Patrick Industries, Inc. research snapshot
PATK AI stock analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff reads Patrick Industries as a diversified component manufacturer for RV, marine, powersports, manufactured housing, and industrial OEMs, now in the middle of a pending all-stock merger with LCI Industries (Lippert). The stock closed at $83.56 on August 3, 2026, up 1.01 or 1.22% from the $82.55 close on July 31, carrying a market capitalization near $2.77 billion, matching the $83.56 price times 33.16 million shares outstanding. Q2 2026 net sales of $1.04 billion were essentially flat year over year as marine up 22% and powersports up 28% offset an RV decline of 15%, adjusted EPS of $1.29 beat the $1.24 consensus, and 2026 guidance points to operating cash flow of $320 million to $350 million with free cash flow near $250 million. The stock trades near its 52-week low of $81.29 and below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages near $87.28 and $105.67, with short interest near 10.82% of shares outstanding, so the technical picture is weak even as the merger proposes $150 million of annual run-rate synergies and combined adjusted EBITDA near $1 billion. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$83.56 at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT market close, up 1.01 or 1.22% from the $82.55 July 31 close, after opening at $83.79 and trading in a session range of $82.89 to $86.10 on the real-time quote
Market cap
$2.77 billion reported by StockAnalysis.com at the August 3, 2026 market close, matching the $83.56 price times 33.16 million shares outstanding, verified with a 0.03% deviation
AI score
50 / 100
Rating
Fair business with cyclical, leverage, and merger integration risk
Trend status
Near the 52-week low of $81.29, below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages near $87.28 and $105.67, in a cyclical and merger-driven downtrend
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Patrick Industries makes and distributes component products for RV, marine, powersports, manufactured housing, and industrial markets. Q2 2026 net sales of $1.04 billion were essentially flat year over year with 7% organic growth, and TTM revenue is $3.94 billion with a net margin near 3.7%. The business is essential to OEM assembly but operates on thin margins in cyclical end markets. | Medium |
| Moat | The moat is limited. Scale in distribution, long-standing OEM relationships, and brands such as Rockford Fosgate and Sportech create moderate switching costs, but most products are commoditized and barriers to entry are low. | Low |
| Management | CEO Andy Nemeth has led Patrick through an acquisition-driven diversification strategy. Q2 2026 beat consensus with adjusted EPS of $1.29, the company repurchased about 980,000 shares for $91 million in the quarter, and the all-stock merger with LCI Industries is the defining capital allocation decision, with Nemeth set to run the combined company. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue recovered from a $3.47 billion trough in 2023 to $3.95 billion in 2025 and $3.94 billion TTM. Net income fell to $135 million in 2025 and recovered to $147 million TTM, but first-half 2026 operating cash flow dropped to $69 million from $189 million on inventory build, and TTM free cash flow fell to $128 million from $246 million in 2025. | Medium |
| Valuation | At about 19.9x trailing earnings, 19.5x forward earnings on the FY2026 consensus of $4.29, 10.1x EV/EBITDA, and 0.70x sales, the stock trades below its 200-day average and near the low end of recent multiples, with a 2.25% dividend yield and a 43% payout ratio. The multiple is only attractive if merger synergies and a cycle recovery materialize. | Medium |
| Technical trend | PATK closed at $83.56 on August 3, 2026, near its 52-week low of $81.29 and below the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages near $84.92, $85.21, $87.28, and $105.67, with RSI near 43.74. The chart remains weak after the June 30 merger announcement and the July 30 earnings reaction. | Medium |
| Risk level | Elevated. RV demand fell 15% in Q2 with a 16% drop in wholesale unit shipments, net leverage is 3.0x with about $1.4 billion of debt and no major maturities until 2028, short interest is near 10.82% of shares outstanding, the merger could be delayed or denied, and imports face tariff and anti-dumping exposure on plywood. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and cross-checked math that matched across StockAnalysis.com, Macrotrends, SEC EDGAR XBRL, the Q2 2026 earnings release, and the earnings call transcript. Lower for forward return estimates because RV demand, deal approvals, and synergy realization are uncertain. | Medium |
| Investment certainty | Low. The page provides a research framework and scenario ranges, not a buy or sell instruction. Cyclical timing and merger execution risk are beyond reliable prediction. | Low |
PATK AI stock forecast
The PATK AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $83.56 August 3, 2026 market close and the FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS of $4.29. The three-scenario framework produced a bearish area near $40 to $60, a base area near $75 to $95, and a bullish area near $100 to $125 over three years, using adjusted EPS growth of -5%, 8%, and 15% and exit multiples of 11x, 15x, and 18x, with model reference values of about $40, $81, and $117. These are scenarios, not price commitments, and the pending LCI merger changes the value equation if it closes.
$100 to $125
More likely if RV demand stabilizes and recovers, marine and powersports keep growing, the LCI merger closes in the first half of 2027 with $150 million of annual run-rate cost synergies, and the combined platform delivers the pro forma adjusted EBITDA near $1 billion and free cash flow of $508 million.
