Impinj Inc. research snapshot
PI AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Impinj Inc. as an improving RAIN RFID growth story that is now much better financed and more profitable than at the prior cutoff, but still priced for a large amount of success. The stock traded at $159.48 on August 3, 2026 at 10:59 AM EDT, up 5.36% from the $151.36 close on July 31, carrying a market capitalization near $4.87 billion, reported by StockAnalysis.com and consistent with $159.48 times 30.55 million shares outstanding. The Q2 2026 report, released July 29, 2026, delivered record revenue of $108.4 million, up 46% sequentially and 11% year over year, record adjusted EBITDA of $30.7 million at a 28.3% margin, a record 60.9% gross margin, and the first GAAP-profitable quarter in recent history with GAAP net income of $12.2 million, while non-GAAP EPS of $0.86 beat the $0.80 consensus and Q3 guidance of $105.5 million to $108.5 million in revenue with EPS of $0.59 to $0.63 came in well above the $98.7 million and $0.50 consensus. The stock broke above its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages of roughly $140.57, $138.54, and $144.58, with 14-day RSI near 67.9 on Barchart and 66.4 on StockAnalysis.com. The page is informational only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$159.48 at the August 3, 2026, 10:59 AM EDT reading, up 5.36% from the $151.36 July 31 close, within a day range of $149.21 to $161.44
Market cap
$4.87 billion
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Improving growth story at a premium valuation
Trend status
Bullish post-earnings breakout above the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages after record Q2 2026 results
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Impinj sells RAIN RFID endpoint ICs, reader ICs, readers, gateways, and platform software that connect physical items to the internet for retail apparel, general merchandise, supply chain and logistics, food, healthcare, and industrial use cases. TTM revenue is about $371.53 million. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from 20+ years of RAIN RFID IP, first-mover status with EPC Gen2 and Gen2X standards, an integrated chip-reader-software platform that creates switching costs, the acquired Intel RFID reader chip technology, and entrenched relationships with inlay and label partners. | Medium |
| Management | Co-founder and CEO Chris Diorio provides deep technical leadership and continuity, while CFO Cary Baker has been repairing channel inventory visibility after two years of Q1 misssteps. Insider ownership is about 3.19% of shares. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue improved from $190.28 million in FY2021 to $371.53 million on a TTM basis. Q2 2026 revenue of $108.4 million was a record, gross margin hit a record 60.9%, adjusted EBITDA reached a record $30.7 million, GAAP net income turned positive at $12.2 million, and Q3 guidance implies continued sequential growth, though TTM net income is still negative at about -$26.99 million. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At roughly 65x forward earnings, about 12.45x trailing sales, 73x trailing free cash flow, and about 538x EV/EBITDA, the stock embeds aggressive growth expectations. A small improvement or miss in earnings can drive disproportionate price swings. | Low |
| Technical trend | PI traded at $159.48 on August 3, 2026, up 5.36% from the $151.36 July 31 close, above its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages of roughly $140.57, $138.54, and $144.58, after a 22.66% five-day surge. The 52-week range is $87.36 to $247.06. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Key risks are customer and channel concentration, channel inventory timing, tariff resets, competition from NXP and Alien Technology, share dilution, high leverage, stock volatility (beta 1.92), short interest near 11% of shares outstanding, and an extreme valuation multiple. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for the business and technology map, market cap math, Q2 2026 results, and balance sheet figures that cross-checked across StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR XBRL, the earnings release, and the earnings call. Lower for future returns given the premium valuation and early-stage profitability. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low certainty. Impinj addresses a real and growing market and just delivered its best quarter in years, but the stock requires continued execution on bookings, margins, and food adoption to justify its current price. | Low |
PI AI stock forecast
The PI AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $159.48 August 3, 2026 reading and the FY2026 non-GAAP EPS consensus of $2.09. The three-scenario framework produced a bearish area near $45 to $70, a base area near $125 to $150, and a bullish area near $210 to $240 over three years, using non-GAAP EPS growth of 5%, 20%, and 35% and exit multiples of 15x to 20x, 30x to 35x, and 40x to 45x. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
$210 to $240
More likely if Impinj sustains record Endpoint IC bookings, the custom ASIC ramp completes on schedule, food adoption at major grocers accelerates, gross margin keeps rising, and the market holds a 40x to 45x exit multiple on faster-growing EPS.
