Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, S.A.B. de C.V. research snapshot
PAC AI stock analysis currently views Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (GAP) as a regulated airport-concession operator of 12 Mexican Pacific airports plus Jamaican airports in Montego Bay and Kingston. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, the NYSE ADR closed at $235.64 on July 9, with 50.53 million ADR-equivalent shares (505.28 million Series B shares at 10 shares per ADR) and a mechanically verified $11.91 billion market capitalization. FY2025 total revenue was about Ps. 41.41 billion and net income about Ps. 10.00 billion, up 12.7 percent year over year, while total passengers rose 2.5 percent to 63.69 million. The PAC AI stock forecast remains scenario-based because passenger traffic, maximum tariffs, FX translation, capital spending under the Master Development Program, Jamaica tourism recovery, and valuation multiples can change returns. This page is informational research only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$235.64
Market cap
$11.91 billion
AI score
64 / 100
Rating
Quality Mexican Pacific airport concession group with tariff and commercial leverage, balanced against traffic, FX, regulation, Jamaica recovery, and valuation risk
Trend status
Negative intermediate trend below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with oversold RSI near 30
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | GAP earns regulated aeronautical charges and commercial non-aeronautical revenues at hubs and tourist airports, including Guadalajara, Tijuana, Los Cabos, and Puerto Vallarta, plus Jamaican operations. | High |
| Moat | The moat rests on long-term airport concessions, scarce runway and terminal capacity, local monopoly economics at many airports, and commercial real-estate and retail leverage inside the terminals. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Raúl Revuelta Musalem oversees tariff implementation, Master Development Program capex, commercial expansion, and Jamaica recovery. Capital allocation must balance dividends, debt, and capacity investment. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 aeronautical revenue rose 19.4 percent and non-aeronautical revenue rose 26.5 percent. EBITDA rose 17.8 percent to about Ps. 21.33 billion, while net income rose 12.7 percent to about Ps. 10.00 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $235.64 and about $11.30 trailing EPS, financial_rigor.py calculated 20.85x PE and about a 3.7 percent indicated dividend yield. PB and FCF yield depend on equity and capex definitions and leave a thinner margin of safety than a deep-value setup. | High |
| Technical trend | At the cutoff, PAC was below its 50-day average of about $243.48 and 200-day average of about $246.55. RSI near 29.7 was oversold after a pullback from the $300.41 52-week high. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because of passenger-traffic sensitivity, tariff and concession regulation, MXN and USD FX translation, Jamaica tourism and weather shocks, elevated capex, leverage, and Mexico operating or security headlines. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Reported results and arithmetic have high data confidence. Forward scenarios and technical setups have medium confidence because traffic, FX, rates, and sentiment can change quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | PAC is not an automatic buy. The thesis requires durable traffic, tariff realization, controlled costs and capex, Jamaica recovery, and a price that compensates for regulation, currency, and multiple risk. | Medium |
PAC AI stock forecast
The PAC AI stock forecast uses the July 9, 2026 closing price of $235.64, trailing EPS of about $11.30, and a three-year scenario calculation audited with financial_rigor.py. The mechanical values are about $140, $249, and $381 per share. These are sensitivity cases, not promises or analyst targets.
$370 to $390
More likely if EPS compounds near 12 percent for three years, Mexico traffic and tariffs remain supportive, non-aeronautical and cargo businesses scale, Jamaica recovers, capex stays productive, and investors pay about 24x earnings.
$240 to $260
More likely if EPS grows near 7 percent, passenger traffic tracks management guidance of roughly 2 to 5 percent for 2026, tariffs and commercial revenue grow mid-to-high single digits, and the market values PAC near 18x earnings.
$130 to $150
More likely if EPS grows near 1 percent, traffic softens further, FX or regulation hurts peso results, Jamaica tourism stays weak, debt service or capex rises, or the multiple falls toward 12x earnings.
PAC AI technical analysis
PAC AI technical analysis was weak-to-oversold as of the July 12, 2026 cutoff. Yahoo Finance chart data showed a July 9 close of $235.64, a 50-day moving average near $243.48, a 200-day moving average near $246.55, RSI near 29.7, and 20-day average volume of about 106,000 ADRs. Refresh all levels before trading.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $235.64 | NYSE close on July 9, 2026, used for the stated market-cap and valuation reference. |
| Immediate resistance | $243 to $247 | This area brackets the 50-day and 200-day moving averages and is the first intermediate-trend reclaim zone. |
| Near support | $220 to $225 | A round-number and recent pullback zone between the current price and the 52-week low region. |
| Deeper support | $206 to $210 | This area brackets the reported 52-week low of $206.91 and would signal a larger change in trend confidence if broken. |
| Near resistance | $280 to $300 | This range approaches the reported 52-week high of $300.41 and needs live volume confirmation before it is treated as a breakout. |
| Moving averages | 50-day about $243.48, 200-day about $246.55 | Price was below both trend references at the cutoff, consistent with a negative intermediate trend. |
| Momentum | RSI about 29.7 | Momentum was oversold and can bounce without confirming a durable trend change until moving averages are reclaimed. |
| Volume | 20-day average about 106,000 ADRs | Use this as a liquidity baseline when judging a reclaim of $243 to $247 or a break toward $206 to $210. |
| Volatility | Watch July 20 earnings and monthly passenger reports | Results, traffic prints, FX, Jamaica tourism, Mexico security headlines, and tariff commentary can change the setup quickly. |
| Invalidation | Failure to reclaim $243 to $247, then a close below $206 | Staying below the moving-average band keeps the intermediate trend weak. A sustained break near the 52-week low challenges the larger base. |
PAC AI trading strategy
The PAC AI trading strategy below is a research framework, not personal advice. It combines price behavior with passenger traffic, aeronautical and non-aeronautical revenue, EBITDA margins excluding IFRIC-12 construction accounting, FX, capex, dividends, Jamaica recovery, and Mexico operating headlines.
