Bullish case
$60 to $76
More likely if Nutanix beats its Q4 FY2026 and FY2027 guidance, sustains EPS growth above 25% for several years, and keeps a premium software multiple.
Nutanix, Inc. research snapshot
NTNX AI Stock Analysis
NTNX AI stock analysis views Nutanix as a profitable hybrid multicloud software platform that keeps growing and generating strong free cash flow, but trades at a demanding valuation. At the July 31, 2026 close, the reference price was $59.01, market capitalization was about $15.95 billion, and the stock sat above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages after a roughly 16% one-month rebound. The core question is whether Nutanix can grow earnings fast enough to support a trailing PE near 62. This page is informational and not investment advice.
Current price
$59.01
Market cap
$15.95 billion
AI score
67 / 100
Rating
Strong business, demanding valuation
Trend status
Uptrend above moving averages, but down about 23% over 52 weeks
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- A-level. Nutanix has public filings, active analyst coverage, and liquid quote data across multiple sources.
- bias Check
- The main risks are market consensus anchoring and the AI and hybrid cloud narrative. The analysis separates quote and filing facts from forward-looking assumptions.
- ai Confidence
- High data confidence for prices, market cap, and reported financials; lower for forward earnings and long-term multiples.
- investment Certainty
- Medium-low. The page offers a research framework, not personalized advice, and the valuation leaves a thin margin of safety.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Nutanix runs an enterprise cloud platform that combines virtualization, storage, networking, and Kubernetes management for hybrid multicloud deployments. TTM revenue was $2.75 billion and net income was $275.86 million. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Switching costs, an integrated software stack, and subscription renewals create a moderate moat, but Nutanix competes with VMware, Microsoft Azure, AWS, and Google Cloud. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Rajiv Ramaswami led the shift to subscriptions and to profitability. Buybacks ran about $696 million over TTM, but share count still rose, so dilution from stock compensation remains a watch item. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue grew about 13% over TTM with a gross margin near 87%, an operating margin of about 9%, and free cash flow of $770.88 million. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | Trailing PE near 62, forward PE near 28, and PEG near 2.57 leave a thin margin of safety at the July 31, 2026 price. | Medium-low |
| Technical trend | Price is above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages with RSI near 68, but the stock is still down about 23% over 52 weeks. | Medium |
| Risk level | High due to competition, negative stockholders equity, short interest near 10% of float, supply chain constraints, and customer concentration. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High data confidence for quote and financial data; lower for forward multiples and long-term growth. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low because the page is an informational framework and the valuation is demanding. | Medium-low |
NTNX AI stock forecast
NTNX AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The NTNX AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $59.01 close instead of a point target. The model starts from trailing GAAP EPS of $0.96 and combines 3-year EPS growth with terminal PE assumptions, with the base case aligned to the consensus EPS growth forecast of about 16%. The analyst 12-month target range is $47 to $65 with a $58.98 average.
Base case
$34 to $43
More likely if Nutanix meets consensus, EPS grows near the roughly 16% consensus rate, and the trailing PE compresses toward the forward range as growth normalizes.
Bearish case
$18 to $25
More likely if enterprise IT spending slows, VMware and public cloud competition takes share, margins stall, or supply chain constraints keep delaying deals, and the multiple falls to a lower range.