$125 to $150
More likely if revenue grows in the high single digits to low double digits, GAAP profitability becomes more consistent, channel inventory rebuilds cleanly, and the forward multiple compresses toward 30x to 35x as the market prices in a steadier but less explosive adoption curve.
$45 to $70
More likely if retail apparel and general merchandise demand fades, channel inventory timing repeats the 2025 and 2026 Q1 pattern, competition from NXP or Alien Technology erodes share, margins fail to hold, or the market compresses the multiple toward 15x to 20x.
PI AI technical analysis
PI AI technical analysis is bullish as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The stock traded at $159.48 at 10:59 AM EDT, up 5.36% from the $151.36 July 31 close, above its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages of roughly $140.57, $138.54, and $144.58, after surging 22.66% over the five trading days since the July 29 Q2 report. The 14-day RSI near 67.9 on Barchart and 66.4 on StockAnalysis.com is approaching overbought but not extreme, and 14-day historic volatility near 56% reflects the post-earnings move. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $159.48 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the August 3, 2026, 10:59 AM EDT reading, up 5.36% from the $151.36 July 31 close, with a day range of $149.21 to $161.44. |
| 5-day moving average | $146.20 | Barchart reported the 5-day moving average near $146.20 on August 3, 2026, below the current price after the 22.66% five-day post-earnings surge. |
| Near support | $144 to $146 | The 200-day moving average near $144.58 and the 5-day moving average near $146.20 form the first pullback support zone, matching StockAnalysis.com at $144.57. |
| Next support | $138 to $141 | Barchart placed the 50-day moving average near $138.54 and the 20-day near $140.57 on August 3, 2026, forming a support cluster that StockAnalysis.com confirmed at $138.49. |
| Near resistance | $161 to $162 | The August 3 intraday high of $161.44 is the immediate overhead level, with the 52-week high of $247.06 far above. |
| Primary resistance | $176 to $200 | The analyst price target zone runs from the $176 average target to the $200 high target, with Jefferies at $190 and Cantor at $200 after the Q2 report. |
| 200-day moving average | $144.58 | Barchart reported the 200-day trend line near $144.58 on August 3, 2026, now below the current price, matching StockAnalysis.com at $144.57. |
| Momentum | RSI near 68, ADX near 15.5 | The 14-day RSI was near 67.9 on Barchart and 66.4 on StockAnalysis.com, strong but not overbought. The 14-day ADX near 15.5 with +DI near 33.6 and -DI near 16.5 shows upward directional pressure after the surge. |
| Volume | About 383,000 average shares | Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 386,357 shares and StockAnalysis.com near 382,476 on August 3, 2026, useful for checking whether a breakout above $161.44 is confirmed. |
| Volatility | ATR near $9.15, historical vol near 56% | Barchart reported 14-day ATR near $9.15, or about 5.72% of price, and 14-day historic volatility near 56.34%, so position sizing must allow for large swings around earnings and guidance. |
| Invalidation | Close below $144 | A decisive close below the 200-day moving average near $144.58 would weaken the post-earnings breakout, and a close below the 50-day near $138 would turn the intermediate trend bearish. |
PI AI trading strategy
The PI AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for trading and watching a high-growth RAIN RFID story. It is not personal advice and should be paired with fresh chart data, filings, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch for PI to hold above the 200-day moving average near $144.58 and to confirm a break above the August 3 intraday high of $161.44 on rising volume, with the 5-day average near $146.20 as a short-term pivot.
