Progyny Inc. research snapshot
PGNY AI stock analysis currently reads Progyny Inc. as a niche leader in fertility and family-building benefits management with strong client retention, a large addressable market, growing free cash flow, minimal debt, and an improving 2026 outlook after record first quarter results. The analysis is scenario-based, not a certain price prediction. At the August 4, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified close was $31.53 on August 3, 2026, market capitalization was about $2.47 billion using about 78.33 million shares, the trailing P/E was near 41x, and the 12-month analyst consensus price target was about $34.00. The main question is whether the stock, after rising about 40% over the past 52 weeks, can re-rate given roughly 6% reported revenue growth and a rich earnings multiple. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$31.53 (Aug 3 close)
Market cap
$2.47 billion
AI score
66 / 100
Rating
Quality niche leader with strong retention, improving 2026 momentum, and a premium valuation
Trend status
Uptrend above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, near the 52-week high zone
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Progyny sells fertility, family-building, and women's health benefits management to US employers through its Smart Cycle bundled model, a selective clinical network, and concierge member support. Clients pay recurring fees and renew because the program lowers cost per baby and improves outcomes. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from employer switching costs, proprietary benefit design, clinic network relationships, outcomes data, and first-mover brand recognition in the fertility benefits niche. Rivals such as Carrot Fertility and Maven Clinic are growing but remain smaller. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Pete Anevski and CFO Mark Livingston delivered record Q1 results, raised full-year guidance, de-risked the 2026 renewal season, completed a $200M buyback, and are evaluating a new repurchase program. A conservative guidance philosophy has produced consistent beats. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue is about $1.29 billion and TTM net income is about $67.7 million. Q1 2026 revenue rose 1.4% reported and more than 12% excluding a former client, and management raised full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $1.98-$2.09. | High |
| Valuation | Tool-checked valuation near 41x TTM earnings, 1.91x sales, 13.4x free cash flow, and 5.57x book value. The forward P/E near 15x is much lower but assumes the guided adjusted earnings growth arrives. | Medium |
| Technical trend | PGNY closed near $31.53, above the 50-day ($28.55) and 200-day ($23.40) moving averages and about 5% below its 52-week high of $33.07. RSI near 60 with a strong ADX confirms an uptrend that is not yet overbought. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Key risks are employer benefit budget cycles, competition, customer concentration, decelerating reported growth through mid-2026, an AI-related labor-market narrative, and a rich trailing valuation. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High confidence for descriptive research and source-backed numbers. Medium confidence for forward outcomes because employer adoption timing, utilization, and competitive dynamics are uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The business is high quality with a clean balance sheet and strong retention, but the stock price already reflects an improving outlook, so the margin of safety is limited at about 41x trailing earnings. | Medium |
PGNY AI stock forecast
The PGNY AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $31.53 cutoff price and the 2026 GAAP diluted EPS midpoint of about $1.28. financial_rigor.py produced a bullish three-year value near $58, a base case near $38, and a bearish case near $25. These are scenario outputs, not promised targets. The 11-analyst consensus price target was about $34.00 with a Strong Buy rating as of the cutoff.
$48 to $58
More likely if Progyny keeps winning Fortune 500 clients, the Cigna channel and Progyny Select distribution ramp, utilization stays at the high end of guidance, a new buyback is announced, and the market assigns a high-teens to 30x forward multiple to resumed double-digit ex-comparison growth.
$32 to $40
More likely if reported revenue grows in the mid-to-high single digits, adjusted EPS lands near the $1.98-$2.09 guided range, retention stays strong, and the stock trades in a low-20x to mid-20x forward earnings band.
$18 to $26
More likely if employer benefit budgets tighten, competition from Carrot and Maven accelerates, utilization falls below the 1.04%-1.05% assumption, the AI labor-market narrative reduces eligible lives, or the multiple contracts toward the high teens.
PGNY AI technical analysis
PGNY AI technical analysis starts from the $31.53 close used for this August 4 static page. Barchart showed the 5-day SMA near $31.26, the 20-day SMA near $31.44, the 50-day SMA near $28.55, and the 200-day SMA near $23.40. Price is above every major average in an uptrend that has not yet reached overbought levels, with a 14-day RSI near 59.8. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $31.53 | Google Finance and StockAnalysis showed the August 3, 2026 close used for this page. After-hours trading held near $31.53. |
| Near support | $29.50 to $30.00 | The area just below the recent consolidation and near the round $30 level. |
| Key support | $28.55 | The 50-day moving average is the first important trend reference. A close below it would signal the short-term trend is weakening. |
| Secondary support | $23.40 to $23.70 | The 200-day moving average near $23.40 and the 100-day near $23.70 form the long-term support band. |
| Near resistance | $33.00 to $33.07 | The 52-week high zone. A breakout above this level would confirm trend continuation toward the analyst target zone. |
| 50-day moving average | About $28.55 | Barchart and StockAnalysis both reported the 50-day simple moving average near this level around the cutoff. |
| 200-day moving average | About $23.40 | The 200-day moving average was well below the current price, confirming the long-term uptrend. |
| Momentum | RSI 14 near 59.80 | Barchart showed 14-day relative strength near 59.8 and a 14-day stochastic near 46 to 48, suggesting momentum is positive but not overbought. |
| Volume | About 901,000 shares on Aug 3 | Slightly below the 20-day average near 1.08 million shares. A breakout above $33.07 should be confirmed by above-average volume. |
| Volatility | ATR 14 near $0.97 | About 3.1% of price per day, with 14-day historic volatility near 25%. Moderate daily swings should be reflected in position sizing. |
| Invalidation | Close below $28.55 | A close below the 50-day moving average weakens the setup. A break below $23.40 would challenge the long-term uptrend. |
PGNY AI trading strategy
The PGNY AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It combines filing-backed business evidence, technical confirmation, valuation discipline, position sizing, and clear invalidation levels. The stock is in a confirmed uptrend, so long setups are the primary framework, with pullback entries preferred over chasing price near resistance.