$75 to $95
More likely if end markets stay mixed with RV wholesale near 285,000 to 300,000 units in 2026, the merger closes with typical integration friction, and PATK executes standalone guidance of $320 million to $350 million operating cash flow while the market holds a mid-teens forward multiple.
$40 to $60
More likely if RV and marine demand fall further, the merger is delayed, challenged, or terminated, leverage stays near 3.0x or higher, margins compress from the affordability programs, or working capital keeps consuming cash as it did in the first half of 2026.
PATK AI technical analysis
PATK AI technical analysis is weak as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $83.56 on August 3, 2026, up 1.01 or 1.22% from the $82.55 July 31 close, near the 52-week low of $81.29 set on July 14, 2026. It sits below the 5-day moving average near $84.92, the 20-day near $85.21, the 50-day near $87.28, and the 200-day near $105.67. The 5-day and 20-day averages were computed from the StockAnalysis.com daily closing price history, while the 50-day and 200-day values come from the StockAnalysis.com statistics page. RSI near 43.74 reflects weak but not deeply oversold momentum, and the 52-week high of $148.50 is far overhead.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $83.56 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT market close, up 1.01 or 1.22% from the $82.55 July 31 close after opening at $83.79 and trading in a session range of $82.89 to $86.10. |
| Near support | $81.29 | The 52-week low set on July 14, 2026. A decisive break below this level would signal further downside. |
| Next support | $82 to $83 | The August 3 session low near $82.89 and the prior July 31 close of $82.55 form minor near-term support just above the 52-week low. |
| Near resistance | $87 to $88 | The 50-day moving average near $87.28 and the post-earnings trading band. A close above this zone would improve short-term momentum. |
| 5-day moving average | $84.92 | Computed as the simple average of the five closing prices through August 3, 2026 in the StockAnalysis.com daily price history, just above the current price. |
| 20-day moving average | $85.21 | Computed as the simple average of the twenty closing prices through August 3, 2026 in the StockAnalysis.com daily price history, a resistance reference for rallies. |
| 50-day moving average | $87.28 | StockAnalysis.com statistics reported the 50-day moving average near $87.28 on August 3, 2026, above the current price and confirming the medium-term downtrend. |
| 200-day moving average | $105.67 | StockAnalysis.com statistics reported the 200-day trend line near $105.67 on August 3, 2026, well above the current price and confirming the longer-term downtrend. |
| Momentum | RSI near 43.7 | The 14-day RSI was near 43.74 on StockAnalysis.com statistics on August 3, 2026, weak but not deeply oversold. |
| Volume | About 626,000 average shares | StockAnalysis.com statistics listed 20-day average volume near 626,000 shares on August 3, 2026, with the July 30 earnings session showing about 970,000 shares traded. |
| Volatility | Market-like volatility | Beta near 1.09 on StockAnalysis.com statistics, so position sizing should account for earnings, tariff, and merger-related swings. |
| Invalidation | Close below $81.29 | A decisive close below the 52-week low support would weaken the setup further; a close above $87.28 would be the first bullish signal. |
PATK AI trading strategy
The PATK AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with position sizing, stop levels, and fresh filings, RV shipment data, and merger news checks.
Wait for PATK to reclaim and hold the $87 to $88 zone on a move back above the 50-day moving average near $87.28, ideally with volume confirming a demand recovery or merger progress.
A close back below the 52-week low near $81.29 should invalidate the setup. Monitor RV wholesale shipments, marine and powersports content trends, and merger regulatory filings.
If PATK approaches the $81.29 support zone without a thesis break, compare valuation multiples with historical trough levels and check whether the stock holds above the August 3 session low near $82.89 before acting.
Do not average down without a predefined maximum loss, because the pending merger and 3.0x net leverage can turn a support zone into a value trap.
Track the evidence that matters most: RV and marine wholesale and retail shipments, content per unit, the LCI merger timeline and approvals, $150 million of synergy execution, debt and leverage trends, and the cash conversion from working capital in the back half of 2026.
Reduce confidence if the merger is delayed or challenged, if cash flow stays weak, or if leverage rises while end markets keep declining.
Investment research summary
Patrick Industries makes and distributes component and building products for RV, marine, powersports, manufactured housing, and industrial OEMs. Customers pay for cabinets, countertops, flooring, adhesives, trim, audio, and electrical solutions that go into finished vehicles, boats, and homes.
The moat is limited. Scale in distribution and long-standing OEM relationships create moderate switching costs, and brands like Rockford Fosgate and Sportech add some pricing power, but most products are commoditized with low barriers to entry and no proprietary technology advantage.
The thesis can fail if RV and marine end markets enter a deeper downturn, the LCI merger is delayed, challenged, or terminated, the $150 million of synergies prove harder to capture than planned, net leverage of 3.0x triggers covenant stress, or first-half working capital use continues.
CEO Andy Nemeth built PATK through disciplined M&A and diversification. Q2 2026 beat consensus, the company bought back about 980,000 shares for $91 million in the quarter, and the LCI merger, with Nemeth to run the combined company, is the defining capital allocation test of this management team.
RV, marine, manufactured housing, and powersports are cyclical consumer discretionary markets tied to interest rates, fuel prices, and affordability. The long-term outdoor recreation participation trend supports the industry, but near-term wholesale and retail demand remain weak, and the pending merger would add aftermarket exposure estimated at 16% of combined revenue with a target of 20% to 25%.