NTNX AI technical analysis
NTNX AI Technical Analysis
NTNX AI technical analysis starts from the $59.01 close on July 31, 2026. Price sits above the 50-day moving average near $51.99 and the 200-day moving average near $49.23, with RSI near 68 and volume below its 20-day average. Use live chart data before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $59.01 | Close on July 31, 2026, used as the reference for this page at the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Near support | $51.99 to $54.30 | The 50-day moving average and the recent bounce zone. Treat as a planning band, not a guaranteed floor. |
| Near resistance | $59.33 to $62.40 | The July 31 session high and the analyst price target cluster. A close above this zone would strengthen short-term momentum. |
| 50-day moving average | $51.99 | From the StockAnalysis statistics page. Use live chart data before acting. |
| 200-day moving average | $49.23 | From the StockAnalysis statistics page. A close below it would signal a weaker trend. |
| Momentum | Uptrend above moving averages | Price is above both key averages after a roughly 16% one-month rebound, but the 52-week trend is down about 23%. |
| Volume | 2.63 million shares | Below the 20-day average of about 3.06 million shares, so the recent move lacks strong volume confirmation. |
| Volatility | High monitoring priority | The 52-week range is $34.01 to $82.42, so position sizing should allow for wide daily moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $51.99 | A decisive close below the 50-day moving average would weaken the near-term setup, with the 200-day average near $49.23 as the next reference. |
NTNX AI trading strategy
NTNX AI Trading Strategy Framework
The NTNX AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. Pair it with position sizing, stop levels, and a fresh check of filings and news.
Trend-following setup
Wait for NTNX to hold above the support band and push through the resistance zone on volume that confirms demand.
A close back below the support band or a failed breakout should invalidate the setup.
Mean-reversion setup
If NTNX pulls back toward the 50-day moving average without a thesis break, compare price action with the next earnings report, balance sheet, and guidance.
Do not average down without a predefined maximum loss and a fresh review of the business risk.
Fundamental monitor
Track the evidence that matters most for Nutanix: annual recurring revenue, revenue growth, operating margin, free cash flow, and competitive position against VMware and the public clouds.
Reduce confidence when price moves are driven by headlines without matching financial evidence.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
Nutanix sells an enterprise cloud platform that virtualizes compute, storage, and networking and adds Kubernetes, database, and desktop services. Customers pay subscriptions and support, and subscription revenue was about $2.61 billion of the $2.75 billion TTM total.
Moat
The moat comes from an integrated software stack, customer switching costs, and subscription renewals. Gross margin is near 87%, but Nutanix competes with VMware and the major public clouds.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis can fail if enterprise IT spending slows, VMware and public cloud competition takes share, supply chain constraints delay deals, or the company cannot convert revenue growth into sustained free cash flow.
Management
Rajiv Ramaswami led the pivot from perpetual licenses to subscriptions and to profitability. Buybacks reached about $696 million over TTM, though stock compensation still diluted share count, and key person risk is present.
Industry trend
Hybrid multicloud and AI infrastructure are long-term trends, but IT budgets are cyclical and enterprises can delay refresh cycles, as the supply chain commentary from Q3 FY2026 shows.
Valuation and margin of safety
At $59.01, the stock priced in high earnings growth with a trailing PE near 62 and a PEG near 2.57. The margin of safety is thin unless growth stays well above the consensus forecast.
Source-backed data
NTNX Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| NTNX price | $59.01 (July 31, 2026 close) | StockAnalysis and Yahoo Finance quote pages | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $15.95 billion, verified as $59.01 x 270.32 million shares (0.01% deviation) | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Exchange | NASDAQ Global Select | StockAnalysis and Nasdaq | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $2.75 billion (up 13.04% year over year) | StockAnalysis financials | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $275.86 million | StockAnalysis financials and Yahoo Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM diluted EPS | $0.96 (StockAnalysis) and $0.95 (Yahoo Finance) | StockAnalysis financials and Yahoo Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | $770.88 million (28.03% FCF margin) | StockAnalysis cash flow statement | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $34.01 to $82.42 | StockAnalysis and Yahoo Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| 50-day and 200-day moving averages | $51.99 and $49.23 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy from 17 analysts, average price target $58.98, range $47 to $65 | StockAnalysis forecast | August 3, 2026 |
Frequently Asked Questions
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This NTNX AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of August 3, 2026, with market data from the July 31, 2026 close. Scenarios may be incomplete and can be wrong if new filings, prices, company events, or macro conditions change.
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