Look for PGNY to hold above the 50-day moving average near $28.55 and to break above the $33.07 52-week high with expanding volume before treating the trend as confirmed. Entry near support offers a better risk/reward than chasing price at resistance.
A failed breakout or daily close below $28.55 should reduce confidence in the setup. Use the 200-day area near $23.40 as the long-term invalidation reference.
If PGNY pulls back toward $29.50 to $30.00 without a thesis break, compare price stabilization with the August 6 earnings report, utilization trends, client wins, and buyback announcements before re-engaging.
Do not average down solely because the business model is defensible. Define maximum loss, confirm the trailing multiple still fits your framework, and avoid building a position ahead of an earnings report you cannot absorb.
Track the Q2 2026 report on August 6, 2026, revenue growth excluding the former client, utilization (guided 1.04%-1.05% for the year), client adds and renewals, Cigna channel and Progyny Select progress, the new share repurchase program decision, and competitive announcements from Carrot Fertility and Maven Clinic.
Lower the rating if reported revenue growth stalls below guidance, if utilization falls well below the assumption, or if the stock keeps a rich trailing multiple while growth disappoints.
Investment research summary
Progyny helps US employers manage fertility and family-building benefits through a bundled Smart Cycle model, a curated clinical network, and concierge member support, generating recurring per-member fees. Clients pay because the program lowers cost per baby, improves outcomes, and supports talent retention.
The moat is employer switching costs, proprietary benefit design, clinic network relationships, outcomes data, and first-mover brand recognition in the fertility benefits niche. Rivals are growing, so the moat is real but narrower than in fully protected categories.
The thesis fails if employer benefit budgets tighten, clients bring benefits in-house or self-insure around Progyny, well-funded competitors win share, reported growth stalls after the former-client comparison fades, utilization drops, or the premium multiple compresses.
CEO Pete Anevski and CFO Mark Livingston delivered record Q1 results, raised full-year guidance, de-risked the 2026 renewal season, completed a $200M buyback, and are evaluating a new repurchase program. The conservative guidance philosophy has consistently produced beats.
Fertility and family-building benefits are a growing employer priority as more women defer parenthood past 30, with women 30 and over now about 53% of US births. The US fertility services market continues to expand, supporting long-term demand.
At about 41x trailing earnings and 1.91x trailing sales, the price leaves limited room for execution missteps. The forward multiple near 15x depends on guided growth arriving, so a margin of safety would improve at lower prices or with clearer re-acceleration evidence.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| PGNY price | $31.53 close on August 3, 2026 | Google Finance and StockAnalysis snapshots | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | About $2.47 billion, verified as $31.53 x 78.33 million shares | StockAnalysis share count and financial_rigor.py | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | About 78.33 million, down about 4.1% year over year from buybacks | StockAnalysis statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | About $1.29 billion | StockAnalysis and Google Finance, cross-checked | August 4, 2026 |
| FY 2025 revenue and net income | $1.29 billion revenue, up 10.4%, and $58.52 million net income | StockAnalysis financials | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM net income and EPS | About $67.69 million net income and $0.76 EPS | StockAnalysis statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results and guidance | Revenue $328.5 million, adjusted EPS $0.50, raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $1.98-$2.09 | Q1 2026 earnings call transcript and TheFly | August 4, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $225.11 million cash and $27.28 million total debt at the TTM period; net cash about $197.83 million | StockAnalysis statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Free cash flow (TTM) | About $184.42 million | StockAnalysis cash flow snapshot | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation checks | 41.49x TTM EPS, 5.57x book value, 13.42x TTM FCF per share, 7.45% FCF yield, 1.91x sales | financial_rigor.py valuation verification and StockAnalysis | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy from 11 analysts, average price target $34.00, range about $27 to $40 | StockAnalysis forecast and Google Finance analyst ratings | August 4, 2026 |
| Share repurchase program | Completed the $200 million program in Q1 2026; board evaluating a new program | Q1 2026 earnings call transcript | August 4, 2026 |
| Short interest | 4.63 million shares, about 5.91% of shares outstanding, 3.33 days to cover | StockAnalysis statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical levels | 5-day SMA $31.26, 20-day SMA $31.44, 50-day SMA $28.55, 200-day SMA $23.40, RSI 14 about 59.80 | Barchart technical analysis snapshots | August 4, 2026 |
This PGNY AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a personalized recommendation to buy, sell, or hold Progyny Inc. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of August 4, 2026, and may be wrong if filings, market prices, business conditions, utilization rates, employer adoption, competition, regulation, or investor expectations change.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