PATK trades at about 19.9x trailing earnings, 10.1x EV/EBITDA, and 0.70x sales, near the low end of its recent range and below its 200-day moving average. The thin net margin near 3.7% and net leverage of 3.0x leave little room for error, so the margin of safety is conditional on a cycle recovery and merger execution.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| PATK price | $83.56 at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT market close, up 1.01 or 1.22% from the $82.55 July 31 close, after opening at $83.79 and trading in a session range of $82.89 to $86.10 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote and daily price history | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | Near $2.77 billion, reported by StockAnalysis.com at the August 3 market close and matching the $83.56 price times 33.16 million shares outstanding, with a market cap verification deviation of 0.03% using financial_rigor.py | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $3.94 billion over the trailing twelve months ended June 28, 2026, up 3.2%, matching StockAnalysis.com financials and Macrotrends | StockAnalysis.com financials and Macrotrends | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $3.95 billion, up 6.33% from $3.72 billion, cross-checked across StockAnalysis.com and Macrotrends | StockAnalysis.com financials and Macrotrends | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $147.28 million, up 16.8%, with EPS of $4.20 on the statistics page and $4.22 on the financials page | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financials | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 net sales | $1.04 billion, off less than 1% year over year, with estimated organic growth of 7%, acquisition growth of 1%, and industry decline of 9% | Patrick Industries Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 segment revenue | RV $407 million down 15%, Marine $191 million up 22%, Powersports $123 million up 28%, and Housing $320 million up 2%, with RV wholesale unit shipments down 16% | Patrick Industries Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted results | Adjusted EPS of $1.29 versus $1.50 a year ago and the $1.24 consensus, adjusted EBITDA of $126 million at a 12.1% margin, and net income of $43 million up 34% | Patrick Industries Q2 2026 earnings release | August 4, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance | Operating cash flow of $320 million to $350 million, capex of $70 million to $80 million, free cash flow near $250 million, adjusted operating margin flat versus 2025, and an effective tax rate of 24% to 25% | Patrick Industries Q2 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| First-half 2026 cash flow | Cash from operations of $69 million versus $189 million a year ago, reflecting working capital investment for the composite products growth strategy, and TTM free cash flow of $128 million versus $262 million | Patrick Industries Q2 2026 earnings release | August 4, 2026 |
| Merger announcement | All-stock merger with LCI Industries announced June 30, 2026, with each LCI share exchanged for 1.2440 Patrick shares, Patrick shareholders owning about 52% of the combined company, and closing targeted in the first half of 2027 | Patrick Industries and LCI Industries M&A announcement call | August 4, 2026 |
| Pro forma merger profile | Combined revenue of about $8.1 billion, adjusted EBITDA near $1 billion at a 12.6% margin, free cash flow of $508 million, net leverage of 2.1x, and $150 million of annual run-rate cost synergies, accretive in year one | Patrick Industries and LCI Industries M&A announcement call | August 4, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | Cash and equivalents of $29.16 million, total debt near $1.4 billion per the Q2 2026 release with about $1.42 billion of current and long-term debt on the balance sheet, net debt near $1.62 billion, and a net leverage ratio of 3.0x with no major maturities until 2028 | Patrick Industries Q2 2026 earnings release and StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 33.16 million shares outstanding per StockAnalysis.com statistics, with the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q cover listing 33,091,193 shares as of March 29, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation check | About 19.9x trailing EPS, 19.5x forward EPS on the FY2026 consensus of $4.29, 2.33x book value, 21.7x free cash flow, and a 2.25% dividend yield | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $109.20 across 10 analysts, low $85 and high $135, median $113.50, with post-Q2 moves including Roth to $114, BMO to $120, Raymond James to $94, Baird to $96, and BofA at $85 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and ratings | August 4, 2026 |
| Short interest | 3.59 million shares short, 10.82% of shares outstanding and 11.30% of float, 3.99 days to cover, up from 2.31 million shares the prior month | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day moving average near $84.92 and 20-day near $85.21 computed from StockAnalysis.com daily price history, 50-day near $87.28 and 200-day near $105.67 on StockAnalysis.com statistics, 14-day RSI near 43.74, 20-day average volume near 626,000 shares, and beta near 1.09 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and daily price history | August 4, 2026 |
| Dividend | Annual dividend of $1.88 per share with a 2.25% yield, payout ratio near 43%, ex-dividend date May 26, 2026, and 7 years of dividend growth | StockAnalysis.com dividend history | August 4, 2026 |
| 2026 and 2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate of $3.87 billion with adjusted EPS of $4.29, and FY2027 revenue of $4.11 billion with adjusted EPS of $5.43 | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week range and performance | 52-week range of $81.29 to $148.50, down 14.77% over the trailing 52 weeks, beta 1.09 | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics | August 4, 2026 |
This PATK AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of August 4, 2026, may be incomplete, and can be wrong if RV demand, interest rates, merger approvals, integration results, tariffs, or working capital trends change. Verify prices and filings before making any decision.
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