Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, S.A.B. de C.V. research snapshot
PAC AI stock analysis currently views Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (GAP) as a regulated airport-concession operator of 12 Mexican Pacific airports plus the CBX border-crossing business and two Jamaican airports. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, the NYSE ADR closed at $217.35 on July 31, with 595.02 million total shares (519.23 million Series B plus 75.79 million Series BB shares after the CBX merger) and a mechanically verified $12.93 billion market capitalization. 2Q26 total revenue was about Ps. 11.29 billion, up 3.7 percent year over year, while EBITDA rose 8.4 percent to about Ps. 5.97 billion with a 69.3 percent margin excluding IFRIC-12, and net income rose 9.0 percent to about Ps. 2.89 billion. Total passengers fell 5.6 percent in 2Q26 and 5.1 percent in June 2026, and CBX was consolidated from May 1, 2026 after GAP took 100 percent ownership. The PAC AI stock forecast remains scenario-based because traffic, tariffs, FX translation, capital spending under the Master Development Program, CBX integration, Jamaica recovery, and valuation multiples can change returns. This page is informational research only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$217.35
Market cap
$12.93 billion
AI score
60 / 100
Rating
Durable Mexican Pacific airport concession group with rising commercial and CBX revenue, balanced against negative traffic momentum, peso translation, regulation, and a valuation that still asks for delivery
Trend status
Negative intermediate trend below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with RSI near 35 approaching oversold
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | GAP earns regulated aeronautical charges and commercial non-aeronautical revenues at hubs and tourist airports, including Guadalajara, Tijuana, Los Cabos, and Puerto Vallarta, plus CBX border-crossing fees and Jamaican operations. | High |
| Moat | The moat rests on long-term airport concessions, scarce runway and terminal capacity, local monopoly economics at many airports, commercial real-estate and retail leverage inside terminals, and now the CBX cross-border franchise that links Tijuana with San Diego. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Raúl Revuelta Musalem oversees tariff implementation, Master Development Program capex, commercial expansion, the May 1, 2026 CBX consolidation, and Jamaica recovery. Capital allocation must balance dividends, debt, and capacity investment while integrating a large acquisition. | Medium |
| Financial trend | 2Q26 total revenue rose 3.7 percent to about Ps. 11.29 billion, EBITDA rose 8.4 percent to about Ps. 5.97 billion, and net income rose 9.0 percent to about Ps. 2.89 billion. Non-aeronautical revenue rose 23.9 percent, helped by CBX from May, while aeronautical revenue fell 3.2 percent on lower traffic and peso appreciation. | High |
| Valuation | At $217.35 and about $10.56 trailing EPS per ADR, financial_rigor.py calculated 20.58x PE, roughly 2.1 percent FCF yield, and a Yahoo forward dividend rate near $8.82 that implies about 4.1 percent yield. PB near 4.1x and EV/EBITDA near 6.5x on stockanalysis.com leave a thinner margin of safety than a deep-value setup. | High |
| Technical trend | At the cutoff, PAC was below its 50-day average of about $235.57 and 200-day average of about $245.40. RSI near 34.7 was weak after a slide from the $300.41 52-week high, with the price only about 5 percent above the $206.91 52-week low. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because of negative passenger-traffic momentum, tariff and concession regulation, MXN and USD FX translation, Jamaica tourism and weather shocks, large CBX goodwill and debt, elevated capex, leverage, and Mexico operating or security headlines. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Reported 2Q26 and 6M26 results, the CBX share count, and arithmetic have high data confidence. Forward scenarios and technical setups have medium confidence because traffic, FX, rates, CBX integration, and sentiment can change quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | PAC is not an automatic buy. The thesis requires traffic stabilization, tariff realization, controlled costs and capex, a smooth CBX and FIBRA outcome, Jamaica recovery, and a price that compensates for regulation, currency, and multiple risk. | Medium |
PAC AI stock forecast
The PAC AI stock forecast uses the July 31, 2026 closing price of $217.35, trailing EPS of about $10.56 per ADR, and a three-year scenario calculation audited with financial_rigor.py. The mechanical values are about $131, $233, and $356 per share. These are sensitivity cases, not promises or analyst targets.