A daily close back below the 200-day near $144.58 or a failed attempt at $161.44 with heavy volume should trigger a stop and review. PI carries high beta and 56% historical volatility, so position size must be small.
If PI pulls back toward the $138 to $146 support cluster without a thesis break, monitor for stabilization and compare with Q3 results (late October 2026), food adoption announcements, and channel inventory commentary before acting.
Do not average down solely because the stock is off its highs. Define a maximum loss based on the $138 secondary support, because short interest near 11% of shares outstanding can amplify downside moves.
Track Q3 2026 guidance execution, Endpoint IC bookings, gross margin progression, GAAP vs non-GAAP profitability, free cash flow, channel inventory rebuild, the custom ASIC ramp, tariff resets, and food program announcements.
Lower confidence if revenue growth decelerates meaningfully, channel inventory repeats the Q1 pattern, or margins fail to hold while the stock still trades at a premium multiple.
Investment research summary
Impinj sells RAIN RFID chips, reader ICs, readers, gateways, and platform software that connect physical items to the internet, enabling real-time inventory visibility for retail apparel, general merchandise, supply chain and logistics, food, healthcare, and industrial customers.
The moat relies on 20+ years of RAIN RFID IP, first-mover status with EPC Gen2 and Gen2X standards, an integrated chip-reader-software platform that creates switching costs, the acquired Intel RFID reader chip technology, and entrenched relationships with inlay and label partners.
The thesis can fail if channel inventory timing repeats the 2025 and 2026 Q1 pattern, retail demand fades after tariff pull-ins, NXP or Alien Technology capture share, GAAP profitability proves inconsistent, share dilution continues, or the premium multiple contracts sharply.
Co-founder CEO Chris Diorio brings deep technical credibility and continuity. CFO Cary Baker has been transparent about repairing channel inventory visibility after two Q1 misssteps. Insider ownership is about 3.19% of shares outstanding.
RAIN RFID adoption is accelerating across retail apparel, general merchandise, supply chain and logistics, and food, where three of the five largest U.S. grocers have announced pilots or deployments. The industry is in an early growth phase, but adoption cycles can be lumpy.
At roughly 65x forward earnings, about 12.45x trailing sales, and about 73x trailing free cash flow, the stock prices in years of successful execution. The margin of safety is thin. A fair entry likely requires either a lower price or clearer evidence of sustained GAAP profitability.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| PI price | $159.48 at the August 3, 2026, 10:59 AM EDT reading, up 5.36% from the $151.36 July 31 close, with a day range of $149.21 to $161.44 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $4.87 billion, reported by StockAnalysis.com and verified as $159.48 x 30.55 million shares via financial_rigor.py (0.04% deviation) | StockAnalysis.com quote and financial_rigor.py verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue | $108.4 million, a record, up 46% sequentially from $74.3 million in Q1 2026 and up 11% year over year from $97.9 million in Q2 2025 | Impinj Q2 2026 earnings call and SEC EDGAR XBRL | July 29, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 Endpoint IC revenue | $96.4 million, a record, up 53% sequentially from $63.2 million and up 14% year over year from $84.6 million | Impinj Q2 2026 earnings call | July 29, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 systems revenue | $12.0 million, up 8% sequentially from $11.0 million and down 10% year over year from $13.3 million | Impinj Q2 2026 earnings call | July 29, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 profitability | Record gross margin of 60.9%, record adjusted EBITDA of $30.7 million at a 28.3% margin, GAAP net income of $12.2 million, and record non-GAAP net income of $27 million, or $0.86 per diluted share, above the $0.80 consensus | Impinj Q2 2026 earnings call and earnings release | July 29, 2026 |
| Q3 2026 guidance | Revenue of $105.5 million to $108.5 million, adjusted EBITDA of $20.7 million to $22.2 million, and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $0.59 to $0.63, above the $98.7 million and $0.50 consensus | Impinj Q2 2026 earnings call | July 29, 2026 |
