QXO, Inc. research snapshot
QXO AI stock analysis currently views QXO as Brad Jacobs's building-products distribution platform, rebuilt from a shell into a scaled roofing and complementary-products distributor after the April 2025 Beacon Roofing Supply deal. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, the July 10 reference close was $14.99 with a multi-source market-cap consensus near $15.56 billion. FY2025 net sales were $6.84 billion on a post-Beacon stub year, trailing twelve-month revenue was about $8.56 billion, and GAAP results remained loss-making while adjusted diluted EPS for FY2025 was $0.34. The stock trades as a jockey-and-roll-up story rather than a mature cash compounder, with Kodiak closed in April 2026 and a roughly $17 billion TopBuild deal still pending. This QXO AI stock analysis uses scenarios rather than a certain price prediction and is for informational purposes, not investment advice.
Current price
$14.99 reference close on July 10, 2026
Market cap
$15.56B consensus from Yahoo Finance, MarketWatch, and CompaniesMarketCap using about 1.04B shares; StockAnalysis reported $10.87B on 725.31M shares
AI score
56 / 100
Rating
High-ambition building-products roll-up led by a proven consolidator, with large dilution, integration, and housing-cycle risks
Trend status
Short-term downtrend: July 10 price sat below the reported 50-day and 200-day averages after a slide from the mid-$18s toward the low-$14s
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | QXO distributes roofing, waterproofing, insulation-related, and complementary building products to contractors through a branch network. Quality hinges on local service density, procurement scale, and inventory availability more than brand pricing power. | High |
| Moat | Moat is forming through branch density, contractor relationships, and purchasing scale after Beacon and Kodiak. It is not yet a deep technology or network moat, and competitors can still win branches and contractors on service and price. | Medium |
| Management | Chairman and CEO Brad Jacobs has a long record of industrial roll-ups. Capital allocation is the central test: whether large acquisitions and preferred equity create durable free-cash-flow returns after dilution and integration costs. | Medium-high on operator skill; medium on current capital-structure outcomes |
| Financial trend | FY2025 net sales were $6.84B after Beacon closed April 29, 2025. TTM revenue was about $8.56B, TTM GAAP net loss about $632M, and FY2025 adjusted diluted EPS was $0.34. Q1 2026 sales were $1.73B with a $227M GAAP net loss amid deal and amortization costs. | High for reported figures |
| Valuation | At $14.99, multi-source market cap was about $15.56B. Trailing GAAP PE is not meaningful because of losses. StockAnalysis showed about 1.17x book on its share base, forward PE near the mid-30s, and trailing FCF yield under 2%. Price embeds successful roll-up execution. | Medium because of share-count disagreement across databases |
| Technical trend | StockAnalysis reported a 50-day average near $17.07, a 200-day average near $19.99, and RSI near 39. The July 10 close was below both averages after a decline from the mid-$18 area, a soft short-term structure. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include housing and commercial construction slowdowns, margin pressure, deal overpayment, integration failure, heavy dilution, preferred-equity terms, rising leverage if TopBuild closes, and key-person dependence on Jacobs. | High |
| AI confidence | Reported sales, cash, adjusted EPS, and deal announcements are well sourced. Forward synergy and post-TopBuild earnings power are far less certain than the historical filings. | High data confidence for facts; medium-low for outcomes |
| Investment certainty | QXO is a conditional, operator-driven consolidation bet rather than a high-certainty margin-of-safety compounder at the July reference price. | Low to medium-low |
QXO AI stock forecast
The QXO AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $14.99 July 10 reference and FY2025 adjusted diluted EPS of $0.34, not GAAP losses. Exact three-scenario arithmetic with 40%/20%/5% three-year growth and 35x/25x/15x exit PE produced about $32.7, $14.7, and $5.9 before any dividends. These are conditional valuation outcomes, not price targets. Analysts reported mid-$30 average targets on some databases, which sit near the bullish case only if growth and multiple assumptions hold.
$28 to $35
More likely if TopBuild closes on acceptable terms, Beacon and Kodiak integrations expand margins, housing and reroofing demand stay resilient, adjusted EPS compounds rapidly, and investors still pay a growth multiple for the roll-up story.
$13 to $17
More likely if revenue scales with acquisitions but margin recovery is gradual, dilution offsets some per-share gains, and the market values QXO near a mid-20s earnings multiple on moderated growth.
$5 to $9
More likely if construction demand weakens, integration costs rise, major deals slip or destroy value, preferred and common dilution keeps expanding the share base, or the market re-rates the stock toward a mid-teens multiple on stalled earnings.