$345 to $365
More likely if EPS compounds near 12 percent for three years, traffic stabilizes and rebounds, tariffs convert into cash revenue, CBX and non-aeronautical businesses scale, Jamaica recovers, and investors pay about 24x earnings.
$225 to $240
More likely if EPS grows near 7 percent, passenger traffic tracks the 2026 guidance of roughly 7 to 10 percent total-revenue growth, CBX adds incrementally, tariffs and commercial revenue grow mid-to-high single digits, and the market values PAC near 18x earnings.
$125 to $140
More likely if EPS grows near 1 percent, traffic keeps falling, FX or regulation hurts peso results, CBX integration under-delivers, Jamaica tourism stays weak, debt service or capex rises, or the multiple falls toward 12x earnings.
PAC AI technical analysis
PAC AI technical analysis was weak-to-oversold as of the August 3, 2026 cutoff. stockanalysis.com data showed a July 31 close of $217.35, a 50-day moving average near $235.57, a 200-day moving average near $245.40, RSI near 34.7, and 20-day average volume of about 155,000 ADRs. Refresh all levels before trading.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $217.35 | NYSE close on July 31, 2026, used for the stated market-cap and valuation reference. |
| Immediate resistance | $236 to $246 | This area brackets the 50-day and 200-day moving averages and is the first intermediate-trend reclaim zone. |
| Near support | $210 to $217 | A recent congestion zone between the current price and the 52-week low region. |
| Deeper support | $206 to $210 | This area brackets the reported 52-week low of $206.91 and would signal a larger change in trend confidence if broken. |
| Near resistance | $265 to $270 | This area approaches the average analyst price target and needs live volume confirmation before it is treated as a breakout. |
| Moving averages | 50-day about $235.57, 200-day about $245.40 | Price was below both trend references at the cutoff, consistent with a negative intermediate trend. |
| Momentum | RSI about 34.7 | Momentum was weak and approaching oversold and can bounce without confirming a durable trend change until moving averages are reclaimed. |
| Volume | 20-day average about 155,000 ADRs | Use this as a liquidity baseline when judging a reclaim of $236 to $246 or a break toward $206 to $210. |
| Volatility | Watch monthly passenger reports and 3Q26 results | Traffic prints, FX, CBX and FIBRA execution, Jamaica tourism, Mexico security headlines, and tariff commentary can change the setup quickly. |
| Invalidation | Failure to reclaim $236 to $246, then a close below $206 | Staying below the moving-average band keeps the intermediate trend weak. A sustained break near the 52-week low challenges the larger base. |
PAC AI trading strategy
The PAC AI trading strategy below is a research framework, not personal advice. It combines price behavior with passenger traffic, aeronautical and non-aeronautical revenue, EBITDA margins excluding IFRIC-12 construction accounting, CBX traffic and revenue, FX, capex, dividends, Jamaica recovery, and Mexico operating headlines.
Watch whether PAC reclaims and holds the $236 to $246 moving-average zone with volume while monthly traffic stabilizes, CBX and non-aeronautical revenue keep growing, and Jamaica operations recover.
A failed reclaim followed by a close back below $217, especially with weaker traffic or FX, should reduce trend confidence.
If PAC tests $210 to $217 or $206 to $210 without deterioration in tariffs, liquidity, CBX execution, or the concession outlook, compare the updated price with trailing EPS, dividend capacity, and FX-adjusted cash flow.
Do not assume a lower price is value if traffic, Jamaica tourism, regulation, CBX integration, or debt service conditions are also deteriorating.
Track total passengers, aeronautical revenue per passenger, non-aeronautical growth, EBITDA margin excluding IFRIC-12, cash and debt, Master Development Program capex, CBX traffic and revenue, the FIBRA process, dividends, and Mexico or Jamaica policy and weather events.
Position sizing should reflect that PAC is a regulated, capital-intensive emerging-market concession ADR whose USD return can differ from local peso operating performance.
Investment research summary
Airlines and travelers pay GAP for the right to use scarce airport infrastructure. Aeronautical charges cover passenger and aircraft services, while non-aeronautical revenue comes from retail, food and beverage, parking, cargo, lounges, CBX border crossings, and other commercial activities inside and around the terminals.