| Endpoint IC bookings | Endpoint IC bookings hit an all-time high for the second consecutive quarter, driven by retail apparel, general merchandise, and supply chain and logistics, with the custom ASIC ramp at the second-largest North American supply chain and logistics customer ahead of schedule | Impinj Q2 2026 earnings call | July 29, 2026 |
| Food opportunity | Three of the five largest U.S. grocers have announced pilots or deployments across bakery, deli, or meats, supporting store replenishment, in-store inventory, loss identification, and automated self-checkout programs | Impinj Q2 2026 earnings call | July 29, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $371.53 million over the trailing twelve months ended June 30, 2026, up about 3.5% year over year, matching StockAnalysis.com financials | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM net income and EPS | TTM net income of -$26.99 million and EPS of -$0.90, as reported by StockAnalysis.com statistics; Q2 2026 GAAP net income was positive at $12.2 million | StockAnalysis.com statistics and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 3, 2026 |
| Revenue history | FY2021 $190.28M, FY2022 $257.8M, FY2023 $307.54M, FY2024 $366.09M, FY2025 $361.08M, matching StockAnalysis.com financials | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and short-term investments | $133.02 million as of June 30, 2026, composed of $38.57 million cash and equivalents and $94.44 million short-term investments, matching SEC EDGAR XBRL | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash plus investments | $263.7 million including long-term investments, compared with $235.2 million in Q1 2026, per the Q2 2026 earnings call | Impinj Q2 2026 earnings call | July 29, 2026 |
| Total debt | $266.65 million as of June 30, 2026, with $57.02 million current and $184.92 million long-term, matching SEC EDGAR XBRL, and net cash of -$133.64 million | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 3, 2026 |
| Inventory | $91.5 million as of June 30, 2026, up $5.2 million sequentially, matching SEC EDGAR XBRL | Impinj Q2 2026 earnings call and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 3, 2026 |
| Shareholders equity and book value | Shareholders equity of $231.59 million and book value per share of about $7.58 as of June 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 30.55 million shares outstanding, up 5.29% year over year and 2.35% quarter over quarter, with a float of 29.57 million | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Trailing free cash flow | Operating cash flow of $71.61 million, capital expenditures of -$8.62 million, and free cash flow of $62.99 million over the TTM, with Q2 2026 free cash flow of $29.2 million | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement and Q2 2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation check | Forward PE 65.37, PS ratio 12.45, PB ratio 19.97, P/FCF 73.42, P/OCF 64.58, EV/Sales 12.81, EV/EBITDA 538.40, FCF yield 1.36% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $176.00 across 8 analysts, low $144 and high $200, median $175.50 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | July 30, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 4 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, 2 Hold, 0 Sell out of 8 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | July 30, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Jefferies raised to $190 from $175 and Cantor held $200 on July 30, Needham lowered to $168 from $175, Susquehanna held $175, Roth MKM held $180, and Evercore ISI held $144, with Evercore holding the lowest target | StockAnalysis.com forecast and news feed | July 30, 2026 |
| Short interest | 3.35 million shares short, about 10.97% of shares outstanding and 11.33% of float, about 9.17 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range and performance | 52-week range $87.36 to $247.06, up about 2.79% over the trailing 52 weeks, beta 1.92 | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA near $146.20, 20-day SMA near $140.57, 50-day SMA near $138.54, 200-day SMA near $144.58, 14-day RSI near 67.9, 14-day ADX near 15.5, 14-day ATR near $9.15, 14-day historic volatility near 56.34% | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
| Financial forecast | FY2026 revenue estimate of $389.62 million, up 7.91% from $361.08 million, with non-GAAP EPS of $2.09; FY2027 revenue of $468.79 million, up 20.32%, with non-GAAP EPS of $2.81, up 34.52% | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | July 30, 2026 |
This PI AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots, and third-party data as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, legal developments, market moves, or macro conditions.
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