Watch whether PAC reclaims and holds the $243 to $247 moving-average zone with volume while monthly traffic stabilizes, tariffs convert into cash revenue, and Jamaica operations recover.
A failed reclaim followed by a close back below $235, especially with weaker traffic or FX, should reduce trend confidence.
If PAC tests $220 to $225 or $206 to $210 without deterioration in tariffs, liquidity, or the concession outlook, compare the updated price with trailing EPS, dividend capacity, and FX-adjusted cash flow.
Do not assume a lower price is value if traffic, Jamaica tourism, regulation, or debt service conditions are also deteriorating.
Track total passengers, aeronautical revenue per passenger, non-aeronautical growth, EBITDA margin excluding IFRIC-12, cash and debt, Master Development Program capex, dividends, CBX transaction progress, and Mexico or Jamaica policy and weather events.
Position sizing should reflect that PAC is a regulated, capital-intensive emerging-market concession ADR whose USD return can differ from local peso operating performance.
Investment research summary
Airlines and travelers pay GAP for the right to use scarce airport infrastructure. Aeronautical charges cover passenger and aircraft services, while non-aeronautical revenue comes from retail, food and beverage, parking, cargo, lounges, and other commercial activities inside and around the terminals.
GAP benefits from long-dated concessions, local airport scarcity, regulatory maximum tariffs for multi-year periods, commercial real estate inside terminals, and network exposure to Mexican domestic travel, US cross-border demand via Tijuana and CBX, and leisure tourism corridors.
The thesis can fail if passenger traffic declines, regulators cut tariff growth, FX translation compresses USD ADR results, Jamaica tourism remains impaired, capex overruns or under-earns, leverage rises, security or political shocks disrupt key airports, or a premium multiple contracts.
Management must allocate capital across capacity projects, commercial expansion, Jamaica recovery, dividends, and debt while preserving service quality and regulatory relationships. Key-person risk is whether operating and capital discipline remains consistent beyond any one executive.
Mexico and Caribbean air travel sit in a long-run mobility and tourism growth story, but they remain cyclical and sensitive to incomes, airfare capacity, weather, security, and policy. Airport operators with concession rights and commercial mix can compound, yet they are not free of traffic or regulation risk.
The audited three-scenario model produced about $140 in the bear case, $249 in the base case, and $381 in the bull case. At $235.64 and roughly 21x trailing earnings, the price requires continued delivery on traffic, tariffs, and cash generation and does not remove regulation, FX, or multiple-compression risk.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| PAC price, shares, and market capitalization | $235.64 July 9 close, 50.53 million ADR-equivalent shares from 505.28 million Series B shares at 10 shares per ADR, and $11.91 billion verified market capitalization. The price times shares calculation differed from the stated market cap by 0.03 percent. | Nasdaq PAC quote, GAP 4Q25 release share count, CompaniesMarketCap, and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | About Ps. 41.41 billion total revenue, including about Ps. 22.82 billion aeronautical, Ps. 9.70 billion non-aeronautical, and Ps. 8.88 billion IFRIC-12 improvements to concession assets. Converted near $2.16 billion at about 19.23 average MXN per USD, matching Macrotrends within 0.2 percent. | GAP 4Q25 and FY2025 earnings release and Macrotrends revenue | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income and EBITDA | Net income about Ps. 10.00 billion, up 12.7 percent year over year. EBITDA about Ps. 21.33 billion, up 17.8 percent. USD net income near $0.52 billion at average FX, matching Macrotrends within 0.2 percent. | GAP 4Q25 and FY2025 earnings release and Macrotrends net income | July 12, 2026 |
| Passengers and cash position | FY2025 total terminal passengers 63.69 million, up 2.5 percent. Cash and cash equivalents about Ps. 10.45 billion at year-end 2025. June 2026 preliminary traffic fell 5.1 percent year over year per company update. | GAP FY2025 release and June 2026 passenger traffic update | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation snapshot | Exact arithmetic gives 20.85x trailing PE on about $11.30 EPS, roughly 2.6 percent FCF yield on FY2025 OCF less capex converted to USD, and about a 3.7 percent indicated dividend yield on an $8.82 forward annual dividend rate from aggregation-site data. | Yahoo Finance key statistics, GAP cash-flow exhibit, and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | July 9 close $235.64, 50-day average about $243.48, 200-day average about $246.55, RSI about 29.7, 20-day average volume about 106,000 ADRs, 52-week range $206.91 to $300.41. | Yahoo Finance PAC daily chart series | July 12, 2026 |
| Share-count and market-cap source limitation | Some aggregation sites report implied share counts near 51.9 million to 59.5 million ADRs and market caps from about $12 billion to $14 billion. This page anchors on company-reported 505,277,464 Series B shares and the 10-for-1 ADR ratio, which cross-validates with CompaniesMarketCap at 50.53 million ADRs. | GAP earnings release footnote and CompaniesMarketCap shares outstanding | July 12, 2026 |
This PAC AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available filings, market data, and assumptions as of the stated cutoff date and may be wrong.
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