GAP benefits from long-dated concessions, local airport scarcity, regulatory maximum tariffs for multi-year periods, commercial real estate inside terminals, network exposure to Mexican domestic travel, US cross-border demand via Tijuana and CBX, and leisure tourism corridors, with CBX now adding a durable cross-border traffic source.
The thesis can fail if passenger traffic keeps declining, regulators cut tariff growth, FX translation compresses USD ADR results, CBX integration or the FIBRA process under-delivers, Jamaica tourism remains impaired, capex overruns or under-earns, leverage and goodwill expand, security or political shocks disrupt key airports, or a premium multiple contracts.
Management must allocate capital across capacity projects, commercial expansion, CBX integration, Jamaica recovery, dividends, and debt while preserving service quality and regulatory relationships. Key-person and integration risk is whether operating and capital discipline remains consistent through the CBX and FIBRA workstreams.
Mexico and Caribbean air travel sit in a long-run mobility and tourism growth story, but they remain cyclical and sensitive to incomes, airfare capacity, weather, security, and policy. Airport operators with concession rights and commercial mix can compound, yet they are not free of traffic or regulation risk, as the 2026 traffic declines show.
The audited three-scenario model produced about $131 in the bear case, $233 in the base case, and $356 in the bull case. At $217.35 and roughly 21x trailing earnings, the price requires continued delivery on traffic stabilization, CBX execution, tariffs, and cash generation and does not remove regulation, FX, or multiple-compression risk.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| PAC price, shares, and market capitalization | $217.35 July 31 close, 595.02 million total shares (519.23 million Series B plus 75.79 million Series BB after the CBX merger, at 10 shares per ADR), and $12.93 billion verified market capitalization. The price times shares calculation matched the reported market cap within 0.02 percent. | stockanalysis.com PAC quote, GAP 2Q26 release share count, and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| 2Q26 revenue | About Ps. 11.29 billion total revenue, including Ps. 5.58 billion aeronautical, Ps. 3.03 billion non-aeronautical, and Ps. 2.68 billion IFRIC-12 improvements. Total revenue rose 3.7 percent year over year and non-aeronautical revenue rose 23.9 percent. | GAP 2Q26 earnings release, July 13, 2026 | August 3, 2026 |
| 2Q26 net income and EBITDA | Net income about Ps. 2.89 billion, up 9.0 percent. EBITDA about Ps. 5.97 billion, up 8.4 percent, with EBITDA margin excluding IFRIC-12 of 69.3 percent versus 67.1 percent a year earlier. 6M26 net income rose 12.6 percent to about Ps. 6.21 billion. | GAP 2Q26 earnings release, July 13, 2026 | August 3, 2026 |
| Passengers, CBX, and cash position | 2Q26 total passengers fell 5.6 percent to about 15.0 million, and June 2026 traffic fell 5.1 percent. CBX generated about Ps. 468 million from May to June 2026 and is consolidated at 100 percent. Cash and cash equivalents were about Ps. 19.77 billion at June 30, 2026. | GAP 2Q26 release and June 2026 passenger traffic update | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation snapshot | Exact arithmetic gives 20.58x trailing PE on about $10.56 EPS per ADR, roughly 2.1 percent FCF yield on a $4.48 per-ADR FCF estimate, and a Yahoo forward dividend rate near $8.82 that implies about 4.1 percent yield. stockanalysis.com reports PB near 4.1x and EV/EBITDA near 6.5x. | Yahoo Finance key statistics, stockanalysis.com statistics, and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | July 31 close $217.35, 50-day average about $235.57, 200-day average about $245.40, RSI about 34.7, 20-day average volume about 155,000 ADRs, 52-week range $206.91 to $300.41, beta 0.24, and 52-week price change about -5.2 percent. | stockanalysis.com PAC statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| CBX merger and share-count source note | GAP issued 89.74 million new net shares for the CBX business combination effective May 1, 2026, reaching 595.02 million shares and 100 percent ownership of CBX. Some aggregation sites still show pre-merger share counts near 50.5 million ADR-equivalent shares; this page anchors on the company-reported 595.02 million shares, which cross-validates with stockanalysis.com. | GAP 2Q26 earnings release and stockanalysis.com share count | August 3, 2026 |
This PAC AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available filings, market data, and assumptions as of the stated cutoff date and may be wrong.
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