing indicators.
Position sizing should reflect that QXO is a high-volatility, M&A-driven distributor with record dilution and a large new debt load, not a stable dividend compounder.
Investment research summary
Customers pay QXO because local contractors need reliable access to roofing, waterproofing, insulation-related, and complementary building products with inventory depth, delivery, and credit support that one-off suppliers struggle to match at scale.
The emerging moat rests on branch density, contractor relationships, purchasing scale, logistics, and product and installation breadth after Beacon, Kodiak, and TopBuild. Technology-enabled pricing and procurement are management goals, not yet a proven multi-year barrier. The moat can narrow if competitors match service or if integration distracts branches.
The thesis fails if TopBuild was overpriced, integration destroys service quality, housing and repair demand falls, margins stay compressed under deal costs, dilution and debt service outrun earnings growth, leverage rises into a downturn, or key-person risk around Jacobs becomes central after a strategy shift.
Brad Jacobs is betting that the same consolidation playbook used in logistics and equipment rental can modernize a fragmented building-products distribution market. The July 1 TopBuild close, where 91% of sellers chose cash, makes the management test whether the record cash-and-stock consideration and new debt earn high returns after acquisition premiums and integration expense.
North American building-products distribution is large and fragmented, with demand tied to residential and commercial construction, reroofing, repair, and remodeling. Consolidation and digitization are real trends, but the cycle still moves with housing, interest rates, and contractor activity rather than with any new technology wave.
At about $13.80B market cap and sub-1.5% trailing free-cash-flow yield, the July reference price leaves a narrow margin of safety on current cash generation even though the stock trades near book value. The market is paying for future scale, synergies, and operator execution more than for present GAAP earnings power.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| QXO price, technical snapshot, share base, and market cap | $13.30 July 31 close, 1.04B shares, 50-day average about $15.80, 200-day average about $19.60, RSI about 37, market cap $13.80B, TTM revenue $8.56B, TTM net income about -$632.1M | StockAnalysis QXO statistics and overview | August 2, 2026 |
| Price and market-cap cross-check | Yahoo Finance showed a $13.40 close on July 29 with an intraday market cap near $13.91B; $13.30 x 1.038B shares equals about $13.81B, matching the $13.80B consensus with under 1% deviation in financial_rigor.py | Yahoo Finance QXO quote and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results and balance sheet | $1.73B net sales, $227.1M GAAP net loss, adjusted diluted loss per share $0.12, cash $3.046B, total long-term debt net $3.059B, total debt $3.903B, book value $10.165B | QXO Q1 2026 Form 10-Q filed May 12, 2026 | August 3, 2026 |
| TopBuild acquisition completion | Closed July 1, 2026; $505.00 cash or 20.200 QXO shares per TopBuild share; about 91% of TopBuild shares elected cash; about 312.5M QXO shares issued and about $6.4B cash paid; QXO incurred a $3.0B incremental term loan maturing 2033 and priced $1.5B 2031 and $1.5B 2034 senior notes | QXO Form 8-K filed July 1, 2026 and Business Wire releases | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 adjusted diluted EPS and net sales | FY2025 net sales $6.842B, GAAP diluted EPS $(0.63), adjusted diluted EPS $0.34; Kodiak closed April 1, 2026 for $2.25B | QXO Q4 2025 earnings materials and Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus, targets, and forward estimates | Strong Buy consensus from about 14 to 15 analysts, average target $30.27 with $25 low and $50 high; FY2026E revenue $14.17B and adjusted EPS $0.31; FY2027E revenue $19.38B and adjusted EPS $0.74; revenue growth forecast 3Y 51.69%, EPS growth forecast 3Y 50.50% | StockAnalysis forecast page (S&P Global and TipRanks data) | August 2, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data and assumptions, can be wrong, and may change without notice. Verify current prices, filings, share counts, deal status, and personal suitability before making any investment decision.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