QXO AI technical analysis
QXO AI technical analysis uses the July 10 to July 11, 2026 market snapshot, not live chart data. Sources showed a $14.99 July 10 close, a 52-week range of about $13.82 to $27.61, a 50-day moving average near $17.07, a 200-day moving average near $19.99, RSI near 39, and elevated average daily volume in the mid-to-high tens of millions of shares. That combination points to a short-term downtrend and a test of the lower end of the recent range.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $14.99 | July 10, 2026 reference close used for valuation and market-cap checks, not a live quote. |
| Near resistance | $15.50 to $17.10 | This band covers the reclaim zone toward the reported 50-day average near $17.07. A sustained move above it would improve short-term trend confirmation. |
| Immediate support | $13.80 to $14.20 | Anchored by the recent 52-week low area near $13.82 and the early-July support battle around $14. |
| Secondary resistance | $18 to $20 | Former mid-range supply and the reported 200-day average near $19.99. Reclaiming this zone would matter more for a durable trend repair. |
| Moving averages | 50-day about $17.07; 200-day about $19.99 | The July 10 price was below both averages, a weak intermediate structure. |
| Momentum | RSI about 39 | Soft but not deeply oversold on its own. Needs volume and fundamental confirmation. |
| Volume | 20-day average roughly 20M to 28M shares depending on source | Breaks through $14 or $17 are more credible when volume is well above the recent average. |
| Volatility | Beta about 2.2 on StockAnalysis; 52-week range $13.82 to $27.61 | Wide historical range and above-market beta imply large position swings around deal news. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $13.80 | A break under the 52-week low area would invalidate the near-term mean-reversion framework and call for a new fundamental review. |
QXO AI trading strategy
The QXO AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It combines roll-up execution data, capital-structure dilution, housing demand, and technical invalidation levels.
Watch for QXO to reclaim and hold above the $15.50 to $17.10 area with volume above its 20-day reference, while company updates show integration progress, stable gross margins, and clearer post-deal capital structure.
A failed reclaim or sustained close back under $14.20 should reduce setup confidence. A break below $13.80 invalidates the near-term long framework.
If the shares test the $13.80 to $14.20 support band, compare the price reset with book value, cash, deal funding needs, housing indicators, and next-earnings expectations before treating the dip as opportunity.
Do not treat a decline as benign if TopBuild terms worsen, equity issuance accelerates, margins keep deteriorating, or construction demand rolls over.
Track net sales, adjusted gross margin, adjusted EBITDA, GAAP versus adjusted EPS, free cash flow, cash and total debt, share count and preferred stock, Beacon and Kodiak integration milestones, TopBuild closing status, and housing start and reroofing indicators.
Position sizing should reflect that QXO is a high-volatility, M&A-driven distributor with ongoing dilution risk, not a stable dividend compounder.
Investment research summary
Customers pay QXO because local contractors need reliable access to roofing, waterproofing, insulation-related, and complementary building products with inventory depth, delivery, and credit support that one-off suppliers struggle to match at scale.
The emerging moat rests on branch density, contractor relationships, purchasing scale, logistics, and product breadth after the Beacon and Kodiak deals. Technology-enabled pricing and procurement are management goals, not yet a proven multi-year barrier. The moat can narrow if competitors match service or if integration distracts branches.
The thesis fails if acquisitions are overpriced, integration destroys service quality, housing and repair demand falls, margins stay compressed under deal costs, preferred and common dilution outruns earnings growth, leverage rises into a downturn, or key-person risk around Jacobs becomes central after a strategy shift.
Brad Jacobs is betting that the same consolidation playbook used in logistics and equipment rental can modernize a fragmented building-products distribution market. The crucial management test is whether capital raised through equity, preferred stock, and debt earns high returns after acquisition premiums and integration expense.
North American building-products distribution is large and fragmented, with demand tied to residential and commercial construction, reroofing, repair, and remodeling. Industry estimates often cite hundreds of billions of dollars of annual revenue across North America and Europe. Consolidation and digitization are real trends, but the cycle still moves with housing, interest rates, and contractor activity.
At about $15.56B market cap and sub-2% trailing free-cash-flow yield, the July reference price leaves a narrow margin of safety on current cash generation. The market is paying for future scale, synergies, and operator execution more than for present GAAP earnings power.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| QXO price, technical snapshot, and StockAnalysis share base | $14.99 July 10 close, 725.31M shares on StockAnalysis, 50-day average about $17.07, 200-day average about $19.99, RSI about 39, TTM revenue $8.56B | StockAnalysis QXO statistics | July 11, 2026 |
| Market capitalization multi-source check | Yahoo Finance about $15.56B, MarketWatch about $15.56B, CompaniesMarketCap about $15.55B versus StockAnalysis $10.87B on a lower share count; $14.99 x 1.038B shares equals $15.56B | Yahoo Finance, MarketWatch, CompaniesMarketCap, StockAnalysis, and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 net sales, GAAP EPS, and adjusted diluted EPS | $6.842B net sales, GAAP diluted EPS $(0.63), adjusted diluted EPS $0.34 | QXO Q4 2025 earnings release / Exhibit 99.1 | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 sales, net loss, cash, and long-term debt | $1.73B net sales, about $227M GAAP net loss, about $3.05B cash, about $3.06B long-term debt; StockAnalysis total debt about $3.90B | QXO Q1 2026 materials summarized via SEC-linked coverage and StockAnalysis balance sheet | July 12, 2026 |
| Major M&A milestones | Beacon closed April 29, 2025 for about $10.6B to $11B; Kodiak closed April 1, 2026 for $2.25B; TopBuild deal announced about $17B, expected close third quarter 2026 subject to approvals | QXO investor releases and Q1 2026 earnings materials | July 12, 2026 |
| Trailing valuation arithmetic | GAAP PE not meaningful on TTM loss about $(0.90) to $(0.92); PB about 1.17x on StockAnalysis book inputs; P/FCF about 55x to 79x depending on share count; three-scenario math on $0.34 adjusted EPS gave about $32.7 / $14.7 / $5.9 | Pineify financial_rigor.py using company and StockAnalysis inputs | July 12, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data and assumptions, can be wrong, and may change without notice. Verify current prices, filings, share counts, deal status, and personal suitability before making any investment decision.
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